Cambridgeshire Bus Franchising?

[Magdalia]

It is absolutely clear mathematically that multiple counting is not being eliminated. To take my Heffers example, if multiple counting was being eliminated, then I would be counted once in Rose Crescent and once in Sidney Street in table 4, but only once overall in table 3. Aggregated over many examples, the table 3 total would be much lower than the table 4 total, by the amount of multiple counting that had been eliminated. The table 3 total is what can be got by adding up the footfalls at the 11 measuring locations in table 4.

The total number of visitors to Cambridge BID for the last 52 weeks is 55,872,216

Almost 56 million is a very big number. We can see how big it is by comparing it with the ORR station entries and exits data. There are only 5 stations with entries and exits bigger than 56 million: Liverpool Street, Paddington, Tottenham Court Road, Waterloo and Stratford. Many of us know what those figures mean for public transport routes to and from those stations, especially on the Elizabeth Line.

We can convert the 56 million to an average daily number of about 153k. That's almost the capacity of Wembley Stadium twice over. The report claims 238k visitors on Saturday 31 May, which is almost Wembley Stadium three times over. Many of us also know what the Metropolitan and Chiltern line trains are like to get 85k people in and out of Wembley on a matchday.

I wasn't in Cambridge on Saturday 31 May, but I was on Saturday 14 June, when I suspect that the BID figure will be in the same ball park as 31 May.

Having been at Liverpool Street many times recently, and Wembley Stadium a few times over the years, I'm confident that the visitors to Cambridge old city on 14 June were not anywhere near 238k, which is what would be required to get to the 56 million annual total. The Cambridge road network simply does not have the capacity to get that number of people in and out.

 

[gingerheid]

Whilst there are obviously other major traffic generators (such as Addenbrookes), the city centre will still be the single biggest traffic objective. Running the T4 to the hospital is less than ideal IMHO.

It should run to the city centre via Addenbrooke's (or vice versa).

The Tiger routes certainly didn’t require franchising in order to be tried. Every local authority has had the power to support services through competitive tendering since 1986. They could specify any route and timetable they wished to introduce to supplement the commercial network, even including the fares to be charged and tickets to be accepted.

The didn't, but they require franchising in order to succeed as they need viable practical multi-operator ticketing across both subsidised and commercial services.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Jun 2025 ==

In fact, I could quite cheekily suggest that if the T4 was to support the NHS workers and this extended working day, it might have been better to give the T4 an evening service and not the T7

The remarkable thing about the T4 is that it doesn't even cover visiting hours

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Jun 2025 ==

Cambridge is a booming economy which means that Stagecoach East have been able to run the Cambridge City services and the major village routes without financial support for many years. That includes the evening and weekend services.

The fact that Stagecoach couldn't any longer run a single service in a town the size of Newmarket, Bury St Edmunds or Royston (and soon Ely) said that there is something very broken in the old way of doing things, and that change is necessary!

 

[markymark2000]

The didn't, but they require franchising in order to succeed as they need viable practical multi-operator ticketing across both subsidised and commercial services.

Can be delivered under partnership. See Leicester Flexi, or one of the many other multi operator products that exists without franchising.

The fact that Stagecoach couldn't any longer run a single service in a town the size of Newmarket, Bury St Edmunds or Royston (and soon Ely) said that there is something very broken in the old way of doing things, and that change is necessary!

Pass reimbursement isn't great and every company has different costs and wants different amounts out of a route.

Change is needed, but a large chunk of that comes down to effective policies in place at combined authority/council level as without that, it doesn't matter who delivers the buses, they will not work.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

It is absolutely clear mathematically that multiple counting is not being eliminated. To take my Heffers example, if multiple counting was being eliminated, then I would be counted once in Rose Crescent and once in Sidney Street in table 4, but only once overall in table 3. Aggregated over many examples, the table 3 total would be much lower than the table 4 total, by the amount of multiple counting that had been eliminated. The table 3 total is what can be got by adding up the footfalls at the 11 measuring locations in table 4.



Almost 56 million is a very big number. We can see how big it is by comparing it with the ORR station entries and exits data. There are only 5 stations with entries and exits bigger than 56 million: Liverpool Street, Paddington, Tottenham Court Road, Waterloo and Stratford. Many of us know what those figures mean for public transport routes to and from those stations, especially on the Elizabeth Line.

We can convert the 56 million to an average daily number of about 153k. That's almost the capacity of Wembley Stadium twice over. The report claims 238k visitors on Saturday 31 May, which is almost Wembley Stadium three times over. Many of us also know what the Metropolitan and Chiltern line trains are like to get 85k people in and out of Wembley on a matchday.

I wasn't in Cambridge on Saturday 31 May, but I was on Saturday 14 June, when I suspect that the BID figure will be in the same ball park as 31 May.

Having been at Liverpool Street many times recently, and Wembley Stadium a few times over the years, I'm confident that the visitors to Cambridge old city on 14 June were not anywhere near 238k, which is what would be required to get to the 56 million annual total. The Cambridge road network simply does not have the capacity to get that number of people in and out.

Fair points. Let's flip it round the other way. For it to be less than the biomedical park, then as you say, each and every person would have to be being counted over 4 times. That seems unrealistic too - are we suggesting that businesses are reliant on data that is out by 400%? As a comparison with other London landmarks, it's saying that Cambridge gets as many hits as Westfield in Stratford. The "other place" uses another firm to obtain its footfall figures and that is via GPS triangulation. Still, as I say, we will wait for Cambridge South to open and assume it's place as the premier traffic gateway.

