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How could the UK reduce the cost of large infrastructure projects?

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FMerrymon

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HS2 is very big city centric. Even Coventry our 10th largest city hasn’t been treated particularly well - and certainly the fairly large East Midlands cities haven’t.
Its big city centric as that's where the biggest flows are, the biggest bottlenecks for other services and those places already act as major hubs. Getting into them and providing new platforms/stations is the main cost driver compared to most other countries.
People in Coventry care about going to other places other than just London. HS2 still would improve their biggest flow to Birmingham and the full network would have improved their connectivity to most of the country and with more seats available to London. Once interchange is open, the amount of local transport going that way will increase and for some I suspect wont be much different from getting to the city centre.
The original plan for the east midlands was very strong.

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Unlikely. The land required is a function of the scale of the railway, not where it is. Arguably, it would havebeen more if it followed the motorways, as the alignment of the railway would have to be straighter than the motorway (imagine going round the Otmoor curve at 200mph, it’s a challenge at 80!), and therefore likely need to cross the motorway multiple times, and cut corners leaving parts of land with no access.

Agree, and those routes were looked into with the M1 route being more expensive and with fewer benefits and m40 being too windy to follow. HS1 can follow the M2 and M20 closer as they are pretty straight. Was still a lot of resistance to that project despite that though.
 
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MatthewHutton

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Was still a lot of resistance to that project despite that though.
Much less than HS2.

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Getting into them and providing new platforms/stations is the main cost driver compared to most other countries.
Agree. But that isn’t true with phase 2a.

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Its big city centric as that's where the biggest flows are
The non big city flows aren’t small though, probably have more growth potential, and have higher traffic per pound invested.
 

FMerrymon

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HS2 appears to have started from the idea that the maximum achievable railway capacity was 18-ish 400m trains per hour, then worked backwards to find trains to redirect to get up to this magic figure.

They were advised by SNCF to maximise use and there was an opportunity to release capacity on 3 north south mainlines by inclusion of the east branch which had a larger return. They didnt work backwards at all.
 

MatthewHutton

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They were advised by SNCF to maximise use and there was an opportunity to release capacity on 3 north south mainlines by inclusion of the east branch which had a larger return. They didnt work backwards at all.
“Maximise use” in French parlance means 4tph or something.

The only one really doing significantly better than that is LGV Sud Est, and maybe LGV Nord.
 

FMerrymon

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Much less than HS2.

I disagree, its just the route was shorter.

Agree. But that isn’t true with phase 2a.

It doesnt need to be with phase 2a - and its why phase2a is roughly half the cost per mile of phase 1.

The non big city flows aren’t small though, probably have more growth potential, and have higher traffic per pound invested.

That's the whole point of HS2 - they get a better service on the existing lines with room to grow. Its the primary objective.

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“Maximise use” in French parlance means 4tph or something.

The only one really doing significantly better than that is LGV Sud Est, and maybe LGV Nord.
13 aiming for 16 after a signalling upgrade https://www.sncf-reseau.com/en/projets-et-travaux-majeurs/paris-lyon-lgv-line-innovative-project
 

MatthewHutton

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I disagree, its just the route was shorter
Did really 95% of the people in Kent oppose HS1?

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That's the whole point of HS2 - they get a better service on the existing lines with room to grow. Its the primary objective.
Maybe if a whole bunch of other things change too.

Look the TGV runs direct service to a bunch of small places. HS2 has had to be dragged kicking and screaming to do so even when it’s going directly past.

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On the very busiest line at peak times. Not the others.

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It doesnt need to be with phase 2a - and its why phase2a is roughly half the cost per mile of phase 1
Phase 1 is what £400m/km in today’s money. It’s difficult to believe phase 2 would have been cancelled if it was £200m/km or £9bn to do it to Baldwins Gate.
 

FMerrymon

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Phase 1 is what £400m/km in today’s money. It’s difficult to believe phase 2 would have been cancelled if it was £200m/km or £9bn to do it to Baldwins Gate.

Phase 2a was cancelled for political reasons.

