The Middle East conflict

[edwin_m]

Operation Epic Fail.

 

[brad465]

And now the US is imposing a blockade on Iranian ports and transit through the Strait of Hormuz, with the additional twist that the USA will impose a 20% "fee" for ships that do transit:

Source: BBC News

So Trump is using the US navy to run a protection racket.

 

[Mogster]

Does Donny not believe he‘s running out of missiles…?

Incredible.

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/12/politics/us-weapon-stocks-depleted-iran-war

But replenishment rates are low for key missiles, Cancian said — according to current fiscal year delivery schedules, the Pentagon is receiving roughly 15 new Tomahawks and 20 new Patriot missiles per month. There are no THAAD deliveries forecast in 2026. CSIS estimated it would take three or more years to rebuild those inventories to pre-Iran war levels.

Elaine McCusker, an American Enterprise Institute senior fellow who previously served as the Pentagon’s deputy and acting comptroller, told CNN that the “timeline for replenishment of munitions for the most part will be measured in years — two-to-five for most.”

 

[najaB]

Does Donny not believe he‘s running out of missiles…?

Incredible.

And the scary thing (for the US and their allies in the region) is that Iran reportedly still has thousands of missiles and drones as the attacks on the deep storage units didn't actually destroy much.

 

[Cdd89]

Although it's interesting that the US has transitioned to using knock-off Shaheds for their own offensive operations (Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack System, i.e. LUCAS drones, which has to be a backronym for something although I don't know what!).

 

[edwin_m]

Does Donny not believe he‘s running out of missiles…?

Incredible.

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/12/politics/us-weapon-stocks-depleted-iran-war

Maybe why he unexpectedly gave the go-ahead for Ukraine to make some?

 

[ainsworth74]

Does Donny not believe he‘s running out of missiles…?

Incredible.

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/12/politics/us-weapon-stocks-depleted-iran-war

It is certainly interesting watching various chickens come home to roost. It's been obvious for maybe a decade and a half now, probably longer in reality (arguably all the way back to Gulf 1), that rate of production of various smart munitions that always get significant usage (Tomahawk is a the class exemplar) is does not come close to keeping up with likely demand in anything like a protracted conflict and reserves of such weapons are always low. For instance recent reporting in the Navy Times from back in April:

The U.S. Navy is requesting $3 billion to replenish its stockpile of Tomahawk missiles that have been depleted over the course of the Iran war, according to the Defense Department’s fiscal 2027 budget request.

As part of the $1.5 trillion budget request released Friday, the Navy has asked for a 1,200% increase in the number of the long-range land attack missile.

In fiscal 2026, Congress granted the service $257 million for the purchase of 58 Tomahawk missiles.

The Navy is now asking lawmakers to subsidize the production of 785 Tomahawk missiles for a little over $3 billion, including roughly $1.5 billion for Tomahawk missile modifications.

[...]

The Washington Post reported on March 27 that the Pentagon was burning through Tomahawk missiles at an alarming rate, launching at least 850 Tomahawks since the Iran war began on Feb. 28.

US Navy seeks 1,200% increase in Tomahawk missile procurement for 2027

The U.S. Navy is requesting $3 billion to replenish its stockpile of Tomahawk missiles that have been depleted over the course of the Iran war.

www.navytimes.com

So they've used over 850 Tomahawks but the original production for 2026 was supposed to be 58...

Other various munitions suffer similar issues as well. I can't help but suspect that there are some very empty bunkers in the US which must really be starting to worry the Defence Chiefs. This has been an issue that was always likely to rear its head but it really is remarkable that the US is burning its reserves (which it will need years to replenish) on this farcical war...

Maybe why he unexpectedly gave the go-ahead for Ukraine to make some?

Almost certainly. Lockheed Martin have raised production from around 200 per year in 2022 to around 600 per year in 2025:

In 2025, Lockheed Martin delivered 620 units of the Patriot missile. Over the last two years, it has increased production by 60%.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/lockheed-martin-more-than-triple-patriot-missile-production-capacity-2026-01-06/

Though from the same article they are increasing production to 2,000 per year:

Lockheed Martin (LMT.N), opens new tab said on Tuesday that it has reached a seven-year agreement with the U.S. Department of War to increase the annual production capacity for its PAC-3 missile interceptors to 2,000 units a year from about 600 previously.

