Heatwave 22-27 June - effect on the UK Railway

[Snow1964]

TfW seem to have decided the hot weather will affect Penarth area until Sunday evening

Due to forecasted severe weather between Coryton (COY) and Penarth (PEN):
Services will be cancelled in both directions between Heath Low Level (HLL) and Penarth (PEN).
We expect the incident to last until 20:00 on 27/06/2026 and disruption to services is expected from 05:00 on 22/06/2026 until 20:00 on 27/06/2026.

What's Happened?
Hot weather has been forecast

Homepage | Transport for Wales

Transport for Wales | Buy Cheap Train Tickets and Check Train Times

tfw.wales

Seems a bit excessive, and more a can't be bothered to run a service for 7 days attitude, rather than just affecting hottest days, is this the longest disruption so far ?

 

[800001]

05:48 New St - Stansted this morning was cancelled due to the extreme weather but that didn't stop the following service running. It did in fact run but only as far as Leicester then returned to Birmingham at 06:17, a service that XC claimed had originally been cancelled before being reinstated. All very strange and leaves me wondering if these conditions are/will be used as an excuse to cancel services that have no crews.

Most likely a unit diagram cancelled from start to finish rather than having to do adhoc moves to clear units from stations

 

[Bikeman78]

I think the Meto warnings are a mess. There are so many yellow warnings in winter - in effect just a bit of heavy rain, or quite windy - it’s pointless, and just serves to create a background hum of fear.

That sums up the UK. I don't know why the government seems to want people too live in fear. Constantly worrying about things usually has little or no impact on the outcome.

 

[Coolzac]

That sums up the UK. I don't know why the government seems to want people too live in fear. Constantly worrying about things usually has little or no impact on the outcome.

I think it's a desire to ensure that the authorities are never accused of being taken off guard by the weather. However, too much caution leads to people ignoring the warnings - therefore when people actually do need to heed serious warnings many don't as there has been too much crying wolf!

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think it's a desire to ensure that the authorities are never accused of being taken off guard by the weather. However, too much caution leads to people ignoring the warnings - therefore when people actually do need to heed serious warnings many don't as there has been too much crying wolf!

Agree. I do think the "yellow warning" is a little unhelpful - only from Amber upwards does one really need to pay attention.

 

[MikeWM]

The Met Office has - finally - issued an amber warning for much of the east of England for Friday, and for a slightly smaller proportion of the east of England on Saturday. If we're basing policies such as what public transport is running on such things, they need to be quicker than this. It was very clear when I posted to this thread on Monday evening that Friday was going to be very hot in the east, it shouldn't take the Met Office 36 hours longer than me to work that out.

Yes, the humidity is likely to (fairly slowly) drop to something rather more normal starting from Friday lunchtime, but there will still be wide-spread effects from high-30s heat, especially as Thursday night looks likely to be the warmest in many years for a large proportion of the country.

 

[Russel]

Given the extension to Friday, do we expect ticket easement to extent from Thursday into Friday also?

 

[WillC]

On the cancellation and refund front, Eurostar are only offering to rearrange travel dates, rather than refund tickets. Granted they seem to be running most services but the carnage with connections surely makes a case for being reasonable? Or maybe not.

 

[styles]

Agree. I do think the "yellow warning" is a little unhelpful - only from Amber upwards does one really need to pay attention.

Agreed. I don't think I've ever changed my plans based on a yellow weather warning. At best I have anticipated some minor disruption, but nothing drastically worse than a typical day really. At a push I might avoid towing a trailer when there's a yellow wind warning out!

 

[Hophead]

Given the extension to Friday, do we expect ticket easement to extent from Thursday into Friday also?

I visited my local Southern station earlier to enquire about a refund given both they & GWR are advising against travel, though GWR (but not apparently Southern) are allowing tickets to be used on Friday. I was told that most train operators (including Southern) were allowing delayed travel and they showed me they had an A4 bulletin to that effect. I did ask if I could take a photo for proof if challenged, but I was told that they weren't allowed to share the document! They naturally didn't know what would happen if the red warning was extended.

