Guardian reporting potential NPR "formal revival"

[eldomtom2]

Of course people who've chosen to work in transport famously don't want to improve transport. Most consultants don't want to be working on endless feasibility studies, they want to work on things that get built. It's a very competitive industry too, so if you're ripping off the tax payer, you'll struggle to get more work.

There clearly are systemic issues in the UK though, since everything takes longer and costs more than it does in Europe. Of course, said issues probably aren't the result of malice.

 

[Snow1964]

There clearly are systemic issues in the UK though, since everything takes longer and costs more than it does in Europe. Of course, said issues probably aren't the result of malice.

The UK doesn't work from the basis that capacity limitations mean we need X project, so let's do the project and find a solution.

Instead we waste time and money having decided it's needed, then doing multiple feasibility studies, then dither, then try and estimate a cost benefit ratio, then think can we bodge something else. Then politicians change and a U turn happens for a while even where BCR ratios of 3+ exist.

Long term strategy is not consistent even for national infrastructure

 

[childwallblues]

So Big Andy and little Steves vanity project is to be paused (forever I hope).

The North West Region is crying out for major improvements to its current railways.

Numbers 1 and 2 are The Calder Valley and the CLC from Trafford Park to Hunts Cross West.

And I never understood why the Lancashire Triangle Electrification never included the L & Y mainline from Salford Crescent to Crows Nest Junction.

There are plenty more that could be improved if funds were available that would benefit the local travelling public. If thet want to improve access to Manchester Airport perhaps they should look again at reviving again the western access line project.

 

[chris2]

So Big Andy and little Steves vanity project is to be paused (forever I hope.
The North West Region is crying out for major improvements to its current railways. Numbers 1 and 2 are The Calder Valley and the CLC from Trafford Park to Hunts Cross West. And I never understood why the Lancashire Triangle Electrification never included the L & Y mainline from Salford Crescent to Crows Nest Junction. There are plenty more that could be improved if funds were available that would benefit the local travelling public. If thet want to improve access to Manchester Airport perhaps they should look again at reviving again the western access line project.

Well, it's curious that you say the North West region is crying out for improvements, right after you celebrate the pausing of a huge investment scheme in the NW.

If the assumption is that the LMR railway would have been less effective than other upgrades, what evidence is there to back this up?

Have both the LMR scheme and an alternative upgrade approach been fully appraised in terms of their costs and benefits, such that a fair comparison can be made?

 

[Grimsby town]

There clearly are systemic issues in the UK though, since everything takes longer and costs more than it does in Europe. Of course, said issues probably aren't the result of malice.

There's plenty of systematic issues with the way we do large transport projects in the UK and one is definitely that too much transport work is outsourced to consultancies but it's not really the consultancies fault and certainly not the planners and engineers fault, who are generally just as frustrated with lack of progress.

I've heard people say that getting rid of business cases would solve the problem but a full business case for something like TRU is measured in the £millions and the schemes are costing £billions.

HS2 definitely had issues with lack of ground condition surveying so I can understand why the government doesn't want to rush things on NPR but they also need to show progress otherwise they'll lose to Reform and it'll be cancelled anyway.

 

[slowroad]

There's plenty of systematic issues with the way we do large transport projects in the UK and one is definitely that too much transport work is outsourced to consultancies but it's not really the consultancies fault and certainly not the planners and engineers fault, who are generally just as frustrated with lack of progress. I've heard people say that getting rid of business cases would solve the problem but a full business case for something like TRU is measured in the £millions and the schemes are costing £billions.

HS2 definitely had issues with lack of ground condition surveying so I can understand why the government doesn't want to rush things on NPR but they also need to show progress otherwise they'll lose to Reform and it'll be cancelled anyway.

Surely rail accounts for such a small modal share outside London and SE that it would not be an election issue?

 

[quantinghome]

Surely rail accounts for such a small modal share outside London and SE that it would not be an election issue?