The remarkable thing about the T4 is that it doesn't even cover visiting hours

No but it does serve the 6th form college which is handy for 38 weeks of the year!

The didn't, but they require franchising in order to succeed as they need viable practical multi-operator ticketing across both subsidised and commercial services.

They don't though. There are plenty of multi-operator schemes. Leicester is one and it has capping too

There's also ones covering the old Avon area. However, marketing is non existent - First don't bother (as their marketing is rubbish anyway, but they traditionally tried to steer people to their own tickets and revenue retention?) and TravelWest are woeful. That's the main issue - the operators don't market very well but tend to nudge people to their own tickets though there is an argument that it may be the better option in some cases e.g. when talking about Leicestershire rather than Leicester, and the local authorities are crap at marketing.

The fact that Stagecoach couldn't any longer run a single service in a town the size of Newmarket, Bury St Edmunds or Royston (and soon Ely) said that there is something very broken in the old way of doing things, and that change is necessary!

Had Covid not happened (big if) then it probably wouldn't be the case with Newmarket and Royston - we'd probably still see Stagecoach running. As has been said earlier, Stagecoach had a massive staffing problem in 2022 (again for reasons that we know about - pause in recruitment, training and tests, early retirees after lockdown, EU employees not returning post Brexit) and, combined with the drop off in passenger numbers, it was a simple choice to cut those routes that were marginal at best and deploy scarce driver resources in the most advantageous places. Noteworthy that Stagecoach are now able to staff some of these new Tiger routes.

Stephensons obviously spotted an opportunity with the Newmarket route but no one fancies Royston? As for Ely service, the rail line probably mops up many potential passengers. There's obviously a decent market up to Waterbeach but north of there... not many chimney pots.

 

[Magdalia]

it's saying that Cambridge gets as many hits as Westfield in Stratford.

Westfield Stratford is an instructive comparison. It is a very big shopping mall, and Cambridge is a very small city centre. In terms of area they are not very different, especially once the footprint of the Cambridge Colleges is taken into account.

But Westfield Stratford is an indoor shopping mall: this makes it easy to record footfall just by counting the number of people going in and out, and multiple counting is trivial. It is very different from recording footfall at various locations in a street network.

Westfield Stratford also has one of the 5 busiest railway stations, and it is right outside. In contrast Cambridge station is more than a mile away with less than 20% of the traffic of Stratford.

I really am grateful to you for providing the link to the Cambridge BID footfall data. I have spent this morning typing the location analysis into a spreadsheet. The main revelation has been the importance of the students, many of whom live there, and get recorded as they move about. The seasonal pattern of the Silver Street data suggests that, in some but not all of the winter months, a lot of it is students walking between their colleges and the lecture theatres and the library in the West Road area. Kings Parade is interesting too: the peak month is July, for the graduation ceremonies, but there is also a big blip in October when the new students arrive for the first time, usually brought by their doting parents. They fill up the Grand Arcade car park before the Sunday shoppers arrive, then gawp at the Chapel.

Still, as I say, we will wait for Cambridge South to open and assume it's place as the premier traffic gateway.

Cambridge South won't overtake the main Cambridge station, for 2 reasons. One is that the old station will still be the prime station for outbound traffic from Cambridge, particularly to London, because Cambridge South does not have road access apart from for buses and taxis. Cambridge-Kings Cross is 2.8 million journeys, more of which will be Cambridge-London and back than London-Cambridge and back. Most of the Cambridge-London and back journeys won't be switching. The other is that the area around the old station is now a huge traffic generator in its own right, with Cambridge University Press and Assessment, big US tech companies, and corporate services like law and accountancy located there.

The remarkable thing about the T4 is that it doesn't even cover visiting hours

Most Addenbrookes inpatient wards are now back to very flexible visiting. I have a neighbour who visits twice a day every day, once in the morning and once in the afternoon.

 

[overthewater]

Had Covid not happened (big if) then it probably wouldn't be the case with Newmarket and Royston - we'd probably still see Stagecoach running. As has been said earlier, Stagecoach had a massive staffing problem in 2022 (again for reasons that we know about - pause in recruitment, training and tests, early retirees after lockdown, EU employees not returning post Brexit) and, combined with the drop off in passenger numbers, it was a simple choice to cut those routes that were marginal at best and deploy scarce driver resources in the most advantageous places. Noteworthy that Stagecoach are now able to staff some of these new Tiger routes.

Stephensons obviously spotted an opportunity with the Newmarket route but no one fancies Royston? As for Ely service, the rail line probably mops up many potential passengers. There's obviously a decent market up to Waterbeach but north of there... not many chimney pots.

I thought Stagecoach pulled off the Newmarket route because they never had enough drivers?

 

[Magdalia]

The fact that Stagecoach couldn't any longer run a single service in a town the size of Newmarket, Bury St Edmunds or Royston (and soon Ely) said that there is something very broken in the old way of doing things, and that change is necessary!

In all of these examples the bus struggles to compete with the train.

In the ORR station data for Cambridge, Ely is 2nd (502k one way journeys), Royston 5th (150k), Waterbeach 7th (92k) and Newmarket 8th (87k). Bury St Edmunds and Meldreth are 12th and 13th (both 67k).

