Wind Power and UK Energy Use

[AlastairFraser]

We don’t need to subsidise, people just need to do the maths. I had an esitmate recently and payback was 7 years. Or put another way, around 10% rate of return.

Around half of all British adults have less than £1000 savings, so it's definitely something that people may not have the upfront capital (or a good enough credit rating) to pay for themselves. Therefore, the government would be wise to significantly subsidise the cost of installation or facilitate interest free payment plans with reasonable monthly payments (similar to a portion of the average household energy costs).

I think a certain amount of subsidy would be justified if it helped reduce curtailment which costs us a lot of money - and the grid upgrades, even the east and west sub-sea cables won't be ready until the next decade or later. The Octopus tracker https://wastedwind.energy/2025-12-14#why-buy-twice shows a figure of £1.387 billion so far this year, which is a lot of money per head.

Precisely. It wouldn't just save us curtailment payments, it would mean we had the ability to close some gas power stations used for peak power demands in some regions. The sites and grid connections of those former power stations can then be often used for BESS (battery storage) schemes.

Hence putting as many batteries as can be managed across the country wherever the local distribution network can handle the surplus will encourage people to mop it up at a low or even negative price and reduce the subsequent peak demand with negligable infrastructure work (i.e. cost.)

Indeed.

 

[Class 317]

If you do the maths many 1 bed flats and 3 bed flats are cheaper to heat with electric using infrared or storage heaters and an immersion heater for hot water than using gas.

The standing charge and boiler service comes to around £200 a year which is 800KWH of electric before it starts costing anything.

 

[jon0844]

The wholesale cost of battery cells has plummeted again so future batteries for homes (or mass energy storage systems) will continue to get cheaper - meaning that solar and battery installs will become cheaper.

Now it's mostly the scaffolding and labour costs that make an install expensive and in some cases there are safe alternatives to scaffolding coming for certain installs that could mean big reductions there.

If batteries become cheap enough, you could probably run all or most of your heating (heat pump or another electric solution) from these and charge the batteries by solar and cheap off peak pricing exclusively.

Of course one day those off peak periods might become the peak if all homes need to charge overnight along with their cars and day usage is reduced to near nothing! That will be some way off though.

 

[JamesT]

If you do the maths many 1 bed flats and 3 bed flats are cheaper to heat with electric using infrared or storage heaters and an immersion heater for hot water than using gas.

The standing charge and boiler service comes to around £200 a year which is 800KWH of electric before it starts costing anything.

The relative costs would have to shift quite a lot as far as I can tell. According to Octopus I’ve used about 3200kWh of gas in my 2/3 bed maisonette so far this year. I have an electric cooker, so that’s just water and heating. That’s cost £275 plus £75 for the annual service.
2900kWh of electricity has cost £855. It doesn’t take long for 25p/unit versus 6p/unit to eat that standing charge.

 

[Trainbike46]

The relative costs would have to shift quite a lot as far as I can tell. According to Octopus I’ve used about 3200kWh of gas in my 2/3 bed maisonette so far this year. I have an electric cooker, so that’s just water and heating. That’s cost £275 plus £75 for the annual service.
2900kWh of electricity has cost £855. It doesn’t take long for 25p/unit versus 6p/unit to eat that standing charge.

But with a heat pump, you only need 1 kWh of electricity for every 4 kWh of gas it replaces.

So in your example, 3200 kWh of gas equates to 800 kWh electricity.

800 kWh at 25p gives £200
3200 kWh at 6p gives £192

You can see how that can become attractive, especially at houses that use less heating than yours, for example because they're very well insulated or very small.

It's written pointing out here that the climate change committee has been recommending to the government for years that:
- electricity price needs to come down
- electricity price to gas price ratio needs to come down, ideally to somewhere between 3:1 and 2:1

With those kind of price ratios, efficient electric heating would consistently be cheaper than gas, helping people switch.

 

[Bald Rick]

The wholesale cost of battery cells has plummeted again so future batteries for homes (or mass energy storage systems) will continue to get cheaper - meaning that solar and battery installs will become cheaper.

Quite, especially for batteries at scale.

Personally I think it will be better value to have localised battery storage at distribution level. According to research by Ember, battery storage prices for large scale systems have reduced 40% in the last year or so, with a capital cost of around £100/kWh, meaning a cost of storage of £50/MWh, which is rather less than the average price of electricity in this country. It’s reasonable to assume costs will continue to fall, albeit at a reduced speed. There is also a huge ‘pipeline’ of Battery storage systems awaiting confirmation of connection to the grid / DNO.

