18/6/2026 by-elections - including Makerfield

[Gloster]

As it may be of rather greater significance than most by-elections, I feel that a separate thread on the Makerfield By-election may be better than bits appearing in various different threads. Nominations closed yesterday (26 May) and the poll will take place on the 18 June.

There are fourteen candidates, mostly from the usual suspects, such as Labour, Reform, Restore, Green, Liberal-Democrats, Official Monster Raving Loony Parties and Count Binface. There are three, arguably four, independents and a few fringe parties: Climate, Libertarian and Conservative (sorry, couldn’t resist) Parties.

One observation is that most parties supplied the required five proposers and five seconders, but Reform supplied fifteen of each. It occurs to me that either they are so chaotic that they aren’t sure that if they listed only five of each, they would all qualify or they wouldn’t defect and deny their signature (or any one of a number of possibilities).

Somewhere I read that the Greens won’t really be pushing this one as they did in Gorton & Denton as they are saving their main efforts for seats that they reckon they have a good chance in. Possibly a prudent move if they don’t have a massive war chest. They also cacked it up by selecting a candidate who almost immediately withdrew.

The Reform candidate seems to have some ‘interesting’ opinions on women, Ukraine, and other matters. We shall see if people still vote for him despite these. The Restore candidate seems, so far, to be relatively rational, so unless some very nasty baggage appears from her past (quite possible with such parties) it will be interesting to see if she can overcome the ‘Restore? Who they?’ factor.

EDITED for grammar and spelling.

SECOND EDIT to correct Denton & Reddish to Gorton & Denton.

 

[SargeNpton]

Unless anyone can come up with another example, got to be the first time that a by-election has been called with the intention to allow someone to challenge for the post of Prime Minister during the course of a parliament.

If Burnham doesn't win it will be egg on face for him, and just as humiliating for Josh Simons who stood down to allow it all to happen.

 

[75A]

If Burnham doesn't win it will be egg on face for him, and just as humiliating for Josh Simons who stood down to allow it all to happen.

Let's hope, I for one would be laughing.

 

[SuspectUsual]

If Burnham doesn't win it will be egg on face for him, and just as humiliating for Josh Simons who stood down to allow it all to happen.

I wonder what promises have been made to Josh Simons so that he decided to suddenly give up a £90k job and associated gold-plated pension

People don’t do that out of the good of their heart

 

[brad465]

I wonder what promises have been made to Josh Simons so that he decided to suddenly give up a £90k job and associated gold-plated pension

People don’t do that out of the good of their heart

We'll have to wait and see, but I would guess a peerage in Starmer's resignation honours (or other honours' list announcement), or a job within the back party structure somewhere.

Labour are currently 3/10 with bookies, with Reform on 3/1 and Restore on 8/1.

 

[Gloster]

I wonder what promises have been made to Josh Simons so that he decided to suddenly give up a £90k job and associated gold-plated pension

People don’t do that out of the good of their heart

Simons may have felt that his prospects were a bit dim as he had been caught investigating journalists who had criticised the Labour Together think tank that he ran. Politics being politics, being caught was probably seen as being more serious than what he did. However, resigning to let Burnham have a run could be seen as building up favours for the future. Or maybe, now that he has queered his pitch and won’t rise high for a long time (if ever), he’s off to more lucrative pastures.

 

[SuspectUsual]

We'll have to wait and see, but I would guess a peerage in Starmer's resignation honours (or other honours' list announcement)

I might be wrong but I can’t imagine Starmer ennobling the man who conspired to give Burnham the chance of overthrowing him

 

[nw1]

Let's hope, I for one would be laughing.

Why? Burnham seems to be generally regarded as preferable to Starmer and has a higher chance of restoring Labour's fortunes by the next election.

And the alternatives for winning this by-election are seriously unpalatable. Reform? Restore? No thanks! It's not like a relatively sensible party like the Tories or the Lib Dems will beat Labour here.

