Cambridgeshire Bus Franchising?

[higthomas]

The Cambridgeshire and Peterborough combined authority look like they're trying to start down the bus franchising road. I'd imagine it'll end up in favour, but I wonder whether they'll be successful?

Press release on Consultation launch

Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority (CPCA) has announced the launch date for its formal bus franchising consultation.

From Wednesday 14th August, everyone is being invited to have their say on the potential pathways for improving bus services for local communities.

The franchising consultation will take place online and in person (via a series of drop-in events) over 14 weeks and will run until Wednesday 20th November 2024. It will inform a decision by the Mayor of Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, Dr Nik Johnson, on how to reform buses across the area.

Members of the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority (CPCA) Board met on 24th July where they discussed a report about bus reform. Following the discussion, they approved the Bus Reform Assessment (also known as the Business Case) and agreed to hold a formal franchising consultation which will enable residents, businesses, stakeholders and statutory consultees to share their views.

Chief Executive of the Combined Authority, Rob Bridge, said: “Your views matter. Whether you rely on the bus now for education, employment or leisure, or you think the bus might benefit you in the future, we really want to hear your thoughts. Now is the time for Cambridgeshire and Peterborough to review how its buses are operated, to improve services for all.”

The consultation will compare a franchising solution with an Enhanced Partnership approach. Under a franchised network, the Combined Authority would contract bus operators to run services on its behalf but have control over the routes, frequency, fares and overall standards of the region’s buses. An alternative Enhanced Partnership solution, while producing benefits over the current bus service, provides less control over the routes, frequency and overall delivery of the services.

 

[YorkRailFan]

Interesting, I didn't expect Cambridgeshire and Peterborough to look into franchising so soon, I was expecting places like the West Midlands to do so first, given the ruralness of Cambridgeshire & Peterborough.

I've heard a lot of people complain about bus services in Peterborough in the past so hopefully franchising (if implemented) can fix this.

 

[Magdalia]

A bit of background.

Bus franchising has been on the agenda of the Cambridge and Peterborough Combined Authority (CPCA) since 2022. The recently announced consultation is no surprise to locals.

There are huge challenges with bus services in and around Cambridge, which has a fast growing economy but inadequate transport infrastructure. Traffic congestion and driver shortages are the key short term issues.

Stagecoach are the main local operator and they implemented severe service cutbacks in autumn 2022. CPCA stepped in to fund some services and raise Council Tax for this.

The revenue raised from the now withdrawn Cambridge Sustainable Travel Zone (STZ) was supposed to pay for bus franchising.

Cambridge already has the guided busway to St Ives and Trumpington, and there are controversial proposals to build new unguided busways to Cambourne and towards Haverhill. Franchising is seen as a way of ensuring that any expensive new busway infrastructure actually gets used.

 

[SLC001]

As an outsider, I would make several points. I think the council themselves have to accept responsibility for poor bus services. There is a policy of build first, then provide essential facilities such as transport, education, medical practices etc.
Secondly, there is too much focus on prestigious and expensive projects when there needs to be more focus on local services and helping them to keep to time. Busways and tram lines are expensive and only serve a few who live close to them. As part of an overall strategy for the future, they have their role but the immediate need is different.
However, my main concern is that I do not like the idea of politicians and their egos running public transport. There have been too many examples of expensive failures whereby politicians think we should do one thing and the public going against it, voting with their feet, so to speak(write). Nevertheless, the current situation is unacceptable.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Cambridge already has the guided busway to St Ives and Trumpington, and there are controversial proposals to build new unguided busways to Cambourne and towards Haverhill. Franchising is seen as a way of ensuring that any expensive new busway infrastructure actually gets used.

I can't see why it wouldn't be used. Congestion costs bus companies heavily, so any infrastructure that avoids congestion is going to be popular with operators by reducing the number of buses needed for a given frequency.

 

[Magdalia]

I can't see why it wouldn't be used. Congestion costs bus companies heavily, so any infrastructure that avoids congestion is going to be popular with operators by reducing the number of buses needed for a given frequency.

It isn't a question of whether new busways would be used. It is a question of whether the use is sufficient to justify the expenditure on new infrastructure.

The guided busway has never been used to the extent that was promised when it was built.

New busways on their own will do little to relieve congestion within Cambridge, because they end when they reach the edge of the City.