Correct. It's consistently polled as the least important issue facing the country for more than a decade.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/the-most-important-issues-facing-the-country

 

[Grimsby town]

Surely rail accounts for such a small modal share outside London and SE that it would not be an election issue?

I don't think its specifically about rail, its about lack of investment in the north. A lot of people in the north said they didn't want HS2 but there was significant unrest when it was cancelled because the south was getting HS2.

Governments have been talking about HS3/NPR for years but it never materialises while the south/London has had crossrail, commitments to Gatwick and Heathrow expansion and HS2 (although most of that wasn't funded by Central government but most people won't be aware of that)

 

[Halifaxlad]

Manchester, plus a tunnelled route through Bradford.

We don't need a tunnelled route through or under the city of Bradford!

A tunnel as part of a new route between Bradford and Huddersfield, possibly but under the city centre and an underground station absolutely uneccesary and not in the interest of Bradford!

 

[slowroad]

I don't think its specifically about rail, its about lack of investment in the north. A lot of people in the north said they didn't want HS2 but there was significant unrest when it was cancelled because the south was getting HS2. Governments have been talking about HS3/NPR for years but it never materialises while the south/London has had crossrail, commitments to Gatwick and Heathrow expansion and HS2 (although most of that wasn't funded by Central government but most people won't be aware of that)

If it’s perceived to cost £££s but vast majority won’t benefit personally there may kudos in cancelling.

 

[BrianW]

If it’s perceived to cost £££s but vast majority won’t benefit personally there may kudos in cancelling.

Broadening alittle /...
Yesterday's 'PM' programme on Radio4 had a feature with Ewan Blair (yes, that scion of the former PM) dilating on the future with AI and the need for upskilling, spoke of the need to embrace and look after those 'left behind' as had happened in the 1980s de-industrialisation (ie under Thatcher):

From about 50mins in: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002jtyq

Maybe a kind of 'prophetic word' for a Blair 2.0 government regarding the former Red Wall, and the need for a Labour government to show it cares for 'the North'.

If Starmer is not able (or willing) to give a cast-iron undertaking to 'the North' (in the way that the current Gtr Manchester Mayor is sugesting) he is doomed. What is a Labour government FOR?

He must promise at least a bone to 'the North' when they meet in red Liverpool next week or he will hit the buffers.

 

[Technologist]

There clearly are systemic issues in the UK though, since everything takes longer and costs more than it does in Europe. Of course, said issues probably aren't the result of malice.

The issues are mostly:

1: All levels of government lack capacity to plan and build of transport infrastructure. I saw a film recently of a rail bridge being slid into position as part of the Derby ring road in 1970's a reasonably ground breaking approach especially as it was being done under computer control, this was all being designed and managed by the County Council's civil engineering department. The motorway network was mostly built under the supervision of the engineering department of the county councils where the roads ran.

2: Funding and incentives aren't aligned, if you look at how they build metro systems in Spain the building of a Metro is usually an electoral promise of the regional government or mayor. They generally want it done in a time period where they can claim credit at the polls and they have the tax raising and borrowing powers to substantially fund the works. This means that there isn't treasury brain slowing stuff down to meet annual budgets and if they go over budget the local authorities are locally responsible which means that environmental assessments and permits tend to get delivered on time.

3: Given the above two cases the volume and consistency of work mean that construction companies are larger and better equipped and thus projects have fewer levels of subcontracting and less ability to obscure decision making.

 

[Snow1964]

The BBC news on TV (so no link) had an interview with Prime minister Sir Kier Starmer with him standing on a rooftop doing interviews.

Got asked about Northern Powerhouse Rail and said he is absolutely committed to NPR

Of course committed to, and actually getting on with, are two different things.

 

[Mogster]

The starting and stopping with these infrastructure projects seems to have become the norm and it’s massively frustrating. I’m convinced HS2 to Manchester will be built, it’ll just be years later than it could have been and cost much more due to inflation in the meantime.