I really don't know why the rail industry finds it so hard to provide simple information to guide passengers in times of disruption.

=======

And an edit to update: if you look at the overview National Rail warning, it clearly says that, for travel in the red zone, you can delay travel till Friday. But, the advice page for TSGN doesn't mention that at all!

 

[TheLastMinute]

Agree. I do think the "yellow warning" is a little unhelpful - only from Amber upwards does one really need to pay attention.

The Met Office has - finally - issued an amber warning for much of the east of England for Friday, and for a slightly smaller proportion of the east of England on Saturday. If we're basing policies such as what public transport is running on such things, they need to be quicker than this. It was very clear when I posted to this thread on Monday evening that Friday was going to be very hot in the east, it shouldn't take the Met Office 36 hours longer than me to work that out.

Yes, the humidity is likely to (fairly slowly) drop to something rather more normal starting from Friday lunchtime, but there will still be wide-spread effects from high-30s heat, especially as Thursday night looks likely to be the warmest in many years for a large proportion of the country.

I'm not being critical of either of these two posts as they are both valid points of view, but they are the perfect example of why, whatever the Met Office does, they just can't win. @Bletchleyite says Yellow warnings are unhelpful, while @MikeWM says a Yellow warning should have been posted on Monday for Friday!

Note that issuing an Amber warning for Friday eariler propably wasn't done as there was more model uncertainity around Friday's tempatures and impacts. At the beginging of the week, the modules suggested that the less hot air would move west to east faster than what is now expected.

The Met Office's warning system is intended for the general public so that potental impacts can be easily communited. Network Rail, TOCs, and indeed anyone who manages weather related risk and who operates at scale will use speciailist weather services to provide them with customised forcasts that focus on their partioialr requirements and risks.

Agreed. I don't think I've ever changed my plans based on a yellow weather warning. At best I have anticipated some minor disruption, but nothing drastically worse than a typical day really. At a push I might avoid towing a trailer when there's a yellow wind warning out!

I think I'd agree with this. Personally, I think the problem is that a Yellow warning covers both a high-probably, low-impact event and a low-probably, high-impact event. They are very different things. Both event types to need commincating.

For example, there was some river flooding in south wales a year or two back caused by heavy rainfall that had a low-probably, high-impact type Yellow alert, but because it was 'only' a Yellow and the fact that NRW hadn't issued a flood warning, the warning wasn't paid much attention until the water as at people's front door. Perhaps an additional "Weather Watch" type of alert is needed.

 

[Russel]

I visited my local Southern station earlier to enquire about a refund given both they & GWR are advising against travel, though GWR (but not apparently Southern) are allowing tickets to be used on Friday. I was told that most train operators (including Southern) were allowing delayed travel and they showed me they had an A4 bulletin to that effect. I did ask if I could take a photo for proof if challenged, but I was told that they weren't allowed to share the document! They naturally didn't know what would happen if the red warning was extended.

I really don't know why the rail industry finds it so hard to provide simple information to guide passengers in times of disruption.

I have tickets booked to travel to Colchester via London on Friday but now the warning has been extended to cover Friday too, I'm hoping ticket easements are extended into Saturday to allow me to travel when it's cooler.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

More likely I'd think that more crews are calling in sick. It is quite hot - yesterday I was driving to Bicester and saw a Stagecoach X5 stopped in a layby with what looked like the driver (the colours were right for Stagecoach uniform) standing bent over in front of the bus vomiting, presumably from heatstroke.

With all the passengers on watching? Poor, poor guy, I'd be mortified. This is genuinely upsetting to think of.

 

[styles]

I think I'd agree with this. Personally, I think the problem is that a Yellow warning covers both a high-probably, low-impact event and a low-probably, high-impact event. They are very different things. Both event types to need commincating. For example, there was some river flooding in south wales a year or two back caused by heavy rainfall that had a low-probably, high-impact type Yellow alert, but because it was 'only' a Yellow, it wasn't paid much attention. Perhaps an additional "Weather Watch" type of alert is needed.