Maybe if a whole bunch of other things change too.

Look the TGV runs direct service to a bunch of small places. HS2 has had to be dragged kicking and screaming to do so even when it’s going directly past.

No, not at all. You're fundamentally missing the point of hs2 and trying to recreate the existing lines with the new line.
 

HSTEd

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That's the whole point of HS2 - they get a better service on the existing lines with room to grow. Its the primary objective.
Assuming the ongoing subsidies required to operate these services, when stripped of their primary farebox income, is forthcoming.
And that that subsidy is provided forever.

A lot of people don't really believe that that will happen.
 

MatthewHutton

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Phase 2a was cancelled for political reasons
It was cancelled because the costs got out of control. The political environment is that the “red wall” towns are the most important and they support investment in the north.

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Assuming the ongoing subsidies required to operate these services, when stripped of their primary farebox income, is forthcoming.
And that that subsidy is provided forever.

A lot of people don't really believe that that will happen.
There’s also the marketing aspect. There would be a direct TGV service from Paris to the French equivalent to Windermere.

Now yes it would be 2 trains a day. But it would exist.

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No, not at all. You're fundamentally missing the point of hs2 and trying to recreate the existing lines with the new line
The existing lines have a stop every 5km. Not every 30-50.
 
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Noddy

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I'm not saying Brightline is HS2, I'm responding to the thread question of how infrastracture can be delivered cheaper.

Jesus, have you seen the safety record of the Brightline? A total of 196 deaths involved collisions with Brightline trains between 2018 and 2025. Sounds like the construction involved not paying for some pretty major safety features which, quite rightly, would be mandatory here.
 

YorkshireBear

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Pay everyone involved in the work half what they are currently getting.
I'd be tempted to reduce the amount of people involved instead. The amount of people all reviewing the same information is sometimes unbelievable. It shouldn't need that many competent people to review something being undertaken by competent people.
 

quantinghome

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I believe there's now a push against being too close to Motorways because it leaves a corridor of unusable land.
That was one of the reasons put forward for HS2 going cross-country compared to HS1 which followed existing motorways and railways wherever possible. But I think it's a pretty minor issue to be honest. The land area caught in between the railway and motorway is not that big, and besides HS2 then decided to enclose the railway within a very wide strip of landscaping, thus making the land just as unusable anyway. In the end there may have been other reasons why the route was chosen - building next motorways can be problematic in all sorts of ways.

But there are two general points to be drawn from this. Firstly, properly think through decision making - particularly consider whether a problem is actually that critical, and think about the consequences of the decision (in the case of HS2, the high design speed, crazy no-maintenance specification and landscaping massively increased the size and cost of the project for marginal gain). And the second is if it ain't broke don't fix it. HS1 was built reasonably efficiently but HS2 seemed to disregard the experience gained and developed a highly bespoke project.
 

MatthewHutton

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That is quite interesting but the maps are very unclear and it’s still not really clear they properly considered the M40 or M1 routes. There’s no detailed design in terms of saying “we’d need a tunnel here”. Or saying why they couldn’t follow the M40 as opposed to the chiltern mainline south of Bicester.

EDIT: Also no consideration of literally following the chiltern mainline at least south of Bicester which was built with 1 mile radius curves in general and has space for 4 tracks at the stations.

There’s no mention of needing smaller bridges/tunnels/earthworks/noise cancelling with a lower design speed.
 
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CMS1

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That is quite interesting but the maps are very unclear and it’s still not really clear they properly considered the M40 or M1 routes. There’s no detailed design in terms of saying “we’d need a tunnel here”. Or saying why they couldn’t follow the M40 as opposed to the chiltern mainline south of Bicester.

There’s no mention of needing smaller bridges/tunnels/earthworks/noise cancelling with a lower design speed.
And only appear to be comparing them in relation to Birmingham, whereas the M1 corridor option is particularly advantageous to East Midlands, Sheffield, Leeds, Newcastle, Edinburgh etc
 

quantinghome

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This document shows the problem - the implications of such a high design speed weren't considered in detail at the time the decision was fixed. The speed for timetabling purposes was 330kph, with a maximum speed of 360kph to allow the timetable to be maintained through slight delays of a minute or two. The design speed was then further increased to 400kph to allow for future-proofing an extended long distance route to Scotland - but this assumes you would maintain a 400kph running speed pretty much all the way, which surely would have been impractical through Cumbria and the Scottish borders.