In all cases the train service has improved in recent years, mainly relieving overcrowding by running longer trains. For Ely, Waterbeach and Royston that's been longer station platforms, for Newmarket it has been new rolling stock.

Where Stagecoach don't have train competition they provide good services, with at least 2tbh day and 1bph evening to all of Cambourne, Bar Hill, Sawston, Cottenham and Haverhill.

 

[Dwarfer1979]

The fact that Stagecoach couldn't any longer run a single service in a town the size of Newmarket, Bury St Edmunds or Royston (and soon Ely) said that there is something very broken in the old way of doing things, and that change is necessary!

To be fair Stagecoach (or their predecessors) were never the main operator for Bury St Edmunds (that was First from Eastern Counties) and whilst Royston is a little more complicated (as Premier were before Cambus bought them) that, like Bury St Edmunds, was really by at least 20 years ago just the terminus of an interurban service beyond the area of general service provision (& Royston to Cambridge has a very good rail link which will make the bus service very marginal). The size of the town is irrelevant to whether Stagecoach reach them from Cambridge out beyond their normal operating area.

Newmarket was given up due to massive driver shortages after COVID & Brexit, again at the edge of their operating area but in this case they were a major presence so is very different to Bury St Edmunds or Royston, but possibly chosen as slightly peripheral and because there were local businesses who may be able to step in (such as Stephensons who did so) without being strong enough to really threaten Stagecoach (such as Whippet might as by this point they were owned by a multi-national group, if not big in the UK, if they had done the same to the west of Cambridge). This withdrawal was a little surprising as the loadings did, and still do having been over this weekend, seem reasonably busy but if the choice is between damaging the thriving business in Cambridge City because you don't have enough drivers or giving up some good but not stellar work across the border into Suffolk then it may make more sense.

The fall at Ely is more damning of Stagecoach in recent years as that has always been much more central to the wider network but it isn't good bus territory, Ely isn't a big town and the countryside around it isn't densely populated, so it is a little difficult to keep it sustainable. In many ways you could say it is surprising it lasted this long but having lasted this long it is a shame Stagecoach were unable to build on whatever they were doing right in the past to keep it ticking along.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Westfield Stratford is an instructive comparison. It is a very big shopping mall, and Cambridge is a very small city centre. In terms of area they are not very different, especially once the footprint of the Cambridge Colleges is taken into account.

But Westfield Stratford is an indoor shopping mall: this makes it easy to record footfall just by counting the number of people going in and out, and multiple counting is trivial. It is very different from recording footfall at various locations in a street network.

Westfield Stratford also has one of the 5 busiest railway stations, and it is right outside. In contrast Cambridge station is more than a mile away with less than 20% of the traffic of Stratford.

Westfield Stratford has Stratford International - the clue's in the name! Whilst the recording of figures is easier in a closed environment, it isn't like they have bouncers with "clickers" on the doors and all major cities are using methodologies to capture footfall, visitor numbers etc that are based on various technologies like GPS triangulation married with some physical observation and a bit of extrapolation. No one seems to be questioning their rationale.

To be fair Stagecoach (or their predecessors) were never the main operator for Bury St Edmunds (that was First from Eastern Counties) and whilst Royston is a little more complicated (as Premier were before Cambus bought them) that, like Bury St Edmunds, was really by at least 20 years ago just the terminus of an interurban service beyond the area of general service provision (& Royston to Cambridge has a very good rail link which will make the bus service very marginal). The size of the town is irrelevant to whether Stagecoach reach them from Cambridge out beyond their normal operating area.

Newmarket was given up due to massive driver shortages after COVID & Brexit, again at the edge of their operating area but in this case they were a major presence so is very different to Bury St Edmunds or Royston, but possibly chosen as slightly peripheral and because there were local businesses who may be able to step in (such as Stephensons who did so) without being strong enough to really threaten Stagecoach (such as Whippet might as by this point they were owned by a multi-national group, if not big in the UK, if they had done the same to the west of Cambridge). This withdrawal was a little surprising as the loadings did, and still do having been over this weekend, seem reasonably busy but if the choice is between damaging the thriving business in Cambridge City because you don't have enough drivers or giving up some good but not stellar work across the border into Suffolk then it may make more sense.

The fall at Ely is more damning of Stagecoach in recent years as that has always been much more central to the wider network but it isn't good bus territory, Ely isn't a big town and the countryside around it isn't densely populated, so it is a little difficult to keep it sustainable. In many ways you could say it is surprising it lasted this long but having lasted this long it is a shame Stagecoach were unable to build on whatever they were doing right in the past to keep it ticking along.

Again, I can't fault your comments. First was the main operator in Bury, closing their depot c.2014/5 (?) when it ceased to be viable. Stagecoach were only ever a visitor. That they came out of Newmarket is a little surprising but as you say, it was a hard headed business decision to employ what resources they had when at the nadir of their recruitment and staffing issues.

Ely is an interesting one. The depot closed under Cambus, though an outstation/yard was maintained IIRC. Not certain when it got a depot again but it was always thin territory. Decent rail link and the time differential plays a part (and less so with Waterbeach to Cambridge). Clearly, extending one bus an hour past Waterbeach to Ely and Littleport just ain't worth it as there's precious few passengers between Waterbeach and Ely.

 

[Magdalia]

Westfield Stratford has Stratford International - the clue's in the name!