 

[Farigiraf]

Regardless of the party that he's in and what his political opinions are, he's the only major political player that's actually backing electoral reform, which is incredibly rare from governing parties. Given that there's less than 10% between the top 5 parties in current polling, never before seen in modern British politics, any voter that wants to see the next general election's results be actually fair and not a chaotic mess should certainly back Burnham's plan for electoral reform.

 

[AlterEgo]

Encouraging an MP that people voted for to quit so you can attempt to launch a stealth challenge to the PM is disgraceful, to be honest. I would vote against Burnham in this election if I was in the constituency.

MP seats are not there as deckchairs for rent or convenience and this demeans the political process. I do not dislike Burnham but I would find it insulting if this happened where I live.

 

[PGAT]

Regardless of the party that he's in and what his political opinions are, he's the only major political player that's actually backing electoral reform, which is incredibly rare from governing parties. Given that there's less than 10% between the top 5 parties in current polling, never before seen in modern British politics, any voter that wants to see the next general election's results be actually fair and not a chaotic mess should certainly back Burnham's plan for electoral reform.

Has he not flip-flopped and U-turned on this several times already?

 

[Farigiraf]

Has he not flip-flopped and U-turned on this several times already?

That is true, however it's good to see electoral reform being taken seriously and the more it's in the headlines the more people consider the possibility. A vote for Burnham is not a vote for electoral reform, but a vote for someone other than him is a vote for guaranteed no electoral reform.

 

[gabrielhj07]

That is true, however it's good to see electoral reform being taken seriously and the more it's in the headlines the more people consider the possibility. A vote for Burnham is not a vote for electoral reform, but a vote for someone other than him is a vote for guaranteed no electoral reform.

And much like the other parties that have proposed it (Reform etc.) that position will change as soon as any poll shows Labour doing well in a GE.

 

[JamieL]

That is true, however it's good to see electoral reform being taken seriously and the more it's in the headlines the more people consider the possibility. A vote for Burnham is not a vote for electoral reform, but a vote for someone other than him is a vote for guaranteed no electoral reform.

The only way we will get electoral reform is if we end up with a coalition government and that is part of the deal. Parties that win under FPTP are loathe to change FPTP.

 

[nw1]

Encouraging an MP that people voted for to quit so you can attempt to launch a stealth challenge to the PM is disgraceful, to be honest. I would vote against Burnham in this election if I was in the constituency.

Even if that means a Reform or Restore MP?
Surely the fear of a Reform or possibly Restore MP must trump (pardon the pun) any discomfort towards the political games that have gone on to allow this by-election to happen?

There is a small but significant chance of a Reform government next time and the consequences of this are so potentially dire that this is something that must be stopped at all (legal) costs. If Burnham means less chance of that happening compared to Starmer, it's a good thing. If other parties have to play a bit dirty to stop this happening, so be it.

Politicians have played dirty since time immemorial. It's not good, but in the circumstances, with a potential major threat to the wellbeing of our country, it's something we have to tolerate in this instance IMO.

Reform can scarcely claim they haven't done similar things either. Did Jenrick or Braverman offer their electorate, who chose the Tories, a by-election? Of course not.

 

[AlterEgo]

Even if that means a Reform or Restore MP?
Surely the fear of a Reform or possibly Restore MP must trump (pardon the pun) any discomfort towards the political games that have gone on to allow this by-election to happen?

No, it's a disgrace actually. I'd be very cross about the ruling party's squabbling meaning the MP was conveniently ousted and then being asked to vote the parachute man in. I actually would not believe their cheek if they came down to where I lived and did that.

 

[nw1]

No, it's a disgrace actually. I'd be very cross about the ruling party's squabbling meaning the MP was conveniently ousted and then being asked to vote the parachute man in. I actually would not believe their cheek if they came down to where I lived and did that.

You're obviously not as afraid of Reform as myself and many others are. Personally I'd consider the possible consequences of a Reform government far worse - IMO severe economic damage, social authoritarianism, removal of employee rights and the right to strike, and victimisation of marginalised groups and possibly even their advocates are realistic possibilities. I don't trust them on the NHS either, and they will likely result in our country becoming an international laughing stock no-one will want to touch with a bargepole. Aside from the politics, who will take a country with Farage as its primary international representative seriously?

