The future of the Heathrow Express

[quantinghome]

So about 1/3rd down on its peak year

PS That's quite a lot

I wondered if we could get hold of the financials as well... turns out we can! https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/03145133/filing-history

Here are the results for the last two years, then the two years prior to covid:

Year	Revenue	Costs	Operating Profit
2024	96,698	(89,579)	7,119
2023	103,311	(85,820)	17,491
...
2019	119,415	(84,116)	35,299
2018	130,758	(89,068)	41,690
2018 (in 2024 £)	165,000	(113,000)	53,000

So they are managing to keep costs about level nominally (reducing in real terms), but with falling revenues (>40% reduction in real terms from 2018 to 2024) their operating profit has been smashed to bits.

 

[Tetchytyke]

A gradual reduction in usage is seen post-covid. A bit tricky to translate into revenue but I would guess they're getting around £80m per year judging from the value (if that's the right term) of their advance/single/return fares

Thank you.

A 35% decrease in numbers compared to pre-EL is a really big drop off. But they’re still healthy figures and EL certainly couldn’t pick up the slack of 4m passengers.

Looks like we might have to keep HEx. Question is whether they’ll bite and cut their margin to increase ridership.

 

[Djgr]

Thank you.

A 35% decrease in numbers compared to pre-EL is a really big drop off. But they’re still healthy figures and EL certainly couldn’t pick up the slack of 4m passengers.

Looks like we might have to keep HEx. Question is whether they’ll bite and cut their margin to increase ridership.

The fall in revenue from 2023 to 2024 is particularly scary. I don't see this as healthy at all.

Another fall like that and they won't be showing a profit (although I can certainly spot a number of expenditure lines that could be subject to spin-doctor massage)

 

[JonathanH]

Even if the paths couldn't be repurposed, which in the medium term they clearly could, eliminating the HEx paths would provide some useful slack in the system around Paddington.

Wouldn't the railway then be throwing away the revenue that using the HEx paths brings it?

 

[JamesRowden]

Wouldn't the railway then be throwing away the revenue that using the HEx paths brings it?

Quicker / more reliable journeys should reduce costs and/or raise extra revenue.

 

[Tetchytyke]

The fall in revenue from 2023 to 2024 is particularly scary. I don't see this as healthy at all.

The decrease in revenue was £7m, so about 6%. Not brilliant but £96m revenue is still pretty healthy.

Profit has always been a matter of opinion really, especially when you’re looking at significant intergroup charges. But on those figures it’s still a margin of about 7.5%.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Sep 2025 ==

Quicker / more reliable journeys should reduce costs and/or raise extra revenue.

HEx is still carrying 4m passengers a year. Those people can’t really be accommodated on EL without additional capacity. HEx’s fast line paths are useless to EL.

 

[Zomboid]

The trend since Crossrail opened isn't great, but if it's still profitable I don't see why the airport would want to stop doing it.

 

[Brubulus]

From what I understand, there are 3 110mph paths each hour which aren't HEX. A compromise could be to reduce HEX to 2tph, which would unlock 1 extra path each hour.

 

[Mgameing123]

I think it will continue until it turns a loss.

 

[Bletchleyite]

From what I understand, there are 3 110mph paths each hour which aren't HEX. A compromise could be to reduce HEX to 2tph, which would unlock 1 extra path each hour.

I can't see people using it that much if it did drop to 2tph.

I think it will continue until it turns a loss.

Most probably. And I don't think, based on the figures above, that will be very far off! It might even be this year...

 

[quantinghome]

HEx is still carrying 4m passengers a year. Those people can’t really be accommodated on EL without additional capacity. HEx’s fast line paths are useless to EL.

EL carries 242m passengers a year. In the last year alone EL's passenger numbers increased by over 22m. I think it can manage.

 

[Trainbike46]

HEx is still carrying 4m passengers a year. Those people can’t really be accommodated on EL without additional capacity. HEx’s fast line paths are useless to EL.

Couldn't done of the intended OOC terminators be extended to Heathrow, staying on the slow lines until the airport branch?

