Thoughts on the Trump presidency

[nw1]

But have you factored in that enough voters may vote against the Republicans because of the economic pain and all the other issues that the current administration are causing that are upsetting voters? Those factors have to be taken into account as well as the Democratic party getting it's act together and putting forward a charismatic presidential nominee with a wide appeal.

Also, Vance doesn't have the cult leader appeal that Trump does, and therefore might attract less votes from followers of the Trump cult.

The interesting question is, when Trump goes (assuming he doesn't somehow try for a 3rd term), will Trumpism go with him, given the cult leader will no longer be there? Will the Republican Party return to having some semblance of sanity?

Or might we get President Elon in 2028, God help us?

 

[Harpo]

Also, Vance doesn't have the cult leader appeal

I’d certainly call him a cult.

 

[Gloster]

Also, Vance doesn't have the cult leader appeal that Trump does, and therefore might attract less votes from followers of the Trump cult.

The interesting question is, when Trump goes (assuming he doesn't somehow try for a 3rd term), will Trumpism go with him, given the cult leader will no longer be there?

As I have said with tedious frequency, my opinion is that the people behind Trump are working to rig the system so that they stay in power whatever; there will be an illusion of democratic choice that will be enough to keep enough of the huddled masses quiet and not forming revolutionary huddles. Their main problem is that they reckoned on four years with Trump’s popularity seeing the MAGA Republicans through the 2026 elections, but Trump’s failing health may leave them with no choice but to run with the less popular Vance. They are therefore pushing their plans through as fast as they can so that they will be sufficiently far advanced by the elections, even if it makes their scheming a bit more obvious.

Trumpism will be dumped when they have got their way: it is a means to an end, their end.

 

[thenorthern]

According to the "Trump Golf Tracker" calendar, he hasn't played golf at all in December 2025 (though did have a long playing streak over Thanksgiving). A sign of his ailing health?

Could be very well be, the problem is the Democrats shot themselves in the foot with Joe Biden. Under normal circumstances a president's failing health would be something that would be something the opposition would use against the administration. However given for years the Democrats were in denial about Biden's cognative decline their hands are tied on the issue.

We live in interesting times.

 

[simonw]

Also, Vance doesn't have the cult leader appeal that Trump does, and therefore might attract less votes from followers of the Trump cult.

The interesting question is, when Trump goes (assuming he doesn't somehow try for a 3rd term), will Trumpism go with him, given the cult leader will no longer be there? Will the Republican Party return to having some semblance of sanity?

Or might we get President Elon in 2028, God help us?

Elon was born outside the US so currently is barred by the constitution from being president.

 

[brad465]

Could be very well be, the problem is the Democrats shot themselves in the foot with Joe Biden. Under normal circumstances a president's failing health would be something that would be something the opposition would use against the administration. However given for years the Democrats were in denial about Biden's cognative decline their hands are tied on the issue.

We live in interesting times.

If Trump dies in office from natural causes the Democrats will get some reprieve here: they can at least say they saw the light and pressured Biden to withdraw, which he then did, whereas Trump stayed put.

But have you factored in that enough voters may vote against the Republicans because of the economic pain and all the other issues that the current administration are causing that are upsetting voters? Those factors have to be taken into account as well as the Democratic party getting it's act together and putting forward a charismatic presidential nominee with a wide appeal.

One thing we should never underestimate is the power of abstentionist voters: the number of voters who swing between parties is relatively low, but what is more common is voters switching from voting for x to abstaining, or from abstaining to voting for y. These voters don't appear very easily in voting records (even overall turnout doesn't reveal much), yet they are a very influential group.

 

[Gloster]

One thing we should never underestimate is the power of abstentionist voters: the number of voters who swing between parties is relatively low, but what is more common is voters switching from voting for x to abstaining, or from abstaining to voting for y. These voters don't appear very easily in voting records (even overall turnout doesn't reveal much), yet they are a very influential group.

