Eurostar orders new double-deck train fleet

[zwk500]

or even Temple Mills

Haha good spot!

 

[Austriantrain]

Clearly Eurostar are using every trick in the book to try and keep exclusive use of Temple Mills, even stating some stock that is currently maintained in France will need to use it.

They will of course also be aware of the new private TGV servicing depot recently announced just south of Bordeaux for Proxima new Velvet fleet. Suggests French are softening their approach to depot ownership (which historically was very protectionist).

Whilst lack of land near St Pancras helps protect their position, it would be relatively easy to build a servicing depot further out, nearer Dagenham, Ebbsfleet or alongside A2 etc.

Oh, I think in general Fremch opposition to competition has softened quite a bit, as can be seen from the relative ease with which Trenitalia is getting paths on the most congested LGV. SNCF might have overplayed its hand, and E* might well do the same.

 

[zwk500]

Oh, I think in general Fremch opposition to competition has softened quite a bit, as can be seen from the relative ease with which Trenitalia is getting paths on the most congested LGV. SNCF might have overplayed its hand, and E* might well do the same.

The European Law changes to promote open access will have forced SNCF's hand to some extent as well.

 

[Austriantrain]

The European Law changes to promote open access will have forced SNCF's hand to some extent as well.

Well, that has been in force for many years and some countries have always managed to make access as difficult as possible.

If you want to convince national politics to protect your monopoly as much as feasible, better offer decent service (which also helps in using paths that otherwise competitors would claim). SNCF has done anything but, and to an even greater extent so has RENFE - and suffered even more when competition was not only tolerated, but actively encouraged (and rightly so).

 

[TheWierdOne]

Eurostar insists double-decker trains will run to London and clarifies order

Eurostar explains more of its plans for the Alstom-built trains.

www.railmagazine.com

Eurostar has insisted its new double-decker trains will run on London routes from 2031, and that it will order a total of 50.

The new Celestia fleet will be built in France and stabled at depots in London, Paris and Brussels, but heavy maintenance will be carried out at Temple Mills International Depot.

“The first commercial services will run on London-Paris and London-Brussels from 2031, with new destinations such as Frankfurt and Geneva planned for the mid-2030s,” the spokesperson added.
[...]
Each 200-metre-long train will carry 540 passengers, and Eurostar has said some will work in pairs through the Channel Tunnel, leaving the option to split them mid-journey to reach different final destinations.

Eurostar is insisting that the double deckers will run to London, with the first routes planned to be London-Paris and London-Brussels. Heavy maintenance is apparently planned for Temple Mills, and there is potential for splitting and joining en route. I'm going to take a punt on Eurostar doing services to Switzerland that split en route to serve Geneva and Zurich while only using one HS1/Chunnel path.

 

[LoonyToon]

More interesting analysis from Jon Worth.

Working out what Eurostar is going to do - based on the numbers, not what the company says

If you take what Eurostar has said in its press release, Alstom has said in its press release, and what has appeared in the FT and The Guardian among others yesterday, you end up with the impression that these Avelia Horizon double deck trains Eurostar is to order from Alstom

jonworth.eu

 

[Trainbike46]

Eurostar insists double-decker trains will run to London and clarifies order

Eurostar explains more of its plans for the Alstom-built trains.

www.railmagazine.com

Eurostar is insisting that the double deckers will run to London, with the first routes planned to be London-Paris and London-Brussels. Heavy maintenance is apparently planned for Temple Mills, and there is potential for splitting and joining en route. I'm going to take a punt on Eurostar doing services to Switzerland that split en route to serve Geneva and Zurich while only using one HS1/Chunnel path.

The 373s are the oldest stock Eurostar has, so those being the first to be replaced is believable.

More interesting analysis from Jon Worth.

Working out what Eurostar is going to do - based on the numbers, not what the company says

If you take what Eurostar has said in its press release, Alstom has said in its press release, and what has appeared in the FT and The Guardian among others yesterday, you end up with the impression that these Avelia Horizon double deck trains Eurostar is to order from Alstom

jonworth.eu

He does make some good points, and the fact that the initial order is for only 30 trains, rather than the 42 that would be needed to replace the PBAs, PBKAs, and 373s is odd.