I think that's a fair observation.

Personally I would prefer to see both likelihood and potential impact, but I appreciate there's a need for simplicity when communicating with tens of millions of people and trying to get a simple message out quickly. In my mind - yellow = some things might go slightly wrong and be inconvenient; amber = you should consider what you've got planned for the day and see if it needs adjusting; red = there's a good chance that you'll need to change plans so think carefully about what you do that day.

 

[Bow Fell]

TfW seem to have decided the hot weather will affect Penarth area until Sunday evening

Homepage | Transport for Wales

Transport for Wales | Buy Cheap Train Tickets and Check Train Times

tfw.wales

Seems a bit excessive, and more a can't be bothered to run a service for 7 days attitude, rather than just affecting hottest days, is this the longest disruption so far ?

It’s nothing to do with can’t be bothered, there are critical parts of infrastructure and I suspect this is allows points to kept in certain positions at Cogan Junction and Heath Junction. This allows Rhymney and Barry / Bridgend services to continue unaffected in the case of a points failure.

Like it or not, there is a route strategy for lines in the UK and there is a contingency agreed between NR and the TOC’s that certain routes are “abandoned” in such cases of extreme weather.

Edit: Sorry I can see it’s just the Coryton route abandoned in this to protect Heath Junction.

 

[D1537]

Agree. I do think the "yellow warning" is a little unhelpful - only from Amber upwards does one really need to pay attention.

Also, it's too blunt an instrument. Here in North Yorkshire, we have the generally flat Vale of Mowbray butted up against the Cleveland Hills and Yorkshire Moors one side and the Dales on the other, so weather conditions can be wildly different only a few miles away from each other, yet the coloured warnings are generally a massive blob of yellow or orange covering the whole county.

 

[IlkleyRunner]

I think that's a fair observation.

Personally I would prefer to see both likelihood and potential impact, but I appreciate there's a need for simplicity when communicating with tens of millions of people and trying to get a simple message out quickly. In my mind - yellow = some things might go slightly wrong and be inconvenient; amber = you should consider what you've got planned for the day and see if it needs adjusting; red = there's a good chance that you'll need to change plans so think carefully about what you do that day.

They do actually show the matrix if you click through on the website to the specific warnings. For example the current amber is high impact and one from the top of very likely. Saturday's has the same likelihood but one off the highest impact. The Met Office did some research years ago on what people would understand (the % likelihood of rain was the one they were thinking of adding - which is now there but it's taken about 25 years...) Their basic conclusion was the great British public are too clueless to understand probabilities... So I'm not surprised they don't push the matrix more.

 

[MikeWM]

I'm not being critical of either of these two posts as they are both valid points of view, but they are the perfect example of why, whatever the Met Office does, they just can't win. @Bletchleyite says Yellow warnings are unhelpful, while @MikeWM says a Yellow warning should have been posted on Monday for Friday!

Note that issuing an Amber warning for Friday eariler propably wasn't done as there was more model uncertainity around Friday's tempatures and impacts. At the beginging of the week, the modules suggested that the less hot air would move west to east faster than what is now expected.

I agree there would be criticism *whatever* they do, so I do have some sympathy. And actually I'd get rid of yellow warnings too, I don't think they are especially helpful - I think Friday should have gone amber yesterday.

I'd say there was far clearer reason to issue an amber for Friday on Tuesday morning than there was to issue an amber for Monday last Friday (three day gap for each). While earlier last week Monday looked really hot, by last Friday it was pretty clear that Monday wasn't going to be exceptional for most of the country, in either heat or humidity, compared with yesterday/today/tomorrow. Maybe the weekend was a factor in pushing the amber out on Friday?

Either way, you've got a lot of people who have effectively been told to avoid travelling Wednesday and Thursday and it will be fine to travel Friday instead, which is clearly being shown to be increasingly poor advice. How much of that we want to blame the Met Office for is perhaps not clear

 

[cheekybifta]

It’s nothing to do with can’t be bothered, there are critical parts of infrastructure and I suspect this is allows points to kept in certain positions at Cogan Junction and Heath Junction. This allows Rhymney and Barry / Bridgend services to continue unaffected in the case of a points failure.

