Heatwave 22-27 June - effect on the UK Railway

[AndrewE]

We've seen it before when Chiltern experience a large issue which affects stock displacement. Short forms and misforms can continue for 48 hours, although each incremental intervention enacted by control slowly helps to rebalance and redress the fleet position.

Doesn't this tell you something about the level of resourcing of our railway - be that the minimum amount of rolling stock originally planned to be available, which could be the case here, or the amount of stock stopped for "maintenance?" It may be due to engineering staffing shortages so that half the units seem to be in sidings in various places (TfW?)

Whatever, it means that a just-in-time level of resourcing of public transport infrastructure just doesn't work.

 

[800002]

Whatever, it means that a just-in-time level of resourcing of public transport infrastructure just doesn't work.

I prefer the word / phrase 'resilient'.
It just isnt.... in places.

 

[D1537]

My significant other is going to Edinburgh, but stuck at Preston. Doesn’t sound like they’re being told much.

1S69 has just left Lancaster a mere 157 late, and 1S74 has been released from Preston.

 

[Silver Cobra]

One interesting quirk I've noticed since yesterday is that the additional Great Northern Kings Cross - Peterborough services during the peaks have been calling at Arlesey, but no additional calls at Sandy or Hitchin. Is this something they're doing as part of the mitigations for the hot weather? Or is this actually related to the closure of the MML between Bedford and Luton?

 

[D1511]

1S69 has just left Lancaster a mere 157 late, and 1S74 has been released from Preston.

Cue the chorus from Handel's Messiah

 

[225 059-5]

9S70 (EUS 1240 to EDB) left Lancaster 148 late.
We were told this was due to a points failure at Morecambe South Junction.

 

[pokemonsuper9]

(And for the benefit of Northern, cancelling 400 trains is not a resilience plan. The clue is in the name.)

However it is very much Northern's plan.
Happened last time there was a severe wind warning too.

 

[Bald Rick]

I'll chuck something into the mix here.......

CLIMATE RESILIENCE PLANS

Does NR or any of the TOCs actually have adopted CR plans in place?

Yes. Also hot weather olans for days like today, whic( is what I think you mean.

 

[matt]

The track has buckled at Leamington Spa so platform 3 (London bound) is currently out of action and also the up main

 

[D1511]

Yes. Also hot weather olans for days like today, whic( is what I think you mean.

So do they just say we'll cancel X trains, protect Y points and remove all class ZZZs from service? How is that showing resilience and adaptation to our changing climate?

 

[Bald Rick]

So do they just say we'll cancel X trains, protect Y points and remove all class ZZZs from service? How is that showing resilience and adaptation to our changing climate?

That would be the hot weather plan.

The climate plan is something else.

I don’t really understand what you saying.

 

[800002]

So do they just say we'll cancel X trains, protect Y points and remove all class ZZZs from service? How is that showing resilience and adaptation to our changing climate?

That would be the hot weather plan.

The climate plan is something else.

I don’t really understand what you saying.

Allow me to interpret.

(Sir Humphy Appleby time). Yes, and no, minister.

If network rail wish to protect a location / set of points (ie, they won't move them away from normal), this means an operator must remove / retime their operational schedules.
Often it is easier to simply remove.


If NR wishes to attempt to maintain operation resilience on busy infrastructure, this will normally mean a reduction in train service.
(Ie, if speed must be reduced at short notice, there needs to be less trains in tbe system / on the network to maintain resilience and operability of the network).
Trains get cancelled.

The last point of removing all class ZZZ from service. I assume refers to removing a type of rollingstock from service as opposed to a group of services or class of service (class 1 express / class 2 ordinary).
If an operators rolling stock is susceptible to failure or internal heat problems (overwhelmed/ failed air con or HVAC) then for safety reasons the operator may choose not to operate it.
Of there is no other suitable rolling stock to employ then regrettably, the service gets cancelled.

If the operator cannot operate to set safety standards/ requirements i think we would all complain more if we were allowed to use those services. (My own opinion). But if the resultant overcrowding results in similar unsafe / less ideal situations occurring then we need to consider if running a train service in its entirety is warranted.
(Other viewers may disagree).

 

[D1511]

That would be the hot weather plan.

The climate plan is something else.

I don’t really understand what you saying.

Never mind.
I think I recall a previous discussion on learning after major incidents, and emergency planning exercises, but nothing ever changes.
I doubt there is any long term costed planning for climate change on the railway at all.

 

[800002]

Never mind.
I think I recall a previous discussion on learning after major incidents, and emergency planning exercises, but nothing ever changes.
I doubt there is any long term costed planning for climate change on the railway at all.

I think you mean, for heat / coldness.

Climate change or its resultant storms / weathering events are well documented in areas such as Dawlish and its sea wall resilience programme (if one subscribes to that area of climate change impacting weather patterns as a whole).

 

[Bald Rick]

I doubt there is any long term costed planning for climate change on the railway at all.

