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Restarting HS2a

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JamesT

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I have literally quoted the chief NIMBY organisation supporting an M1 alignment.
I was responding to your suggestion of an M40 alignment.

It would be interesting to see how CPRE calculated an M1 alignment was cheaper. HS2 did a review of alternatives in 2012 - https://assets.publishing.service.g...c/hs2-review-of-route-selection-and-speed.pdf
That review found the alternatives were more expensive as they involved a longer route and more tunnelling to avoid built up areas.
 
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Trainbike46

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I have literally quoted the chief NIMBY organisation supporting an M1 alignment.
They are supporting the M1 alignment instead of the one that was built. There is a real chance that, had the government opted for an M1 alignment in the first instance, there would definitely have been opposition from that (and I suspect CPRE would have been opposed in that situation, but obviously can't be sure).

Presumably because it didn’t serve passenger trains.
The betuweroute following the A15 was an adjusted plan, after it was decided that alternatives like upgrading existing railways, some of which run very close to the betuweroute alignment, would cause too many issues, including not offering sufficient growth opportunites for the railfreight sector, and causing too much disturbance to the many towns the existing railways ran through, so from an avoiding opposition stance it should have been an improvement, but it wasn't.
Like look honestly you were always going to see opposition- especially as you couldn’t realistically have a station south of Aylesbury so it was full of London commuters.

What you could avoid was the volume of opposition. You didn’t have to have 95% of the people on the route opposing.
I think you are too optimistic about the abilities to reduce NIMBY opposition, but that is something we can disagree on.


I'm not really sure why we are still arguing over phase 1 routing though, because for better or for worse, we are now very much stuck with the phase 1 route as it is.
 

MatthewHutton

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I think you are too optimistic about the abilities to reduce NIMBY opposition
When you go out and speak to the voters in general most people don’t oppose new development. It is usually just a noisy minority.

With HS2 phase one the opposition is much bigger.

That said if the lessons from phase one are learned - I.e more stops, make sure the speed is lower so the route can be more flexible, and not starting with the betterments from phase 1 as you are doing more stops then it can be delivered for a sensible amount of money.

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Do you have any link or evidence to back any of that up?
Compare the cost per kilometre to the Borders railway or the Northumberland line.

It’s not exactly cheaper per kilometre adjusted for inflation even if you don’t bother with the electrification and build a cheap station at Old Oak Common.
 

FMerrymon

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Compare the cost per kilometre to the Borders railway or the Northumberland line.

It’s not exactly cheaper per kilometre adjusted for inflation even if you don’t bother with the electrification and build a cheap station at Old Oak Common

You said "which includes a ludicrous amount of extras and gold plating" and
"There’s no evidence in the proposal that there is any cost reduction to it from the existence of HS2", when I ask for evidence, you point me to a different project!

What are the "ludicrous amount of extras and gold plating"?
How could a railway not be cheaper if the earthworks are already done?Earthworks are not free.
What is the source of your £5bn figure?
 

MatthewHutton

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What are the "ludicrous amount of extras and gold plating"?
The £500 million pounds for a Chiltern Line terminal at Old Oak Common for starters.

Including the full cost of replacing all of the rolling stock (£1bn) and electrifying the entire Chiltern mainline (£0.5-2bn) in the proposal also are pretty silly.

All of this is from the table on page 8 of https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/...Case_for_Northampton_to_Old_Oak_Common_v2.pdf

The mainline connections from that which is Steeple Clayton-Aylesbury-Princes Risborough and South Ruislip to Old Oak Common (which is a total of 40km) comes to £500m-£1bn. Less ridiculous than the station cost but still not exactly lower than other lines that have been recently reopened.
 

MatthewHutton

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So why is there so much HS2 opposition in Warter Orton. It’s near a station and is surrounded by motorways.
If you drive past on the M42 it’s pretty obvious why people are upset about it who live locally.

The roadworks for it go on for absolutely miles and miles with low speed limits and aren’t exactly progressing at pace.

You are probably delayed by 10 minutes every single day you drive past and in exchange your trips on the railway going north might be an hour quicker a couple of times a year and half an hour quicker maybe 4 times a year going south.

I bet the locals aren’t even getting a bottle of champagne at Christmas either for their trouble.

EDIT: If a more sensible top speed of say 160km/h for the Birmingham trains and 300km/h for the through trains - and lower if needed I would expect the crossings of the motorway could be reduced somewhat and their locations could be closer together.

EDIT 2: Ok so there’s also https://nationalhighways.co.uk/our-roads/west-midlands/m42-junction-6/ which is a road improvement. But I had to look at the openrailwaymap and one.network to see that it is separate. It definitely wasn’t clear from the signage.
 
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Grimsby town

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If you drive past on the M42 it’s pretty obvious why people are upset about it who live locally.

