Yes. That is a reasonable assertion.
Replacing a 4-car train with a 5-car train should only be more expensive on the fuel consumption point of view, provided there are some additional passengers. 4 or 5 car to 8 or 9 car brings additional staffing costs, but there is still worthwhile data on whether more capacity increases or reduced subsidy requirements.
The Turbostars are a similar age to the Voyagers so not immediately due for replacement. I suspect their fate may be tied up with GWR's Project Churchward or Northern's tender for DMU replacement. If like some other operators that ends up becoming a full fleet replacement then it could free up some stock for XC to use. Or said Northern/GWR stock becomes the template when it is XC's turn for new.
The DfT have reportedly been looking at tying in GWR, SWR and Chiltern fleet replacement in the same order. If this happens then I could see 168s being cascaded to XC if still in reasonable condition come their end at Chiltern, then they could either be converted to 170s, or given their own diagrams that allow 170s to be strengthen on other diagrams. GWR don't really have any DMUs of use to XC, and the 159s at SWR are both old and incompatible with XC's fleet.
If they can sell 200 tickets at £100 each, or 400 tickets at £75 each, the latter is clearly more income.
a 8/9-car fixed length train has the same staffing needs as a fixed length 4/5 car train, namely a driver, a guard, and a catering worker (if desired), unless I've missed something?
A 4 car 755 could work, but doesn't provide many more seats. A 5 car 755 would just about fit at Stansted and would provide a useful capacity increase. However what I think will actually happen could be that WMR and the XC regional operation could be merged, which enables the use of 4 car 196s, though the local authorities might be annoyed about Shrewsbury and Hereford going back to 170s, even if they are in 4 and 5 car configurations.
The interesting thing is the route has multiple parts that are electrified (Cardiff -Seven tunnel Junction, Bromsgrove - Birmingham, small bit near Peterborough, Ely-Stansted too). Almost certainly needs something more akin to a 5car 710 or 444 in length, preferably with level boarding. Ideally a BEMU not a diesel unit.
The Turbostars could probably find an alternative home through to mid 2040s, basically anywhere miles away from electrification system, perhaps as an interim whilst electrification is extended.
On paper there is a good case for only replacing part of the voyager fleet around 2033-2035. The decarbonisation box gets ticked. Better still it allows some of the class 220+221 driving cars to be scrapped, with other units reformed to 6 or 7 car. If they aren't going to use the tilt system then choosing to ditch the heavier tilting fleet vehicles makes sense too.
Inadequate? But you’re never going to get long, fast, intercity style trains wasted on such a secondary part of the network. Those routes should have been left with the regional operators.
CrossCountry is a regional operator to all intents and purposes, albeit without its own stations, and it significantly simplifies the operation of services between Cheltenham and Derby to have all services run by the same operator.
Don't forget that by 2035, Midlands Rail Hub should be at least partially complete, which will make the XC operation much more intercity, by virtue of secondary routes and services being moved to Moor Street.
I think that subthread was about the question of doubling-up Voyagers in the short-term, rather than replacing them with a putative new train – so while you don't need a second driver, you do ideally want to double up on all customer-facing roles.
The DfT and its agents will also be duty bound to oppose any proposals for open access competition.
And presumably the CMA Competition and Markets Authority (which I think is loosely related to Business and Trade Dept) will take the opposite view if it restricts consumers choice and value.
Why not? Cambridge is expanding at a huge rate - a is Peterborough, and Stansted is the fastest growing airport in the UK. If Bournemouth and Plymouth get proper inter city trains with a fraction of the passenger numbers why not Cambridge and Stansted Airport? I’m not suggesting necessarily faster trains though some like speed enhancements to 90mph throughout would be good, but longer trains is an absolute must. Greater Cambridge is growing to half a million over the next 20 years. And Stansted will be almost as busy as Gatwick in 20 years’ time. Cambridge is massively under provided with trains across to the Midlands and up to the North. It has a good service to the South and the rest of East Anglia.
Longer trains yes. But people are regularly suggesting fast intercity trains, and realistically I don’t think that’s ever going to happen.
Trains on the Birmingham-Stansted route can't get above 95mph or so at any point, plus the average journey time is pretty short, with basically no-one doing the whole journey. I do think they should have first class and longer trains is a must, but I would be OK with 4 car 196s which deliver a capacity increase of around 50%, even though they don't have first class and are suburban trains.
XC have recently removed first class from the route. How many complaints will they have had as a result?
Intercity in comfort terms not necessarily speed. West of Exeter trains are intercity levels of comfort but not speed. It’s just that in England, north of London, Cambridge is the 5th busiest railway station on the national rail network and it has woeful services north and west. Only Manchester Piccadilly, Leeds, Liverpool Lime Street, and Birmingham New Street serve more passengers. Liverpool Centeal does as well on the Mersey Rail network. But Cambridge is busier than Newcastle, Sheffield, Hull, York, Nottingham, Leicester, Peterborough, Bristol Temple Meads, Derby, Norwich, Milton Keynes Central, Derby, Coventry, Oxford, Wolverhampton, Birmingham Moor Street, Crewe, Manchester Victoria, Preston and doesn’t have the service to match it’s significance
Raw numbers using the station are not necessarily the best indicator of intercity demand – a high proportion of usage is inbound commuting from nearby towns like Ely, Royston and Newmarket, as well as commuters from Cambridge to London. That said, Cambridge clearly is an important city and more so than its population figures would suggest in terms of tourism, industry and its university, and the current XC offering is pretty poor in that context.