• Our new ticketing site is now live! Using either this or the original site (both powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Restarting HS2a

Status
Not open for further replies.

Trainman40083

Established Member
Joined
29 Jan 2024
Messages
4,520
Location
Derby
But a big part of that is the 60 trains an hour in all directions that you are putting through the Manchester Piccadilly throat, or the capacity constraints south of Manchester that HS2 will address, especially if it is extended north of Stafford.
Yes imagine the main Piccadilly station without most of the Cross Country, West Coast and Transport Pennine. It suggests a reason why nothing else has been done re the Castlefield corridor. Add in longer trains limiting platforms at Oxford Road. You could almost see a tube style /Cross rail frequency there
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

MatthewHutton

Member
Joined
17 Aug 2024
Messages
1,084
Location
Oxford
Yes imagine the main Piccadilly station without most of the Cross Country, West Coast and Transport Pennine. It suggests a reason why nothing else has been done re the Castlefield corridor. Add in longer trains limiting platforms at Oxford Road. You could almost see a tube style /Cross rail frequency there
So I think cross country will still run on the classic line so I am not sure that counts. But transpennine and west coast is what 5 trains an hour between them per direction?

A general purpose regional tunnel would be taking 15 trains per hour per direction or something out of the existing lines. And additionally it would be much cheaper as it’s shorter.

Building a big tunnel under Manchester isn’t going to be cheap by any means. It might even cost more than a Piccadilly - Salford tunnel per kilometre as with that you would probably get away with a 100km/h top speed or less, whereas a big tunnel under Manchester is going to have to be fast.
 

Trainman40083

Established Member
Joined
29 Jan 2024
Messages
4,520
Location
Derby
So I think cross country will still run on the classic line so I am not sure that counts. But transpennine and west coast is what 5 trains an hour between them per direction?

A general purpose regional tunnel would be taking 15 trains per hour per direction or something out of the existing lines. And additionally it would be much cheaper.

Building a big tunnel under Manchester isn’t going to be cheap by any means. It might even cost more than a Piccadilly - Salford tunnel per kilometre as with that you would probably get away with a 100km/h top speed or less, whereas a big tunnel under Manchester is going to have to be fast.
Yet, I could see some form of Cross Country "HS2 line" service that offered a far faster service. I thought the objective for Trans Pennine was every 10 minutes..... But there wasn't room for them all, and some routed via Victoria (which can get quite busy). Indeed a tunnel under Manchester wouldn't be cheap. But would it sort out Manchester' s railway needs for the next 100 years, rather than constraining demand? Time will tell.
 

MatthewHutton

Member
Joined
17 Aug 2024
Messages
1,084
Location
Oxford
Yet, I could see some form of Cross Country "HS2 line" service that offered a far faster service. I thought the objective for Trans Pennine was every 10 minutes..... But there wasn't room for them all, and some routed via Victoria (which can get quite busy). Indeed a tunnel under Manchester wouldn't be cheap. But would it sort out Manchester' s railway needs for the next 100 years, rather than constraining demand? Time will tell.
Using the two existing Liverpool - Manchester lines I think you are probably limited to a service every 15 minutes. But with a Piccadilly-Salford tunnel all of those could definitely serve Piccadilly.
 

Trainman40083

Established Member
Joined
29 Jan 2024
Messages
4,520
Location
Derby
Using the two existing Liverpool - Manchester lines I think you are probably limited to a service every 15 minutes. But with a Piccadilly-Salford tunnel all of those could definitely serve Piccadilly.
I wonder how much of the lines out towards Guide Bridge could be enhanced , for TPE? At least they wouldn't have to go over the Piccadilly throat
 

JamesT

Established Member
Joined
25 Feb 2015
Messages
4,824
I'm not sure that holds anymore. My non-expert recollection is that (among other factors) the geotechnical requirements and hence cost of providing stability for 400km/h were far higher than anticipated. What we don't know is the marginal cost between 200km/h and 300km/h, and between 300km/h and 400km/h. If there is an exponential relationship (again, no geotechnical engineer here), then I suspect the first increment is worth it, but the second probably not.

Cost increases have been driven by high inflation, as well as scope changes, worse ground conditions than expected, and optimism bias.
Digging longer tunnels under the Chilterns to appease the NIMBYS and failing to properly estimate the cost have been major drivers, but those increases would have been the same regardless of the speed.