Westfield Stratford also has Stratford (London), the far busier station mainly served by Greater Anglia.

Whilst the recording of figures is easier in a closed environment, it isn't like they have bouncers with "clickers" on the doors and all major cities are using methodologies to capture footfall, visitor numbers etc that are based on various technologies like GPS triangulation married with some physical observation and a bit of extrapolation.

There is an intermediate technology, which is CCTV, and I suspect that CCTV is what is being used at both Stratford and Cambridge.

Stratford are likely to be using CCTV because it works very well in a closed environment, with cameras pointing at the entrances and exits. They will have little incentive to upgrade to a GPS system.

Cambridge are likely to be using CCTV too, because it is what they could afford. The implication from the reports is that they have CCTV cameras at 11 locations. Cambridge BID is funded from a levy on business rates plus a bit of grant and only has a budget of just over £1 million. It is also noteworthy that Cambridge BID seem to have been using the same source data since at least 2018. I doubt that the Cambridge BID budget stretched to a GPS footfall count way back in 2018.

No one seems to be questioning their rationale.

The Cambridge BID budget probably doesn't stretch to professional statistical advice either. Having now looked at every monthly report since the start of 2023, it looks to me just like someone feeding numbers into a template. I'm a professional, and I'm questioning it.

 

[gc4946]

Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority is a test case for urban/rural franchising. I live in West Yorkshire which is going down the franchising route and have used the Bee Network in Greater Manchester.
Reading these comments and looking at bus network maps I can see why the mayor(s) have gone for the Tiger concept. The county has spent money on busways and there are huge gaps in coverage of rural areas.
What's needed is one unified brand, with integrated ticketing with no interchange price penalty and guaranteed connections between services, particularly in the rural areas. It's time to think of the network as a whole, it'll need a high degree of patience from the combined authority and stakeholders to achieve this goal.
I'm trying to work out the best way to achieve these aims and think a lattice concept is the best way forward. Every adjacent town (or city) in the combined authority is guaranteed a minimum hourly service. There would be guaranteed timed hourly connections between services in one central place in every town. It seems Chatteris is one such location, but this'll need to be replicated across the county.
Some of the Tiger routes test these ideas. T12 connects Sutton to a busway park & ride, Longstanton for onward travel, T5 connects Soham to Cambridge.
The above could be implemented by tendering without going down the franchising route, but without an all-ages county multi-operator ticket would struggle to reach its potential.

 

[Dwarfer1979]

Ely is an interesting one. The depot closed under Cambus, though an outstation/yard was maintained IIRC. Not certain when it got a depot again but it was always thin territory. Decent rail link and the time differential plays a part (and less so with Waterbeach to Cambridge). Clearly, extending one bus an hour past Waterbeach to Ely and Littleport just ain't worth it as there's precious few passengers between Waterbeach and Ely.

I do think that sometimes we, as bus enthusiasts, like to look at bus services in their own self-contained little bubble and then criticise decisions without looking at what wider events may have impacted. I'm not sure what the rail timetable between Ely & Cambridge used to be in terms of frequency but I believe the quality of the trains & service has been improved over recent years which will have impacted on the demand for bus travel between the two (neither station is particularly convenient for their centres but the travel time difference is such that isn't as damaging to train competitiveness as some others) and there is so little settlement between the two that can be easily served that the route will be badly affected by such demand transfer between the two major points.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I do think that sometimes we, as bus enthusiasts, like to look at bus services in their own self-contained little bubble and then criticise decisions without looking at what wider events may have impacted. I'm not sure what the rail timetable between Ely & Cambridge used to be in terms of frequency but I believe the quality of the trains & service has been improved over recent years which will have impacted on the demand for bus travel between the two (neither station is particularly convenient for their centres but the travel time difference is such that isn't as damaging to train competitiveness as some others) and there is so little settlement between the two that can be easily served that the route will be badly affected by such demand transfer between the two major points.

I tend to agree with you.

Unlike bus enthusiasts, the general public tend to choose their mode on convenience/time, and then price. Convenience can mean frequency, journey time, and physical location as rail stations tend to be in peripheral locations to town/city centres so there is a convenience factor for buses on centre to centre. It is a nuanced blend of reasons and they can intertwine but generally, buses have a centre to centre benefit on time/convenience that degrades as you get further away as the speed of the train begins to outweigh the bus benefits.

Like you, I'm not sure how the Fen Line has improved. However, since the halcyon days of Stagecoach Express, Ely station has seen it's passenger figures (courtesy of RailStats) go from 646k (1999) to 2386k (2019) and even now, 2052k (2024). More importantly, 49% of journeys from Ely are to Cambridge (i.e. over 1m). If the choice is 50 mins on a bus, or 20 mins on the train and a short walk/taxi/bus/cycle, it's not surprising that buses have lost out.

Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority is a test case for urban/rural franchising. I live in West Yorkshire which is going down the franchising route and have used the Bee Network in Greater Manchester.
Reading these comments and looking at bus network maps I can see why the mayor(s) have gone for the Tiger concept. The county has spent money on busways and there are huge gaps in coverage of rural areas.
What's needed is one unified brand, with integrated ticketing with no interchange price penalty and guaranteed connections between services, particularly in the rural areas. It's time to think of the network as a whole, it'll need a high degree of patience from the combined authority and stakeholders to achieve this goal.
I'm trying to work out the best way to achieve these aims and think a lattice concept is the best way forward. Every adjacent town (or city) in the combined authority is guaranteed a minimum hourly service. There would be guaranteed timed hourly connections between services in one central place in every town. It seems Chatteris is one such location, but this'll need to be replicated across the county.
Some of the Tiger routes test these ideas. T12 connects Sutton to a busway park & ride, Longstanton for onward travel, T5 connects Soham to Cambridge.
The above could be implemented by tendering without going down the franchising route, but without an all-ages county multi-operator ticket would struggle to reach its potential.