Then again, the fact that Eurostar is renovating the PBKAs but not the PBAs (or 373s) suggests they intend to keep the PBKAs for longer, which would support the theory of them replacing the 373s and PBAs first.

 

[Eurostarosaur]

Do we think that they could extend the life of the 373s for another decade or longer?

 

[LoonyToon]

Do we think that they could extend the life of the 373s for another decade or longer?

I hope not.
You really do feel like you're on a wing and a prayer everytime you're on one!

 

[bleeder4]

I hope not.
You really do feel like you're on a wing and a prayer everytime you're on one!

I actually prefer them. They've got more character than the e320s, plus I think the seats are comfier.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I actually prefer them. They've got more character than the e320s, plus I think the seats are comfier.

Aren't they the same seats since the refurb?

 

[Trainbike46]

I always thought the e300 had slightly narrower versions of the seats used in the e320s, though it has been a while since I travelled on an e300 so couldn't say for sure.

 

[LoonyToon]

I actually prefer them. They've got more character than the e320s, plus I think the seats are comfier.

I get you.
The e320's are 100% more pleasant from a drivers POV though!
#Selfish

 

[NCT]

The 373s are a nicer train to travel on, but they really are getting on. Besides, the unpleasantness of the 374 is purely down to the interior - nothing a mid-life refurbishment (changing seats and lighting/diffusers) can't solve.

 

[superalbs]

Aren't they the same seats since the refurb?

373 seats are narrower, but have more padding. Quite unpleasant in second class due to being cramped, but in first class it's the nicest way out of the UK!

But I would still choose a 374 any day - I've had too many failures on the old stock to trust them anymore, they need to go...

 

[Sorcerer]

Do we think that they could extend the life of the 373s for another decade or longer?

Metaphorically speaking you'd be milking a dry cow trying to get another ten years out of the old fleet. Running at 300km/h everyday is enough to wear out any train over 30 years, never mind one that also has to contend with the salty sea air of the Channel Tunnel and it's subsequent corrosion when it's not running at those great speeds. They were revolutionary trains for their time, and I'd absolutely support preservation of at least one or two sets, but they are most definitely reaching the end of their days in commercial service.

 

[Citybreak1]

Eurostar insists double-decker trains will run to London and clarifies order

Eurostar explains more of its plans for the Alstom-built trains.

www.railmagazine.com

Eurostar is insisting that the double deckers will run to London, with the first routes planned to be London-Paris and London-Brussels. Heavy maintenance is apparently planned for Temple Mills, and there is potential for splitting and joining en route. I'm going to take a punt on Eurostar doing services to Switzerland that split en route to serve Geneva and Zurich while only using one HS1/Chunnel path.

Frankfurt mid 2030’s is ten years away. Very disappointing any chance any other operator will beat this time frame?

 

[TheWierdOne]

Frankfurt mid 2030’s is ten years away. Very disappointing any chance any other operator will beat this time frame?

Depends on the ORR decision about Temple Mills, see further discussion in the speculative thread

 

[Trainbike46]

More interesting analysis from Jon Worth.

Working out what Eurostar is going to do - based on the numbers, not what the company says

If you take what Eurostar has said in its press release, Alstom has said in its press release, and what has appeared in the FT and The Guardian among others yesterday, you end up with the impression that these Avelia Horizon double deck trains Eurostar is to order from Alstom

jonworth.eu

I thought about this one a bit more. It's definitely a very interesting analysis.

I agree with Jon Worth that the initial 30 are to replace either PBA+PBKA or PBA+e300, with the options to replace whichever one of those three older fleets isn't replaced by the original order.

However, I think the signs point towards the plan being to replace the PBA+e300 fleets first, for these reasons:
- The PBA and e300 fleets are the oldest Eurostar has
- The PBKA has recently been refurbished (Ruby refurbishment), so could last quite a bit longer.
- It doesn't make sense to refurbish and then quickly bin a fleet
- The ORR will have expected detailed plans, so use of the fleet to London must at the very least be possible*

In this situation, the reason for having the PBKA replacement as options rather than part of the firm order is so that Eurostar has an out if, for whatever reason, the Celestia units are either not up to standard, or massively delayed. Basically, it gives them some extra leverage over Alstom until the decision on the PBKA units has to be taken.