I would assume given other countries have typically gone for 300km/h or 320km/h that the cost difference between 200 and 300 is relatively small but that the cost difference to a higher speed is larger.
Other countries ‘operate’ at 300 or 320kph, but their lines are designed for faster. The French have been building LGVs at 350kph for some time. The Italians specified the Frecciarossa 1000 to be capable of 360kph back in the 2000s.
 

Krokodil

Established Member
Joined
23 Jan 2023
Messages
6,524
Location
Wales
And that was just phase one. Paris-Marseille is nearly 500 miles, and they may yet extend the high speed line to Nice which is even further.
Paris to Rennes is how far?

I see no reason that extensions to the Central Belt wouldn't be viable in the future. Even if not full new lines, at least in the form of cut offs for the wiggly bits, providing an opportunity for passenger trains to overtake freight on the steeply graded sections.
 

MatthewHutton

Member
Joined
17 Aug 2024
Messages
1,084
Location
Oxford
Digging longer tunnels under the Chilterns to appease the NIMBYS a
AKA putting in inadequate numbers of intermediate stops.
And failing to properly estimate the cost have been major drivers, but those increases would have been the same regardless of the speed.
Maybe some of that is because they thought a speed of 400km/h would only cost 9% more than 300 and they were wrong?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

I see no reason that extensions to the Central Belt wouldn't be viable in the future.
Yes but that is also the very limit of what you could even slightly plausibly do. And most likely it’s a Morpeth bypass and other small changes rather than a whole new line.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Paris to Rennes is how far?
So the shortest limit of plausibility French route is about the same distance as London-Preston.
 
Last edited:

HSTEd

Veteran Member
Joined
14 Jul 2011
Messages
20,262
Digging longer tunnels under the Chilterns to appease the NIMBYS and failing to properly estimate the cost have been major drivers, but those increases would have been the same regardless of the speed.
I doubt think the tunnels really have been major drivers. Boring has gone pretty well and they are fairly run of the mill in tunneling terms (even if they had odd ventilation and pressure suppression arrangements).
I don't think you can just blindly assume that all HS2 costs were underestimated by the same amount, if the methodology is flawed hten none of the figures can really be trusted.

Tunneling is certainly a big ticket item, but it gets you out of a bunch of small ticket items involving surface construction.
Moving every power line, water and gas main, numerous roads with temporary bridges and diversions, huge amounts of land purchase and moving earth around and all that. Even before you get to the public engagement, the more things you interact with the more expensive and harder the job gets.

Instead you get a small number of very well paid people babysitting a machine for the most part. Then once thats done you have a route to lay track on that interacts with little else. I know there is more to it than that but still less stuff to worry about than on the surface.
 

Krokodil

Established Member
Joined
23 Jan 2023
Messages
6,524
Location
Wales
So the shortest limit of plausibility French route is about the same distance as London-Preston.
Rennes was itself an extension, it used to be even shorter, terminating for several decades at Le Mans. Le Mans is roughly the same distance as Birmingham, but with a fraction of the population. It is a branch from another line, but so too will be Birmingham.
 

slowroad

Member
Joined
23 Jul 2021
Messages
371
Location
Wales
Rennes was itself an extension, it used to be even shorter, terminating for several decades at Le Mans. Le Mans is roughly the same distance as Birmingham, but with a fraction of the population. It is a branch from another line, but so too will be Birmingham.
A branch from another much longer line - and there’s the point. England is a small country- the strategic case for very high speed rail is weak.
 

MatthewHutton

Member
Joined
17 Aug 2024
Messages
1,084
Location
Oxford
Rennes was itself an extension, it used to be even shorter, terminating for several decades at Le Mans. Le Mans is roughly the same distance as Birmingham, but with a fraction of the population. It is a branch from another line, but so too will be Birmingham.
The French do have the advantage that their rural population density is much much lower than Britains, they also had (and by British standards still have) oodles of capacity going into Paris, both of those allowed them to build high speed lines extremely cheaply.

They also have slower classic lines so the speedup is more impressive.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Even before you get to the public engagement,
I know we agree on this. But for others the fact that you started off with 95% of the population on the route opposed definitely makes this more expensive. Especially when with the 10km curve radius and 56km vertical curve radius it’s nigh on impossible to adjust the route over public concerns.
 