The roadworks for it go on for absolutely miles and miles with low speed limits and aren’t exactly progressing at pace.

You are probably delayed by 10 minutes every single day you drive past and in exchange your trips on the railway going north might be an hour quicker a couple of times a year and half an hour quicker maybe 4 times a year going south.

I bet the locals aren’t even getting a bottle of champagne at Christmas either for their trouble.

EDIT: If a more sensible top speed of say 160km/h for the Birmingham trains and 300km/h for the through trains - and lower if needed I would expect the crossings of the motorway could be reduced somewhat and their locations could be closer together.

EDIT 2: Ok so there’s also https://nationalhighways.co.uk/our-roads/west-midlands/m42-junction-6/ which is a road improvement. But I had to look at the openrailwaymap and one.network to see that it is separate. It definitely wasn’t clear from the signage.
I'm not sure the people of High Wycombe would welcome the road works anymore than the people of Water Orton though. The M40 route would impact far more people which is going to mean more opposition.
 

MatthewHutton

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I'm not sure the people of High Wycombe would welcome the road works anymore than the people of Water Orton though. The M40 route would impact far more people which is going to mean more opposition.
Maybe that’s true. But you also didn’t have to run non stop from London to Birmingham.
 

FMerrymon

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The £500 million pounds for a Chiltern Line terminal at Old Oak Common for starters.

Including the full cost of replacing all of the rolling stock (£1bn) and electrifying the entire Chiltern mainline (£0.5-2bn) in the proposal also are pretty silly.

All of this is from the table on page 8 of https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/...Case_for_Northampton_to_Old_Oak_Common_v2.pdf

The mainline connections from that which is Steeple Clayton-Aylesbury-Princes Risborough and South Ruislip to Old Oak Common (which is a total of 40km) comes to £500m-£1bn. Less ridiculous than the station cost but still not exactly lower than other lines that have been recently reopened.

So youve added the full cost of a larger proposal inclusive of electrification of part of the chiltern lines, a change of rolling stock and not specifically the Aylesbury link.

How could a railway not be cheaper if the earthworks are already done and track relayed for a large part of it?

Anyway, nothing will change on this, there will be benefits to Aylesbury if a future govt funds the link.

Build phase 2a.
 

Trainbike46

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If you drive past on the M42 it’s pretty obvious why people are upset about it who live locally.

The roadworks for it go on for absolutely miles and miles with low speed limits and aren’t exactly progressing at pace.

You are probably delayed by 10 minutes every single day you drive past and in exchange your trips on the railway going north might be an hour quicker a couple of times a year and half an hour quicker maybe 4 times a year going south

I bet the locals aren’t even getting a bottle of champagne at Christmas either for their trouble.
Are you actually serious here?
EDIT: If a more sensible top speed of say 160km/h for the Birmingham trains and 300km/h for the through trains - and lower if needed I would expect the crossings of the motorway could be reduced somewhat and their locations could be closer together.
Speed differences kill capacity, and running at a lower speed would increase operational costs, as you'd need more trains (expensive to buy/lease) and more staff to run the same service.

Increasing operational cost by running 160km/h trains, massively reducing capacity of the railway, when you can't even save on the capital expense (as you're still building a 300 km/h railway), would be many things. Sensible is not one of them.

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To bring this back to HS2 ph2A, building it and upgrading Crewe station to enable splitting/joining 400m trains is the best way to get more passengers into rail.
 

MatthewHutton

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How could a railway not be cheaper if the earthworks are already done and track relayed for a large part of it?
Because you add cost because HS2 is right alongside and the earthworks being complete saves some money but those two things merely balance out?

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To bring this back to HS2 ph2A, building it and upgrading Crewe station to enable splitting/joining 400m trains is the best way to get more passengers into rail.
This adds a lot of operational risk.

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Speed differences kill capacity
I am talking only about the junction for them to turn off.

That said after looking at one.network it looks like actually the extremely long 50mph section on the M42 is mostly about road improvements and not about HS2 itself. Really it looks like good work to coordinate those together, but poor communication about what is happening.
 
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HSTEd

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I don't think there is much cost between a 160km/h unit and a 249km/h unit in cost terms. Obviously 249 to 300 is a much smaller gap in capacity terms.

But honestly, modern multiple units accelerate so fast, no point not just ordering 300km/h for everything if you are going down that route.
 

Cowley

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This thread isn’t for going over how HS2 is being built. So from here on can we get back on topic please.

Thanks
 

AlexSJW

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What we are seeing is politicing. HS2 is red rag to bull, so any thought of re-introducing sections of it is a political hot potato. By the time NPR is advanced enough to inform decisions on further high-speed infrastructure such as a Birmingham–Manchester line HS2 will already be operational delivering greatly improved journey times and capacity between London, Birmingham and the principal North-West and Scottish cities. These services will represent a step-change over the pre-HS2 WCML services.