*This is relevant, because I think Jon Worth has attached too much importance to the idea that these new trains may not get Channel tunnel certification (soon enough), which steers him towards the PBA+PBKA replacement instead of the PBA+e300 replacement.

 

[Snow1964]

I thought about this one a bit more. It's definitely a very interesting analysis.

I agree with Jon Worth that the initial 30 are to replace either PBA+PBKA or PBA+e300, with the options to replace whichever one of those three older fleets isn't replaced by the original order.

However, I think the signs point towards the plan being to replace the PBA+e300 fleets first, for these reasons:
- The PBA and e300 fleets are the oldest Eurostar has
- The PBKA has recently been refurbished (Ruby refurbishment), so could last quite a bit longer.
- It doesn't make sense to refurbish and then quickly bin a fleet

I tend to agree, the PBKA are likely to be last to leave.

My personal thought is having done the Ruby refurbishment, they might be used on more fringe services (almost as extras at busy times), rather than be timetabled as all day, regular use.

If they can get few extra years out of them, without thrashing them by using intensively, the P&L will be lot healthier as using fully written down trains to collect extra revenue at peak/busy times, whilst deferring the costs of extra new trains.

 

[Sorcerer]

I thought about this one a bit more. It's definitely a very interesting analysis.

I agree with Jon Worth that the initial 30 are to replace either PBA+PBKA or PBA+e300, with the options to replace whichever one of those three older fleets isn't replaced by the original order.

However, I think the signs point towards the plan being to replace the PBA+e300 fleets first, for these reasons:
- The PBA and e300 fleets are the oldest Eurostar has
- The PBKA has recently been refurbished (Ruby refurbishment), so could last quite a bit longer.
- It doesn't make sense to refurbish and then quickly bin a fleet
- The ORR will have expected detailed plans, so use of the fleet to London must at the very least be possible*

In this situation, the reason for having the PBKA replacement as options rather than part of the firm order is so that Eurostar has an out if, for whatever reason, the Celestia units are either not up to standard, or massively delayed. Basically, it gives them some extra leverage over Alstom until the decision on the PBKA units has to be taken.

*This is relevant, because I think Jon Worth has attached too much importance to the idea that these new trains may not get Channel tunnel certification (soon enough), which steers him towards the PBA+PBKA replacement instead of the PBA+e300 replacement.

I respect Jon Worth's opinions, but here I also disagree with him and think the most likely intention is for Eurostar to replace the PBA and e300s first based on the Ruby refurbishment. There will be just enough trains in the original order of thirty to replace both of them with five left over for potential expansion into Germany and Switzerland. Certainly enough to fill any extra space in Temple Mills and block competition.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I respect Jon Worth's opinions, but here I also disagree with him and think the most likely intention is for Eurostar to replace the PBA and e300s first based on the Ruby refurbishment. There will be just enough trains in the original order of thirty to replace both of them with five left over for potential expansion into Germany and Switzerland. Certainly enough to fill any extra space in Temple Mills and block competition.

And if they're going to be maintained at Temple Mills (regardless of the motivation for that) you're going to need to run them on UK services at least some of the time otherwise you'll be paying for costly Tunnel paths for ECS runs, which is throwing money in the bin. See also the way you get 168s on Aylesbury Vale services on Chiltern at the extremes of the day because they're being run down to Marylebone to enter/exit service on the mainline rather than wasting paths sending them ECS.

 

[Sorcerer]

And if they're going to be maintained at Temple Mills (regardless of the motivation for that) you're going to need to run them on UK services at least some of the time otherwise you'll be paying for costly Tunnel paths for ECS runs, which is throwing money in the bin. See also the way you get 168s on Aylesbury Vale services on Chiltern at the extremes of the day because they're being run down to Marylebone to enter/exit service on the mainline rather than wasting paths sending them ECS.

Not to mention the extortionate track access fees for HS1.

