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Euston to Glasgow needs to go half-hourly

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35B

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It's even worse when you consider that Virgin were allegedly prepared to finance the extension of the remaining 21 nine-coach units, yet the DfT blocked it. If this is true then it's yet another example of the civil service making a poor micromanaging decision instead of letting the actual industry management run the railway. Whatever you may think of them, Virgin actually seemed very good in situations where they actually had proper control.
That is truly, truly awful. One of the things that you can see being a rail enthusiast is that the British State is not there to make the population’s lives easier, it’s run like a private corporation of some sort - and you can’t vote to change it!
No, it's not the state being run like a private corporation. It is quite simply "the man in Whitehall" deciding that he knows better, and the financial regime for the railways meaning that he has veto power because no operator can afford to take the risk of funding a long term investment without guarantees.

And as for voting, the point is that these are civil servants operating under ministerial authority - ministers can and do overrule civil servants on spending decisions.
 
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NCT

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No, it's not the state being run like a private corporation. It is quite simply "the man in Whitehall" deciding that he knows better, and the financial regime for the railways meaning that he has veto power because no operator can afford to take the risk of funding a long term investment without guarantees.

And as for voting, the point is that these are civil servants operating under ministerial authority - ministers can and do overrule civil servants on spending decisions.

Was this with Virgin taking commercial risk, or Virgin proposing something during their management contract period?

I guess even within the commercial risk scenario Virgin would only be taking the risk over the duration of their franchise period only, and ROSCOs would normally only agree to finance a fleet if it's underwritten by a Section 54 agreement from the government, and it wouldn't be unreasonable for the government to hold the power of veto?
 

MontyP

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It’s fine. Writ large, nobody would notice much. On this board we do tend to manifest our niche interests as a priority to Gen pop!

Blackpool could still have a token peak service.
Blackpool v Lancaster is a bit like two bald men fighting over a comb, the objective would surely be to provide an additional service south of Preston to pick up some of the calls so that the Glasgow service could skip them. If by some chance paths, stock and staff could be found then I imagine it would come down to operational convenience as to whether they went to Blackpool or Lancaster. You could probably also make a case for going further north to Carlisle or Edinburgh (subject to all the constraints listed above).
 

35B

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Was this with Virgin taking commercial risk, or Virgin proposing something during their management contract period?

I guess even within the commercial risk scenario Virgin would only be taking the risk over the duration of their franchise period only, and ROSCOs would normally only agree to finance a fleet if it's underwritten by a Section 54 agreement from the government, and it wouldn't be unreasonable for the government to hold the power of veto?
It's not unreasonable for the government to hold that power of veto - the franchise is ultimately their asset, and it is for them to determine what it should consist of. That leaves two major questions - one in detail, and one in principle. The detailed question is whether the specific decision was or wasn't a good one for the WCML intercity franchise. The question of principle is whether it was ever right to have key decisions like this being made not by the business responsible for the service, but an arms length body.
 

NorthWalian

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To be fair, I wasn't going to have a Holyhead portion. That was going to be run as a shuttle. The wires prevent a Pendolino being used for this so it is a non-starter, no matter how much Chester might like a Glasgow train.

Now, IF there was an appetite some 5 car 805s could presumably be traded with GWR for some 9 car 80x so that the service could be run.

Get a few more 197s ordered for the shuttle, or make the replacement of the whole Marches service part of the next TfW bid instead of just the Mk4s replacement and then use those 197s for the additional shuttle. Interworking with the Cardiff-Holyhead and Manchester-North Wales would give a lot more flexibility than sending 805s to Holyhead.

All not going to happen though.

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You would assume TfW would operate it if asked. It would use 197s and they are based at Chester. As noted you would be able to interwork with the current 197 operated services that run via Wrexham. TfW also have the Crewe shuttle and do have route knowledge.

Really it would just mean they did not need to share Holyhead to Crewe revenue with Avanti.
The current 197 via Wrexham services do not run to Crewe so you’d then turn a direct trip into a two stop via Chester and Crewe or the slog at Birmingham.
 

Bletchleyite

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The current 197 via Wrexham services do not run to Crewe so you’d then turn a direct trip into a two stop via Chester and Crewe or the slog at Birmingham.