By then a much desired Stafford bypass running off HS2 at Hansacre may have been built, or way into such a project, taking the Liverpool and Scottish cities with the London/Birmingham-Manchester high-speed trains on upgraded lines via Stoke removing them from the WCML entirely, improving capacity. Stoke would naturally benefit, a plus for the government. By then the case for a new Birmingham-Manchester greenfield high-speed route would be near nil. This is all plain to see
 

Krokodil

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HS2 is red rag to bull, so any thought of re-introducing sections of it is a political hot potato.
Only if you call it "HS2". Much easier to slip innocuous-sounding projects like a Stafford Bypass", "Crewe Remodelling" and "South Manchester Relief Line" under the taboids' radar.
 

AlexSJW

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Only if you call it "HS2". Much easier to slip innocuous-sounding projects like a Stafford Bypass", "Crewe Remodelling" and "South Manchester Relief Line" under the taboids' radar.
No sane politician will use any alignment of the old HS2 phase 2a. The many existing rail corridors into Manchester, and also Liverpool, are adequate with incremental upgrades of: faster trains, signals and bottleneck removal. It looks like no new tracks will be laid, apart from maybe extending a short section from Handsacre to the Colwich-Stone line and a new section of track from south of Stone to the WCML north of Norton Bridge, creating a long awaited Stafford bypass. Network Rail have already produced a number of schemes for this bypass. Manchester bound trains from the south look like they will not use it routing via the shorter Stoke route.
 

AndrewE

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What we are seeing is politicing. HS2 is red rag to bull, so any thought of re-introducing sections of it is a political hot potato. By the time NPR is advanced enough to inform decisions on further high-speed infrastructure such as a Birmingham–Manchester line HS2 will already be operational delivering greatly improved journey times and capacity between London, Birmingham and the principal North-West and Scottish cities. These services will represent a step-change over the pre-HS2 WCML services.
Really? On completion of the first bit of the route to Brum all London and Birmingham trains will still have to fit through the existing infrastructure to get anywhere further north - and if HS2 trains have less capacity than current Pendolinos then we will have actually shot ourselves in the foot by cutting capacity between the real North and London.
 

The Planner

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No sane politician will use any alignment of the old HS2 phase 2a.
Of course they will. Why start from scratch when the thing is effectively detailed designed.
The many existing rail corridors into Manchester, and also Liverpool, are adequate with incremental upgrades of: faster trains, signals and bottleneck removal. It looks like no new tracks will be laid, apart from maybe extending a short section from Handsacre to the Colwich-Stone line and a new section of track from south of Stone to the WCML north of Norton Bridge, creating a long awaited Stafford bypass. Network Rail have already produced a number of schemes for this bypass. Manchester bound trains from the south look like they will not use it routing via the shorter Stoke route.
The bottlenecks are hugely expensive to sort, you are either looking at tunnels or grade seperation of junctions such at Edgeley and Slade Lane. The Stafford bypass has existed as a plan for the best part of 30 years, before HS2. It was a new line from just north of Rugeley Trent Valley.
 

AlexSJW

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Of course they will. Why start from scratch when the thing is effectively detailed designed.
The word ''HS2'' is politically toxic. Recall that Johnson was about to drop it but only went ahead because some sections were advanced in construction. Although the Old Oak Common to Aylesbury section could have been retained with stations added and ditch the rest. It could have run onto an upgraded Chiltern line keeping the Birmingham/West Mids trains off the WCML, adding to the overall network. But he reluctantly went ahead. His advisor Andrew Gilligan told him to ditch it as it was unneeded and politically toxic.

HS2 Phase 2a is not likely to be used in practice, because it now fails to address the operational constraints. Phase 2a now can only be a high-speed extension north of Birmingham, but in doing so it duplicates capacity where it is least needed, while leaving the most congested and operationally complex sections of the WCML untouched. Network Rail has long identified the Stafford area as a critical bottleneck on the Midlands section of the WCML, which if a bypass is built correctly sending Manchester services via Stoke will preclude Phase 2a.
 

AlexSJW

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Really? On completion of the first bit of the route to Brum all London and Birmingham trains will still have to fit through the existing infrastructure to get anywhere further north - and if HS2 trains have less capacity than current Pendolinos then we will have actually shot ourselves in the foot by cutting capacity between the real North and London.
Once completed to Handsacre HS2 is fine. A Stafford bypass is essential sending the Liverpool and Scottish trains via the bypass and Manchester trains via Stoke being the cherry on the top. When leading Network Rail Lord Hendy said HS2 should not have been a separate entity, just an extension of the network. Now holding the Rail Minister title he may drop the toxic word HS2 and use a mix of rolling stock on the line. Upgraded Pendolinos have been proposed to run on the track, as they run faster on the existing WCML.
The word is. Not the choice of alignment in a patch of Staffordshire.
The whole HS2 shebang was an still is toxic.
 