The report states "around 68 miles of the route has a maximum design speed of 250mph, limiting the extent of route that could potentially be improved by using a lower speed". But that's putting the argument backwards. Why go to the effort of such a high design speed if it's only for 68 miles of the route? The claim was that a 4 minute increase in journey time reduced the BCR by 15%. I find that hard to believe.

The engineering implications of this decision were not considered - by pushing the design speed so high it meant all sorts of esoteric engineering issues came into play - including the risk of creating a dynamic standing wave in the ground below the tracks, essentially breaking the 'sound barrier' for mechanical waves travelling through the ground. This necessitated major engineering interventions to improve or replace the ground, well beyond the requirements of a 'normal' requirements of a new road or railway. Other issues included the cutting approaches to tunnels where major engineering interventions were needed to deal with long-term heave in the underlying clay soils.

The appropriate course of action would have been to initially design for a timetabled speed of 300kph with some allowance in the alignment for an increase in speed (to say 350kph), then consider whether it could actually be increased without creating problems in the engineering.
 

JamesT

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That was one of the reasons put forward for HS2 going cross-country compared to HS1 which followed existing motorways and railways wherever possible. But I think it's a pretty minor issue to be honest. The land area caught in between the railway and motorway is not that big, and besides HS2 then decided to enclose the railway within a very wide strip of landscaping, thus making the land just as unusable anyway. In the end there may have been other reasons why the route was chosen - building next motorways can be problematic in all sorts of ways.

But there are two general points to be drawn from this. Firstly, properly think through decision making - particularly consider whether a problem is actually that critical, and think about the consequences of the decision (in the case of HS2, the high design speed, crazy no-maintenance specification and landscaping massively increased the size and cost of the project for marginal gain). And the second is if it ain't broke don't fix it. HS1 was built reasonably efficiently but HS2 seemed to disregard the experience gained and developed a highly bespoke project.
I would argue a major difference is the size of population centres that the two motorways go through. The M20/M2/A2 mostly skirts round anything large apart from Ashford and Ebbsfleet, before diving into a tunnel to get into London.
Whereas the M1 is going through Edgeware, Luton, Milton Keynes. The M1 doesn't go to Birmingham, so presumably you then follow the M6 corridor, so you're going through Coventry.

As the document @FMerrymon links to, the mitigations required for such a route would end up costing more than the relatively direct route that was chosen.

Another thing to consider is that the current route of HS1 is not the originally proposed one. It was supposed to go via Tonbridge and enter London from the South East, so not following the motorway corridors.

That is quite interesting but the maps are very unclear and it’s still not really clear they properly considered the M40 or M1 routes. There’s no detailed design in terms of saying “we’d need a tunnel here”. Or saying why they couldn’t follow the M40 as opposed to the chiltern mainline south of Bicester.
It's a summary of work done previously. It explicitly says they considered the M1, M40, and Chiltern routes. They're not going to go into detailed design decisions. If you want more detail, try doing a Freedom of Information Act request for the 2009 work they mention.

But one of the ways of saving money, is to sift out the options early. Once you have enough data to show that a route is unsuitable, you don't waste any more resources on those.

And only appear to be comparing them in relation to Birmingham, whereas the M1 corridor option is particularly advantageous to East Midlands, Sheffield and Leeds

When the directed aim of the project is London to the West Midlands, it's unsurprising that options are going to measured against how they get to Birmingham.
 

quantinghome

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Also no consideration of literally following the chiltern mainline at least south of Bicester which was built with 1 mile radius curves in general and has space for 4 tracks at the stations.
1 mile radius curves give you at best 100mph top speed.
 

