Rory Sutherland's view: HS2 should be abandoned

[AlexSJW]

Rory Sutherland's view:

 

[zwk500]

Rory Sutherland's view:

At no point has there been a suggestion that people won't get on the HS2 trains. Nor does the classic line need any more people being encouraged on to the train.

So his answer is completely irrelevant.

But it generates a good soundbite (oh scrap it and give 1% of the funding to a nice interior desingner) and it's said by somebody who goes viral on Tiktok so it must be brilliant.

FWIW I find a lot of what he says interesting, but that specific answer is missing the point of HS2 completely.

 

[zwk500]

BTW, Jony Ive designed the Smart Phone.

I'm sorry you've completely lost me here.

 

[AlexSJW]

How they should have looked at it.

I'm sorry you've completely lost me here.

You never fully looked at the vid or understood it. Jony Ive, an English guy, did. I never made it up. Jony Ive significantly contributed to the modern smartphone as a lead design engineer. He, alongside Steve Jobs developed the original iPhone. Can can add value to trains as well.

Ironically, HS2 was never even popular with voters in the north, they wanted focus on fast local intra-north transport and finishing off metros, like Liverpool's, and extending tram networks, viewing HS2 as 'for London'. But the entire Westminster ecosystem is so bad at politics/communication they never figured this out in 20 years

 

[Krokodil]

Rory Sutherland's view:

He's completely wrong about the purpose of HS2. It was never principally about speed, it was always capacity.

The DfT didn't approach some engineers and say "can you get us from X to Y in Z time?". The problem posed was more along the lines of "how do we provide more capacity on long distance routes out of London?"

There's no need for marketing if you're already selling all of the widgets you can produce.

 

[Bletchleyite]

He's completely wrong about the purpose of HS2. It was never principally about speed, it was always capacity.

Bingo.

Probably the biggest mistake in the entire history of High Speed Two was calling it High Speed Two.

It should have been called something like "The Great Rail Capacity Project" if they wanted a buzzwordy name, and been promoted as offering more freight and regional capacity.

 

[Krokodil]

Jony Ive, an English guy, did. I never made it up. Jony Ive significantly contributed to the modern smartphone as a lead design engineer. He, alongside Steve Jobs developed the original iPhone.

And? What can he bring to the question of how to solve congestion on the WCML South?

 

[Zomboid]

And? What can he bring to the question of how to solve congestion on the WCML South?

If the whole thing has been designed on apple products it would be the same but using very expensive IT equipment?

 

[JamesT]

Rory Sutherland's view:

Who is Rory Sutherland? Why should I care what his views are?

 

[AlexSJW]

And? What can he bring to the question of how to solve congestion on the WCML South?

Look at the vid again.

BTW, the existing network gives all the capacity needed. If HS2 was all about capacity, then they spend a fortune making it as straight and flat as possible? It was all about speed. Speed which made little impact on the end to end times.

An advertising executive.

Marketing. Giving the punter what he wants. HS2 was not one of the wants or needs.

 

[AlexSJW]

When they get HS2 (or whatever they then call it) extended towards Crewe, would it be possible build that extention to the original 360kph ....

Wishful thinking. HS2 is clearly cancelled. Some of the land was kept in case NPR may use it. There is a planned dead end stub facing north at Fradley in case there is an extension, possibly for a WCML Stafford bypass. Whether this makes it to construction is a different matter, nevertheless the stub is still on the plan.

 

[The Planner]

Wishful thinking. HS2 is clearly cancelled. Some of the land was kept in case NPR may use it. There is a planned dead end stub facing north at Fradley in case there is an extension, possibly for a WCML Stafford bypass. Whether this makes it to construction is a different matter, but the stub is still on the plan.

The 2A land isn't lost.

 

[AlexSJW]

Lord Hendy, revealed that the original plan was for HS2 to effectively invent a brand-new automatic train-operating signalling system that didn’t yet exist.