This is obviously from before the present stupidity during which it's estimated that the US has burned through around half the available stockpile of Patriot missiles which likely represents a least a full year or maybe even two years worth of production...

Patriot​

The Patriot is ground-launched against aircraft, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles. The current version is called the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) with upgraded rockets and guidance technology. Figure 9 includes earlier PAC-3 interceptors procured throughout the 2000s and that remain in the inventory. Up to 400 of the older PAC-2 missiles may also still be in the stockpile but are not included in Figure 9.

​

Note: The shaded area shows the estimated range. Actual use depends heavily on the munitions mix and allied air defense contributions—see the methodological primer for details.
Source: Authors’ calculations based on “Defense Budget Materials,” U.S. Department of Defense, https://comptroller.defense.gov/Budget-Materials/Budget2027/.

Because 18 other countries use the Patriot, these missiles are highly sought after. About half of the annual production goes to support these allies and partners. Ukraine is also a major user, having received more than 600 from the U.S. and other allies over the course of the war.

Lockheed Martin plans to increase annual PAC-3 MSE production to 2,000 by 2030—up from the current 600. Until this increased production becomes available, the United States will face choices on allocating production to meet demands. Pacific-oriented strategists will want the United States to withhold Patriot and other missile production for use in the Western Pacific. Meanwhile, Ukraine would want more interceptors. President Volodymyr Zelensky has pointed out that every Patriot fired in the Middle East is one fewer that Ukraine can acquire. The Swiss have threatened to buy an alternate system after being told its purchase might be delayed. Other U.S. allies are also in the queue.

Last Rounds? Status of Key Munitions at the Iran War Ceasefire

The United States has depleted its missile inventories but still has enough to continue fighting this war under any plausible scenario. The risk is with future wars—particularly against a peer competitor like China.

www.csis.org

That whole article actually covers various munitions and their parlous state.

I cannot help but imagine that if the US can get Ukraine to start making their own missiles, even it takes a few years to spool up production, that can only be helpful in the long run to managing this crunch...

 

[Killingworth]

It is certainly interesting watching various chickens come home to roost. It's been obvious for maybe a decade and a half now, probably longer in reality (arguably all the way back to Gulf 1), that rate of production of various smart munitions that always get significant usage (Tomahawk is a the class exemplar) is does not come close to keeping up with likely demand in anything like a protracted conflict and reserves of such weapons are always low. For instance recent reporting in the Navy Times from back in April:

US Navy seeks 1,200% increase in Tomahawk missile procurement for 2027

The U.S. Navy is requesting $3 billion to replenish its stockpile of Tomahawk missiles that have been depleted over the course of the Iran war.

www.navytimes.com

So they've used over 850 Tomahawks but the original production for 2026 was supposed to be 58...

Other various munitions suffer similar issues as well. I can't help but suspect that there are some very empty bunkers in the US which must really be starting to worry the Defence Chiefs. This has been an issue that was always likely to rear its head but it really is remarkable that the US is burning its reserves (which it will need years to replenish) on this farcical war...



Almost certainly. Lockheed Martin have raised production from around 200 per year in 2022 to around 600 per year in 2025:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/lockheed-martin-more-than-triple-patriot-missile-production-capacity-2026-01-06/

Though from the same article they are increasing production to 2,000 per year:



This is obviously from before the present stupidity during which it's estimated that the US has burned through around half the available stockpile of Patriot missiles which likely represents a least a full year or maybe even two years worth of production...

Last Rounds? Status of Key Munitions at the Iran War Ceasefire

The United States has depleted its missile inventories but still has enough to continue fighting this war under any plausible scenario. The risk is with future wars—particularly against a peer competitor like China.

www.csis.org

That whole article actually covers various munitions and their parlous state.