Entirely agree. The situation has been like this for a few years, but the last couple have seen even greater polarisation. There really are very few swing voters, except of the even further right or left (well, maybe not the latter) variety. It is, as you say, vote for X or don’t vote, but nothing will make them vote for Y.

 

[thenorthern]

Elon was born outside the US so currently is barred by the constitution from being president.

Yep Article Two, Section 1 of the constitution although the definition of a natural born citizen has never been settled by the Supreme Court I don't think any court would rule Elon Musk as a natural born citizen.

If Trump dies in office from natural causes the Democrats will get some reprieve here: they can at least say they saw the light and pressured Biden to withdraw, which he then did, whereas Trump stayed put.



One thing we should never underestimate is the power of abstentionist voters: the number of voters who swing between parties is relatively low, but what is more common is voters switching from voting for x to abstaining, or from abstaining to voting for y. These voters don't appear very easily in voting records (even overall turnout doesn't reveal much), yet they are a very influential group.

It's a bit of a stretch to say he saw the light and withdrew. He didn't want to withdraw but in the end he had no choice.

Fair point about abstaining, at the British election last year turnout was 59.7% which is only marginally higher than the 59.4% we had in 2001 which was the lowest since 1918. The main explanation of turnout being so low in 2001 was that people thought there would be a second Labour landslide so saw no point in voting. In 2024 the main explanation for such a low turnout was voters just didn't like the choice that was on offer.

 

[ainsworth74]

Elon was born outside the US so currently is barred by the constitution from being president.

And so was Obama and that didn't stop him!

...

Is probably what certain cult members would say rather than being the truth of the situation

It's a bit of a stretch to say he saw the light and withdrew. He didn't want to withdraw but in the end he had no choice.

Indeed, I'm sure I've read somewhere or other that he's given an interview saying that it was a mistake for him to withdraw and if he'd stayed in the race he'd have won. Delusional. Biden has successfully tarnished what was, until then, an overall fairly successful political career. If he'd said he was standing down after one term in mid-2023 he'd probably be remembered fairly fondly, instead his own ego and the failure of those around him to tell him he wasn't fit to stand again played an important part in delivering us this.

 

[thenorthern]

And so was Obama and that didn't stop him!

...

Is probably what certain cult members would say rather than being the truth of the situation


Indeed, I'm sure I've read somewhere or other that he's given an interview saying that it was a mistake for him to withdraw and if he'd stayed in the race he'd have won. Delusional. Biden has successfully tarnished what was, until then, an overall fairly successful political career. If he'd said he was standing down after one term in mid-2023 he'd probably be remembered fairly fondly, instead his own ego and the failure of those around him to tell him he wasn't fit to stand again played an important part in delivering us this.

Slight correction on the "Birthers" the movement started in 2007 by Hillary Clinton supporters although the Birther movement was never endorsed or supported by the official Clinon campaign. It was popularised by Donald Trump in 2011 who did endorse the notion that Obama was not born in the US. Despite the fact that the conspiracy theory has been debunked many times many Trump supporters don't accept it.

Originally in 2020 Biden hinted he would only run for a single term, it wasn't until 2023 that he confirmed he planned to run for a second term. There are many things. Biden 2024 caused a lot of issues for the Democrats. First was that the Democrats could no longer claim Trump was a "threat to democracy" given Biden had won the primaries but in the end Kamala was appointed to the role of nominee without a vote. Secondly Biden pardoning his son despite pledging not to do so. Biden cited the fact that he thought "raw politics has infected this process and it led to a miscarriage of justice". The problem for the Democrats was when Trump pardoned the January 6th rioters the Democrats has no leg to stand on.

There were other things like in October 2024 when a comedian called Puerto Rico a "floating island of garbage" at a Trump rally. Biden then in a video criticised Trump and called Trump supporters "garbage" which didn't go down well. We then had Trump in his garbage truck and his supporters dressing up as garbage collectors. Kamala Harris then had to go on the defensive saying that Biden didn't think less of Trump voters compared to her voters. All this was avoidable.

As you say he should have announced he wasn't going to run for a second term and gone quietly. He ruined a very long career and possibly the chances for his party for years to come.