You have been to Cambridgeshire? Especially in the Fenland areas, there is very low population density which is why there are these gaps in coverage. East Cambridgeshire has hardly anyone living in it - 135 people per km which is why the T7 is unlikely to ever be anything other than a drain on resources. Multiple hourly services?? I don't know how much the T7 is costing but £0.5m?

Imagine if that money was spent on generating more passengers in Peterborough - a place where the scope for bus priority is greater than Cambridge? Use the money to make Peterborough's city services more attractive in terms of journey times, reliability and provision?

No-one likes a multi-operator ticket more than me. Norfolk has a very good one, and perhaps that's where the CPCA should be taking their inspiration.

 

[bspahh]

Like you, I'm not sure how the Fen Line has improved. However, since the halcyon days of Stagecoach Express, Ely station has seen it's passenger figures (courtesy of RailStats) go from 646k (1999) to 2386k (2019) and even now, 2052k (2024). More importantly, 49% of journeys from Ely are to Cambridge (i.e. over 1m). If the choice is 50 mins on a bus, or 20 mins on the train and a short walk/taxi/bus/cycle, it's not surprising that buses have lost out.

There are three main changes to the trains between Ely and Cambridge in the last decade:

1. The Great Northern trains now all have 8 cars, so you have a decent chance of a seat, or at least comfortable standing room.

2. Cambridge North station opened. I work a mile from Cambridge North. Its over 3 miles to either Cambridge or Waterbeach stations. That is an hour to walk. It was fine by bicycle, but I couldn't rely on getting a full size bike on commuting trains.

3. Greater Anglia introduced some nice new trains and cheaper fares. These are for adults on a week day:

	Peak	Off Peak
Any Train	£9.00	£6.00
Greater Anglia	£7.00	£3.70
Bus	£4.00	£4.00

The bus would still be better for stops en route, but it is slow, and now infrequent. When I did try the Stagecoach 9 bus, it was noisy and rattly.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

There are three main changes to the trains between Ely and Cambridge in the last decade:

1. The Great Northern trains now all have 8 cars, so you have a decent chance of a seat, or at least comfortable standing room.

2. Cambridge North station opened. I work a mile from Cambridge North. Its over 3 miles to either Cambridge or Waterbeach stations. That is an hour to walk. It was fine by bicycle, but I couldn't rely on getting a full size bike on commuting trains.

3. Greater Anglia introduced some nice new trains and cheaper fares. These are for adults on a week day:

	Peak	Off Peak
Any Train	£9.00	£6.00
Greater Anglia	£7.00	£3.70
Bus	£4.00	£4.00

The bus would still be better for stops en route, but it is slow, and now infrequent. When I did try the Stagecoach 9 bus, it was noisy and rattly.

Thanks for that - I did think that Cambridge North may have made a significant impact. However, the other info is also very interesting. I was certainly impressed when travelling on the line a couple of years ago.

 

[Magdalia]

You have been to Cambridgeshire? Especially in the Fenland areas, there is very low population density which is why there are these gaps in coverage. East Cambridgeshire has hardly anyone living in it - 135 people per km

Overall the Fens is sparsely populated, but that's because a lot of it is effectively impossible to build on.

This means that the population is actually heavily concentrated in a few places, where it is practical to build.

Of East Cambridgeshire's 88k population, 19k are in Ely (22%), 11k in Soham (12%), 9k in Littleport (10%) and 6k in Burwell (7%). Over half of the population are in 4 settlements.

But Wisbech and Chatteris are both in Fenland which has 103k population, and here the population is even more skewed towards the towns,

Ignoring Cambridge and Peterborough, Wisbech is the 2nd biggest town in Cambridgeshire after St Neots, 27k people and 26% of the Fenland total. March is 21k (20%), Whittlesey 14k (14%) and Chatteris 11k (11%). More than 70% of the Fenland district population live in those 4 towns.

 

[Dwarfer1979]

Overall the Fens is sparsely populated, but that's because a lot of it is effectively impossible to build on.

This means that the population is actually heavily concentrated in a few places, where it is practical to build.

Of East Cambridgeshire's 88k population, 19k are in Ely (22%), 11k in Soham (12%), 9k in Littleport (10%) and 6k in Burwell (7%). Over half of the population are in 4 settlements.

But Wisbech and Chatteris are both in Fenland which has 103k population, and here the population is even more skewed towards the towns,

Ignoring Cambridge and Peterborough, Wisbech is the 2nd biggest town in Cambridgeshire after St Neots, 27k people and 26% of the Fenland total. March is 21k (20%), Whittlesey 14k (14%) and Chatteris 11k (11%). More than 70% of the Fenland district population live in those 4 towns.