Of course Burnham isn't guaranteed to prevent a Reform government but I think he reduces the chances, given he appears to be better-regarded than Starmer.

I do wonder if it is a very English malaise to be so concerned about fair play that you miss the real threats that we could be facing.

 

[AlterEgo]

I'm not going to jump into the runaway Labour trolley and steer it down the track that kills only 5 people instead of 10. I don't like Labour, I have not voted for them in the recent past, I would not have voted for whoever the cuckold is that held Makerfield until recently and Labour could try to parachute in the resurrected Christ as a candidate and say it was necessary for my salvation and I'd still vote instead for a party I actually supported.

 

[nw1]

I'm not going to jump into the runaway Labour trolley and steer it down the track that kills only 5 people instead of 10. I don't like Labour, I have not voted for them in the recent past, I would not have voted for whoever the cuckold is that held Makerfield until recently and Labour could try to parachute in the resurrected Christ as a candidate and say it was necessary for my salvation and I'd still vote instead for a party I actually supported.

In FPTP you have to vote tactically for the party you hate least. There is no other way. A vote for anyone other than Labour in this by-election is effectively a vote for Reform or Restore. That is how our political system works and that is the game we have to play.

Of course, we need to replace FPTP with something else. FPTP is not democratic, it's out of date and needs to be replaced with a fairer system.

 

[AlterEgo]

In FPTP you have to vote tactically for the party you hate least.

I will continue to vote for parties I support in order to encourage them and endorse their policies, whether they have a chance of winning an election or not. Because to make the case for electoral reform, you have to at least demonstrate that a lot of votes are going to parties or candidates who cannot get a look in.

I have never cast a vote for what turned out to be the winning candidate or option in any election or referendum, ever. I'm fine with that.

 

[SuspectUsual]

In FPTP you have to vote tactically for the party you hate least

I will continue to vote for parties I support

I'm a lifelong Labour voter. I've never voted for anyone else

Every election I've been eligible to vote in so far I've happened to live in a constituency that has either been solid Labour or a marginal in which Labour could win (Calder Valley mainly)

I moved last year and my constituency is now Thirsk and Malton (incumbent - the awful Kevin Hollinrake), although that's only down to the last lot of boundary changes - prior to that it was Richmond, incumbent one Rishi Sunak. Frying pan. Fire

Two years ago Hollinrake got 39% of the vote, Labour - obviously at their peak - got 24% and Reform got 18%

Or to look at it as a left/right share of the vote:

2024
Left-leaning 40.9%
Right-leaning 57.2%

2019
Left-leaning 34.8%
Right-leaning 62.5%

So what do I do at the next election?

It is absolutely inevitable that the constituency will return either a Tory or Reform candidate.

Do I hold my nose and vote Tory as the lesser of two evils?

 

[nw1]

I'm a lifelong Labour voter. I've never voted for anyone else

Every election I've been eligible to vote in so far I've happened to live in a constituency that has either been solid Labour or a marginal in which Labour could win (Calder Valley mainly)

I moved last year and my constituency is now Thirsk and Malton (incumbent - the awful Kevin Hollinrake), although that's only down to the last lot of boundary changes - prior to that it was Richmond, incumbent one Rishi Sunak. Frying pan. Fire

Two years ago Hollinrake got 39% of the vote, Labour - obviously at their peak - got 24% and Reform got 18%

Or to look at it as a left/right share of the vote:

2024
Left-leaning 40.9%
Right-leaning 57.2%

2019
Left-leaning 34.8%
Right-leaning 62.5%

So what do I do at the next election?

It is absolutely inevitable that the constituency will return either a Tory or Reform candidate.

Do I hold my nose and vote Tory as the lesser of two evils?

