18/6/2026 by-elections - including Makerfield

[thenorthern]

Some in the Green Party have suggested they might win the area. Given it's not the kind of area that the Green Party do well in I think they were getting a bit carried away there.

Realistically, it will either be Labour or Reform who win.

If and as I say IF Burnham does win it will be interesting what happens in Manchester as given how things stand I am not sure Labour would win a Greater Manchester Mayoral election.

Unless anyone can come up with another example, got to be the first time that a by-election has been called with the intention to allow someone to challenge for the post of Prime Minister during the course of a parliament.

If Burnham doesn't win it will be egg on face for him, and just as humiliating for Josh Simons who stood down to allow it all to happen.

Only other similar time was Leyton in 1965 but that was for the Foreign Secretary.

 

[Kite159]

My 10p will be on a Reform victory on a low turnout.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

It is not the case that the Labour MP for Makerfield when elected would have given the opinion to his constituents that he would act full term on behalf of them in matters pertaining to local matters. One could imagine illness being a reason for standing down, but to stand down purely for the reason to enable a new Labour candidate to be elected for extraneous reasons totally unconnected for the political well-being of the constituency in the remaining part-term of office when that candidate is far more likely to devote time and energy in preparing for matters leading up his personal challenge for the leadership of the Labour party.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 May 2026 ==

If and as I say IF Burnham does win it will be interesting what happens in Manchester as given how things stand I am not sure Labour would win a Greater Manchester Mayoral election.

Does there have to be a new mayoral election for Greater Manchester to elect a replacement for Burnham prior to the Makerfield by-election? Has Burnham stated when his mayoral term will end?

 

[nw1]

I would vote Reform purely out of spite for Labour's manoeuvring.

So being subjected to Reform's politics is less bad than Labour's political games?
Parties (Labour, Tory and other) have played political games since time immemorial. This is nothing new, just standard politician behaviour. But in recent history we've never had the risk of a party as far from the centre as Reform getting into power.

I really can't understand how people take the risk of Reform doing well quite so flippantly. Do people actually want a cheap imitation Trump government in power: IMO likely to be every bit as nasty as the Trump government, but with less political clout.

In particular, if people think that Labour's political games are worse, morally, than Reform's whole attitude, it shows how screwed up the morals and ethics of the UK are. Are all these people that tolerate Reform oblivious to Trump's war? Trump's tariffs? Trump's hardline authoritarianism at home? The vicious public service cuts under Trump? Do we really want that here, just so we can "Stop The Boats (TM)", get "Starmer Out (TM)", shut those who want to restore good relations with the EU up forever, and stop trans women using women's toilets? If so, the UK is seriously screwed.

Also, look into the kind of things their candidate has come out with, all from the Observer:
Reform candidate for Makerfield by-election calls abortion ‘cowardly murder’

In a series of now-deleted tweets from one account, Kenyon made anti-abortion comments. Responding to a post by the comedian John Cleese, Kenyon said: “Don’t dole out the ‘what if someone is raped by their brother’ arguement [sic]. Life begins at conception. Abortion is the cowardly act of murdering a defenceless baby and not having to face up to it cause a Dr did it. They don’t want babies? Use contreception! [sic]”

In other posts he also claimed that people advocating the right to choose were “usually the lefty crowd”, adding: “Because the left are actually evil.”
Meanwhile, his Facebook connections suggest Kenyon has had links with senior figures on the far right, including Gary Raikes, leader of the New British Union. He was also Facebook friends with former BNP members Alex Eversfield and Robert Baggs.

ion. He was also Facebook friends with former BNP members Alex Eversfield and Robert Baggs.

He repeatedly made derogatory, sometimes sexual, remarks about high-profile women, including the Labour MP Emily Thornberry and television presenter Carol Vorderman; called Labour “the party for [derogatory term removed]”; and used homophobic comments about male rugby players.

 

[gabrielhj07]

“Subjected to Reform’s politics” is a fair amount of hyperbole, and is probably overstating the importance of a constituency MP. Speaking of which, they couldn’t do much worse than stand a candidate who’s express intention is to not represent his area.

Labour’s behaviour is incredibly arrogant and I hope the voters punish them accordingly.