 

[adc82140]

A certain Boris Johnson was born in New York, so could theoretically stand. That's a thought to put you off your breakfast.

 

[JamesT]

A certain Boris Johnson was born in New York, so could theoretically stand. That's a thought to put you off your breakfast.

Not in the next election. As well as the matter of Boris having renounced his US citizenship, there’s also a requirement that a candidate has been resident in the US for 14 years. I don’t believe he managed more than a few years as a child, so there would be plenty of warning if he ever decided that was his goal.

 

[nw1]

As well as the matter of Boris having renounced his US citizenship,

A strange thing to do if you ask me - why give up rights?

 

[jon0844]

A strange thing to do if you ask me - why give up rights?

Most likely for tax reasons?

 

[nw1]

Administration claiming to be pro-free speech bans people from entering country because of their opinions and actions:

UK social media campaigners among five denied US visas

The Trump administration bans five people who have called for tech regulation from entering the country.

www.bbc.co.uk

From the above:

The US billed the measures as a response to people and organisations that have campaigned for restrictions on American tech firms, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying they belonged to a "global censorship-industrial complex".

He said: "President Trump has been clear that his America First foreign policy rejects violations of American sovereignty. Extraterritorial overreach by foreign censors targeting American speech is no exception."

Rubio really is a pathetic, sycophantic puppet, isn't he?
To be honest, I'd sack the likes of Rubio. People like him just spout the party line and to be quite honest, could be replaced by a computer program which could do the same job of parroting the party line for much less money.

The Republicans are supposed to be about value for the taxpayer, aren't they? In which case "drain the swamp" and sack every single one of these sycophants. They contribute just about nothing to sorting out the US's problems.

 

[Gloster]

A strange thing to do if you ask me - why give up rights?

Most likely for tax reasons?

Apparently the US tax authorities wanted him to pay Capital Gains Tax on the sale of his Islington home and he didn’t like that. It may not have been the only reason, but it appears to have been the tipping point. This wasn’t until circa 2015.

 

[nw1]

What will Trump get named after himself next? A new Interstate bridge?

I always thought Storm Donald would be a good name for a big wind storm that forms off the US coast and head over to Europe. It could then be followed by Storm Elon as the next in the sequence.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Jan 2026 ==

Apparently the US tax authorities wanted him to pay Capital Gains Tax on the sale of his Islington home and he didn’t like that. It may not have been the only reason, but it appears to have been the tipping point. This wasn’t until circa 2015.

To be fair, I can see his (Boris') point. Seems a bit rich of the US government to demand tax off the sale of a UK home of a UK resident. It would be fair to pay the US government tax from the sale of a US home of his, but not so sure for one here.

Is this general, incidentally? For example if you are a UK/Irish citizen and sell a home in whichever country you were resident in, would both countries expect tax paid from the sale of the home?

 

[Tester]

To be fair, I can see his (Boris') point. Seems a bit rich of the US government to demand tax off the sale of a UK home of a UK resident. It would be fair to pay the US government tax from the sale of a US home of his, but not so sure for one here.

Is this general, incidentally? For example if you are a UK/Irish citizen and sell a home in whichever country you were resident in, would both countries expect tax paid from the sale of the home?

It's complicated.

The US is an international outlier in taxing non-resident citizens on non-US matters, so generally no, but it's very dangerous to make assumptions.

My understanding is that the US now imposes significant costs on those wishing to renounce citizenship - something we would perhaps expect more from Iron Curtain era countries.

 

[Gloster]

Is this general, incidentally? For example if you are a UK/Irish citizen and sell a home in whichever country you were resident in, would both countries expect tax paid from the sale of the home?

I think that this was part of the point. The Islington house was his main residence and would not have been taxed by the UK authorities, so one can see Johnson’s objection there. However, with Johnson’s somewhat tangled life and MP’s habit of flipping houses, who can be quite sure which residence was a main one?