I can’t think of it any other way but rampant short termism. Anything that can’t be completed in a single government term frequently gets cancelled. If it isn’t cancelled by the incumbents for political advantage it will definitely be cancelled by the next lot as they don’t want anything the previous administration initiated being a success. So everything stops and a slightly different project starts, from the ground up with feasibility studies, and round and round we go.

Hugely depressing.

 

[Halifaxlad]

The BBC news on TV (so no link) had an interview with Prime minister Sir Kier Starmer with him standing on a rooftop doing interviews.

Got asked about Northern Powerhouse Rail and said he is absolutely committed to NPR

Of course committed to, and actually getting on with, are two different things.

Does he even know what it is ?

 

[HSTEd]

The starting and stopping with these infrastructure projects seems to have become the norm and it’s massively frustrating. I’m convinced HS2 to Manchester will be built, it’ll just be years later than it could have been and cost much more due to inflation in the meantime.

I can’t think of it any other way but rampant short termism. Anything that can’t be completed in a single government term frequently gets cancelled. If it isn’t cancelled by the incumbents for political advantage it will definitely be cancelled by the next lot as they don’t want anything the previous administration initiated being a success. So everything stops and a slightly different project starts, from the ground up with feasibility studies, and round and round we go.

Hugely depressing.

I amn of the view that HS2 was proposed primarily as a poison pill for the Conservative party.

Labour had a damascene conversion from opposing high speed rail to supporting it in 2009, about the time it became obvious they had no real chance of winning the next election. They managed to frame the project in such a way as to make it impossible for the Conservative party to oppose, as spending on infrastructure was very much in vogue at the time.

HS2 had 15 years of political consensus behind it and it still failed. I don't think you can blame political short termism for the utter failure to deliver.

Whether it was picking an unwinnable fight with the EU over platform heights (saved by Brexit), or an unwinnable fight with the Chilterns lobby over tunne lengths, they made plenty of blunders all of their own.

I'd say that stopping and starting doesn't help, but even when it doesn't happen things still seem to go wrong.

 

[MadMac]

Does he even know what it is ?

Will you knock it off with them negative waves?

 

[yorksrob]

So Big Andy and little Steves vanity project is to be paused (forever I hope.
The North West Region is crying out for major improvements to its current railways. Numbers 1 and 2 are The Calder Valley and the CLC from Trafford Park to Hunts Cross West. And I never understood why the Lancashire Triangle Electrification never included the L & Y mainline from Salford Crescent to Crows Nest Junction. There are plenty more that could be improved if funds were available that would benefit the local travelling public. If thet want to improve access to Manchester Airport perhaps they should look again at reviving again the western access line project.

I wouldn't put it quite that way - but yes, TRU will be fine enough. They should move onto improving the rest of the network instead.

 

[geoffk]

Oh, yay, PFI, that old hat.

Paying For Indefinitely.

 

[Halifaxlad]

Ww2

I wouldn't put it quite that way - but yes, TRU will be fine enough. They should move onto improving the rest of the network instead.

Quite.

NPR has become a name for politicians to push their own pet projects!

What we need is for a body to take it forward maybe call it something like 'Transport for the North'

Then again they decided to combine it with HS2 which is why we are in this mess.

 

[childwallblues]

I wouldn't put it quite that way - but yes, TRU will be fine enough. They should move onto improving the rest of the network instead.

Thank you. I agree with your comments. The Liverpool City Metro Mayor is happy to back this project but not one that would support a fixed link to Liverpool Airport. His preference is for a "glider bus". Now without building new bus lanes and fixing the traffic lights in favor of bus lanes it is just going to get held up in traffic

 

[Grimsby town]

I wouldn't put it quite that way - but yes, TRU will be fine enough. They should move onto improving the rest of the network instead.

