ORR estimates of station usage 2024/25

[InTheEastMids]

If metros etc were really transformative in the UK context, surely we would have seen Newcastle outperform after the system opened in the eighties, or, subsequently, Nottingham, or Sheffield……(Manchester may provide a more positive story.)

The challenge is detecting the signal (if it's there) within the noise of all the other stuff going on e.g. deindustrialisation . For what it's worth, in GDP/head terms, Nottingham has seemed to outperform Derby since NET opened in 2004, so hooray for trams! Oh, but Nottingham has not obviously outperformed Coventry or Leicester over the same period so err...

On the other hand I don't see much wrong with this approach, and see more capacity gain still to be captured, particularly via longer trains.

I agree with you, your XC example is a particularly egregious example given that XC serve pretty much exclusively larger stations which have long platforms.

A counterfactual XC example is Birmingham-Leicester/Stansted services. We have run out of easy growth because more trains can't be squeezed through New Street, Wigston and Ely etc. And we can't run longer trains without a huge, costly programme to extend what are mainly 100m platforms at intermediate stations (effectively including New Street as I think the timetable has another short train at the other end of New Street Platform 10).

So progress has stalled, and we await Treasury for the money for Midlands Rail Hub East, the transformational scheme, aware that Governments repeatedly commit to, then defer/kill off these schemes (e.g. MMLE, Piccadilly P15/16, Ely Junction, and so on).

Indeed, outside of London and the SE there are few areas where existing infrastructure capacity is being consistently used to the full

And I think what I'm saying is that we can't use a lot of this capacity to the full because they rely on, or are impacted by ripples from the big pinch points elsewhere on the network - Thameslink Core, Proof House Junction, Ely, Manchester Piccadilly P13/14 - and/or require hugely expensive route-wide platform extensions.

I am aware that the existing rolling stock capacity is being fully used (indeed "over" used) to a much greater extent - which is part of the problem.

I agree and it feels like there's been a lot of dithering over replacing older diesel fleets. Austerity, pandemics, and failed decarbonisation strategy.

 

[slowroad]

The challenge is detecting the signal (if it's there) within the noise of all the other stuff going on e.g. deindustrialisation . For what it's worth, in GDP/head terms, Nottingham has seemed to outperform Derby since NET opened in 2004, so hooray for trams! Oh, but Nottingham has not obviously outperformed Coventry or Leicester over the same period so err...


I agree with you, your XC example is a particularly egregious example given that XC serve pretty much exclusively larger stations which have long platforms.

A counterfactual XC example is Birmingham-Leicester/Stansted services. We have run out of easy growth because more trains can't be squeezed through New Street, Wigston and Ely etc. And we can't run longer trains without a huge, costly programme to extend what are mainly 100m platforms at intermediate stations (effectively including New Street as I think the timetable has another short train at the other end of New Street Platform 10).

So progress has stalled, and we await Treasury for the money for Midlands Rail Hub East, the transformational scheme, aware that Governments repeatedly commit to, then defer/kill off these schemes (e.g. MMLE, Piccadilly P15/16, Ely Junction, and so on).


And I think what I'm saying is that we can't use a lot of this capacity to the full because they rely on, or are impacted by ripples from the big pinch points elsewhere on the network - Thameslink Core, Proof House Junction, Ely, Manchester Piccadilly P13/14 - and/or require hugely expensive route-wide platform extensions.


I agree and it feels like there's been a lot of dithering over replacing older diesel fleets. Austerity, pandemics, and failed decarbonisation strategy.

I guess your point about the signal and the noise is the one I was trying to make: sure, there are benefits, but if truly transformative it should not be so challenging to find the signal.

 

[The exile]

And I think what I'm saying is that we can't use a lot of this capacity to the full because they rely on, or are impacted by ripples from the big pinch points elsewhere on the network - Thameslink Core, Proof House Junction, Ely, Manchester Piccadilly P13/14 - and/or require hugely expensive route-wide platform extensions.

These are in general capacity pinch points in terms of numbers of trains passing through (and so are genuine problems) but every non-full-length train that passes through is not exploiting that capacity to the full.