 

[HSTEd]

Couldn't done of the intended OOC terminators be extended to Heathrow, staying on the slow lines until the airport branch?

They'd most likely run into the back of the parade of aggregates trains.

If paths were available they'd already be in use.

 

[cactustwirly]

That’s more or less what Heathrow are going to do.


Re the HEx paths, in the off peak they probably could be repurposed as far as Reading, but what happens after there is subject to capacity constraints somewhere or other.

Send them to Theale, there is a spare platform

 

[Tetchytyke]

EL carries 242m passengers a year. In the last year alone EL's passenger numbers increased by over 22m. I think it can manage.

EL is already getting close to capacity, which is why we're seeing them fiddle with things at the eastern end of the line by starting to turn some trains short at Gidea Park.

 

[Djgr]

I think it will continue until it turns a loss

If there is a similar 6% fall in revenue 2024 to 2025 as there was between 2023 to 2024 then I would expect it to be become loss making in the next set of accounts (as most of their costs will not flex down as revenue falls).

 

[quantinghome]

EL is already getting close to capacity, which is why we're seeing them fiddle with things at the eastern end of the line by starting to turn some trains short at Gidea Park.

Sure, but adding the remaining HEx passengers is a small fraction of the overall growth in passengers EL is seeing. This overall growth is why they're getting another 10 trains next year.

Just to reiterate: 4m vs 242m.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Sure, but adding the remaining HEx passengers is a small fraction of the overall growth in passengers EL is seeing. This overall growth is why they're getting another 10 trains next year.

Just to reiterate: 4m vs 242m.

In the context of the whole EL I agree with you. HEx numbers are a rounding error compared to the number of people travelling through the core.

But to be more specific: the existing 6tph EL from Heathrow probably couldn't accommodate the HEx passengers without an increase in capacity. Especially as the existing service would also have to accommodate the growth from the local stations such as Ealing Broadway. I'm not sure how much more capacity there is available on the slows between Paddington and Airport Junction.

It'll be interesting to see what gives. Clearly the HEx model of charging high fares to fewer passengers isn't going to work in the longer term, as we're seeing with the drop in passenger numbers. I think they're going to have to drop their fares to attract more passengers.

I would pay a £5-£10 premium to travel HEx compared to EL, I wouldn't pay a £25 premium (which in effect it is, as the EL is included in the Z1-6 cap whereas HEx is in addition to the cap). The numbers show a lot of people have made the same decision.

It's interesting to see the changes to the advance ticket offer, now you can get the £10 tickets by booking 30 days in advance; it used to be 45 days. I can well imagine that coming down to 14 days or even 7 days in due course.

 

[NCT]

On account that it's the same set of services serving both Heathrow and Acton Main Line, just expecting Heathrow passengers to migrate to EL will be problematic.

Given EL competition, I do wonder if chasing volume over chasing yield will now be a better business model for HEx.

 

[Djgr]

In the context of the whole EL I agree with you. HEx numbers are a rounding error compared to the number of people travelling through the core.

But to be more specific: the existing 6tph EL from Heathrow probably couldn't accommodate the HEx passengers without an increase in capacity. Especially as the existing service would also have to accommodate the growth from the local stations such as Ealing Broadway. I'm not sure how much more capacity there is available on the slows between Paddington and Airport Junction.

It'll be interesting to see what gives. Clearly the HEx model of charging high fares to fewer passengers isn't going to work in the longer term, as we're seeing with the drop in passenger numbers. I think they're going to have to drop their fares to attract more passengers.

I would pay a £5-£10 premium to travel HEx compared to EL, I wouldn't pay a £25 premium (which in effect it is, as the EL is included in the Z1-6 cap whereas HEx is in addition to the cap). The numbers show a lot of people have made the same decision.

It's interesting to see the changes to the advance ticket offer, now you can get the £10 tickets by booking 30 days in advance; it used to be 45 days. I can well imagine that coming down to 14 days or even 7 days in due course.

The fundamental problem with HEX is that it dumps you at Paddington, which is not going to be the final destination for the overwhelming percentage of its passengers. That was fine when there was no effective choice...but now there is.