If HS2 phase 2A ever gets built, meaning that the direct service could perhaps be slower than changing at Crewe onto HS2, I think I'd give serious consideration to making the Holyhead service return to being an hourly Holyhead-Birmingham via Stafford and then the Avanti service could go. However until then I think it is of value and it wouldn't be politically acceptable to get rid of it.

Of course if more of HS2 was built then Scotland goes half hourly anyway.
 
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Topological

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The current 197 via Wrexham services do not run to Crewe so you’d then turn a direct trip into a two stop via Chester and Crewe or the slog at Birmingham.
What?

I was proposing a 197 operated service in the same path as the current 80x between Holyhead and Crewe. That would be additional to the present via Wrexham.

Unless what you mean is that in the hours where there is not an 80x from Holyhead to London then you can currently change from a TfW via Wrexham train onto the London train at Chester. However, that would fail the "direct" part of the post.

There is no direct option that the use of the Holyhead path out of Euston for a different service would convert into 2 stops.
 

cle

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Blackpool v Lancaster is a bit like two bald men fighting over a comb, the objective would surely be to provide an additional service south of Preston to pick up some of the calls so that the Glasgow service could skip them. If by some chance paths, stock and staff could be found then I imagine it would come down to operational convenience as to whether they went to Blackpool or Lancaster. You could probably also make a case for going further north to Carlisle or Edinburgh (subject to all the constraints listed above).
Except that Lancaster is a also call on those busy Scotland services, and so additional ones starting there (vs Blackpool) adds seats to that pool of demand, and thus relieves Preston/Wigan/Warrington, to a degree.
 

321362

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If the constraint is WCML south, how about changing the North Wales Coast Avantis to go to Preston, or somewhere, rather than Euston? A reversal at Crewe probably wouldn't be too difficult, and you avoid the constraint at Colwich.

Alternatively, and much more sensibly, just build HS2 fully.
 

cle

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Or split that current Chester hourly service at Crewe - one half for Chester (on to Holyhead in some hours) - the back half for Warrington/Wigan/Preston/Lanc or Blackpool alt ?
 

NorthWalian

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What?

I was proposing a 197 operated service in the same path as the current 80x between Holyhead and Crewe. That would be additional to the present via Wrexham.

Unless what you mean is that in the hours where there is not an 80x from Holyhead to London then you can currently change from a TfW via Wrexham train onto the London train at Chester. However, that would fail the "direct" part of the post.

There is no direct option that the use of the Holyhead path out of Euston for a different service would convert into 2 stops.
What I mean is that TFW have an hourly service that covers the Holyhead - Chester section. I can’t see them doing any more.

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Or split that current Chester hourly service at Crewe - one half for Chester (on to Holyhead in some hours) - the back half for Warrington/Wigan/Preston/Lanc or Blackpool alt ?
Does Crewe have the room for such an arrangement? I don’t think 5 coaches is ideal for north wales but it isn’t terrible
 

Topological

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What I mean is that TFW have an hourly service that covers the Holyhead - Chester section. I can’t see them doing any more.
Why wouldn't they?

If there was no reason to run the train then Avanti would not run it. In this situation GBR/DfT would be specifying the train and it would be in the TfW "franchise". Whatever the model is that will be used, it can still be made part of the TfW contract for operation on NR.

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Does Crewe have the room for such an arrangement? I don’t think 5 coaches is ideal for north wales but it isn’t terrible
You can use Platform 12 I believe.

Not great going southbound as it requires crossing movements, but would be out the way if the join fails.
 

NorthWalian

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Why wouldn't they?

If there was no reason to run the train then Avanti would not run it. In this situation GBR/DfT would be specifying the train and it would be in the TfW "franchise". Whatever the model is that will be used, it can still be made part of the TfW contract for operation on NR.

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You can use Platform 12 I believe.

Not great going southbound as it requires crossing movements, but would be out the way if the join fails.
Because I can’t see a more than hourly frequency needed for Holyhead > Chester and the Chester > Crewe shuttle tends to be rather empty so you’d be running a whole train for those wanting a Holyhead > Crewe only.
 

Topological

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Because I can’t see a more than hourly frequency needed for Holyhead > Chester and the Chester > Crewe shuttle tends to be rather empty so you’d be running a whole train for those wanting a Holyhead > Crewe only.
Are you saying that there is no need for the Avanti at all?