 

[overthewater]

Seems like a complete waste of time, because will the council keep wasting money on more and more buses and drivers to keep 10min freq instead of dealing with the traffic?

 

[greenline712]

The Busway not used? Just prior to Covid, the peak hour frequency was 18 BPH !!
There were also several peak extensions into the rural hinterland, some of which also ran a few off-peak trips.
Stagecoach wouldn't have ordered the tri-axles if passenger numbers were low.
To make good use of BSIP money, why not reinstate these peak/off-peak extensions; link the Huntingdon<>Peterborough service back with the busway services; and "controversially" make the busway decker-friendly throughout.

The infrastructure is there ... actually use it !!

 

[Magdalia]

The Busway not used? Just prior to Covid, the peak hour frequency was 18 BPH !!

Less frequent than many railways. It is very expensive infrastructure for 18bph. The guided sections could manage more than twice that level and still not be congested.

There were also several peak extensions into the rural hinterland, some of which also ran a few off-peak trips.

Stagecoach wouldn't have ordered the tri-axles if passenger numbers were low.

It is driver numbers that are low. For an operation out to make profit with insufficient drivers that leads to big vehicles concentrated on core routes.

"controversially" make the busway decker-friendly throughout.

That requires complete rebuilding of 4 bridges, all of them on congested roads.

One of the tri-axles was decapitated at Hills Road when only a few weeks old.

The infrastructure is there ... actually use it !!

Franchising could direct that.

 

[greenline712]

Erm ... 18 BPH less frequent than many railways?? For a two-track railway, 18 TPH would be fantastic ... the Oxford Road corridor in Manchester can only get above 12 TPH with a struggle !!

I presume the Busway is still owned by the LTA? They could use BSIP money to enhance the frequency and reinstate the extensions .... this would actually be a good use of the money .... and might not need franchising??

 

[Magdalia]

18 BPH less frequent than many railways?? For a two-track railway, 18 TPH would be fantastic .

The Elizabeth Line and the Thameslink core do 18tph. Many London Underground lines do much more than 18tph. The ECML put 16tph through the 2 track section at Welwyn in the peak. Buses can run at much closer headways than trains. 18bph on a busway is not a great achievement.

 

[Leedsbusman]

The Elizabeth Line and the Thameslink core do 18tph. Many London Underground lines do much more than 18tph. The ECML put 16tph through the 2 track section at Welwyn in the peak. Buses can run at much closer headways than trains. 18bph on a busway is not a great achievement.

Central London is hardly comparable with rural Cambridgeshire!

 

[Mollman]

The Elizabeth Line and the Thameslink core do 18tph. Many London Underground lines do much more than 18tph. The ECML put 16tph through the 2 track section at Welwyn in the peak. Buses can run at much closer headways than trains. 18bph on a busway is not a great achievement.

Yes but you don't have Intercity services to Scotland on the bus way. The better comparison is an branch of the Manchester Metrolink, you tend to get 5 to 10 trams and hour even though they can run via line of sight.

Once the large areas of new houses are all built you might see an uplift in frequency but it still has to match demand or else you will get the "why are all these buses running around empty" brigade out.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

The Elizabeth Line and the Thameslink core do 18tph. Many London Underground lines do much more than 18tph. The ECML put 16tph through the 2 track section at Welwyn in the peak. Buses can run at much closer headways than trains. 18bph on a busway is not a great achievement.

Perhaps a more appropriate comparison might be the Bathgate line that was 2 tph IIRC, and then when extended via Airdrie with associated works went to 4 tph.

The reality is that had the alignment been used for rail to St Ives, you'd have been likely looking at 2 tph.

 

[Magdalia]

Central London is hardly comparable with rural Cambridgeshire!

Rural areas don't get busways. The Cambridge guided busway is supposed to be inter-urban linking St Ives, Huntingdon, and nearby villages with Cambridge. It is just as much about commuting as the railways that I compared it with.

The point I'm making is that it is a very expensive piece of infrastructure which is not being used anywhere near capacity. All the time that Cambridge combines underused busway capacity with road traffic congestion the busway can't be said to be delivering. The test is whether it delivers for Cambridge, not how it compares with elsewhere.

The busway could easily operate at 30bph, and that might have an impact on congestion. Franchising could be a way of trying that out. What I'm interested in is what else would need to be done so that the result isn't more congestion in Cambridge because it is full of empty buses.

On the other hand, I suspect that franchising will end up being more about the genuinely rural social need services than what's needed for a growing economy.