Lord Hendy said HS2 trains will likely spend much of their time on the national rail network and also use the high-speed railway tracks between London and Birmingham. When HS2 was being sliced and diced by the previous government, they didn’t consider changing the train designs to factor that into account, said Hendy. They will be too slow on the WCML. Hendy is pushing to change the train designs to make them better suited for hybrid running on more National Rail tracks than originally anticipated.

A confirmation is that the HS2 trains will run slower than planned. Mark Wild, HS2 CEO, says he can deliver a 320kph (199mph) railway. Hendy wants speed on HS2 and the WCML using the same trains on the same services. There are suggestions to initially use existing rail stock with speeds increased to 160mph, as they perform well on the WCML.

It is confirmed that Euston station will open with six platforms, sufficient to accommodate the planned ten trains per hour. By the time HS2 runs to Birmingham, the diesel Chiltern Line may be upgraded or electric-battery hybrids used on the Marylebone to Birmingham service, meaning a faster service - it is a short direct route. Then the HS2 services from Euston/OOC may be reduced.

The 2A land isn't lost.

True. Most Phase 2a land has not yet been sold for sure. But the government is preparing broader HS2 land disposals. Some strategically useful sections may well be retained rather than disposed of immediately. The climate towards HS2 indicates the land will be sold. The only saviour is if Burnham becomes PM as he may save the land. But shouting for money for a high speed line to Manchester when mayor and giving the money out of central coffers when PM is another matter.

The section from Fradley to Hixon should be retained to accommodate a WCML Stafford bypass sending Manchester trains via Stone - the short route. Selling this section is folly.

 

[Krokodil]

Look at the vid again.

I did. At no point does he mention capacity. In fact with his focus on business class seats he would be reducing capacity.

BTW, the existing network gives all the capacity needed.

No it doesn't. The southern WCML is designated as "congested infrastructure".

Marketing. Giving the punter what he wants. HS2 was not one of the wants or needs.

The punters want a seat at a reasonable price. The way to achieve that is to run 400m trains on infrastructure that can take them.

 

[AlexSJW]

I did. At no point does he mention capacity. In fact with his focus on business class seats he would be reducing capacity.


No it doesn't. The southern WCML is designated as "congested infrastructure".


The punters want a seat at a reasonable price. The way to achieve that is to run 400m trains on infrastructure that can take them.

Sutherland was clearly on about improving the experience on trains. Not about making it better only for 1st class. The journey time, and experience, is from when entering the station and leaving the station at the other end. Making the whole package efficient and pleasant is the point he is clearly making. You clearly never got that. Or had selective amnesia.

West Mids/B'ham trains can go via an upgraded diesel Chiltern Line, as they once did, taking them off the WCML. Mcr trains could have left the WCML at Stone, they do now, again giving more capacity. Make the WCML all 4-track north of Crewe to Warrington, again giving more capacity.

The existing network as it is can handle extra capacity. Longer trains can be used. But HS2 is being built to Handsacre. So, if more trains are needed to Liverpool, Mcr or Glasgow over the ten trains per hour out of Euston, Birmingham trains can still be sent via an upgraded Chiltern. But a Chiltern with a vastly improved and attractive ride experience in the stations and trains.

 

[Krokodil]

You clearly never got that.

Oh I got it. But he was presenting the idea of installing some better seats and providing some nibbles as an alternative to HS2, because he thinks that the project is merely about speed.

It is not. It is about capacity. The WCML is full.

So, if more trains are needed to Liverpool, Mcr or Glasgow over the ten trains per hour out of Euston, Birmingham trains can still be sent via an upgraded Chiltern.

What makes you think that Chiltern has capacity? And how can it serve the people of Milton Keynes or Northampton?

 

[Zomboid]

The one route which will have adequate capacity when the remains of HS2 eventually opens is fast trains between London and Birmingham.

By all means upgrade the Chiltern line, it'll benefit the people of High Wycombe, Bicester, Banbury... But given what's actually happening, London and Birmingham will be sufficiently well connected for some time without it.

 

[Meole]

I did. At no point does he mention capacity. In fact with his focus on business class seats he would be reducing capacity.


No it doesn't. The southern WCML is designated as "congested infrastructure".


The punters want a seat at a reasonable price. The way to achieve that is to run 400m trains on infrastructure that can take them.