There is, but it’s a big subject.

 

[brad465]

National Rail Enquiries has now updated travel advice with revised alternative travel arrangements. Friday 26th is now covered under "only travel if absolutely necessary" where travel includes the amber warning area on Friday (London and Eastern England). They've also relaxed travel plan revisions to allow one to travel up to and including Tuesday 30th June for those holding tickets up to and including Friday 26th):

Incident: Hot weather | National Rail

Hot weather may affect your journey in England and Wales today: please check before you travel. Find details of all current incidents on National Rail Enquiries.

www.nationalrail.co.uk

Description​

The Met Office are advising that heatwave conditions are forecast for parts of England and Wales with temperatures expected to remain high until at least Saturday 27 June.

The hot weather is set to be widespread over England and Wales, and highs of up to 38°C are possible in some areas this week. There are red and amber weather warnings in place for extreme heat covering parts of England and Wales until Saturday 27 June.

If you are travelling on Wednesday 24 or Thursday 25 June to, from or within the red weather warning zone, please only travel if absolutely necessary. On Friday 26 June, only travel if absolutely necessary if travelling to, from or within the amber weather warning area.

The red weather warning zone can be found on the Met Office website. This may change throughout the week so please do check it and the Journey Planner before making any decisions on travel.

Alterations, easements and advice:​

If you hold a ticket for travel on Tuesday 23 June, Wednesday 24 June, Thursday 25 June or Friday 26 June you can use it instead to travel any day up to and including Tuesday 30 June. This will be at no extra cost to you and you will not need to change your ticket.

You can also use your ticket to travel earlier in the day - we recommend doing so before 12:00 midday when the temperatures are likely to be slightly cooler. You'll need to keep within the restrictions of your ticket - for example, if you hold an off-peak ticket, please travel only on earlier off-peak trains. If you hold an advance ticket for a specific train operator, you can use this on earlier services with the same operator.

If you decided not to travel on 23 June, or wish not to travel on 24, 25 or 26 June, you can claim a full refund with no admin fee charged. You can apply for a refund via the retailer you originally purchased your ticket from. Please apply for your refund within 28 days.

For season ticket holders, your usual Delay Repay arrangements will apply.

I'm pleased this is now the case, not just because Friday is not ideal for travel everywhere in the UK, but also trying to cram 2-3 days of "Don't travel unless necessary" into 1 day, on top of those who already plan to travel that day, is a recipe for trouble.

 

[D1511]

The last point of removing all class ZZZ from service. I assume refers to removing a type of rollingstock from service as opposed to a group of services or class of service (class 1 express / class 2 ordinary).
If an operators rolling stock is susceptible to failure or internal heat problems (overwhelmed/ failed air con or HVAC) then for safety reasons the operator may choose not to operate it.
Of there is no other suitable rolling stock to employ then regrettably, the service gets cancelled.

Thank you for stepping in!
If this is the case, then where is the costed plan that says that we need to replace all these units that can't operate in hot weather? I read somewhere else in a thread on this forum that some units' cabs have a design outdoor temp of 30C. They are clearly no use whatsoever going forward.
Similarly on the points issue, if highway authorities are changing what roads and bridges are made of because of temperatures increasing, where's the plan to replace those points with ones that work in more extreme temperatures?
This will be the new norm, and the railway needs to get it's act together.

 

[Bald Rick]

They are clearly no use whatsoever going forward.

They are for about 355 days a year. They will be replaced when life expired; there will simply not be a case to replace years early because of hot weather a few days a year. Which units do you mean anyway?

Similarly on the points issue, if highway authorities are changing what roads and bridges are made of because of temperatures increasing, where's the plan to replace those points with ones that work in more extreme temperatures?

All points are intended to work in the temperatures we are experiencing this week.

 

[D1511]

They are for about 355 days a year. They will be replaced when life expired; there will simply not be a case to replace years early because of hot weather a few days a year. Which units do you mean anyway?



All points are intended to work in the temperatures we are experiencing this week.

Thank you, I appreciate you engaging, but it does raise a few points. The fact is, it's no longer just a few days every year.....it's an increasing number of days every year. What's the threshold for the case to crystallise?? 30 days? 40? Because that's where we're heading, and probably before the units are life expired. It's certainly not any kind of plan.
And your remark about the points is interesting. Why has NR taken the action they have? Precaution? Because they don't actually know if they'll perform as specified?

 

[800002]

Thank you for stepping in!

Occasionally I feel the need.

If this is the case, then where is the costed plan that says that we need to replace all these units that can't operate in hot weather?

Please remember that some of these units were designed many years ago when weather was perhaps less 'extreme'.
I don't know for certain, having not participated in such procurement activities. But every spec and capability is built into the order.

Did you have a particular type / class of rollingstock in mind?
(Details always help direct conversation and help dispatch unhelpful speculation).

Similarly on the points issue, if highway authorities are changing what roads and bridges are made of because of temperatures increasing, where's the plan to replace those points with ones that work in more extreme temperatures?