I always believed that there was a need for some train on top of the TfW offering on the North Wales coast.
 

NorthWalian

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Are you saying that there is no need for the Avanti at all?

I always believed that there was a need for some train on top of the TfW offering on the North Wales coast.
The need for the Avanti is to get to London directly as opposed to Chester.

Maybe I’m wrong but an hourly run along the coast seems to be frequent enough.
 

Topological

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The need for the Avanti is to get to London directly as opposed to Chester.

Maybe I’m wrong but an hourly run along the coast seems to be frequent enough.
But presumably those passengers won't all stop travelling because they need to change in Crewe.

If the train could just be cut, I suspect it would have been done by now.
 

Bletchleyite

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I've done a new thread for the North Wales discussion as it's moving away from how it could be cut to up the Glasgow:


Talking back to the Glasgow, isn't there an issue with pathing on the north WCML, hence why all the passenger services are somewhat clustered? You might be able to squash in an extra train per hour, but it'd not be clean half hourly?
 

tatitiliti

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Every. Single. Time. People are standing, luggage blocking corridors no access to the buffet. It’s a massive stress every time I use it.

It certainly needs a second train an hour. Maybe with a stop at Nuneaton for connections east. Long-distance Intercity travel should not be like this.
They used to have a 16:30 (or then abouts?) calling at Preston only in addition to the hourly. I believe this reduced some of the peak capacity constraints on south WCML?
 

TheGrew

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How many sets would be freed up when HS2 (eventually) opens? I can't see a strong argument for Avanti to continue to operate Birmingham Terminators once HS2 is operational. IMO, WCML Euston-Birmingham should then be covered exclusively by LNWR (with additional stock for lengthening) except for the Scotland train that routes via Birmingham.
 

Bald Rick

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How many sets would be freed up when HS2 (eventually) opens? I can't see a strong argument for Avanti to continue to operate Birmingham Terminators once HS2 is operational. IMO, WCML Euston-Birmingham should then be covered exclusively by LNWR (with additional stock for lengthening) except for the Scotland train that routes via Birmingham.

There will remain two trains an hour fast line via Weedon to the West Mids, principally to serve Coventry and also the intermediate flows Watford / MK / Rugby to West Mids.
 

30907

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They used to have a 16:30 (or then abouts?) calling at Preston only in addition to the hourly. I believe this reduced some of the peak capacity constraints on south WCML?
1630 Glasgow and 1633 Preston - the second was a 5-car and the first loaded poorly, so they were combined.
 

ayubdaud

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There's no reason why Morecambe/Bentham Line/Cumbrian Coast need to use Platform 5. Lancaster has 2 bay platforms (one of which supports platform sharing), and 3 bi directional through platforms, which should be more than enough for an extra service from the south terminating there a few times a day. As for the Windermere services, could they be timetabled to have a layover at Oxenholme instead of Lancaster?
Class 158s are prohibited from platform 2. Can't recall the length but you can't really fit much in platform 1. Without having platform 5 for Northern as flexibility you probably have to mess around with the timetable a lot. Platform 5 itself is only 171m so I think a 807 is overlength. Would be curious whether it's feasible to lengthen any of those.

Why wouldn't they?

If there was no reason to run the train then Avanti would not run it. In this situation GBR/DfT would be specifying the train and it would be in the TfW "franchise". Whatever the model is that will be used, it can still be made part of the TfW contract for operation on NR.

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You can use Platform 12 I believe.

Not great going southbound as it requires crossing movements, but would be out the way if the join fails.
Platform 12 is soon to be flooded with WMT 10-car 730 turning round. I presume any wider solution would need then extended elsewhere but power supply then likely scuppers that for now.
 

Topological

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Class 158s are prohibited from platform 2. Can't recall the length but you can't really fit much in platform 1. Without having platform 5 for Northern as flexibility you probably have to mess around with the timetable a lot. Platform 5 itself is only 171m so I think a 807 is overlength. Would be curious whether it's feasible to lengthen any of those.