 

[nw1]

“Subjected to Reform’s politics” is a fair amount of hyperbole, and is probably overstating the importance of a constituency MP. Speaking of which, they couldn’t do much worse than stand a candidate who’s express intention is to not represent his area.

Labour’s behaviour is incredibly arrogant and I hope the voters punish them accordingly.

This attitude is IMO misguided and potentially very dangerous. Are you quite comfortable with a Reform Government in three years' time? Because if we tolerate them by not voting against them at every opportunity, this is what we're going to get. We must not normalise them; that is the real risk when it comes to the next General Election.

Also, look into the kind of things their candidate has come out with, all from the Observer. Looks like full-on MAGA to me.

Reform candidate for Makerfield by-election calls abortion ‘cowardly murder’

Reform UK’s candidate in the Makerfield byelection called abortion a “cowardly act of murdering a defenceless baby” and suggested women falsely claim to have been raped in order to terminate their pregnancies.

In a series of now-deleted tweets from one account, Kenyon made anti-abortion comments. Responding to a post by the comedian John Cleese, Kenyon said: “Don’t dole out the ‘what if someone is raped by their brother’ arguement [sic]. Life begins at conception. Abortion is the cowardly act of murdering a defenceless baby and not having to face up to it cause a Dr did it. They don’t want babies? Use contreception! [sic]”

In other posts he also claimed that people advocating the right to choose were “usually the lefty crowd”, adding: “Because the left are actually evil.”
Meanwhile, his Facebook connections suggest Kenyon has had links with senior figures on the far right, including Gary Raikes, leader of the New British Union. He was also Facebook friends with former BNP members Alex Eversfield and Robert Baggs.

He repeatedly made derogatory, sometimes sexual, remarks about high-profile women, including the Labour MP Emily Thornberry and television presenter Carol Vorderman; called Labour “the party for [derogatory term removed]”; and used homophobic comments about male rugby players.

 

[gabrielhj07]

Are you quite comfortable with a Reform Government in three years' time?

No, they’re incompetent amateurs with a range of badly thought-out policies, capitalising on what is basically a protest vote. See also the Labour Party.

As it stands, Reform have the best chance of beating Labour in Makerfield, and that is what’s important.

 

[adc82140]

Unless anyone can come up with another example, got to be the first time that a by-election has been called with the intention to allow someone to challenge for the post of Prime Minister during the course of a parliament.

I can't think of another by election where this has happened. The closest is the general election where a nice safe seat was found for Boris Johnson to re enter Parliament, with his designs on No 10 being the worst kept secret ever.

 

[thenorthern]

It is not the case that the Labour MP for Makerfield when elected would have given the opinion to his constituents that he would act full term on behalf of them in matters pertaining to local matters. One could imagine illness being a reason for standing down, but to stand down purely for the reason to enable a new Labour candidate to be elected for extraneous reasons totally unconnected for the political well-being of the constituency in the remaining part-term of office when that candidate is far more likely to devote time and energy in preparing for matters leading up his personal challenge for the leadership of the Labour party.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 May 2026 ==


Does there have to be a new mayoral election for Greater Manchester to elect a replacement for Burnham prior to the Makerfield by-election? Has Burnham stated when his mayoral term will end?

If he is elected then he has to immediately resign as Mayor of Greater Manchester due tot the fact that the Mayor is also Police and Crime Commissioner.

 

[Class73Electro]

This is the problem, I feel, with politics these days - its clear that Burnham is acting as a Career Politician, and the only reason that this by-election is happening is so that he can become PM. He's not standing to represent the people of Makersfield, lets be honest, who are just getting a raw deal*, he's just standing, probably in his mind save the sinking Labour ship.

*Admitting that this is probably not the only occasion, but never has it truly been this obvious.

It then comes down to what's the worst option, a MP who is only there for the PM seat, or a Reform... neither option is particularly great, to put it mildly.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

It then comes down to what's the worst option, a MP who is only there for the PM seat, or a Reform... neither option is particularly great, to put it mildly.

If this is a good, solid Labour area, why did Reform do so well in the local elections in the Wigan region of Greater Manchester? It was the local people there who cast their votes in the local elections.