Last edited:

Mikey C

Established Member
Joined
11 Feb 2013
Messages
8,228
Building a 400km/h line rather than 300km/h line, will have impacted the route taken. HS1 is a 300km/h route, and designed to follow existing lines and roads as much as possible, which isn't the fastest route, but made it cheaper and less controversial.
 

FMerrymon

Member
Joined
11 Dec 2024
Messages
362
Location
Reading
Building a 400km/h line rather than 300km/h line, will have impacted the route taken. HS1 is a 300km/h route, and designed to follow existing lines and roads as much as possible, which isn't the fastest route, but made it cheaper and less controversial.

Hs2 east was going to follow existing roads, phase 1 was more difficult as even at slower speeds, the m40 too curvy and would create islands of land. M2 and m20 quite straight.

Phase 1 follows at least 2 former railway alignments.
 

Krokodil

Established Member
Joined
23 Jan 2023
Messages
6,524
Location
Wales
A branch from another much longer line
The much longer line in the British equivalent being the connection north. But it wasn't a much longer line when it opened, was it? It opened to Tours in 1990 and the extension to Bordeaux wasn't opened until 2017.
 

HSTEd

Veteran Member
Joined
14 Jul 2011
Messages
20,262
Phase 1 follows at least 2 former railway alignments.
Former railway alignments, at least one of which (GCML) is barely in living memory at this point.

I don't think "There was a railway somewhat near here 60 years ago" is really a persuasive argument to a large portion of the population, if I'm honest.
 
Last edited:

slowroad

Member
Joined
23 Jul 2021
Messages
371
Location
Wales
The much longer line in the British equivalent being the connection north. But it wasn't a much longer line when it opened, was it? It opened to Tours in 1990 and the extension to Bordeaux wasn't opened until 2017.
The case rested on the staged completion of a long line with branches (many at conventional speed, initially at least), with consequent time savings only realisable in a geographically large country.

In any case, we are now told that the case for HS2 rests on capacity not speed.
 

MatthewHutton

Member
Joined
17 Aug 2024
Messages
1,084
Location
Oxford
The much longer line in the British equivalent being the connection north. But it wasn't a much longer line when it opened, was it? It opened to Tours in 1990 and the extension to Bordeaux wasn't opened until 2017.
With LGV Est which was built to 350km/h standards it is at least somewhat plausible that eventually the high speed line might be extended through to Budapest with Stuttgart, Munich, Salzburg, Vienna and Bratislava being intermediate stopping points along the route.

And in terms of Paris-Budapest 350km/h running gives you a 45 minute speed up which is at least somewhat useful.

The line through to Bordeaux if it has been built to 350km/h might produce a time saving of 35 minutes once it is extended to Madrid.
 
Last edited:

FMerrymon

Member
Joined
11 Dec 2024
Messages
362
Location
Reading
Former railway alignments, at least one of which (GCML) is barely in living memory at this point.

I don't think "There was a railway somewhat near here 60 years ago" is really a persuasive argument to a large portion of the population, if I'm honest.

Some are never happy. It would be fantasy to think that building along the m40 wouldnt get the nimbys out in force too. The point was there were alignments to use already and in the case of the former gcr, provided a chance to make the Aylesbury link more affordable.
 

MatthewHutton

Member
Joined
17 Aug 2024
Messages
1,084
Location
Oxford
Some are never happy. It would be fantasy to think that building along the m40 wouldnt get the nimbys out in force too. The point was there were alignments to use already and in the case of the former gcr, provided a chance to make the Aylesbury link more affordable.
Building along the M40 which is already a noisy scar on the landscape would have definitely attracted less opposition than the current route.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

provided a chance to make the Aylesbury link more affordable.
The current proposal for the Aylesbury link (which includes a ludicrous amount of extras and gold plating) is £5bn.

There’s no evidence in the proposal that there is any cost reduction to it from the existence of HS2.
 

Trainbike46

Established Member
Joined
18 Sep 2021
Messages
4,359
Location
belfast
Building along the M40 which is already a noisy scar on the landscape would have definitely attracted less opposition than the current route.
You're probably right on that, but would it have been possible to follow the M40 with a 300/320km/h alignment?

If the post upthread saying it wasn't is correct, then it is a rather irrelevant point
 

MatthewHutton

Member
Joined
17 Aug 2024
Messages
1,084
Location
Oxford
You're probably right on that, but would it have been possible to follow the M40 with a 300/320km/h alignment?

