East-West Rail (EWR) countdown to entry into service

[Zomboid]

They've only got 6 196 units allocated and will need 4 diagrams for a half hourly service. So limited scope for any 4 car operations, unless they get some 168s involved.

 

[djox]

Not sure if this is the right thread for this question, but are there not concerns that the Oxford to MK service is going to suffer from mass overcrowding from day one, considering the use of 2-coach trains?

Yes, I think the Ox to MK passengers numbers will be high and they'll then need to acquire some more carriages. But Oxford passengers are used to overcrowding as they have CrossCountry to deal with.

 

[Zomboid]

Hopefully Chiltern will get those mk5s into service and free up some 168s to allow longer trains - and hopefully the service will be popular enough that that will be needed!

 

[The Planner]

Hopefully Chiltern will get those mk5s into service and free up some 168s to allow longer trains - and hopefully the service will be popular enough that that will be needed!

You'll be waiting a while for those.

 

[Nottingham59]

How busy is the Oxford to Milton Keynes bus service?

 

[Joey Beauchamp]

How busy is the Oxford to Milton Keynes bus service?

That's obviously not completely irrelevant, but considering the X5 takes twice as long as the train service will, I would expect the train to be significantly busier.

 

[Zomboid]

I have to make the journey from time to time - the bus is just not viable. It doesn't stop in Oxford after leaving the city centre, so I'd have to spend half an hour going in just to come back out again (if it stopped at Peartree or Parkway then it would be considerably more useful to those of us who live to the north of the city), and then is subject to the whims of the A34 and runs through Bicester and Buckingham town centres.

I hate the drive, but the bus is just not competitive. The train will be quicker door to door than driving (if I drive to Parkway) and I won't have to actually drive very much at all, so unless fares are beyond a joke (not impossible!) then I'll be getting the train every time...

 

[fishwomp]

How busy is the Oxford to Milton Keynes bus service?

Not very - and so not super-relevant. It has the same issue as the road: traffic. That, plus stopping in Buckingham and Bicester makes for a very long unpalatable journey - 2x the rail time.

That traffic is there because of wider cross-country convergence on M40 J9 (M40 + A34, A41 + A34, M1 + M40 + A34 etc) so it's not all going to switch of course. Some of the container traffic from Southampton is already going via the new line - and some will be won from the roads.

 

[Tazi Hupefi]

I do think 2-car services will be woefully inadequate pretty much from day one.

I suspect that there will be some negative manipulation of fares / routing permissions so that customers don't end up travelling from the North West/West Midlands to the Oxford area via Milton Keynes, and they will do their best to keep it primarily as a local branch service, rather than a viable alternative to the likes of XC. Shame really, but inevitable I think.

 

[Bletchleyite]

With 6 units they should surely be able to double up one peak service each way with one maintenance spare?

 

[A S Leib]

and they will do their best to keep it primarily as a local branch service, rather than a viable alternative to the likes of XC.

Which keeps the question of whether Winslow or London would be cheaper, or how much cheaper it would be, for Bedford, Watford and Northampton to places like Reading and Swindon.

 

[Nottingham59]

That's obviously not completely irrelevant, but considering the X5 takes twice as long as the train service will, I would expect the train to be significantly busier.

Sure. I would expect the train to be busier than the bus. Perhaps 3 or 4 times given the speed advantages, though that will depend on ticket pricing, and many bus users during the daytime will be concessionary travellers who won't switch.

The X5 bus seems to provide 100 - 150 seats per hour on that corridor, but I don't know how busy those buses are. Do passengers often get left behind because the bus is full? If not, then my guess is the buses will be a quarter full on average during the day, rising to fullish in the peak travel-to-work hours.

The 2-car 196 service on EWR will supply 2x141=282 seats per hour. That's more than an hourly 5-car XC Voyager. I would expect that to be fine during the daytime, but maybe with people standing in the peaks. Is that sufficient? I guess we will have to wait and see.

 

[cle]

We probably have to see and feel that breaking point before anything is done.