I did. At no point does he mention capacity. In fact with his focus on business class seats he would be reducing capacity.


No it doesn't. The southern WCML is designated as "congested infrastructure".


The punters want a seat at a reasonable price. The way to achieve that is to run 400m trains on infrastructure that can take them.

AlexSJW surely provides very clear evidence that the southern WCML is not congested ?

 

[AlexSJW]

Oh I got it. But he was presenting the idea of installing some better seats and providing some nibbles as an alternative to HS2, because he thinks that the project is merely about speed.

It is not. It is about capacity. The WCML is full.


What makes you think that Chiltern has capacity? And how can it serve the people of Milton Keynes or Northampton?

Such confusion. It was abundantly clear what Sutherland was proposing. I am not going to explain it to you blow by blow.

There is not a capacity issue that the existing network, even by opening the odd line or two, cannot absorb. HS2 was built for speed, speed and speed, spending a fortune on making the track straight and level. On initial announcement it was all speed, speed and speed.

If they had taken the Rory Sutherland approach fifteen years ago we now would have had a finished high class Swiss type of inter-city rail network, being the envy of the world.

AlexSJW surely provides very clear evidence that the southern WCML is not congested ?

Any congestion can be addressed by longer trains, removing bottlenecks, in-cab signals and upgrading the Chiltern Line taking B'ham/West Mids trains off the WCML. It is not rocket science.

 

[JamesT]

Such confusion. It was abundantly clear what Sutherland was proposing. I am not going to explain it to you blow by blow.

There is not a capacity issue that the existing network, even by opening the odd line or two, cannot absorb. HS2 was built for speed, speed and speed, spending a fortune on making the track straight and level. On initial announcement it was all speed, speed and speed.

If they had taken the Rory Sutherland approach fifteen years ago we now would have had a finished high class Swiss type of inter-city rail network, being the envy of the world.


Any congestion can be addressed by longer trains, removing bottlenecks, in-cab signals and upgrading the Chiltern Line taking B'ham/West Mids trains off the WCML. It is not rocket science.

So the experts at Network Rail who concluded you cannot get anywhere near the benefits of HS2 by upgrading the existing network, and you still need a new line because the WCML is full are wrong? And you and a random marketer off the internet are right?

 

[AlexSJW]

Transport Secretary finally admits HS2 is a vanity project! She says:

"it was a massively over-spec'd folly with the prospect of the fastest train anywhere in the world tickling the fancy of Conservative ministers"

So the experts at Network Rail who concluded you cannot get anywhere near the benefits of HS2 by upgrading the existing network, and you still need a new line because the WCML is full are wrong? And you and a random marketer off the internet are right?

One of the criticisms of Lord Berkeley was that no serious study was undertaken to upgrade the existing network. If you had been following HS2 you would know this.

 

[JamesT]

Transport Secretary finally admits HS2 is a vanity project! She says:

"it was a massively over-spec'd folly with the prospect of the fastest train anywhere in the world tickling the fancy of Conservative ministers"


One of the criticisms of Lord Berkeley was that no serious study was undertaken to upgrade the existing network. If you had been following HS2 you would know this.

So what's this then? https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/review-of-strategic-alternatives-to-high-speed-two
Lord Berkeley comes across as very bitter that the Oakervee Review didn't agree with him and seems determined to rubbish everything about the project.
I've been posting on this forum about HS2 for about a decade, I've not just started following HS2.

 

[Krokodil]

AlexSJW surely provides very clear evidence that the southern WCML is not congested ?

He provides opinions, not evidence. Network Rail have provided evidence to the ORR.

There is not a capacity issue that the existing network, even by opening the odd line or two, cannot absorb. HS2 was built for speed, speed and speed, spending a fortune on making the track straight and level. On initial announcement it was all speed, speed and speed.

The first item in the strategic case was about capacity. Capacity is referred to over and over again in the business case.

If they had taken the Rory Sutherland approach fifteen years ago we now would have had a finished high class Swiss type of inter-city rail network, being the envy of the world.