 

[Magdalia]

A counterfactual XC example is Birmingham-Leicester/Stansted services. We have run out of easy growth because more trains can't be squeezed through New Street, Wigston and Ely etc. And we can't run longer trains without a huge, costly programme to extend what are mainly 100m platforms at intermediate stations (effectively including New Street as I think the timetable has another short train at the other end of New Street Platform 10).

So progress has stalled, and we await Treasury for the money for Midlands Rail Hub East, the transformational scheme, aware that Governments repeatedly commit to, then defer/kill off these schemes (e.g. MMLE, Piccadilly P15/16, Ely Junction, and so on).

Birmingham-Stansted is not a counterfactual, it is two more examples of the same issue, Birmingham-Nuneaton-Leicester and Peterborough-Cambridge-Stansted.

These are in general capacity pinch points in terms of numbers of trains passing through (and so are genuine problems) but every non-full-length train that passes through is not exploiting that capacity to the full.

Ely is recognised as a critical capacity constraint, so it is absurd that so much valuable capacity is wasted because train paths through Ely are taken up by 3 car Birmingham-Stansted trains, and, even worse, 2 car Liverpool-Norwich trains. These are further classic examples of a timetable that is fixed in the world of 1997 not what's needed now.

The Kings Lynn line has demonstrated how capacity can be improved with existing infrastructure by running longer trains: it benefits from the London mentality of using existing paths to the maximum. That's mainly been done through selective door opening, with longer platforms only where they are needed for operational reasons, in the Fens that's usually level crossings.

The really difficult issues with longer trains are at termini. Even with platform sharing, I don't see that as an issue at New Street, but Stansted Airport is a challenge.

 

[Snow1964]

Birmingham-Stansted is not a counterfactual, it is two more examples of the same issue, Birmingham-Nuneaton-Leicester and Peterborough-Cambridge-Stansted.

Ely is recognised as a critical capacity constraint, so it is absurd that so much valuable capacity is wasted because train paths through Ely are taken up by 3 car Birmingham-Stansted trains, and, even worse, 2 car Liverpool-Norwich trains. These are further classic examples of a timetable that is fixed in the world of 1997 not what's needed now.

You raise a good point that the timetable is stuck in 1990s, and completely out of kilter with modern usage. Just follow these lines on map on this link

leaflet

(can zoom in, and click on stations for detail) and will see that the lines mentioned are growing in passenger numbers, so continuing to operate with just 2 or 3 cars in late 2020s is a farce (especially when other stations with lesser usage are seeing 10-12 car trains)


Part of the problem seems to be that the modern railway seems to have forgotten how to build flyovers cheaply and quickly (think examples like Wimbledon, Ilford etc). Especially as in many cases a single reversible track flyover would greatly ease bottlenecks causing capacity problems.
.

 

[The exile]

Part of the problem seems to be that the modern railway seems to have forgotten how to build flyovers cheaply and quickly (think examples like Wimbledon, Ilford etc). Especially as in many cases a single reversible track flyover would greatly ease bottlenecks causing capacity problems.
.

Was building flyovers ever quick or cheap?

 

[30907]

You raise a good point that the timetable is stuck in 1990s, and completely out of kilter with modern usage. Just follow these lines on map on this link

leaflet

(can zoom in, and click on stations for detail) and will see that the lines mentioned are growing in passenger numbers, so continuing to operate with just 2 or 3 cars in late 2020s is a farce (especially when other stations with lesser usage are seeing 10-12 car trains)

Unfortunately my device doesn't access the detail. There are many stations with black dots - are they ones with no data available?

 

[pokemonsuper9]

Unfortunately my device doesn't access the detail. There are many stations with black dots - are they ones with no data available?

No, the black dots are stations where the highest usage was the most recent period

 

[InTheEastMids]

These are in general capacity pinch points in terms of numbers of trains passing through (and so are genuine problems) but every non-full-length train that passes through is not exploiting that capacity to the full.

I see that as just hitting a different sort of capacity constraint that takes £ to sort out.