 

[zwk500]

The 2-car 196 service on EWR will supply 2x141=282 seats per hour. That's more than an hourly 5-car XC Voyager. I would expect that to be fine during the daytime, but maybe with people standing in the peaks. Is that sufficient? I guess we will have to wait and see.

I expect it'll be fine for the moment. My concern is that once the housing starts being built because the line's actually open, how sustainable 106m platforms are. That limits trains to 4x23m, and even with the high frequencies proposed the volume of housing this line is expected to support is big.

(106m operational platform length listed for Winslow and Bletchley P7/8 in the latest Timetable Planning Rules).

 

[cle]

I expect it'll be fine for the moment. My concern is that once the housing starts being built because the line's actually open, how sustainable 106m platforms are. That limits trains to 4x23m, and even with the high frequencies proposed the volume of housing this line is expected to support is big.

(106m operational platform length listed for Winslow and Bletchley P7/8 in the latest Timetable Planning Rules).

How much is actually planned for Winslow? I would think Oxford Parkway would be an excellent place for a lot more development, given it also has London services - and combined, 4tph into Oxford itself. With more in future.

 

[zwk500]

How much is actually planned for Winslow? I would think Oxford Parkway would be an excellent place for a lot more development, given it also has London services - and combined, 4tph into Oxford itself. With more in future.

In 2022 there was a fair bit, and I expect Bicester, Oxford, MK and the Marston Vale will have more as well.

Winslow may cope with SDO (imperfect solution that it is) but anything longer than 5-car won't fit in MKC Platform 2a, and Bletchley is 106m as well.

https://buckinghamshire.moderngov.co.uk/documents/s60807/Winslow%20Neighbourhood%20Plan%20Review%20Referendum%20Version.pdf

 

[Zomboid]

How much is actually planned for Winslow? I would think Oxford Parkway would be an excellent place for a lot more development, given it also has London services - and combined, 4tph into Oxford itself. With more in future.

Development near parkway is tricky because there's supposed to be a definite green belt between Oxford and Kidlington. It's one of the things that's a bit controversial about the football stadium plan.

I'm not sure how legally enforced that is, but it's more than just nimbyism behind objections.

 

[fishwomp]

I suspect that there will be some negative manipulation of fares / routing permissions so that customers don't end up travelling from the North West/West Midlands to the Oxford area via Milton Keynes, and they will do their best to keep it primarily as a local branch service, rather than a viable alternative to the likes of XC. Shame really, but inevitable I think.

Or, Chiltern + Avanti will push to have it as a valid route, and get more ORCATS share of the North to Oxford.
Split fares may be the way to win, we'll find out eventually.

 

[Joey Beauchamp]

I do think 2-car services will be woefully inadequate pretty much from day one.

I suspect that there will be some negative manipulation of fares / routing permissions so that customers don't end up travelling from the North West/West Midlands to the Oxford area via Milton Keynes, and they will do their best to keep it primarily as a local branch service, rather than a viable alternative to the likes of XC. Shame really, but inevitable I think.

I'm assuming it will fall within the Network Railcard area which will make a difference for me if I'm travelling alone (or picking my son up from my parents' house).

From my side of Northampton it will definitely take longer though, due to the dwell time at Northampton versus the decent change onto the Crosscountry at Cov.

 

[A S Leib]

If it isn't going off-topic, and I can't remember whether or not there's already a post on it, I'd guess Milton Keynes to Oxford would be around £25 return based off of Redhill to Wokingham via Gomshall (~3 miles longer) being £28.10 for an anytime day return or £21.40 for an off-peak day return.

 

[Zomboid]

If it isn't going off-topic, and I can't remember whether or not there's already a post on it, I'd guess Milton Keynes to Oxford would be around £25 return based off of Redhill to Wokingham via Gomshall (~3 miles longer) being £28.10 for an anytime day return or £21.40 for an off-peak day return.

Well that's a good benchmark for when it's £45!

 

[Starmill]

Or, Chiltern + Avanti will push to have it as a valid route, and get more ORCATS share of the North to Oxford.
Split fares may be the way to win, we'll find out eventually.