Home | Ember

Ember is a global energy think tank that aims to accelerate the clean energy transition with data and policy.

ember-energy.org

 

[JamesT]

But with a heat pump, you only need 1 kWh of electricity for every 4 kWh of gas it replaces.

So in your example, 3200 kWh of gas equates to 800 kWh electricity.

800 kWh at 25p gives £200
3200 kWh at 6p gives £192

You can see how that can become attractive, especially at houses that use less heating than yours, for example because they're very well insulated or very small.

It's written pointing out here that the climate change committee has been recommending to the government for years that:
- electricity price needs to come down
- electricity price to gas price ratio needs to come down, ideally to somewhere between 3:1 and 2:1

With those kind of price ratios, efficient electric heating would consistently be cheaper than gas, helping people switch.

Heat pumps may have that kind of efficiency. However the poster I was responding to was talking about more traditional electric heating.
I’d also be interested to see how people manage lower usage. Ofgem’s profile of a low energy user is 7,500kWh of gas.

 

[Krokodil]

But with a heat pump, you only need 1 kWh of electricity for every 4 kWh of gas it replaces.

How does a resistive system compare? It should certainly be more efficient than gas but less so than a heat pump

 

[HSTEd]

The relative costs would have to shift quite a lot as far as I can tell. According to Octopus I’ve used about 3200kWh of gas in my 2/3 bed maisonette so far this year. I have an electric cooker, so that’s just water and heating. That’s cost £275 plus £75 for the annual service.
2900kWh of electricity has cost £855. It doesn’t take long for 25p/unit versus 6p/unit to eat that standing charge.

Off peak electricity rates tend to be lower than that. I currently pay ~15p per unit for Economy 7.

Indeed if you have big enough heater elements to recharge in five hours, you can get ~7.5p per unit for electricity from various suppliers (normally under EV tariffs).

 

[Krokodil]

It was windy last night, 7p/kWh on Octopus Agile. Tonight is looking like 13p/kWh.

 

[takno]

How does a resistive system compare? It should certainly be more efficient than gas but less so than a heat pump

Resistive systems are essentially 100% efficient, while modern condenser boilers are over 90%. so pretty similar in terms of the heating process.

The central heating will waste some heat through the pipes, and potentially waste some through the pipes and the radiators not being perfectly balanced. Resistive heaters can be better, but storage heaters are putting the heat out at times it's not required, they are often not well sited in rooms, and people often don't have effective central control so they can be left on more.

Overall it's essentially a toss-up.

 

[Class 317]

The relative costs would have to shift quite a lot as far as I can tell. According to Octopus I’ve used about 3200kWh of gas in my 2/3 bed maisonette so far this year. I have an electric cooker, so that’s just water and heating. That’s cost £275 plus £75 for the annual service.
2900kWh of electricity has cost £855. It doesn’t take long for 25p/unit versus 6p/unit to eat that standing charge.

That's making the assumption your gas heating and hot water is 100% efficient. In reality with system loses it's likely to be far lower around 75% to 80% versus electric being 100%.

I use 3500 KWH in a 1 bed flat of electric including for heating and hot water using infrared heating panels, smart controls and an immersion heater.

For me gas would not work out cheaper

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Dec 2025 ==

Resistive systems are essentially 100% efficient, while modern condenser boilers are over 90%. so pretty similar in terms of the heating process.

The central heating will waste some heat through the pipes, and potentially waste some through the pipes and the radiators not being perfectly balanced. Resistive heaters can be better, but storage heaters are putting the heat out at times it's not required, they are often not well sited in rooms, and people often don't have effective central control so they can be left on more.

Overall it's essentially a toss-up.

Exactly, the boiler itself maybe 90% efficient when being used optimally which it will not be most of the time and the heating system ie the pumps, radiators controls etc are normally sub optimal in most homes delivering an efficiency far below 90% and probably nearer 75% of heat transfer from gas to room or water.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Dec 2025 ==

Doing the maths based on an EV overnight tariff of 7p a KWH you could use 2800KWH of electric for the same cost as the gas standing charge and boiler service.

 

[AndrewE]

I would have thought that domestic sparkies could adapt to this limited-scope initiative quite easily. If there is a shortage of them, then lots of apprenticeships would double the numbers every few years, especially as it could be a long-term project and on top of that the skills would be expandable to solar pv and the full breadth of domestic work to make a decent career.

See what Australia is doing. https://www.theguardian.com/environ...ction-as-australians-rush-to-take-up-discount

The federal subsidy, which has been in place for five months, will get a generous top-up to $7.2bn across four years after initially being earmarked to cost $2.3bn, the energy minister, Chris Bowen, said.