TRU probably is fine for the foreseeable future but NPR is about more than Leeds to Manchester. There's always a lot of confusion about what NPR is given the definition has changed a couple of times. I heard on the news it being referred to as a new line from Liverpool to Hull for example which has never been the case. I think the best definition is investment in a series of new or upgraded lines between the north's largest cities.

So while TRU has achieved that for Leeds to Manchester, it hasn't for other routes. So the next decision should be how do we improve connectivity between the rest of the north's major cities. My thoughts would be:

• Upgrade - Hull-Leeds doesn't have the capacity issues of other routes and is relatively straight.
• Upgrade - Sheffield-Leeds has alternative diversionary routes (via Barnsley) and has space for additional tracks and speed upgrades in a lot of places.
• Upgrade - Sheffield to Manchester generally through rural areas so speeds and passing loops can be created. Diversions can occur via Huddersfield after TRU.
• New line - Liverpool-Manchester doesn't have easy diversionary routes for TPE services and difficult to upgrade as large parts of the current lines have never been 4 tracks and are located in urban areas.

It'd also have to consider connections to Bradford and Newcastle. I'm hoping this is what the government are planning to do with this delay.

 

[yorksrob]

Ww2


Quite.

NPR has become a name for politicians to push their own pet projects!

What we need is for a body to take it forward maybe call it something like 'Transport for the North'

Then again they decided to combine it with HS2 which is why we are in this mess.

Network North perhaps ?

Thank you. I agree with your comments. The Liverpool City Metro Mayor is happy to back this project but not one that would support a fixed link to Liverpool Airport. His preference is for a "glider bus". Now without building new bus lanes and fixing the traffic lights in favor of bus lanes it is just going to get held up in traffic

It seems to be the case that with airport rail links, we usually end up wondering why we didn't build it sooner !

I've often wondered how much money the Southern Region could have made if it had built a short branch to Heathrow Airport in the 1950's/60's - basic 2 track stretch, concrete components from Exmouth Junction etc.

TRU probably is fine for the foreseeable future but NPR is about more than Leeds to Manchester. There's always a lot of confusion about what NPR is given the definition has changed a couple of times. I heard on the news it being referred to as a new line from Liverpool to Hull for example which has never been the case. I think the best definition is investment in a series of new or upgraded lines between the north's largest cities.

So while TRU has achieved that for Leeds to Manchester, it hasn't for other routes. So the next decision should be how do we improve connectivity between the rest of the north's major cities. My thoughts would be:

• Upgrade - Hull-Leeds doesn't have the capacity issues of other routes and is relatively straight.
• Upgrade - Sheffield-Leeds has alternative diversionary routes (via Barnsley) and has space for additional tracks and speed upgrades in a lot of places.
• Upgrade - Sheffield to Manchester generally through rural areas so speeds and passing loops can be created. Diversions can occur via Huddersfield after TRU.
• New line - Liverpool-Manchester doesn't have easy diversionary routes for TPE services and difficult to upgrade as large parts of the current lines have never been 4 tracks and are located in urban areas.

It'd also have to consider connections to Bradford and Newcastle. I'm hoping this is what the government are planning to do with this delay.

Yes, this is precisely what I mean. Once TRU has improved Leeds - Manchester, it should spread out to Hull, Liverpool, Newcastle, the Calder Valley etc.

Extend all the platforms to 12 carriages as part of it.

 

[HSTEd]

Ultimately the Treasury is more interested in life cycle subsidy for projects than just the upfront cost.

So if an upgrade programme for more services/more capacity can't produce that uplift without a net increase in subsidy, it could come out far more expensive than its capital cost would suggest.

 

[yorksrob]

Ultimately the Treasury is more interested in life cycle subsidy for projects than just the upfront cost.

So if an upgrade programme for more services/more capacity can't produce that uplift without a net increase in subsidy, it could come out far more expensive than its capital cost would suggest.