Worth being aware that if a route is permitted or not isn't actually relevant to the standard allotment under the model. It's a 'dumb' model that was only specced out to determine accounting for sectors of BR, so obviously it will handle routed fares, but anything beyond that...

If Avanti wish to offer, say, Avanti West Coast & Chiltern only Advance tickets to and from Oxford, they are likely to be able to do so.

 

[Zomboid]

Unless it's specifically excluded as a permitted route, Oxford to Manchester via MK is likely come up on journey planners as an option as it's not overtaken.

Using today's paths as an example (assuming they're what end up in the passenger timetable) the 1511 Oxford to MK will connect into the 1624 MKC to Manchester arriving 1805. So that falls between the 1439 (arr 1729) and 1539 (arr 1829).

The connection at MK in that example is a bad one though because the 1540 from Oxford arrives MK at 1623 - if it were 5 minutes earlier then that would connect to the 1624 Manchester train and it would be the faster option for Stoke, Macclesfield, Stockport and Manchester.

And if, like for me, Oxford Parkway is the more convenient station, then going via MK could just be the fastest route depending on how connections at Oxford compare to MK.

 

[A S Leib]

It also looks like it would be a 20-25 minute connection into the northbound Trent Valley stopper at Milton Keynes Central.

 

[Zomboid]

Heading the other direction, the 1415 Avanti from Manchester has a 20 minute connection at MK into the 1616 to Oxford, arriving 1702 for a journey time of 2h47 Meanwhile the 1425 XC gets in at 1716, 2h50.

At least for Oxford journeys it's clearly a competitive option, and for OXP it's probably better.

 

[gordonthemoron]

I’ve used the X5 bus a fair few times this year, including during rush hour, it’s never been full, usually less than half full. And it’s always late

 

[Starmill]

The X5 still suffers from performance issues due to the state of Oxford (most days) and heavy Bicester Village traffic (especially bad on Saturdays and Bank Holiday weekends). There are a smaller number of other risks.

The X5 has improved since double decker buses are used, with some stops removed from the schedule at different times over the past decade. It's also only Oxford - Bedford these days sadly late into Oxford seems to mean late out of Oxford most of the time and it struggles to recover en route except at Bedford. It would be extremely frustrating to rely on for work, especially if you worked in Oxford city centre.

At least the train will avoid those risks, albeit it will still face its own (Sunday staffing and arguing about holding connections at MK for example).

 

[sqwizz]

Locomotive Services 1Z25 & 1Z26 tomorrow

Realtime Trains | 1Z25 0752 Crewe to London Marylebone | 19/07/2025

Real-time train running information for 1Z25 0752 departure from Crewe to London Marylebone on 19/07/2025. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

Realtime Trains | 1Z26 1749 London Marylebone to Crewe | 19/07/2025

Real-time train running information for 1Z26 1749 departure from London Marylebone to Crewe on 19/07/2025. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

 

[CyrusWuff]

Locomotive Services 1Z25 & 1Z26 tomorrow

Realtime Trains | 1Z25 0752 Crewe to London Marylebone | 19/07/2025

Real-time train running information for 1Z25 0752 departure from Crewe to London Marylebone on 19/07/2025. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

Realtime Trains | 1Z26 1749 London Marylebone to Crewe | 19/07/2025

Real-time train running information for 1Z26 1749 departure from London Marylebone to Crewe on 19/07/2025. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

That's the Mark Hare Memorial Train, being run in memory of one of Chiltern's Driver Managers who passed away in March this year.

 

[Julia]

I have to make the journey from time to time - the bus is just not viable. It doesn't stop in Oxford after leaving the city centre, so I'd have to spend half an hour going in just to come back out again (if it stopped at Peartree or Parkway then it would be considerably more useful to those of us who live to the north of the city), and then is subject to the whims of the A34 and runs through Bicester and Buckingham town centres.

And the temporary lights on the "old" A421 between Bicester and Finmere where HS2 crosses it, worsened by the complete closure of the "new" A421 (Finmere - A43) and everything being sent on long detours.