I cannot help but imagine that if the US can get Ukraine to start making their own missiles, even it takes a few years to spool up production, that can only be helpful in the long run to managing this crunch...

I can hear some saying that a bit more effort, and a lot fewer billions, spent on effective diplomacy might well prevent conflicts from starting and then escalating to this point.

 

[brad465]

I can hear some saying that a bit more effort, and a lot fewer billions, spent on effective diplomacy might well prevent conflicts from starting and then escalating to this point.

This is what Obama did with his Iran Nuclear deal. However Trump's Obama Derangement Syndrome couldn't cope with its existence so Trump tore it up and the rest is history.

 

[Yew]

Whilst replenishment of some platforms is low, and certainly needs improvement, it's worth remembering what American doctrine is though, use high-end standoff munitions to destroy air defences, so that you can use less expensive aircraft and cheaper munitions, as the airspace is less contested.

Similarly, systems like THADD are very high-end systems, you don't want to be spending that money to take out a single Shahed.

 

[najaB]

I cannot help but imagine that if the US can get Ukraine to start making their own missiles, even it takes a few years to spool up production, that can only be helpful in the long run to managing this crunch...

I'm looking forward to the delicious irony of Ukraine supplying the USA with weapons...

Similarly, systems like THADD are very high-end systems, you don't want to be spending that money to take out a single Shahed.

Someone needs to tell the USA that.

 

[Tetchytyke]

I do recall upthread you suggested the US should consider just walking away - I (genuinely!) wonder if that would not have actually been a better approach, i.e. clear off, and leave the Strait of Hormuz as a problem for the international community (specifically excl. the USA) to deal with.

The US had started to walk away, much to the rage of the Israelis.

Iran then decided to re-ignite everything. But I really can't help but wonder whether the re-ignition was a false flag operation. Maybe I'm too cynical in my old age, but the re-ignition suits Israel's interests and goes against Iran's interests. And we know the Mossad are very good at this sort of thing.

 

[ainsworth74]

Iran then decided to re-ignite everything. But I really can't help but wonder whether the re-ignition was a false flag operation. Maybe I'm too cynical in my old age, but the re-ignition suits Israel's interests and goes against Iran's interests. And we know the Mossad are very good at this sort of thing.

I think you give Iran too much credit as a rational actor. Especially for an Iran that has had a large chunk of it's leadership killed and is no doubt dealing with internal power struggles.

 

[najaB]

I think you give Iran too much credit as a rational actor. Especially for an Iran that has had a large chunk of it's leadership killed and is no doubt dealing with internal power struggles.

To be fair, I don't think the USA or Israel have acted even close to rationally either.

 

[Cdd89]

Iran then decided to re-ignite everything. But I really can't help but wonder whether the re-ignition was a false flag operation. Maybe I'm too cynical in my old age, but the re-ignition suits Israel's interests and goes against Iran's interests. And we know the Mossad are very good at this sort of thing.

The root cause is pretty obvious (surely) - Iran demands that all shipping must go via Iran's territorial waters, under the pretext of mines in the Oman side and a "safe route" but actually because doing so maintains their grip on the Strait and gives them some legitimacy to charge tolls in future. The US sort of agreed to/conceded this in the MoU which states that "Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels at no charge for 60 days".

The US doesn't want that and recently began testing Iran's resolve by routing ships via Oman, and it escalated from there. Obvioulsly Iran has no right to attack shipping in Omani waters, but they are already a pariah state with nothing to lose, whereas the US is acting like one and cedeing the moral high ground by randomly threatening tolls of its own.

I don't actually think Iran are acting irationally, but rather in their own self-interest. Given that Gulf states are actively building pipelines to bypass the strait, they only have a fairly small window to capitalise on this before they begin to lose their key (only?) bargaining chip.

 

[Tetchytyke]

To be fair, I don't think the USA or Israel have acted even close to rationally either.

Israel have. The only thing keeping Bibi out of prison is a never-ending war.

As for the US, it's a cliche but follow the money.

don't actually think Iran are acting irationally, but rather in their own self-interest. Given that Gulf states are actively building pipelines to bypass the strait, they only have a fairly small window to capitalise on this before they begin to lose their key (only?) bargaining chip.