If I was in your position I would vote Tory, as they are by far the lesser of the two evils. As I said, under FPTP we have no option other than to play the game.

 

[DarloRich]

Do I hold my nose and vote Tory as the lesser of two evils?

When I lived in Richmond/ Richmond & Northallerton constituency ( William Hauge and Rishi Sunak as MP) where they weigh tory votes I voted Labour every time. A totally wasted vote but I at least held the moral high ground.

If the Tories are the lesser of 2 evils we are in a bad place! I wouldn't vote for them while I have air in my lungs. Famous last words but I cant see Reform taking a constituency like Thirsk. The Tories usually have a majority of c.10000 and while that will be slashed I cant see them losing the seat. it is too rich and too farmery surely?

 

[SuspectUsual]

When I lived in Richmond/ Richmond & Northallerton constituency ( William Hauge and Rishi Sunak as MP) where they weigh tory votes I voted Labour every time. A totally wasted vote but I at least held the moral high ground.

If the Tories are the lesser of 2 evils we are in a bad place! I wouldn't vote for them while I have air in my lungs. Famous last words but I cant see Reform taking a constituency like Thirsk. The Tories usually have a majority of c.10000 and while that will be slashed I cant see them losing the seat. it is too rich and too farmery surely?

I really don't know. Hollinrake doesn't seem terribly popular as a person and now he's party chair he spends less time in the constituency than he used to, so I think pull of the "he's our man" factor will reduce.

Mind you, I bumped into the Reform candidate ahead of the 2024 election and he was as thick as mince, and every question I asked him (one each about education, SEND and transport) was immediately pivoted into a "it would be better if there were less forrins here"

The current majority is 7,550 whilst in the previous few elections it was around 20,000 not the 10,000 you mention. It doesn't take a massive swing for Reform to pinch it.

Electoral Calculus are predicting Tory 40.8%, Reform 37.1%, Labour 8.3%

Some other polls show it as a narrow win for Reform, some a narrow Tory win.

Obviously there's a long time to go yet, and Farage could yet come a cropper if the media stop protecting him, and if the even worse Lowe's lot gain more traction they may split the right wing vote.

But fundamentally FPTP is a pretty rubbish system, that's the broader point

 

[DarloRich]

But fundamentally FPTP is a pretty rubbish system, that's the broader point

agreed!

 

[Polarbear]

I had a little drive through the Makerfield constituency on Sunday, en route elsewhere, but to play “hunt the placard”.

Surprisingly, only four residences that bothered to fly their colours, but all four were turquoise.

I appreciate that’s a very unscientific sampling method, but interesting to see what is, and what isn’t being favoured.

 

[Stathern Jc]

I think that the thoughts so far give more serious consideration to the implications of the result of this election than will most of those eligible to vote in it.
Many will vote the same way regardless of the type of election, and many will treat it as a by election, with others giving it more thought.
What will be interesting (and I'm certainly not the person to ask) is; how many of those who are not inclined to vote for Burnham / Labour now or at a General Election might vote mischeviously, even if not likely to vote for Reform at a General Election.

I'm not in this constituency, and haven't looked closely at the list of candidates or what aims of the unfamiliar ones are.
But, I would be extremely suspicious of someone being given a convenient candidacy in the constituency in which I live with the sole aim of using it as a stepping stone to something well beyond the primary purpose of an MP, i.e. representing myself and other residents of that constituency should he/she be successful.

 

[gabrielhj07]

I would vote Reform purely out of spite for Labour's manoeuvring.

 

[SuspectUsual]

The bookies are currently pricing it as Labour 4/11, Reform 3/1, Restore 14/1

 

[brad465]

The bookies are currently pricing it as Labour 4/11, Reform 3/1, Restore 14/1

A scenario I can easily see happening is Labour winning the by-election, but the total votes of Reform and Restore combined being higher than Labour's. This will lead to huge rows in Reform about their direction and calls to be more hardline. Fortunately for them this will probably not get much news traction, as if Labour do win, Burnham will almost certainly have initiated a leadership challenge at this point.