Its an interesting point. Will a new line across the pennines have the potential to generate more revenue than less speedy, but better services across a larger proportion of the North.

 

[HSTEd]

Its an interesting point. Will a new line across the pennines have the potential to generate more revenue than less speedy, but better services across a larger proportion of the North.

Well a fast line from Manchester to Leeds would benefit a much wider range of journeys than that.

But the Japanese experience has been yes. This is why they have been building Shinkansen in places with such low traffic densities that many of the intermediate stations don't even have loops for the platforms!

The faster journeys drive more traffic and increase revenue by more than the incremental cost, although what happens to the residual legacy railway is obviously going to be a big question mark on that.

 

[lotsofsweat]

So Big Andy and little Steves vanity project is to be paused (forever I hope).

The North West Region is crying out for major improvements to its current railways.

Numbers 1 and 2 are The Calder Valley and the CLC from Trafford Park to Hunts Cross West.

And I never understood why the Lancashire Triangle Electrification never included the L & Y mainline from Salford Crescent to Crows Nest Junction.

There are plenty more that could be improved if funds were available that would benefit the local travelling public. If thet want to improve access to Manchester Airport perhaps they should look again at reviving again the western access line project.

I also feel like the current version of LMR is a vanity project, too many detours and the tunnel from the airport is too long.

Electrification, new passing loops, signalling and a short east-west tunnel through Manchester city centre would be better, to act like the Thameslink of the North, serving Bolton, Salford, Tameside, Liverpool, and Leeds.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Sep 2025 ==

Thank you. I agree with your comments. The Liverpool City Metro Mayor is happy to back this project but not one that would support a fixed link to Liverpool Airport. His preference is for a "glider bus". Now without building new bus lanes and fixing the traffic lights in favor of bus lanes it is just going to get held up in traffic

Oh the glider bus is a really bad idea!

 

[yorksrob]

Well a fast line from Manchester to Leeds would benefit a much wider range of journeys than that.

But the Japanese experience has been yes. This is why they have been building Shinkansen in places with such low traffic densities that many of the intermediate stations don't even have loops for the platforms!

The faster journeys drive more traffic and increase revenue by more than the incremental cost, although what happens to the residual legacy railway is obviously going to be a big question mark on that.

I wonder how much it comes down to length of journey as well. Certainly the distances between Leeds and Manchester aren't huge. I'm inclined to think that frequency and capacity are likely to be bigger drivers for revenue on these distances. Frequency wise, the TPE core is already every fifteen minutes. Longer trains seem the future benefit.

 

[Grimsby town]

I wonder how much it comes down to length of journey as well. Certainly the distances between Leeds and Manchester aren't huge. I'm inclined to think that frequency and capacity are likely to be bigger drivers for revenue on these distances. Frequency wise, the TPE core is already every fifteen minutes. Longer trains seem the future benefit.

Longer trains are definitely part of the solution but I think around 208 metres (an 8 car 802 for example) seems to be a sensible maximum. I'd imagine the marginal cost of going above that will be significant. One train every 15 minutes is fine but only running 4 fast trains per hour is going to mean a relatively poor frequency on the extremities. I think 6 trains is the right balance, with 2 to Hull, 2 to Newcastle, 1 to Middlesbrough and 1 to Scarborough.

 

[yorksrob]

Longer trains are definitely part of the solution but I think around 208 metres (an 8 car 802 for example) seems to be a sensible maximum. I'd imagine the marginal cost of going above that will be significant. One train every 15 minutes is fine but only running 4 fast trains per hour is going to mean a relatively poor frequency on the extremities. I think 6 trains is the right balance, with 2 to Hull, 2 to Newcastle, 1 to Middlesbrough and 1 to Scarborough.

That sounds like a good pattern of services. 8 carriage trains seems good to aim for - although given London commuter trains are routinely longer, should we restrict services between the major Northern cities to that ? (Southern Region/NSE person in me coming out)