 

[BahrainLad]

Can we assume that these new trains will have an interior that at least matches the Ruby refurbishment regarding comfort, design etc? It’s a distinct improvement on the e320s.

 

[NCT]

Can we assume that these new trains will have an interior that at least matches the Ruby refurbishment regarding comfort, design etc? It’s a distinct improvement on the e320s.

I suspect 'nobody knows' at this stage.

One possibility is that, given the trains are from the overall SNCF framework contract, the interior might resemble the TGV-M showcased some months ago - plenty of pictures/videos on t'Internet.

 

[williamn]

Lots of the comments here assume that Eurostar wants to add capacity to grow passenger numbers. SNCF’s recent strategy has been the opposite, reduce services, pack remaining ones, raise prices. It’s entirely possible Eurostars strategy will be the same.

 

[Halish Railway]

More interesting analysis from Jon Worth.

Working out what Eurostar is going to do - based on the numbers, not what the company says

If you take what Eurostar has said in its press release, Alstom has said in its press release, and what has appeared in the FT and The Guardian among others yesterday, you end up with the impression that these Avelia Horizon double deck trains Eurostar is to order from Alstom

jonworth.eu

I'd personally go with option 2 - Replace the 373s (E300s) and ex-Thalys PBAs.

The Duplex-derived power cars on the PBKAs can probably soldier on for quite a while given that spare parts will also be manufactured for SNCF's large fleet of them. This won't be the case for the Réseau/Atlantique-derived power cars on the PBAs given that SNCF will begin phasing out the former.

I think its likely that the PBKA sets will no longer run into Germany, given that their performance on 15kV 16.7 Hz AC electrification is quite poor, only being capable of outputting 6,920 HP as opposed to 11,800 on 25 kV 50 Hz AC electrification and supposedly not being able to run beyond 200 KPH. The run to Cologne/Ruhr also has to only stretch of >160 KPH running on DC electrification, between Brussels and Leuven where they can only output 4,930 HP out of a possible 11,800 HP. I'd imagine that with improvements to transformer technology the new double-deckers will present a significant performance improvement on this route, offsetting the longer dwell times associated with double-deck trains.

I would also hope that the services from Paris to Germany all run to Essen and maybe Dortmund.

In turn I'd keep the PBKAs on the Paris to Amsterdam services in where the linespeed doesn't exceed 160 KPH on lines electrified with DC, running in pairs throughout the day.

 

[Trainbike46]

Lots of the comments here assume that Eurostar wants to add capacity to grow passenger numbers. SNCF’s recent strategy has been the opposite, reduce services, pack remaining ones, raise prices. It’s entirely possible Eurostars strategy will be the same.

That seems like a great strategy to give market share away to competitors, both already existing and future. Eurostar has repeatedly stated they intend to grow passenger numbers, and recent actions, like increasing the frequency on London-Amsterdam from 3 tpd this spring to 5 tpd from December*, support their stated intention. Remember Eurostar faces direct competition on most routes already:
- Eurocity and Eurocity Direct on Amsterdam-Brussels
- ICE international on Brussels-Koln
- Ouigo Classic on Brussels-Paris
- SNCF TGV Inoui on Lille-Brussels and Brussels-CDG/MLV

So while it certainly is possible that Eurostar follows the wider SNCF strategy, I don't think it is likely.

*Note this is on top of increasing the per-train capacity from Amsterdam on that route as well.

 

[NCT]

That seems like a great strategy to give market share away to competitors, both already existing and future.

SNCF seems to be doing just that in France!

They are just lying flat letting Trenitalia, Ilisto and Proxima take up capacity on France's flagship LGVs.

 

[43096]

Metaphorically speaking you'd be milking a dry cow trying to get another ten years out of the old fleet. Running at 300km/h everyday is enough to wear out any train over 30 years, never mind one that also has to contend with the salty sea air of the Channel Tunnel and it's subsequent corrosion when it's not running at those great speeds. They were revolutionary trains for their time, and I'd absolutely support preservation of at least one or two sets, but they are most definitely reaching the end of their days in commercial service.

DB’s ICE1 fleet says hello… currently 34 years old and going through a second heavy refurbishment for continued use.