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...lmine-expansions-would-breach-climate-targets

The fund was thought to be running out rapidly, in part because households were installing systems up to the maximum subsidised size to take full advantage of the one-time offer.

Bowen said he expected the $2.3bn to be depleted in the coming year.

“We’ve been installing consistently 1,000 a day batteries each and every working day and a little bit less on Saturdays, but still around 500 every Saturday and around 1,000 every working day,” Bowen said.

“I would say it was even more successful than we thought.”

That is some roll-out!

 

[HSTEd]

I actually got solar installed on both faces of my roof, including one that points about 330 degrees, because it was really cheap once you account for them already being on site with scaffolding set up.

 

[Trainbike46]

I actually got solar installed on both faces of my roof, including one that points about 330 degrees, because it was really cheap once you account for them already being on site with scaffolding set up.

Is that east and west facing, or north and south facing?

In either case, presumably having panels facing two different directions helps produce energy more gradually across the day, instead of peaking at one specific time?

 

[HSTEd]

Is that east and west facing, or north and south facing?

In either case, presumably having panels facing two different directions helps produce energy more gradually across the day, instead of peaking at one specific time?

The roof is orientated about north-north-west/south-south-east.

My main thing was to get more power, rather than spread the generation. The north facing panels produce about half as much as the south facing ones, but cost a comparatively small sum to get installed.

I've got as many panels on my roof as the installers could get to fit.

 

[AndrewE]

Is that east and west facing, or north and south facing?

In either case, presumably having panels facing two different directions helps produce energy more gradually across the day, instead of peaking at one specific time?

in conventional useage 330 degrees is 30 deg W of due north. The other could be SW, SE or NE.
My west-facing panels start generating even when the sun is rising in the east below the ridge... It must be magic!

I am about to put S- and E-facing panels up. The E-facing ones could go into the same place on my inverter as the W-facing ones and it would see a double hump through the day, but the S-facing ones will need another inverter as they will overlap with the output of the other two and overwhelm the first inverter. I could just let the output get clipped but it seems rather a waste...

 

[Krokodil]

I actually got solar installed on both faces of my roof, including one that points about 330 degrees, because it was really cheap once you account for them already being on site with scaffolding set up.

I'm likely to do similar. Due to dormer windows I don't have a lot of usable space on the ESE side, but I have a bit more on the WNW. I'm also considering installing them almost vertically on the SSW facing gable wall, to capture the low winter sun. As you allude, extra panels don't actually cost much, the biggest costs are the fixed ones - scaffolding, batteries and inverters that would be there no matter how big (up to a point) your installation.

 

[AndrewE]

I'm likely to do similar. Due to dormer windows I don't have a lot of usable space on the ESE side, but I have a bit more on the WNW. I'm also considering installing them almost vertically on the SSW facing gable wall, to capture the low winter sun. As you allude, extra panels don't actually cost much, the biggest costs are the fixed ones - scaffolding, batteries and inverters that would be there no matter how big (up to a point) your installation.

and equally the sparky's attendance/time... (although connecting 2 arrays will take a bit longer than doing 1!)

 

[Nottingham59]

scaffolding, batteries and inverters that would be there no matter how big (up to a point) your installation.

Can batteries be installed outside? I'm considering EV wiith a big battery, but am a bit nervous about having all that energy contained within the building. After all, no-one has experience of how domestic batteries degrade after 15 years or so and the example of EV bikes is not the best.

 

[Lloyds siding]

Can batteries be installed outside? I'm considering EV wiith a big battery, but am a bit nervous about having all that energy contained within the building. After all, no-one has experience of how domestic batteries degrade after 15 years or so and the example of EV bikes is not the best.

Yes, batteries are usually in an external weatherproof enclosure. I see plenty in my tours round Britain.

 

[HSTEd]

Can batteries be installed outside? I'm considering EV wiith a big battery, but am a bit nervous about having all that energy contained within the building. After all, no-one has experience of how domestic batteries degrade after 15 years or so and the example of EV bikes is not the best.

It is actually moving in the direction of outdoor installation being compulsory, although it is not strictly true yet.

Mine is fitted to the outside of my back wall, adjacent to the inverter unit.

 

[InTheEastMids]

Can batteries be installed outside? I'm considering EV wiith a big battery, but am a bit nervous about having all that energy contained within the building. After all, no-one has experience of how domestic batteries degrade after 15 years or so and the example of EV bikes is not the best.

The problem with E-bikes and e-scooters is really related in particular to poor quality chargers that subject the batteries (also of dubious provenance) to electrical abuse, leading to thermal runaway and fire. This has particularly been an issue with drop-shipped imports from unknown resellers on marketplaces like ebay, Amazon market places and Alibaba who will just slap a CE mark on anything and claim it's compliant. These products lack a proper UK-based importer/competent organisation to think about testing, quality and all the things that you'd expect from a brand/retailer you'd recognise. And you are right to be concerned, these fires have led to fatalities.