Even this bargaining chip only extends so far, though. It alleviates the bombing campaign on Iran because Iran have something they can hit back against. I'm not sure that re-igniting the bombing campaign was in their interests.

But @ainsworth74 does make a good point that there are now a lot of internal factions within the Iranian government all vying for supremacy and not all of them will be acting rationally. I think there will be quite a few within the IRGC who believe their own hubris and genuinely think that they can beat the US and the Israelis.

I'm still cynical about Israel though.

 

[najaB]

Israel have. The only thing keeping Bibi out of prison is a never-ending war.

The person is not the State. I'd argue that Israel has lost a lot more than it has gained since October 7th.

 

[Cdd89]

Even this bargaining chip only extends so far, though. It alleviates the bombing campaign on Iran because Iran have something they can hit back against. I'm not sure that re-igniting the bombing campaign was in their interests.

Well I wonder. I think the US miscalculated that Iran wouldn't actually take action to prevent the US from routing ships via the other side of the Strait, given that there are no tolls [at present] either way and they'd be resuming a war for nothing.

By your assessement the US calculation ought to have been correct, since resuming hostilities is not good for them, but I think Iran is looking at their long-term leverage whereas the US is guided by short-term interests (namely the oil price in the next few months).

 

[martin butler]

This looks like possibly being another endless war, unless the leaders of Israel, Iran and the US, are replaced by saner heads, who are prepared to talk to each other,

We all know that Netanyahu is relying on an endless state of war, to keep him in power, and away from a prison cell, just as Trump needs constant distractions to stop revelations about what he did at certain parties, on a certain island, as well at Maralago, that could also see him in a prison cell,

The Iranian government, I think might if those two players were no longer on the scene, might act a bit more rational and prefer an weary peace to outright war

 

[Tetchytyke]

The person is not the State. I'd argue that Israel has lost a lot more than it has gained since October 7th.

I'm not so sure that it has. Neither Bibi nor the politicians who are keeping him in power particularly care about what the rest of the world thinks about Israel. Israel hasn't lost very much really in the grand scheme of things. If Bibi much cares about the people who were murdered on October 7 he keeps it well hidden.

But what has it gained? It's been allowed to massively expand its illegal settlement programme, it's been allowed to apply even more drastic enforcement against people in the West Bank (especially in Jerusalem). And internationally it has now got the whole of the GCC eating from the palm of its hand.

Oh the UN and the ICC don't much like Israel but who really cares what they think? The ICC leadership- and their friends and families- can't even book a hotel room now because of the US sanctions imposed on them as individuals. Israel are doing what they want and they're getting away with it. They're winning.

I think the US miscalculated that Iran wouldn't actually take action to prevent the US from routing ships via the other side of the Strait, given that there are no tolls [at present] either way and they'd be resuming a war for nothing.

I don't think there is one united position from the US/Israeli side. Israel were deeply unhappy with the agreement the US signed.

My view is that one of two things happened (or possibly even both). Israel talked the US into poking Iran until it reacted, or Israel just did a false flag operation to make it look like Iran had been poked. Look at how Bibi and his allies managed to sink the Oslo Accords. Why change a winning tactic?

 

[brad465]

TACO Tuesday right on cue:

Trump reverses threat of 20% fee on Strait of Hormuz cargo as US prepares to resume Iran ports blockade

The US president says he will replace the planned levy with trade and investment deals with various Gulf states.

www.bbc.co.uk

Trump says he will replace 20% Hormuz toll with Gulf state trade deals
​

Donald Trump says on Truth Social he has decided to "replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States".

"Those Investments will be MASSIVE but, at the same time, extraordinarily good for them, and their future," he writes on the platform.

We'll bring you further details from his post soon.

 

[najaB]

I'm not so sure that it has. Neither Bibi nor the politicians who are keeping him in power particularly care about what the rest of the world thinks about Israel. Israel hasn't lost very much really in the grand scheme of things. If Bibi much cares about the people who were murdered on October 7 he keeps it well hidden.