Those towns may have a significant proportion of the population of the area but they are simply not big towns it is just very low population outside Cambridge and when you look at it they aren't unusual proportions for a rural authority (from a quick Google looking at Leicestershire which you would have thought was more spread out when travelling through half of the population of Melton Borough lives in Melton Mowbray itself - 27k of 51k - and a third of the population of Charnwood live in Loughborough - 64k of 188k. Harborough is closer to the Cambridgeshire councils with 24k in Market Harborough of a population of 97k).

From your figures even Wisbech is only the size of somewhere like Melton Mowbray, a town with only 1 decent frequency largely commercial service (a half-hourly service to Leicester) with the rest of the network relying on some form of council funding. Ely is only slightly bigger than Bourne, and I'm not sure anyone would describe that as anything but a small town, and only has the service level it has due to the density of the villages between it and Peterborough (particularly but not exclusively Market Deeping) which Ely doesn't have and it doesn't have the rail links to compete.

Outside Cambridge & Peterborough none of the towns in Cambridgeshire (or Huntingdonshire) are big enough to support significant commercial operation without some very specific circumstances (any of geographical proximity, employment or educational flows, demographics or history can mean a better service than simple numbers would suggest). Wisbech & St Neots alongside Huntingdon at over 20k are big enough to support a decent skeleton of commercial provision, as they do, but once you get below that level you may support a single commercial corridor but most work will either be low frequency around peak flows (like schools) or council funded. March should probably have a slightly better service but its remoteness from the major towns hampers the competitiveness with the car when heading to either Peterborough or Cambridge (it is OK to Wisbech but that isn't going to be a significantly higher draw than March itself for residents) whilst Whittlesey was historically better than you would expect due to its proximity to Peterborough meaning a decent level of service could be provided for low resource but that service level has declined a bit.

 

[greenline712]

I've been following this debate with interest . . . I'm almost old enough to understand the "Rural Bus Question" as asked by Professor Doug Jack in 1960. Briefly, this asked how the decline in bus passengers in rural areas could be slowed or even stopped. No firm answer was ever forthcoming, other that reducing service levels begats reducing passenger numbers, and accordingly, efforts should be made to provide more buses.

Despite several efforts over the intervening years, through the financial support of service levels in the 1970s and MAP in the 1980s, to Rural Bus Grant in the early 2000's, and the Local Sustainable Transport Fund in the early 2010's and BSIP in the early 2020's . . . service levels and passenger numbers have continued to fall, probably now to the lowest ever. Indeed, I'd actually submit that the Rural Bus Question has now been answered, and that the answer is, in general, no . . . the rural bus is no longer required.

I live in SW Herts, where bus provision and usage, in a pretty built up area, is declining more and more rapidly. Current populations are: Watford & Three Rivers: around 200k; St Albans: around 95k; Dacorum (including Berkhamsted): around 155k (all 2024 estimates) . . . so a total of around 450k. I'd submit that this area deserves real investment in service levels (almost all routes run at 2 BPH or less . . . including town routes in Hemel Hempstead, a former New Town which should be (and was) excellent bus territory), as traffic levels are now so high that air quality is suffering, and buses are simply unable to make progress . . . on some routes the peak running time is 50% higher than off-peak time, especially in school peaks.

Herts CC have decided to spend their BSIP money on improving inter-urban services . . . it's a laudable objective, and I kind of see where they're at, but I'm yet to be convinced that it's the best route (pun intended!). Personally, I'd have majored on enhancing town services, on the basis that home to town is where the best chance of reducing traffic is . . . and maybe going after the inter-urban market later. Still . . . we'll have to see; we're only about 12-18 months in yet.

Compare that with the investments being made in rural Cambridgeshire . . . a population of less than half of my area . . . even if good use is made of the new services (unlikely, but we'll have to see), significant reductions in traffic or improvements in air quality won't happen. I'm not saying that some improvements aren't welcome, but, just to look at one corridor, that between Burwell and Fulbourn/Fen Ditton . . . an increase from 1 BPH (supported) to 2 BPH (still supported) . . . why? Will the new possibilities from Addenbrokes and Soham make enough difference to counter what one assumes is a doubling in subsidy? Again, unlikely, IMV.

It would be far more sensible, in terms of minimising financial support and potentially ensuring that services continue into the future, to have a core route Newmarket - Burwell - Lode - Cambridge, with connecting services to Soham and Addenbrookes. Such connecting services to arrive at the "nodes" 5 minutes before the through bus, and that ALL buses will ALWAYS wait for connecting buses . . . after all, we now have accurate bus tracking, so there's no excuse not to wait. Indeed, I would submit that, if this was Cambridgeshire money, and not a grant from Whitehall via BSIP, the T5 and T12 would not have happened, and neither would the T7 !!

My answer? Massively beef up Park and Ride services . . . no need for fancy infrastructure, but always have a bus waiting at the car park, and also at the stop in Cambridge. Provide really fancy buses, with USB ports and plenty of leg room and tables. Make the P&R parking free to residents of the County, and charge something daft like £1 return for all passengers. At the same time, double car park charges to really provide a dis-incentive to drive into Cambridge.

The Rural Bus Question is answered . . . don't keep trying to find a more palatable answer . . . there ain't one!!

 

[johncrossley]

At the same time, double car park charges to really provide a dis-incentive to drive into Cambridge.