 

[brad465]

I always thought Storm Donald would be a good name for a big wind storm that forms off the US coast and head over to Europe. It could then be followed by Storm Elon as the next in the sequence.

Alternatively, if you want to troll him, have Storm Daniels followed by Storm Epstein.

 

[najaB]

A strange thing to do if you ask me - why give up rights?

Tax. US citizens are liable for US federal taxes regardless of where they live. There are, of course, ways to avoid paying most of them but eventually Uncle Sam will come for what he thinks is his.

 

[cb a1]

It's complicated.

The US is an international outlier in taxing non-resident citizens on non-US matters, so generally no, but it's very dangerous to make assumptions.

My understanding is that the US now imposes significant costs on those wishing to renounce citizenship - something we would perhaps expect more from Iron Curtain era countries.

This tax came to my mind ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reich_Flight_Tax

"The Reich Flight Tax (German: Reichsfluchtsteuer) was a German capital control law implemented in 1931 to stem capital flight from the German Reich. After seizing power, the Nazis used the law to prevent emigrants from moving money out of the country."

 

[thenorthern]

Not in the next election. As well as the matter of Boris having renounced his US citizenship, there’s also a requirement that a candidate has been resident in the US for 14 years. I don’t believe he managed more than a few years as a child, so there would be plenty of warning if he ever decided that was his goal.

He was born in June 1964 and moved to the United Kingdom in September 1964. His family then returned to the US in 1966 and then back to the UK in 1969. So well below the 14 year threshold.

A strange thing to do if you ask me - why give up rights?

Most likely for tax reasons?

Apparently the US tax authorities wanted him to pay Capital Gains Tax on the sale of his Islington home and he didn’t like that. It may not have been the only reason, but it appears to have been the tipping point. This wasn’t until circa 2015.

Officially, he claimed that he gave up his US Citizenship in 2016 to show loyalty to the United Kingdom. Given he had ambitions to be Prime Minister and given he was Foreign Secretary at the time it would be questionable if he was loyal to the United Kingdom or elsewhere. I know all Tony Blair's children have Irish passports which they are entitled to as Blair's mother was born in Donegal. Tony Blair himself could easily get Irish citizenship but has chosen not to as doing to would have questioned his loyalty to the United Kingdom.

Regarding Boris though the main reason he gave up his US citizenship would have been tax. As others have mentioned he had a dispute with the IRS over tax which he eventually paid. As others have mentioned US citizens are liable for tax regardless of where they live in the world. It's not uncommon for businesspeople with US Citizenship resident abroad to renounce their citizenship to avoid tax.

 

[MP33]

There is no agreement between the UK and USA regarding Income Tax. With the countries that the UK has an agreement with. Means that any Income Tax paid on overseas earnings, does not need to be paid again to Revenue and Customs. Even if the overseas rate is zero.

 

[thenorthern]

There is no agreement between the UK and USA regarding Income Tax. With the countries that the UK has an agreement with. Means that any Income Tax paid on overseas earnings, does not need to be paid again to Revenue and Customs. Even if the overseas rate is zero.

There is an agreement with the UK and US on income tax. Also in regards double income tax as far as I am aware one can can get Foreign Tax Credit Relief on income that has already been taxed abroad but they still have to pay income tax in the UK. In other words a UK resident might get 0% income tax in another country but they will still be liable for the full amount with HMRC.

Tax avoidance for Income Tax is much harder than the media likes to make out. Even for those with Non Dom status which has now been abolished they were still liable for any income earned in the United Kingdom.

 

[brad465]

If any of this is even remotely true, how on earth is he still alive?

Trump says he takes higher daily dose of aspirin than doctors recommend

In an interview about his health, the US president says: "I don't want thick blood pouring through my heart".

www.bbc.co.uk

US President Donald Trump says he is in "perfect" health, takes more aspirin than doctors recommend, uses makeup to cover bruising on his hands, and does not get regular exercise because he finds it "boring".
In a lengthy interview about his health, Trump also told The Wall Street Journal, external that he underwent a CT scan in October, after incorrectly telling reporters that he had undergone a more detailed MRI scan.
Trump, 79, is the oldest president inaugurated in US history, and signs of age have been showing. He has appeared to fall asleep in some meetings and not to be able to hear questions.
The Journal said Trump "expressed irritation about the public debate over his health".