Like it or not, there is a route strategy for lines in the UK and there is a contingency agreed between NR and the TOC’s that certain routes are “abandoned” in such cases of extreme weather.

Edit: Sorry I can see it’s just the Coryton route abandoned in this to protect Heath Junction.

I wonder if the Conwy Valley line closure is also points related. I think I heard that was a big part of the pre-emptive winter closure, when the Llandudno branch section was also closed presumably allowing the points at Llandudno Junction to be kept in position.

Today, the Llandudno branch is still open to other services, but nothing is going up the valley. Theoretically, you could run a shuttle from Llandudno Junction to Llandudno without crossing the main lines, if you had the rolling stock and crew in place. But am I right in thinking you can't have one driver running a shuttle repeatedly for safety reasons? ie you can't have one driver on a Chester - Crewe shuttle all day, it's one trip max then onto something else?

Has a decent way to view TfW disruptions come about since they stopped using JourneyCheck? I know we get what formed the incidents part on the TfW website and National Rail website, and delays/cancellations to services show up in journey planners, but I've never found anything to replicate that list of each service with announced cancellations or delays. The live map remains near useless and doesn't even show the disruption incidents from the TfW website properly, ie it's currently showing Wrexham - Chester running as normal whereas the TfW website has a cancellations warning up for Wrexham - Chester.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Llandudno services including hourly shuttles are running.

 

[TheLastMinute]

They do actually show the matrix if you click through on the website to the specific warnings. For example the current amber is high impact and one from the top of very likely. Saturday's has the same likelihood but one off the highest impact. The Met Office did some research years ago on what people would understand (the % likelihood of rain was the one they were thinking of adding - which is now there but it's taken about 25 years...) Their basic conclusion was the great British public are too clueless to understand probabilities... So I'm not surprised they don't push the matrix more.

There's also the Met Office's YouTube channel, which is a must watch for anyone with more than passing interest in the weather.

As well as the thirce daily forecast videos, there's a weekly "deep dive" that explains why the weather is doing what it is, a weekly live Q&A, a twice-weekly 10-day trend forcast plus lots of explainer videos. They also do live Q&As when there is a signifncant weather event, like the heat this week. You certainly can't acsure them of not trying to commincate, but the fact of the matter is that 99.9% of the great British pubic just aren't that bothered about the complexities and suitities of weather forcasting. It's far easier to just look at raw, unmodified model output on apps and blame the forcasters when the single icon for the day doesn't match what the weather is doing at that moment.

 

[notspy]

Major disruption for TPE services, failed freight train at Mirfield and points failure Guide Bridge, whether this is due to the hot weather I’m not sure but it seems likely.

 

[dk1]

Crosscountry frequently cancels trains between Cardiff and Birmingham New Street due to lack of train crew, and today it has taken the opportunity to cancel every service, claiming it is due to the extreme weather.

Operationally it’s the best route for XC to cancel in times of disruption as the route has alternatives usually with one easy change of train.

 

[WillC]

I think that's a fair observation.

Personally I would prefer to see both likelihood and potential impact, but I appreciate there's a need for simplicity when communicating with tens of millions of people and trying to get a simple message out quickly. In my mind - yellow = some things might go slightly wrong and be inconvenient; amber = you should consider what you've got planned for the day and see if it needs adjusting; red = there's a good chance that you'll need to change plans so think carefully about what you do that day.

Agree, with caveat that the yellow situation is really 'just life' - be aware, view the forecast, make your own choice about a coat. No need to create unnecessary fear and media noise. Focus should be on things that are likely to make a significant impact and that are quite unusual.

 

[MikeWM]

It's far easier to just look at raw, unmodified model output on apps and blame the forcasters when the single icon for the day doesn't match what the weather is doing at that moment.