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SCDR_WMR

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Once completed to Handsacre HS2 is fine. A Stafford byass is essential being the cherry on the top. When leading Network Rail Lord Hendy said HS2 should not have been a separate entity, just an extension of the network. Now holding the Rail Minister title he may drop the toxic word HS2 and use a mix of rolling stock on the line. Upgraded Pendolinos have been proposed to run on the track.

The whole HS2 shebang was an still is toxic.
This is very sensationalist. Are you a Daily Mail reporter?

On a serious note, the Stafford bypass is not a cherry on the top at all. It is a very necessary part of the future rail network.
 

AlexSJW

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This is very sensationalist. Are you a Daily Mail reporter?

On a serious note, the Stafford bypass is not a cherry on the top at all. It is a very necessary part of the future rail network.
They could ignore a Stafford bypass, and did building the Norton Bridge junction thinking that would solve matters - the expensive project could only improve matters for a short time which proved to be the case. Penny wise pound foolish. The Stafford bypass is a necessary part of the future rail network, but that does not mean they will build it. It would be a fantastic enhancement.
 
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The Planner

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The word ''HS2'' is politically toxic. Recall that Johnson was about to drop it but only went ahead because some sections were advanced in construction. Although the Old Oak Common to Aylesbury section could have been retained with stations added and ditch the rest. It could have run onto an upgraded Chiltern line keeping the Birmingham/West Mids trains off the WCML, adding to the overall network. But he reluctantly went ahead. His advisor Andrew Gilligan told him to ditch it as it was unneeded and politically toxic.
How? it goes nowhere near the Chiltern mainline near Aylesbury and there wouldn't be enough capacity at either ends of the Chilterns to deal with that.
HS2 Phase 2a is not likely to be used in practice, because it now fails to address the operational constraints. Phase 2a now can only be a high-speed extension north of Birmingham, but in doing so it duplicates capacity where it is least needed, while leaving the most congested and operationally complex sections of the WCML untouched. Network Rail has long identified the Stafford area as a critical bottleneck on the Midlands section of the WCML, which if a bypass is built correctly sending Manchester services via Stoke will preclude Phase 2a.
Wrong, 2A is imperative regardless of what name you give it. You could call it Susan if you wanted. Stafford was a problem before West Coast Route Mod at the turn of the century, not because of HS2.

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Once completed to Handsacre HS2 is fine. A Stafford bypass is essential sending the Liverpool and Scottish trains via the bypass and Manchester trains via Stoke being the cherry on the top. When leading Network Rail Lord Hendy said HS2 should not have been a separate entity, just an extension of the network. Now holding the Rail Minister title he may drop the toxic word HS2 and use a mix of rolling stock on the line. Upgraded Pendolinos have been proposed to run on the track, as they run faster on the existing WCML.

The whole HS2 shebang was an still is toxic.
Pendolinos will be heading towards life expired by the time Phase 1 opens. They will be nigh on 30-35 years old.
 

MatthewHutton

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No sane politician will use any alignment of the old HS2 phase 2a. The many existing rail corridors into Manchester, and also Liverpool, are adequate with incremental upgrades of: faster trains, signals and bottleneck removal.
If you want to do the Stafford bypass the sensible thing is to stick with the right of way set aside for HS2 phase 2a and to do at least the bottom 3/4s.

The extra cost to do the short extra bit to connect up with phase 1 is really pretty small.

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Stafford was a problem before West Coast Route Mod at the turn of the century, not because of HS2.
If only because it goes down to 2 tracks there and the two flat junctions. And you can’t widen it next to it as it’s an AONB.

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Stafford Bypass
Agreed. And do at least a stop at Stoke by the M6, it’s the best intermediate stop that isn’t in the plan as you get the M6 and a rail crossing in the same place.

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Of course they will. Why start from scratch when the thing is effectively detailed designed
You do need to do some further design to bring it down to LGV Sud Est standards so the costs are more sensible. While it probably makes sense to stick with the current route horizontally the vertical curves can be increased substantially to reduce the size of earthworks, bridges and tunnels.
 
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MatthewHutton

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The tabloids aren't bright enough to recognise that a "Stafford Bypass" is HS2 2A in all but name.
If you reduce the speed, reduce the price and add at least one stop then to be fair it is quite different.

If needed as well as the vertical curves being larger a higher gradient of up to 3.5% can also be used like LGV Sud Est. You could even go to 4% like Frankfurt Cologne.
 
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