No we wouldn't. Because you're never going to solve our overcrowding problems by making the seats a bit more comfortable and providing WiFi onboard.

 

[The Planner]

West Mids/B'ham trains can go via an upgraded diesel Chiltern Line, as they once did, taking them off the WCML. Mcr trains could have left the WCML at Stone, they do now, again giving more capacity. Make the WCML all 4-track north of Crewe to Warrington, again giving more capacity.

The existing network as it is can handle extra capacity. Longer trains can be used. But HS2 is being built to Handsacre. So, if more trains are needed to Liverpool, Mcr or Glasgow over the ten trains per hour out of Euston, Birmingham trains can still be sent via an upgraded Chiltern. But a Chiltern with a vastly improved and attractive ride experience in the stations and trains.

So there is the new cost for upgrading the Chilterns then.

What makes you think that Chiltern has capacity?

It doesn't

There is not a capacity issue that the existing network, even by opening the odd line or two, cannot absorb. HS2 was built for speed, speed and speed, spending a fortune on making the track straight and level. On initial announcement it was all speed, speed and speed.



Any congestion can be addressed by longer trains, removing bottlenecks, in-cab signals and upgrading the Chiltern Line taking B'ham/West Mids trains off the WCML. It is not rocket science.

So removing bottlenecks, upgrading the Chilterns, resignalling to ETCS isn't a result of not having capacity then? What happens once growth outstrips longer trains?

 

[AlexSJW]

So what's this then? https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/review-of-strategic-alternatives-to-high-speed-two
Lord Berkeley comes across as very bitter that the Oakervee Review didn't agree with him and seems determined to rubbish everything about the project.
I've been posting on this forum about HS2 for about a decade, I've not just started following HS2.

That was heavily critised as being too shallow.

What happens once growth outstrips longer trains?

That is a long time into the future. But.....
Keeping the OOC to Aylesbury section then running onto an upgraded Chiltern with longer trains to Birmingham. Also from north of Rugby largely reuse the Gt.Central trackbed to Aylesbury then branch into HS2 to London. Two ways into London. WCML splits at Rugby. WCML services into Euston and OOC.

He

Sop telling yourself lies and believing them.

 

[Meole]

That was heavily critised as being too shallow.


That is a long time into the future. But.....
Keeping the OOC to Aylesbury section then running onto an upgraded Chiltern with longer trains to Birmingham. Also from north of Rugby largely reuse the Gt.Central trackbed to Aylesbury then branch into HS2 to London. Two ways into London. WCML splits at Rugby. WCML services into Euston and OOC.


Sop telling yourself lies and believing them.

As Alex implies take passenger off Euston onto the underused and equally fast Chiltern to free up capacity for freight on the WCML.

 

[Krokodil]

Sop telling yourself lies and believing them.

Call yourself what you like, your arguments still don't add up.

 

[AlexSJW]

Call yourself what you like, your arguments still don't add up.

You have been slaughtered, in your futile attempt to justify one billion per mile.

 

[Stossgebet]

Transport Secretary finally admits HS2 is a vanity project! She says:

"it was a massively over-spec'd folly with the prospect of the fastest train anywhere in the world tickling the fancy of Conservative ministers"

One of the criticisms of Lord Berkeley was that no serious study was undertaken to upgrade the existing network. If you had been following HS2 you would know this.

The current transport minister, is just continuing the 'blame the tories' rhetoric.

You will find that it was labours Transport minister, Lord Adonis, that stated HS2 will run at up to 250mph. And that happened before the Tories won the election. So let's leave the idea that HS2 is a "Tory vanity project" in the bin, where such rhetoric belongs!

 

[Krokodil]

You have been slaughtered, in your futile attempt to justify one billion per mile.

I haven't justified the cost of HS2. It has been inflated by political meddling, poorly written contracts, a planning system not fit for national infrastructure projects, and external factors beyond the control of the DfT (materials inflation caused by covid and the Russian invasion of Ukraine).

That doesn't mean that the basic premise behind the project - that the WCML is full (something you deny in spite of all of the evidence produced by the experts) and that the best way to solve this collar on our economic growth is to build a new line - was wrong.