There is a reason why HEX employ so many touts at the airport and it's not a pretty one.

 

[Tetchytyke]

The fundamental problem with HEX is that it dumps you at Paddington, which is not going to be the final destination for the overwhelming percentage of its passengers.

Definitely agree.

This is where the capping issue really matters. The EL single fare is about £10 less than the HEx single fare. £10 extra to go on the express doesn't seem too unreasonable, certainly not in the context of what air travellers have paid for their plane tickets, although its a shame the 387s weren't refurbished to the same standard as the old 332s.

But the EL single fare counts towards the Z1-6 daily cap, so effectively it means that the rest of your travel in London that day is free of charge. HEx isn't, so suddenly the premium to go on HEx isn't £10, it's more like £20.

 

[Snow1964]

From what I understand, there are 3 110mph paths each hour which aren't HEX. A compromise could be to reduce HEX to 2tph, which would unlock 1 extra path each hour.

Someone needs to explain why it has to be 2tph or 4tph in the future.

With the current HEX contract extended to 2027, and high level platforms of Old Oak Common opening months later, why can the fast line timetable not be reconfigured to run every 20min (3tph) going forward.

Only a small proportion of GWR fast line destinations are half hourly, many are only hourly so not that critical which part of the hour they run in. Surely the timetable should be built around the pinch points, not because it provides optimal connections at places like Westbury or Exeter (which it doesn't in current form)

 

[NCT]

DO. NOT. EVER. IMPOSE. A. 20. MINUTE. TIMETABLE. STRUCTURE. ANYWHERE. EVER. AGAIN.

(apart from self-contained Birmingham HS2 services)

 

[cav1975]

As with all companies that are wholly owned by other companies you have to look at the charges that the owning company makes to its subsidiary. These are often quite opaque and affect declared profitability. I note that there are £15m of such charges in the latest accounts.

 

[cactustwirly]

Someone needs to explain why it has to be 2tph or 4tph in the future.

With the current HEX contract extended to 2027, and high level platforms of Old Oak Common opening months later, why can the fast line timetable not be reconfigured to run every 20min (3tph) going forward.

Only a small proportion of GWR fast line destinations are half hourly, many are only hourly so not that critical which part of the hour they run in. Surely the timetable should be built around the pinch points, not because it provides optimal connections at places like Westbury or Exeter (which it doesn't in current form)

That doesn't work because the Didcot semi fasts have a half hourly interval and need to fit around the Elizabeth line on the relief lines west of Slough/Maidenhead

 

[Bletchleyite]

DO. NOT. EVER. IMPOSE. A. 20. MINUTE. TIMETABLE. STRUCTURE. ANYWHERE. EVER. AGAIN.

You can do it, but if you're building a proper Takt you have to choose between intervals of 5-10-20-60-120, 5-10-30-60-120 OR 5-15-30-60-120, you cannot mix them.

 

[NCT]

You can do it, but if you're building a proper Takt you have to choose between intervals of 5-10-20-60-120, 5-10-30-60-120 OR 5-15-30-60-120, you cannot mix them.

Given that 30-minute cycles are appropriate for the vast majority of the country and in practice, and all timetables interface each other, 20-minute cycles are an absolute no-no.

 

[John R]

It might be of interest that, compared with previous quarters, the latest (Q4) figure for HEx was actually up on previous years, which may suggest that the clear decline we've seen in the last couple of years has been halted. However, one swallow doesn't make a summer, so I await the Q1 figures with interest (which frustratingly are around 6 weeks later than usually published, so not due until the end of October).

 

[Tester]

Given that 30-minute cycles are appropriate for the vast majority of the country and in practice, and all timetables interface each other, 20-minute cycles are an absolute no-no.

This is correct.

Australia has a bad habit of using 20 minute intervals - with alternate variations giving 40 minute intervals. It isn't pretty.

 

[cactustwirly]

This is correct.

Australia has a bad habit of using 20 minute intervals - with alternate variations giving 40 minute intervals. It isn't pretty.

Munich S-Bahn runs on 20 minute intervals
Believe Stuttgart and Frankfurt are 30 minutes