Please also bear in mind with one, and the previous one too, that such interventions cost money.
The tax payers fund both track and train and such interventions should be fully funded/ cost benefit assessed.
This week or two (cumulatively over a year) will still likely cost much less than the capital expenditure required to allow such activities (running trains) to operate in such extreme temperatures. [Till such a time when the extreme weather is the absolute norm].

I agree it's not the best situation but it's the funding model we have right now.

This will be the new norm, and the railway needs to get it's act together.

Let's hold that can of worms for another debate, Sir / Madam.

Alas, we don't appear to have had a government capable of thinking beyond it's current mortality of its leader to be focused enough or able enough to deliver such foresight.

We must live with the system currently in force.
So much talk of the railway holding it's own destiny is a fallacy l, and had been for many many years. (Sad face emoji).

Thank you for stepping in!

I re-quote, with my apologies as I feel somewhat would prefer i didn't speak so liberally.

I thank you, however, for asking the questions.
Im sorry if the answers disappoint or lead to more questions.

 

[Bald Rick]

The fact is, it's no longer just a few days every year.....it's an increasing number of days every year.

This year has been particualrly bad, we are in day 3 of our second spell of heat. But last year, how many days were the (unspecified) units taken out of service due to forecast temperatures?

Why has NR taken the action they have? Precaution? Because they don't actually know if they'll perform as specified?

I explained upthread. Because it is known that there will be increased failures and incidents in the heat. There are only so many reponse teams avaiable. By restricting some sets of less important points, they can’t fail, which means they won’t need to be responded to immediately. This allows the response teams to focus on failures that matter more, if and when they happen.

It’s not just NR that does it. Other railways around the world do too.

 

[800002]

The track has buckled at Leamington Spa so platform 3 (London bound) is currently out of action and also the up main

Perfect illustration of why NR wanted to reduce risk by reducing the volume of services.

Quite an interesting picture I believe.
Looks quite dramatic apparently.

 

[Benjwri]

Thank you, I appreciate you engaging, but it does raise a few points. The fact is, it's no longer just a few days every year.....it's an increasing number of days every year. What's the threshold for the case to crystallise?? 30 days? 40? Because that's where we're heading, and probably before the units are life expired. It's certainly not any kind of plan.

This is roaming into the territory of government policy though. NR simply dont have the money to do it outside the renewal spend, and it looks like even that may be cut in future control periods.

 

[800002]

This is roaming into the territory of government policy though. NR simply dont have the money to do it outside the renewal spend, and it looks like even that may be cut in future control periods.

It's going to come down to value for money vs risk calculations.

 

[Benjwri]

It's going to come down to value for money vs risk calculations.

That but also HM Treasury has a severe aversion to spending money upfront to prevent future spend. I'm sure the potential of cancelled trains, even if very high, to them is far preferential to spending money on early renewals.

 

[dosxuk]

Eurostar have also now binned off a load of services tomorrow.

Source - the text messages me and colleagues have received to inform us our services have been cancelled

 

[800002]

That but also HM Treasury has a severe aversion to spending money upfront to prevent future spend. I'm sure the potential of cancelled trains, even if very high, to them is far preferential to spending money on early renewals.

I would align with your viewpoint.

Probably best to leave it there for fear of verging off-topic.

 

[Sonic1234]

I'm sure the potential of cancelled trains, even if very high, to them is far preferential to spending money on early renewals.

A lot of times you'll be pushing people off of trains into highly-taxed driving, which HM Treasury will love.

 

[WillC]

Eurostar have also now binned off a load of services tomorrow.

Am still only seeing the two cancelled earlier in the week?

 

[Krokodil]

Conwy valley line closed all day tomorrow. Will seem odd to many when it's been running perfect (an assumption based on RTT) for the last two days while it's been roasting and locally, it's forecast to be a fair bit cooler tomorrow.

Hotter down towards Blaenau but not above what we've had (at least at the north end of the line) for the last two days.

Reminds me of something last winter, when the trains were running during snowfall that crippled the roads, then were preemptively cancelled a few days later for predicted snowfall that never really materialised.

Certainly does seem odd, I've just looked at the weather for Betws Y Coed tomorrow and can see a maximum of 28, which while hot, isn't unusual.

I wonder if there is another reason behind it?

The unit has been poached in order to use elsewhere (stuff like covering for Mk4s). The Wrexham shuttle has been curtailed for similar reasons. Only a few morning services went to Birmingham, on the basis that 158s don't cope well with hot weather and WMT's 196s can get people there instead.

But am I right in thinking you can't have one driver running a shuttle repeatedly for safety reasons? ie you can't have one driver on a Chester - Crewe shuttle all day, it's one trip max then onto something else?

Avanti have such a restriction, TfW don't in the north - there used to be a Sunday turn with 13 Llandudnos. The Cardiff Bay line may have a trip limit.