Public car parks are already scarily expensive. For example, Grafton East car park:

Grafton East car park

Grafton East car park is located at the Grafton shopping centre, about a 15-minute walk from the city centre. It’s the nearest car park to the Crown Court and Anglia Ruskin University.

www.cambridge.gov.uk

Weekday daytime tariff​

The weekday tariff applies:

• 8am to 6pm Monday to Friday

Weekday daytime tariff

Tariff	Up to 1 hour	Up to 2 hours	Up to 3 hours	Up to 4 hours	Up to 5 hours	Over 5 hours
Monday to Friday daytime	£3	£6	£9	£14	£23	£30

Weekend daytime tariff​

The weekend tariff applies:

• 8 to 6pm on Saturdays
• 10am to 6pm on Sundays

Weekend daytime tariff

Tariff	Up to 1 hour	Up to 2 hours	Up to 3 hours	Up to 4 hours	Up to 5 hours	Over 5 hours
Saturday to Sunday daytime	£3.90	£7.80	£11.70	£16.60	£26	£33

Therefore the issue must be private parking, including workplace parking. So a workplace parking levy might be a good idea.

 

[RT4038]

It would be far more sensible, in terms of minimising financial support and potentially ensuring that services continue into the future, to have a core route Newmarket - Burwell - Lode - Cambridge, with connecting services to Soham and Addenbrookes. Such connecting services to arrive at the "nodes" 5 minutes before the through bus, and that ALL buses will ALWAYS wait for connecting buses . . . after all, we now have accurate bus tracking, so there's no excuse not to wait.

Well there is - if one of the 'connections' is still 25 minutes away, and if all the buses wait that will surely have an ever worsening effect over all the nodes. If this problem has occurred at 9am, it won't take long before all the timetables to have collapsed across Cambridgeshire.

 

[greenline712]

Well there is - if one of the 'connections' is still 25 minutes away, and if all the buses wait that will surely have an ever worsening effect over all the nodes. If this problem has occurred at 9am, it won't take long before all the timetables to have collapsed across Cambridgeshire.

And how often might that happen? If regularly, then action should be taken. If rarely, then investigate and take action. The principle is sound, and in rural areas more likely to succeed than in urban areas. It is always possible to schedule to account for "normal" delays . . . indeed, such a plan should always do so.

 

[Magdalia]

Massively beef up Park and Ride services . . . no need for fancy infrastructure, but always have a bus waiting at the car park, and also at the stop in Cambridge. Provide really fancy buses, with USB ports and plenty of leg room and tables. Make the P&R parking free to residents of the County, and charge something daft like £1 return for all passengers.

I'm intrigued as to what you think can still be done on Cambridge Park and Ride.

The 5 sites in aggregate have 5653 spaces.
If the buses are running to time then there is always a bus waiting.
Frequency is every 10 minutes except for Babraham every 12 minutes.
The buses are modern electric vehicles with air chill, USB and decent leg room.
Parking is free up to 18 hours.

The fare is £4 return for a single person but there are group tickets at £9 for 3 people and £13 for 5 people.

Babraham is only every 12 minutes because the schedules had to be extended to take account congestion. And that still isn't enough.

Take yesterday afternoon's 1600 Drummer Street-Babraham P+R service: a journey scheduled to take 22 minutes took 54 minutes, including 39 minutes to travel from Hills Road VIth Form College to Addenbrookes.

Such connecting services to arrive at the "nodes" 5 minutes before the through bus, and that ALL buses will ALWAYS wait for connecting buses . . . after all, we now have accurate bus tracking, so there's no excuse not to wait.

In Cambridge this is just fantasy, because of congestion. Hills Road VIth Form College to Addenbrookes is supposed to take 5 minutes.

 

[RT4038]

And how often might that happen? If regularly, then action should be taken. If rarely, then investigate and take action. The principle is sound, and in rural areas more likely to succeed than in urban areas. It is always possible to schedule to account for "normal" delays . . . indeed, such a plan should always do so.

Judging by my experience in my county of residence , every day by 9am there would be at least several......

 

[johncrossley]

Obviously timed connections on rural/inter-urban services are common outside the UK. A lot of the time they have lengthy dwell time at one or both of the ends (in order to ensure that buses meet at the same time) so that means that a fair amount of delay can be accommodated.

 

[higthomas]

Take yesterday afternoon's 1600 Drummer Street-Babraham P+R service: a journey scheduled to take 22 minutes took 54 minutes, including 39 minutes to travel from Hills Road VIth Form College to Addenbrookes.

In Cambridge this is just fantasy, because of congestion. Hills Road VIth Form College to Addenbrookes is supposed to take 5 minutes.

Sadly I think the only permanent solution to buses in the Cambridge vicinity is to fix congestion, and that means getting rid of cars. There just won't ever be money to provide enough carrots forevermore to persuade people out of them, so it's got to be sticky.

Whatever it looks like, WPL, STZ, whatever it's the only solution. Do that and the buses will get much better essentially "for free" once they're the best option.

But sadly our politicians have been scared off that for a generation due to the STZ debacle, which sadly had the right idea but not a great implementation. So instead we'll piss money up the wall for a bit, until like all the times this has happened before, it runs out.

 

[Magdalia]

Therefore the issue must be private parking, including workplace parking. So a workplace parking levy might be a good idea.

You have not eliminated other causes, which in Cambridge are more important.

The first us the school run, Cambridge traffic always runs more freely in the school holidays than term time. That's why it is particularly important to provide good buses for students who are old enough to travel without a parent.

The second is road works. Cambridge is almost entirely single carriageway and every set of temporary traffic lights reduces capacity, increasing congestion.