Or we'll have to see SDO used much more extensively (not sure about the rules on this, but a 5-car/120m Brum-Leicester would probably overhang all the intermediate stations except Nuneaton)

 

[Krokodil]

These are in general capacity pinch points in terms of numbers of trains passing through (and so are genuine problems) but every non-full-length train that passes through is not exploiting that capacity to the full.

But lengthening trains isn't an easy fix in itself. Longer trains mean longer occupancy times.

 

[Snow1964]

I see that as just hitting a different sort of capacity constraint that takes £ to sort out.

Or we'll have to see SDO used much more extensively (not sure about the rules on this, but a 5-car/120m Brum-Leicester would probably overhang all the intermediate stations except Nuneaton)

I thinking the only 5car units that are 120m long are class 810s
The 156, 158, and 170s (when coupled as 5car) are nearer 116m

Coleshill parkway has 125m platforms, so long enough,
Nuneaton (6&7) are 150m
Water Orton is 99-104m
Hinkley 104-105m
Narborough 101m
South Wigston 95-96m

So actually in many cases more like adding a shortish extension of 15m rather than major work

Data from sectional appendices

National Electronic Sectional Appendix - Network Rail

The National Electronic Sectional Appendix contains detailed information useful to operators about network capability, as well as other data.

www.networkrail.co.uk

 

[The exile]

But lengthening trains isn't an easy fix in itself. Longer trains mean longer occupancy times.

There may be places where that applies but they’ll be few and far between and suggest that the location is over capacity already. In lots of places consistent allocation of a length of train that does sometimes run would do wonders.

 

[paulmch]

A counterfactual XC example is Birmingham-Leicester/Stansted services. We have run out of easy growth because more trains can't be squeezed through New Street, Wigston and Ely etc. And we can't run longer trains without a huge, costly programme to extend what are mainly 100m platforms at intermediate stations (effectively including New Street as I think the timetable has another short train at the other end of New Street Platform 10).

It wouldn't take a huge amount of work to sort most of the platforms on the Birmingham-Stansted route. In order to reliably run double 170s with lots of SDO use you would need to extend all platforms to take a minimum of 4 coaches - the only stations that don't have that at the moment are Melton Mowbray (both directions) and Stamford (towards Peterborough only), and in both cases the extensions required would be less than a coach length. New Street is perhaps trickier, though the Midlands Rail Hub could potentially solve that problem!

 

[Krokodil]

There may be places where that applies but they’ll be few and far between and suggest that the location is over capacity already. In lots of places consistent allocation of a length of train that does sometimes run would do wonders.

Manchester Oxford Road and Piccadilly was where I had in mind.

 

[dk1]

I was quite surprised with Brent Cross West. Reports from many suggested it was being poorly patronised but the figure for the first year has come in at a very positive 675k. The stations two minutes either side are Cricklewood (slightly down by around 13k) and Hendon (up almost 50k).

 

[The exile]

Manchester Oxford Road and Piccadilly was where I had in mind

Yes - can see the issues there, but suspect the optimum length is greater than many of the formations that pass through.

 

[imagination]

One strange curiosity:
2023/24 Hoscar had 800 entries/exits. So did Berney Arms
2024/25 Hoscar had 802 entries/exits. So did Berney Arms.

I wonder if any pair of (in use) stations have ever had the same number of passengers for two consecutive years before.

 

[splashoutradio]

For those that may be interested, the ORR released the latest Origin Destination Matrix (ODM) on Wednesday. The ODM shows an estimation of how many passengers travelled between individual station pairs on the GB mainline network during the 2024/25 period.
I've added the latest dataset to the usual section of the RailwayData website, with other websites likely to have already added or will add the data in due course.

 

[Magdalia]

For those that may be interested, the ORR released the latest Origin Destination Matrix (ODM) on Wednesday. The ODM shows an estimation of how many passengers travelled between individual station pairs on the GB mainline network during the 2024/25 period.
I've added the latest dataset to the usual section of the RailwayData website, with other websites likely to have already added or will add the data in due course.