"Let's talk about health again for the 25th time," he said at the start of an "impromptu phone call" as the newspaper prepared to publish a story about Trump's health.
Trump said he had been taking larger than recommended doses of aspirin for the last 25 years, even as he said it caused him to bruise easily.
"They say aspirin is good for thinning out the blood, and I don't want thick blood pouring through my heart," Trump said.
He takes 325mg of aspirin per day, rather than the 81mg dose sometimes recommended by doctors.
"They'd rather have me take the smaller one," Trump said.
But he does not want to switch routines after so many years. "I'm a little superstitious," he said.
The president also talked about the medical scan he received at Walter Reed National Medical Center, which he previously said was an MRI scan.
"It wasn't an MRI," Trump told the Journal. "It was less than that. It was a scan."
A doctor for Trump, Navy Capt Sean Barbabella, said in a statement provided to the Journal that Trump had undergone a CT scan, "to definitively rule out any cardiovascular issues" and that the testing revealed no abnormalities.
After Trump was diagnosed with chronic venous insufficiency, a common condition in older people, he was advised to wear compression socks but he declined.
"I didn't like them," Trump said, adding that he now gets up from his desk more regularly, which has improved swelling in his legs.
Still, the president said he preferred not to do any form of regular exercise, other than golfing.
"I just don't like it. It's boring," Trump said. "To walk on a treadmill or run on a treadmill for hours and hours like some people do, that's not for me."
The president maintained that he had not nodded off during public meetings, saying he closed his eyes at times because he finds it "relaxing". As for the bruising seen on his hands in some photos, Trump said he now carried makeup in case his hand got "whacked".
"I have makeup that's, you know, easy to put on, takes about 10 seconds," he said.
Trump said he did not have trouble with his hearing, and when photographers have taken photos of him when he appears to be sleeping, he said "sometimes they'll take a picture of me blinking".
"And they'll catch me with the blink."
Barbabella said in the statement to the Journal that Trump was in "exceptional health and perfectly suited to execute his duties as Commander in Chief".

 

[styles]

If any of this is even remotely true, how on earth is he still alive?

Trump says he takes higher daily dose of aspirin than doctors recommend

In an interview about his health, the US president says: "I don't want thick blood pouring through my heart".

www.bbc.co.uk

There's actually a reasonable (not definitive) body of evidence which suggests daily aspirin dosing can be beneficial to cardiovascular health.

If he's not on any other blood thinners and doesn't have any known kidney function problems, his body may just be processing it swell. Has to be remembered as well that different people tolerate drugs differently. He doesn't drink either so liver complications will be much less likely.

Some people his age take his daily dose in a mere 4-6 hour window, on clinical instruction.

It's actually the most believable thing I've heard from him in ages.

 

[Annetts key]

It's actually the most believable thing I've heard from him in ages.

The trouble is, you have to be careful what you take from what he says. He lies so much that it's hard to believe anything he says. Plus, he is increasing getting things wrong.

And as I understand it, doctors are more likely to perform a MRI scan rather than a CT scan. But it does depend on why they want to carry out the scan.

I don't think the whole truth will come out until after he has died.

 

[The exile]

A strange thing to do if you ask me - why give up rights?

Sometimes they come with responsibilities as well.

 

[adc82140]

The trouble is, you have to be careful what you take from what he says. He lies so much that it's hard to believe anything he says. Plus, he is increasing getting things wrong.

And as I understand it, doctors are more likely to perform a MRI scan rather than a CT scan. But it does depend on why they want to carry out the scan.

I don't think the whole truth will come out until after he has died.

Professional hat on here:

He likely had a CT Calcium Score scan. This is a low radiation dose scan that looks at the calcium levels in the coronary arteries. This is a routine examination in someone of his age.