The early 15x fleets are basic DMU's and hence will run "forever", like the better first generation units, the time and money being spent on corrosion repairs tells you they will remain sometime yet to repay that outlay. The other reason they will last is because they have too as there is no other option beyond cutting services.
Given the current published tender timescales Northern will not start replacing the early 15x fleets in significant numbers until 2032 so everyone knows that and can plan for it. The scrapping of the TfW 150's has released parts to increase the spares floats for the remaining fleets.
Having spares and parts is one thing, growth on lines where 2 car units are being utilised is an entirely different problem.
They will run out of units to service the growth, growth they (Northern) are targeting.
What we have now is an overcrowded service, that plus corrosion issues, issues with 769 and 195 units and yes a lack of spare diesel units sounds like a problem just waiting to happen.
Whilst I get cost, training issues etc.. all this work should have been done 5 years ago. They should be looking at intermediate solutions in the meantime, instead handing Lumo a fleet of diesel units and retiring others they should have been handed to TPE to exchange for 185 fleet that could’ve been sent to Northern.
I don’t know the technical and training issues around this but what it doesn’t look like is a joined up railway thinking in a joined up way, it’s every TOC for themselves.
There are solutions I’m sure but is the entire railway sitting down and talking to each other on how to solve it or working in isolation, blocked by legacy regulations?
There’s a problem coming down the road for Northern and “we don’t have enough diesel units” or “we can make these units last with spares” isn’t going to cut it for the travelling public.