 

[nw1]

If this is a good, solid Labour area, why did Reform do so well in the local elections in the Wigan region of Greater Manchester? It was the local people there who cast their votes in the local elections.

Is anyone saying it's a good, solid Labour area? If it were, there would be no question about Burnham winning.

Maybe after all this we'll end up with a Restore Britain MP. That would actually be less bad in a way, as they likely have no hope of actually winning a GE, and their candidate doesn't seem to be any worse than the Reform one to be honest. Dare I say it, perhaps less bad: I can't find out much information about her other than she's a "local business person", whereas the Reform one seems to have some rather strange views, according to the above Observer quotes.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Well, much as all website pundits like to view their own views on the by-election, it will be the good people in the constituency whose votes will determine which candidate will be elected as the MP.

 

[nw1]

Well, much as all website pundits like to view their own views on the by-election, it will be the good people in the constituency whose votes will determine which candidate will be elected as the MP.

And in other news, the Pope is Catholic.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

And in other news, the Pope is Catholic.

Will he be calling for divine intervention on the day that votes are cast?

 

[nw1]

Will he be calling for divine intervention on the day that votes are cast?

Knowing the current Pope and his beliefs, I'd hope so on the whole.

 

[styles]

And in other news, the Pope is Catholic.

So was Andy Burnham

 

[Gloster]

With regard to some of the reported comments by the Reform candidate, although they do seem to be substantiated, there used to be an adage that there were two groups that politicians should never criticise: the royal family and female newsreaders. Vorderman comes close to being in the second category.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Somewhere I read that the Greens won’t really be pushing this one as they did in Gorton & Denton as they are saving their main efforts for seats that they reckon they have a good chance in.

From what I understand, the total votes cast for the Green Party would be ones that would normally have been votes for the Labour Party. In the Gorton & Denton by-election, this would have been the case from the way the votes cast by that electorate were distributed.

 

[yorkie]

I would vote Reform purely out of spite for Labour's manoeuvring.

I can understand voting against Labour, but why Reform, and not one of the parties that isn't full of racists and xenophobes?

 

[Purple Train]

I can understand voting against Labour, but why Reform, and not one of the parties that isn't full of racists and xenophobes?

Presumably because they're the best tactical vote against Labour - which I can understand, although personally I'd rather eat raw slugs than vote Reform, and would vote Labour if I was eligible to vote in this by-election.

It's useless trying to punish Labour at the ballot box - if you were so minded - by disparately voting for a collection of minor parties and letting Labour come through the middle. Similarly, it's useless trying to stop Reform if the left-wing vote is split three ways.

Obviously I'd rather it wasn't this way, but the first-past-the-post system is unfortunately not given to nuance.

 

[GraphitProjekt]

“Subjected to Reform’s politics” is a fair amount of hyperbole, and is probably overstating the importance of a constituency MP. Speaking of which, they couldn’t do much worse than stand a candidate who’s express intention is to not represent his area.

Labour’s behaviour is incredibly arrogant and I hope the voters punish them accordingly.

Obviously one Reform MP won't make much of a difference to policy - but the result of this by-election sets the tone for the general election. The country is seemingly mostly made up of Reform curious voters and previous tory/labour who are now totally apathetic. A Reform win sends a message to get the former group to cross the boundary and feel secure in voting reform wherever they are, and causes the latter to give up and let what they perceive as a inevitable Reform victory flood in. Actual Reform ideologues are large in number and very vocal, but they're probably not quite enough on their own to make up a plurality of seats. They depend on disaffected voters staying at home and on a large number of people essentially saying "that's the way the wind is blowing, and they're the only option". That perception of "the only option", is one of the key things at play here. A Reform loss in Makerfield creates a story counter to that and also theoretically signals a big change happening to the Labour party that may make people believe in them more by 2029. Of course, Burnham can easily screw that up between here and there, but he definately can't succeed at changing the Labour brand if he's not in parliament.

You may disagree that there is a national significances to a certain candidate's win, but these are most likely the narratives that will be drawn up by the media and present in the "the national story" in the time after the by-election

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I wonder how many of the hundreds of currently sitting Labour MPs feel slighted that the current feeling prevails that it was necessary to bring an area mayor in as the Labour Party candidate for this by election purely as a stepping stone to becoming the next Prime Minister, as it certainly gives the impression that most of them are unsuitable to hold such a post.