If the post upthread saying it wasn't is correct, then it is a rather irrelevant point
CPRE believe that an M1 alignment plus four tracking the classic line into Birmingham and a Stafford bypass was possible for £15bn in 2019.

Labour in government started HS2, so in office again it should admit its error and cancel it. Labour’s last transport secretary, Lord Adonis, required a proposal for HS2 from London to the West Midlands to be produced before the 2010 general election. His error was to rush out and impose a single plan. Less damaging and cheaper alternatives were disregarded.

The Campaign to Protect Rural England (CPRE) submitted one – a new 106-mile line alongside the M1 from London to Rugby and Leicester to French high-speed standard, plus a rail bypass of Stafford costed by Network Rail in 2008, and four-tracking the line between Coventry and Birmingham. This was presented to Labour, then to the Cameron government, to parliament, to the Oakervee review and to Boris Johnson’s staff in 2019.

CPRE’s plan, at 2019 prices, cost £14bn-15bn. It used known design parameters, met all needs for more capacity, minimised environmental impact and would have opened by 2032. It was never evaluated. Parliament’s committees refused to hear alternatives. Both parties are responsible for where we are now.
 

JamesT

Established Member
Joined
25 Feb 2015
Messages
4,824
Building along the M40 which is already a noisy scar on the landscape would have definitely attracted less opposition than the current route.
You'd be surprised. I suggest you look into the history of the M40, where the route had to be altered due to vehement opposition.
There's opposition to building just on the other side of a junction: https://www.banburyguardian.co.uk/n...-fighting-to-prevent-more-development-3357449
The Campaign for the Protection of Rural England (CPRE) has added a strong voice to many others in opposition to further development on the eastern side of the M40 on the A361. The group says development decisions have made Banbury a 'warehouse town' with the most unpleasant outlook of any junction on the M40.
There may be a motorway there already, but that's no guarantee that residents will accept any further encroachment on the green spaces it runs through.
 

Trainbike46

Established Member
Joined
18 Sep 2021
Messages
4,359
Location
belfast
You'd be surprised. I suggest you look into the history of the M40, where the route had to be altered due to vehement opposition.
There's opposition to building just on the other side of a junction: https://www.banburyguardian.co.uk/n...-fighting-to-prevent-more-development-3357449
There may be a motorway there already, but that's no guarantee that residents will accept any further encroachment on the green spaces it runs through.
And to show a railway example, the betuweroute freight railway in the Netherlands faced fierce opposition despite almost entirely following the A15 motorway.
 

MatthewHutton

Member
Joined
17 Aug 2024
Messages
1,084
Location
Oxford
There may be a motorway there already, but that's no guarantee that residents will accept any further encroachment on the green spaces it runs through.
I have literally quoted the chief NIMBY organisation supporting an M1 alignment.
You'd be surprised. I suggest you look into the history of the M40, where the route had to be altered due to vehement opposition
You mean Otmoor where they wanted to build it through a foggy nature reserve. Yes that was bonkers.
 

zwk500

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Jan 2020
Messages
18,401
Location
Northampton
There may be a motorway there already, but that's no guarantee that residents will accept any further encroachment on the green spaces it runs through.
Given how fiercely motorway widening projects are opposed, I think it's guaranteed that residents will not accept any further expansion of the transport corridor.
 

The Planner

Veteran Member
Joined
15 Apr 2008
Messages
19,625
Also remember that the first section of the M40 was late 60s with the rest up towards Oxford around 1974. Even the Lewknor cutting has faded back in that time.
 

MatthewHutton

Member
Joined
17 Aug 2024
Messages
1,084
Location
Oxford
And to show a railway example, the betuweroute freight railway in the Netherlands faced fierce opposition despite almost entirely following the A15 motorway
Presumably because it didn’t serve passenger trains.

Like look honestly you were always going to see opposition- especially as you couldn’t realistically have a station south of Aylesbury so it was full of London commuters.

What you could avoid was the volume of opposition. You didn’t have to have 95% of the people on the route opposing.
 

MatthewHutton

Member
Joined
17 Aug 2024
Messages
1,084
Location
Oxford
Given how fiercely motorway widening projects are opposed, I think it's guaranteed that residents will not accept any further expansion of the transport corridor.
Motorways are extremely noisy. Much more so than a rail line.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

M1 doesn't run through the Oxfordshire chilterns though. Key point of the 'M' in NIMBY is that they're often quite happy for it to be in somebody else's backyard
The CPRE is a national organisation.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top