MatthewHutton

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But one of the ways of saving money, is to sift out the options early. Once you have enough data to show that a route is unsuitable, you don't waste any more resources on those.
You needed to at least have something coherent to show the (parish/county) councillors affected by the project.

And I don’t think coming up with designs is the expensive bit. It’s the cheap bit compared to construction.

Considering 3 options properly isn’t that mean.
 

CMS1

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When the directed aim of the project is London to the West Midlands, it's unsurprising that options are going to measured against how they get to Birmingham.
But the aim of HS2 overall was definitely not London-Birmingham and if M1 corridor was dismissed based on phase 1 only that's a massive unforgivable error, but I assume this can't be possible!
 

MatthewHutton

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1 mile radius curves give you at best 100mph top speed.
And how many curves are even that limiting?

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But the aim of HS2 overall was definitely not London-Birmingham and if M1 corridor was dismissed based on phase 1 only that's a massive unforgivable error, but I assume this can't be possible!
Incompetence is always possible.

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The claim was that a 4 minute increase in journey time reduced the BCR by 15%. I find that hard to believe.
Now the “logic” for the lack of intermediate stations makes sense.

But it’s also absurd. Are people really doing London Glasgow going to use the train if it’s 3h40 but not if it’s 3h44?
 
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FMerrymon

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But the aim of HS2 overall was definitely not London-Birmingham and if M1 corridor was dismissed based on phase 1 only that's a massive unforgivable error, but I assume this can't be possible!

Not serving Birmingham would be a massive unforgivable error. Its a major hub and one of the biggest bottlenecks on the system.

It also meant that Birmingham, and therefore the west midlands, mid and south wales and the south west would get better connectivity to the east midlands, yorks and NE.
 

Noddy

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There is also a general overview of the process published as HS2 railway, UK: route optioneering in Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers– Transport.


Figure 6 clearly shows how many corridors were assessed and removed before getting down to Stage 3. Even at Stage 3 there were still multiple corridors left (dashed black in the map below).

1770990374451.png
(Image shows a map of the route corridors between London and Staffordshire at stages 1, 2 and 3).
 
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MatthewHutton

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There is also a general overview of the process published as HS2 railway, UK: route optioneering in Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers– Transport.


Figure 6 clearly shows how many corridors were assessed and removed before getting down to Stage 3. Even at this Stage 3 there were still multiple corridors left.

View attachment 198056
(Image shows a map of the route corridors between London and Staffordshire at stages 1, 2 and 3).
Certainly that hasn’t been communicated well.
 

CMS1

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Not serving Birmingham would be a massive unforgivable error. Its a major hub and one of the biggest bottlenecks on the system.
Obviously, and the M1 option served Birmingham. Back to the actual point, if the phase 1 route was chosen because it was best for phase 1 and not because it was best for the overall scheme, that's a serious schoolboy error.
 

HSTEd

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They were advised by SNCF to maximise use and there was an opportunity to release capacity on 3 north south mainlines by inclusion of the east branch which had a larger return. They didnt work backwards at all.
They were advised by SNCF to maximise use and then went looking for trains to fill the ~18 paths per hour they determined were available, discovering the "opportunity".
That is working backwards isn't it?

EDIT:

It also doesn't matter if the eastern leg has a "larger return" (although given how quickly it got axed I doubt it), the project failed before it ever got into a position to gain those benefits.

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Not serving Birmingham would be a massive unforgivable error. Its a major hub and one of the biggest bottlenecks on the system.

It also meant that Birmingham, and therefore the west midlands, mid and south wales and the south west would get better connectivity to the east midlands, yorks and NE.
I can't necessarily speak for other people, but when I say the M1 corridor, I mean the M1 corridor to Birmingham.

Which is pretty much what the existing primary railway to Birmingham does.
 
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Noddy

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Again, what about the rest of the phases? Did they seriously not plan the network overall?

Talk about history repeating itself!

You mean like this?

1770992135828.png
(Image shows ‘Figure 4 Strategic route options’ which is three side by side maps of different routes between London and the Scottish central belt. None represent the final Y-shaped design).
 
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