 

[MP33]

If Labour fails to win. Is another Labour MP, going to stand down. So it will be rinsed and repeat.

 

[Tetchytyke]

If Labour fails to win. Is another Labour MP, going to stand down. So it will be rinsed and repeat.

I shouldn't think so, if Burnham doesn't win then he's sunk any chance of becoming leader. It's high-stakes for him. It's certainly not a guaranteed win.

But if the people of Makerfield choose the Vorderman Bum Sniffer instead then, quite frankly, good luck to the lot of them.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I shouldn't think so, if Burnham doesn't win then he's sunk any chance of becoming leader. It's high-stakes for him. It's certainly not a guaranteed win.

As a matter of interest, should Burnham not be elected, what will the position be of the Mayorship of Greater Manchester?

 

[PGAT]

As a matter of interest, should Burnham not be elected, what will the position be of the Mayorship of Greater Manchester?

Business as usual if he loses the by-election, he will continue on as his role as mayor and an election won’t be called

 

[SteveP29]

No, they’re incompetent amateurs with a range of badly thought-out policies, capitalising on what is basically a protest vote. See also the Labour Party.

As it stands, Reform have the best chance of beating Labour in Makerfield, and that is what’s important.

So why vote for something you have no intention of wanting?
That's absolutely batsh*t crazy man, listen to yourself

 

[quantinghome]

This is the problem, I feel, with politics these days - its clear that Burnham is acting as a Career Politician, and the only reason that this by-election is happening is so that he can become PM. He's not standing to represent the people of Makersfield, lets be honest, who are just getting a raw deal*, he's just standing, probably in his mind save the sinking Labour ship.

*Admitting that this is probably not the only occasion, but never has it truly been this obvious.

It then comes down to what's the worst option, a MP who is only there for the PM seat, or a Reform... neither option is particularly great, to put it mildly.

What exactly is the problem with 'Career Politicians'? Surely the last few years have taught us that it's beneficial to have political leaders with at least a couple of decades' experience in politics, whether as an MP, Mayor, minister, shadow cabinet etc. Recent PMs have had relatively short political careers prior to getting the senior positions, and frankly it shows. The idea that people can spend a career in business or law or whatever, then waltz into 10 or 11 Downing Street and make a good show of it is surely disproven. There are skills you need as a political leader which are very difficult to learn elsewhere.

I would be absurd to apply this line of reasoning to any other line of work wouldn't it? "I don't like the idea of this doctor who's treating me, he's obviously looking to do it as a career". "This guy I've got rewiring my house turns out to be one of those 'career electricians' - if only I'd known I would have found someone else with less vested interests". "Turns out this barrister defending me in court has had a 30 year legal career. Of course once I found out I dismissed them at once!"

As for the idea that a potential PM cannot represent the people in their constituency, why is this suddenly a problem? We've had this arrangement since Walpole. Obviously, yes, they are extremely busy and they're not going to be able to be the 'super-councillor' type of MP who turns up to every local event, but like all MPs they will have a casework team to deal with constituency issues, and there are major advantages too. I remember when they were looking to close one of the two factories that made Challenger tanks, surprisingly enough it was the one close to the PMs constituency which was saved. Let's not forget that back bench MPs with no other responsibilities can be utterly useless when it comes to representing their constituents.

 

[Edders23]

A liberal a socialist and a communist walk into a bar

what can I get you mr Burnham says the bartender.


Jokes aside the pollsters have Burnham with a healthy 3 point lead and the fact that it is the future PM of the country standing is helping the labour vote in the constituency. The best result for the constituency would be the local plumber but it would require the other RW candidates to drop out for that to happen.

The only reason the greens took the previous by-election was that they conned the asian community into believing they were a pro islamic party. I doubt that will happen again unless Polanski leaves and a fundamentalist muslim becomes the leader. Post election rresearch by the pollsters suggest that had Burnham been standing he would have won.

Burnham is a charismatic and popular politician who will probably win. As to whether he will be an improvement on Starmer, I doubt it.