 

[greenline712]

I wonder how a cost per mile compares between (say) the Busway and a similar new line (say) the Levenmouth branch.
I know it's a bit "apples and pears", but both are on existing alignments and of similar lengths.
It might give an indication of cost/benefit, which could be interesting in this debate.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I wonder how a cost per mile compares between (say) the Busway and a similar new line (say) the Levenmouth branch.
I know it's a bit "apples and pears", but both are on existing alignments and of similar lengths.
It might give an indication of cost/benefit, which could be interesting in this debate.

Levenmouth was £11.6m per mile. Obviously, that was on a line that had been mothballed for 9 years so not from scratch. Borders Rail was a more extensive rebuild albeit nine years earlier and was £10m per mile. Both are based upon 2 tph

Cambridgeshire Busway was intriguing about £117m (if you take the cost that BAM Nuttall say they incurred, and leaving aside the legal costs of the court case) so £7.3m as a comparison with Borders Rail. That said, in 2018, Borders Rail had 1.7m passengers whilst the Busway had 4.2m.

Interestingly, there is the CA's own report https://cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk/roads-transport-and-active-travel/transport-data-insights/ and it's full of interesting nuggets. One such is the ridership of Stagecoach's depots; I'm unsure of the methodology but would suggest that they work on like for like route comparisons? It appears that bus ridership is down at their Cambridge depot by 5% between 2019 and 2024 (rebounding after the introduction of the £2 fare but actually -14% when P&R routes are excluded). Peterborough depot is down by -22% which is quite the figure whilst Fenstanton is actually +12%. In that respect, the Busway and the Park and Ride services are bucking the trend.

 

[greenline712]

Thanks to @TheGrandWazoo for all that legwork . . . I would not have found the CambridgeshireInsight data by myself !!

Interpreting statistics is always dodgy, but if I read them right . . . the Busway was £7.3m/mile to construct, compared with £10m/mile for the Borders line. Pre-Covid, the Busway was carrying something more than double the Borders line in passengers. That says to me that the Busway was (and probably still is) better value for money. Obviously we need to ascertain the current passenger levels, but . . .

What is more interesting is the statistics about Stagecoach's ridership. I can sort of get the reduction in Cambridge ridership, when the increase in P&R numbers is taken into account . . . +25% on P&R ridership; -14% on Cambridge ridership (excluding P&R) . . . that's modal shift for you. Do Fenstanton work on non-Busway routes? If not, then that does imply Busway numbers are up.

Quite why Peterborough is down 22% I'm not sure, although Stagecoach slashed their rural network post-Covid, and are only just rebuilding that network now.

I'd recommend studying the report quoted . . . there are some interesting trends shown therein.

 

[ac6000cw]

In that respect, the Busway and the Park and Ride services are bucking the trend.

I'm not surprised - the P&R system has been popular ever since the current car parks were built, I think it's the combination of frequent services, free parking, limited stops and (most recently) much-nicer-to-ride-on electric buses.

As an example, the village I live in has a diesel bus every 24 minutes into Cambridge, but it's all stops and via a dog-leg route so very slow. So often I drive about 3 miles to the nearest P & R car park to use the every 10 minutes, limited-stop, direct electric buses into town instead - it's usually faster overall and a more pleasant journey (3 miles/10 min by car then 3.5 miles/25 min by electric bus, versus 7.5 miles taking 50 tedious minutes on a much less frequent diesel bus). So for me, the P & R bus usually gets the 'ridership' instead of the ordinary bus.

 

[Magdalia]

It appears that bus ridership is down at their Cambridge depot by 5% between 2019 and 2024 (rebounding after the introduction of the £2 fare but actually -14% when P&R routes are excluded).

The autumn 2022 service cuts will have contributed to this, with Stagecoach completely withdrawing from various routes.

Fenstanton is actually +12%.

Given the amount of employment expansion on the Biomedical Campus in the same period, that still might be a fall in market share.

 

[TheDavibob]

Care required for the P&R numbers I think - I believe they've picked up more residential stops on their way into town since at least pre-pandemic, so excluding them from "Cambridge" figures is mildly misleading (though I'm not certain I'm not speaking rubbish).