But what has it gained? It's been allowed to massively expand its illegal settlement programme, it's been allowed to apply even more drastic enforcement against people in the West Bank (especially in Jerusalem). And internationally it has now got the whole of the GCC eating from the palm of its hand.

Oh the UN and the ICC don't much like Israel but who really cares what they think? The ICC leadership- and their friends and families- can't even book a hotel room now because of the US sanctions imposed on them as individuals. Israel are doing what they want and they're getting away with it. They're winning.

Thing is, Israel has only been able to get away with as much as they have for as long as they have because of collective guilt in European capitals, backed up by military support from Washington (Israel has been the largest single recipient of US direct military aid for decades). The problem for them is that between the anti-Semites on the extreme right, and those on the left who are aren't afraid to call out what's happened in Gaza and north Lebanon, the number of people ready to give Israel blind support has significantly shrunk compared to Oct 8th and before.

 

[speedy1]

TACO Tuesday right on cue:

Market manipulation as per.

 

[Tetchytyke]

TACO Tuesday right on cue

He keeps manipulating the stock market and the stock market keeps on letting him.

 

[Mogster]

Speaking to a colleague today who has a friend living in Bahrain. They say that 2/3 of the buildings at the largest US military base there have been destroyed. This doesn’t seem to be being reported in the UK media. I suppose there could be concerns about being accused of offering targeting data to the Iranians.

 

[najaB]

Speaking to a colleague today who has a friend living in Bahrain. They say that 2/3 of the buildings at the largest US military base there have been destroyed. This doesn’t seem to be being reported in the UK media. I suppose there could be concerns about being accused of offering targeting data to the Iranians.

It's been widely whispered that US losses of personnel and materiel have been a lot higher than admitted. Allegedly in the first days of the war, the US bases were not prepared for initial Iranian missile strikes and they took a lot of hits. People noted two things: the US medical facilities in Germany were cleared of non-urgent patients, and there were a higher-than-usual number of C-17 flights from the Middle East to Germany. Make of that what you will.

 

[Annetts key]

Speaking to a colleague today who has a friend living in Bahrain. They say that 2/3 of the buildings at the largest US military base there have been destroyed. This doesn’t seem to be being reported in the UK media. I suppose there could be concerns about being accused of offering targeting data to the Iranians.

Me thinks they (Iran) already know:

• Some drones have video cameras...
• They will have access to some satellite photos (maybe from Russia or China),
• They very likely have operatives in the relevant countries in the middle east.

A lot of what U.K. media reports on, is information that editors consider relevant, and the damage to U.S. bases is not relevant if the U.S. government doesn’t confirm the details. So it's not a meaningful story.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Jul 2026 ==

It's been widely whispered that US losses of personnel and materiel have been a lot higher than admitted. Allegedly in the first days of the war, the US bases were not prepared for initial Iranian missile strikes and they took a lot of hits. People noted two things: the US medical facilities in Germany were cleared of non-urgent patients, and there were a higher-than-usual number of C-17 flights from the Middle East to Germany. Make of that what you will.

Just imagine if all the European NATO member counties told Trump where to go, what that effect would have on U.S. military overseas operations...

 

[Killingworth]

Speaking to a colleague today who has a friend living in Bahrain. They say that 2/3 of the buildings at the largest US military base there have been destroyed. This doesn’t seem to be being reported in the UK media. I suppose there could be concerns about being accused of offering targeting data to the Iranians.

How much of that was months ago and how much recent? What exactly was destroyed? Is the damage materially impeding US efforts? Has it been verified?

 

[edwin_m]

Just imagine if all the European NATO member counties told Trump where to go, what that effect would have on U.S. military overseas operations...

That might just prompt Trump to walk away from NATO.

 

[Tetchytyke]

A lot of what U.K. media reports on, is information that editors consider relevant, and the damage to U.S. bases is not relevant if the U.S. government doesn’t confirm the details. So it's not a meaningful story.

Don't forget that they can also prevent publication under a D-Notice.