It is, of course - but the warnings aren't really for me anyway, as I'm very much an amateur but know enough to look at the models and work out the likely impact for myself.

I'm more concerned about the railway (and other institutions) putting too much stock in the raw warnings and not doing their own work. Maybe they don't lean on them as much as they appear to, but the communications from the public-facing parts of the railway imply that they are the main driver. Here's the full, verbatim current advice on NR:

---
The Met Office are advising that heatwave conditions are forecast for parts of England and Wales with temperatures expected to remain high until at least Saturday 27 June.

The hot weather is set to be widespread over England and Wales, and highs of up to 38°C are possible in some areas this week. There are red and amber weather warnings in place for extreme heat covering parts of England and Wales until Saturday 27 June.

The amber weather warning has been extended to cover parts of England on Friday 26 and Saturday 27 June. We are working hard to understand the impact on customer journeys - please check back later today for more information

If you are travelling on Wednesday 24 or Thursday 25 June to, from or within the red weather warning zone, please only travel if absolutely necessary.

The red weather warning zone can be found on the Met Office website. This may change throughout the week so please do check it and the Journey Planner before making any decisions on travel.
---
(bold mine)

That really makes it appear that the state of amber/red warnings are the key driver of what NR are planning, the bolded paragraph in particular.

 

[Snow1964]

It’s nothing to do with can’t be bothered, there are critical parts of infrastructure and I suspect this is allows points to kept in certain positions at Cogan Junction and Heath Junction. This allows Rhymney and Barry / Bridgend services to continue unaffected in the case of a points failure.

Like it or not, there is a route strategy for lines in the UK and there is a contingency agreed between NR and the TOC’s that certain routes are “abandoned” in such cases of extreme weather.

Edit: Sorry I can see it’s just the Coryton route abandoned in this to protect Heath Junction.

Ok, accept your explanation, but doesn't explain why Heath Junction needs protecting, but points at Barry can continue to be used.

The only logical answer would be Heath Junction is known to be more fragile, but nothing has been done to match standard of those other nearby points that can still be used. A sort of allowing some equipment to be unsuitable for all weathers sort of answer if not expected to be usable until Sunday evening.

 

[mike57]

Personally I would prefer to see both likelihood and potential impact,

So I'm not surprised they don't push the matrix more

I suggested the following a few years ago, as most people understand the concept of pie charts...


The symbols could be used on all maps and forecasts, but they (MetO) seem very invested in the current system and fail to see its shortcomings. In reality you would probably only use the two highest Yellow symbols.

 

[Bald Rick]

The only logical answer would be Heath Junction is known to be more fragile, but nothing has been done to match standard of those other nearby points that can still be used. A sort of allowing some equipment to be unsuitable for all weathers sort of answer if not expected to be usable until Sunday evening.

No, it’s to prioritise resources to where they will have the biggest impact in the event of failures (which are inevitable, as we have seen).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Jun 2026 ==

Thanks for that . If the temperatures are correct over the next 2 days . Is track buckling something that could happen . I realise it depends on other conditions .

Yes, but it is rare. Although we can and do get buckles at much lower temperatures.

 

[BanburyBlue]

Just been on a very toasty trip to London from High Wycombe. The do not travel warnings seems to have not had much effect as the few trains that were running were overcrowded and dangerously warm. Not having a train going north from Marylebone in almost an hour then the next train only being 3 coaches is just plain stupid

I'm a bit confused by it - Chiltern saying 'do not travel' but still showing special 'Harry Styles' timetable.
I would have assumed that the reduced timetable would have meant longer trains.
And further assumed that perhaps trains timetabled to run slower to reduce impact on infrastructure, but that doesn't seem to be the case either.

 

[paulmch]

More likely I'd think that more crews are calling in sick.

The impact of extreme heat on traincrew is definitely an underappreciated aspect of disruption on days like this. Some shifts at my depot start at 3am, so in order to be rested properly a driver will need to be in bed at 6 or 7 the previous evening, which is no mean feat when the temperature is still over 30 degrees!