Thanks very much, you're a star!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Dec 2025 ==

Which makes it all the more impressive that the overall market from Cambridge (if you include Cambridge North) seems to have grown by about 800,000. It'll be fascinating to watch the impact that Camb South has when it eventually opens!

Cambridge North has some impressive increases comparing 2024/25 with 2023/24

Cambridge 140k->162k
Ely 52k->65k
Stansted Airport 17k->20k
Royston 9k->11k

 

[paulmch]

Cambridge North has some impressive increases comparing 2024/25 with 2023/24

Cambridge 140k->162k
Ely 52k->65k
Stansted Airport 17k->20k
Royston 9k->11k

All very impressive, though how much of the numbers to Cambridge are legitimate and not just short faring is questionable!

 

[The exile]

All very impressive, though how much of the numbers to Cambridge are legitimate and not just short faring is questionable!

The increase is at least in line with the other three.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

Elton and Orston is least used.

With just 68 entries and exits.

Followed by...

• Shippea Hill, Cambridgeshire (76)

• Ince and Elton, Cheshire (98)

• Denton, Greater Manchester (100)

• Reddish South, Greater Manchester (102).

Be right in saying that Elton and Orston gets 12 trains calling per week (two each way midweek/Saturdays), Shippea Hill gets 7 trains calling per week (one per morning to Norwich midweek and one each way on a Saturday), Ince and Elton notionally gets 24 trains per week (four trains per day, SuX), but they're quite often cancelled, and Denton /Reddish South just two trains calling per week (the same unit shuttling to/from Stockport on a Saturday).

 

[Magdalia]

All very impressive, though how much of the numbers to Cambridge are legitimate and not just short faring is questionable!

The number 2 bus takes 35 minutes for Cambridge North-Mill Road Bridge, and that's on a good day.

 

[MikeWM]

Cambridge North has some impressive increases comparing 2024/25 with 2023/24

Cambridge 140k->162k
Ely 52k->65k
Stansted Airport 17k->20k
Royston 9k->11k

The Cambridge North figures could also be somewhat understated as people travelling from north of Cambridge may well buy to Cambridge instead, in the off-chance they want to head there in the evening before going home. I've never bought a Ely-Cambridge North ticket, I always buy Ely-Cambridge, even though I'm usually travelling to North.

(Yes, I'm aware of the easement that they are considered interchangeable anyway

 

[RailAleFan]

Origin Destination Matrix for FY 2024-2025 data now uploaded to the Top 100 tool;

Labs - Flow Statistics

Estimations (symmetrical) of total passenger journeys made between station pairs as published by the Office of Road and Rail

railalefan.co.uk

 

[A S Leib]

Origin Destination Matrix for FY 2024-2025 data now uploaded to the Top 100 tool;

Labs - Flow Statistics

Estimations (symmetrical) of total passenger journeys made between station pairs as published by the Office of Road and Rail

railalefan.co.uk

Thank you for providing it.

 

[Djgr]

Thank you for providing it.

Interesting that the top inter-city flow (outside London) with no direct service is Liverpool to Edinburgh.

Time after time posters on these forums have sworn blind that there is no demand for such a service.

 

[faltskog36abba]

Origin Destination Matrix for FY 2024-2025 data now uploaded to the Top 100 tool;

Labs - Flow Statistics

Estimations (symmetrical) of total passenger journeys made between station pairs as published by the Office of Road and Rail

railalefan.co.uk

Thank you, I enjoyed reading those Statistics.

 

[The exile]

Interesting that the top inter-city flow (outside London) with no direct service is Liverpool to Edinburgh.

Time after time posters on these forums have sworn blind that there is no demand for such a service.

Well, if I’ve read those figures correctly the current flow averages out at 99 per day (ie 1 carriage and a bit).

 

[Gazimo]

Well, if I’ve read those figures correctly the current flow averages out at 99 per day (ie 1 carriage and a bit).

you do have to be a bit careful here, as there will be some supposedly travelling from liverpool central to edinburgh as well, (there are to the 2 glasgow stations), so the numbers aren't perfect for station to station where stations are grouped together like liverpools are, (maybe edinburgh's are too) in the ticket database.