Platform 12 is soon to be flooded with WMT 10-car 730 turning round. I presume any wider solution would need then extended elsewhere but power supply then likely scuppers that for now.
Thank you, I had not realised that WMT would have to switch across from their current use of 7.

Good news if the plan is 10-car 730 though.
 

AndrewE

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Blackpool v Lancaster is a bit like two bald men fighting over a comb, the objective would surely be to provide an additional service south of Preston to pick up some of the calls so that the Glasgow service could skip them.
Please don't forget that the WCML is definitely not just "London to (some) other places as fast as possible" - or "from the provinces up to town" ditto.
It serves lots of important towns and cities all along its route and one of our biggest problems is the current poor inter- and intra-regional connectivity.

The Euston-Glasgow trains not calling anywhere south of Warrington already deprives the Midlands of access to one hourly fast service, with a direct service from Brum to Glasgow only alternate hours, ditto Wales and the E and W midlands by changing at Crewe.
If by some chance paths, stock and staff could be found then I imagine it would come down to operational convenience as to whether they went to Blackpool or Lancaster. You could probably also make a case for going further north to Carlisle or Edinburgh (subject to all the constraints listed above).
Doubling the EUS - GLA service might provide enough capacity for N Midlands passengers to be allowed on these trains, but in reality doubling up Liverpool and Manchester to Glasgow capacity/frequencies would probably benefit more people.
 

cle

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Why wouldn't they?

If there was no reason to run the train then Avanti would not run it. In this situation GBR/DfT would be specifying the train and it would be in the TfW "franchise". Whatever the model is that will be used, it can still be made part of the TfW contract for operation on NR.

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You can use Platform 12 I believe.

Not great going southbound as it requires crossing movements, but would be out the way if the join fails.
Or platform 11, slightly better. But yeah, it’s not ideal for the up Lancs service, especially.
 

ShadowKnight

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Please don't forget that the WCML is definitely not just "London to (some) other places as fast as possible" - or "from the provinces up to town" ditto.
It serves lots of important towns and cities all along its route and one of our biggest problems is the current poor inter- and intra-regional connectivity.

The Euston-Glasgow trains not calling anywhere south of Warrington already deprives the Midlands of access to one hourly fast service, with a direct service from Brum to Glasgow only alternate hours, ditto Wales and the E and W midlands by changing at Crewe.

Doubling the EUS - GLA service might provide enough capacity for N Midlands passengers to be allowed on these trains, but in reality doubling up Liverpool and Manchester to Glasgow capacity/frequencies would probably benefit more people.
This point of adding long distance connectivity to places that isn't London is important. The west coast lumo adds well to this mix.

Additional/lengthened TPEs to Scotland would provide greater benefits at lower cost. Perhaps additional destinations like Chester (via Warrington or Crewe) or Leeds (via S&C or Manchester) to Scotland might add some further colour to this discussion.
 

Zomboid

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The London to Chester service would seem to justify itself. If it were merely political then they'd run the Holyhead trains and not bother with the extras that make Chester (almost) hourly. And whilst more/longer TPEs would probably be a good thing, the initial issue that started this thread is seems to be how popular the London to Warrington/ Wigan/ Preston fast trains (which continue to Glasgow, but I think that might be incidental) are.

The obvious solution was cancelled by a former prime minister in a closed railway station a couple of years ago...

Would there be any mileage in sending a Liverpool train via Warrington?
 

TheGrew

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The London to Chester service would seem to justify itself. If it were merely political then they'd run the Holyhead trains and not bother with the extras that make Chester (almost) hourly. And whilst more/longer TPEs would probably be a good thing, the initial issue that started this thread is seems to be how popular the London to Warrington/ Wigan/ Preston fast trains (which continue to Glasgow, but I think that might be incidental) are.

The obvious solution was cancelled by a former prime minister in a closed railway station a couple of years ago...

Would there be any mileage in sending a Liverpool train via Warrington?
That I think would help at least with Warrington, but Wigan and Preston do get quite a bit of traffic as well. This is one of the reasons why I hoped the Lumo service or the LNWR Destination Manchester would happen, though.
 

Zomboid

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Potentially that could allow the Glasgow to skip Warrington, (it'd still have the Birmingham train for the northward connections, and a fast southbound from Liverpool via Earlstown).

And yes, paths, crayons etc...
 
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