However, a good quality domestic battery system, installed outside, in compliance with the IET Code of Practice for Electricity Storage and PAS63100, is going to be a much, much lower risk proposition. Look for a reputable installer using a battery supplier that has been going for at least a few years. The battery supplier may in turn mention the module manufacturer, and if they are one of the well-known manufacturers, that can give further comfort that it's not a cowboy product. I think the majority of domestic batteries are now lithium iron phosphate (LFP) which is also more tolerant of thermal and electrical abuse than other chemistries used in things like escooters.

 

[HSTEd]

There is also now at least one supplier selling domestic batteries using sodium-ion cells now.

 

[RichardAsh1981]

Can batteries be installed outside? I'm considering EV wiith a big battery, but am a bit nervous about having all that energy contained within the building. After all, no-one has experience of how domestic batteries degrade after 15 years or so and the example of EV bikes is not the best.

Echo what others have said. Work has a freestanding outdoor battery about the size of two double wardrobes (probably bigger than you want, and three phase), precisely because it makes the fire safety much easier (in a legacy building). This is LiPo, but for a new one now LFP is a very serious contender - you don't need to worry much about the weight!

The problems with E-bikes are mainly mechanical damage (don't put it where it can be reversed into) and design/ manufacturing quality control (e.g. adequate cell balancing), which comes down to a reputable vendor in a jurisdiction where you have legal redress - if you do, they are unlikely to cut corners and take risks!

 

[AndrewE]

Yes, batteries are usually in an external weatherproof enclosure. I see plenty in my tours round Britain.

I think all the publicity for Tesla Powerwalls https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/powerwall shows them mounted externally - I am told that they are very securely bolted to the building! They used to be Lithium ion cells (which did have runaway fire problems, like Tesla cars) but I believe that nowadays they are Lithium Iron phoshate, and a very low fire risk like most other domestic batteries - just as the regs have changed to make it almost impossible to install batteries in dry interior spaces!

 

[Olivine]

and a very low fire risk like most other domestic batteries - just as the regs have changed to make it almost impossible to install batteries in dry interior spaces!

Is it more or less explosive than the natural gas we have piped into our homes?

People’s perception of risk is really off.. a thermal runaway in the worst case scenario gives you enough time to leave.

A gas explosion gives you enough time to be blown into the street.

 

[AndrewE]

Is it more or less explosive than the natural gas we have piped into our homes?

just different.

People’s perception of risk is really off.. a thermal runaway in the worst case scenario gives you enough time to leave.

Really?

A gas explosion gives you enough time to be blown into the street.

I think a Li-ion battery runaway is pretty well instant too...

seems to say that they are inherently unsafe (in many circumstances) whereas Li Fe Po4 is pretty safe (unless you short the terminals - when the arc will severely injure you!)

 

[Brubulus]

I don't think air to water heat pumps are going to really catch on. The government cannot realistically subsidise them at £7500 for that long. Realistically, air-air multi-split systems are much cheaper, and provide a demonstrable benefit for people (effective air conditioning). Domestic + Grid batteries will likely end up being sodium based, which is safe and cheap. Car batteries will likely be LFP for the vast majority of applications, which is also safe and cheap, and will last longer than most cars.

 

[Technologist]

I think a Li-ion battery runaway is pretty well instant too...

The runaway might be quick but it doesn't demolish your house, it would start a fire which should be contained in the room that batteries are stored long enough for a smoke alarm to go off and the people inside to evacuate. The key bit is making sure its not near the evacuation route.

I don't think air to water heat pumps are going to really catch on. The government cannot realistically subsidise them at £7500 for that long. Realistically, air-air multi-split systems are much cheaper, and provide a demonstrable benefit for people (effective air conditioning). Domestic + Grid batteries will likely end up being sodium based, which is safe and cheap. Car batteries will likely be LFP for the vast majority of applications, which is also safe and cheap, and will last longer than most cars.

Most of the literature and modelling suggests that some variant of L(M)FP is likely to be cheaper than sodium ion for grid applications to well into the 2030's. The useful dimension for sodium ion batteries is that they are a pathway for growth in the event that battery production is curtailed by mining, refining or trading limitations for lithium. It should be added that NCA and NMC battery packs are pretty safe as engineered vehicle battery packs and can resist a number of the cells burning without the whole pack going up. You just pay for that safety in pack cost and mass, however as the batteries are higher performance than LFP you still get a lighter vehicle.