The third is the weather, and this makes congestion very erratic from day to day, making it difficult to set schedules for buses. Cambridge traffic is always worse when it rains because fewer people cycle when it is raining.

 

[greenline712]

Take yesterday afternoon's 1600 Drummer Street-Babraham P+R service: a journey scheduled to take 22 minutes took 54 minutes, including 39 minutes to travel from Hills Road VIth Form College to Addenbrookes.

Why? What happened? If there seemed to be nothing untoward . . . then there's no hope! If it's general traffic, and applies every day, then why isn't it scheduled that way?

In Cambridge this is just fantasy, because of congestion. Hills Road VIth Form College to Addenbrookes is supposed to take 5 minutes.

I obviously wasn't clear enough . . . the nodes would be in places like Burwell, so the main bus and any connecting buses would meet and exchange passengers.
I certainly wouldn't recommend excessively tight connections . . . achievable would be the watchword.

Judging by my experience in my county of residence , every day by 9am there would be at least several......

And in mine!! The point is that connecting buses would be timed to take account of "normal" traffic congestion . . . if a journey is expected to take 15 minutes, but 25 minutes in the peak, then that's what is scheduled. Believe it or not . . . that's not a difficult job . . . schedulers do it every day (if they're allowed to), and generally get it about right.

Obviously timed connections on rural/inter-urban services are common outside the UK. A lot of the time they have lengthy dwell time at one or both of the ends (in order to ensure that buses meet at the same time) so that means that a fair amount of delay can be accommodated.

Exactly!! In fact, that's what is being attempted in Chatteris, isn't it? Not as obvious on Saturdays, but there are hourly weekday services from Ely, from March, from Huntingdon and from Wisbech via Manea . . . all connecting around xx30.

The overall concept is to improve connections without excessive cost, and sustainably as well. It's not going to be easy, but the current attempt in Cambridgeshire is unlikely to succeed . . . there just aren't the passengers there to make it work. Sorry . . . but that's the way it is. In two years, we'll see the rural network shrink to (hopefully) what it is now. It's like DRT . . . maybe we have to go round the route anyway, to get to the answer

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Jun 2025 ==

You have not eliminated other causes, which in Cambridge are more important.

The first us the school run, Cambridge traffic always runs more freely in the school holidays than term time. That's why it is particularly important to provide good buses for students who are old enough to travel without a parent.

The second is road works. Cambridge is almost entirely single carriageway and every set of temporary traffic lights reduces capacity, increasing congestion.

The third is the weather, and this makes congestion very erratic from day to day, making it difficult to set schedules for buses. Cambridge traffic is always worse when it rains because fewer people cycle when it is raining.

So what is your solution? Something that will (a) force parents to send their child to school on the bus, but at a reasonable cost; (b) prevent road works causing congestion; (c) weather . . . good luck with that one! You are searching for the Holy Grail !

 

[johncrossley]

Luckily Cambridge has particularly dry weather. Cambridge's climate is even classed as 'semi-arid' so combined with the flat terrain it should be even easier to encourage cycling than in the Netherlands. In the Netherlands almost all school kids cycle to school. Do we know what proportion of traffic in Cambridge is short distance (say under 2 miles?)

 

[Magdalia]

Do we know what proportion of traffic in Cambridge is short distance (say under 2 miles?)

This is a question where census data would provide an answer. But the 2021 census was conducted in the pandemic so didn't provide anything useful.

Luckily Cambridge has particularly dry weather.

Some of the time! We have had very little rain since March, but there was lot last winter.

with the flat terrain it should be even easier to encourage cycling than in the Netherlands.

Provision for cycling in Cambridge is very patchy. We have quite a lot of good cycle parking provision:

Cambridge station 2850
Cambridge North station 1000
Cambridge South station 1000
Grand Arcade 500
Park Street 250
lots of on street parking
finding some data on cycle parking on the Biomedical Campus is on my to do list!

There has always been a good cycling route from the north into the old city along the river. The north end of the busway links into this, as does the route from Milton with its separate bridge over the A14.

From the south there are two good routes via the south end of the busway to the old railway station, one on the A10, including a separate bridge over the M11, the other is the DNA path next to the railway from Shelford to the Biomedical Campus.

But bits are still very dodgy, especially where cyclists have to share space with road traffic. There is currently work going on at the big roundabout in Hills Road at the hospital, hopefully to make it safer for cyclists.

if a journey is expected to take 15 minutes, but 25 minutes in the peak, then that's what is scheduled. Believe it or not . . . that's not a difficult job . . . schedulers do it every day (if they're allowed to), and generally get it about right.

Stagecoach do try to do this in Cambridge, if you want to look at a good example see the timetable for route 7 to Sawston and Saffron Walden in the evening peak. But the congestion is erratic, sometimes the buses are waiting time for 10 minutes at Addenbrookes, other times they are running very late even on the extended schedules. When the journey is expected to take 15 minutes when the roads are clear, but anything between 15 minutes and 45 minutes when they are congested, what can they do?

 

[johncrossley]

Provision for cycling in Cambridge is very patchy

From what I've seen when visiting and taking my bike for a ride on what passes for 'infrastructure', it is clear that there is significant untapped potential here. Cambridge has a good reputation for cycling, but it is probably people who cycle 'despite' the infrastructure rather than 'because' of it. So it seems pretty obvious to me that cycling should be the priority for investment.