 

[Deerfold]

As an example, the village I live in has a diesel bus every 24 minutes into Cambridge, but it's all stops and via a dog-leg route so very slow. So often I drive about 3 miles to the nearest P & R car park to use the every 10 minutes, limited-stop, direct electric buses into town instead - it's usually faster overall and a more pleasant journey (3 miles/10 min by car then 3.5 miles/25 min by electric bus, versus 7.5 miles taking 50 tedious minutes on a much less frequent diesel bus). So for me, the P & R bus usually gets the 'ridership' instead of the ordinary bus.

Personally, I'd prefer a bus every 30 minutes to every 24, so I might be able to remember when it runs.

 

[Magdalia]

Care required for the P&R numbers I think - I believe they've picked up more residential stops on their way into town since at least pre-pandemic, so excluding them from "Cambridge" figures is mildly misleading (though I'm not certain I'm not speaking rubbish).

Milton Park and Ride is the main complicating factor. It is now served by 2 routes. The main P+R route now has half the service also serving Landbeach and Waterbeach. Route 2 also serves Milton P+R, runs through to Addenbrookes via Mill Road, and uses the P+R electric vehicles. The increase could be partly down to services that have been "reclassified" from non-P+R to P+R.

It is still the case that the main P+R routes are limited stop, except on weekday evenings. But a few more stops have been added, 2 I can think of are Hills Road College and Ditton Walk. There is now a special matchday ticket from Newmarket Road P+R to Ditton Walk when Cambridge United are playing at home, but I don't know how much it is used.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

The autumn 2022 service cuts will have contributed to this, with Stagecoach completely withdrawing from various routes.

Given the amount of employment expansion on the Biomedical Campus in the same period, that still might be a fall in market share.

Which is why I said that the methodology would need to be understood and can only be gauged on like for like comparison.

However, let's say that your contention is the case.... Then that makes the Fenstanton depot figures more impressive. That depot surrendered the Huntingdon to St Neots route, the route between St Ives and March, Huntingdon to Chatteris (ok - the last two won't have contributed too many passengers).

If in the round (and assuming that the P&R figures are distorted in some manner) the Cambridge depot figures are 5% down, and that IS after service cuts, it's a pretty good performance on the remaining network.

 

[markymark2000]

They could use BSIP money to enhance the frequency and reinstate the extensions .... this would actually be a good use of the money??

They are using the Mayoral Precept to put an extra bus per hour onto the busway. A new Huntingdon to Cambridge service via Fenstanton, up through Swavesey then join the guided busway to Milton Road, right into Cambridge and terminate at Drummer Street.

Some of the other routes planned using the mayoral precept just go to show why the authority shouldn't be given any more control over buses.
They plan to have a new Wisbech to Chatteris service which completely duplicates the Norfolk Council tendered route 60. They want these routes to start ASAP yet Norfolk Council has literally just reawarded their tendered service and so now Wisbech to Three Holes are going to have buses following eachother. The service also doesn't seem to be replacing the Norfolk tender as it doesn't include the school extension to Marshland High and the first bus gets into Wisbech at 8.50am (60 gets in at 06:50am).
The new Cambridge North Orbital service which links Newmarket Road, Milton and Madingley Road Park and Rides. It serves Fen Ditton and Impington but that's about it. Linking Park and Rides to the suburbs. What? surely no one thinks this is a good idea? You link Park and Rides to the main city centres. Unless someone is into Park and Ride bus hopping, this seems like a dead duck before it's even started.
Cambridge South Orbital just duplicates over pre existing links. There are very few new links provided by the service, certainly ones which people would use in any meaningful way.
New Newmarket to Addenbrookes service duplicates a lot over the 11.

Sources are recently issues tender documents, not sure about sharing them all on here though I can if required. The basic information for the routes, including maps, are available on the Combined Authorities 'Better Buses' page, the tender documents give timetables and hence the comments on the Wisbesh - Chatteris bus.

Source for the above are recently issued tender documents for a few of the new routes. Some details are on the Combined Authorities website though:
Huntington to Cambridge service & Cambridge Orbital services: https://cambridgeshirepeterborough-ca.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/1-Cambridge-City.pdf. Ref 1 and Ref 2
Wisbech to Chatteris service: https://cambridgeshirepeterborough-ca.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/3-Fenland-.pdf Ref 13
Newmarket to Addenbrookes service: https://cambridgeshirepeterborough-...s/East-Cambridgeshire-Finalised-V3-280524.pdf Ref 8/9.


Bearing in mind, this is the same combined authority who thinks it's ok to subsidise a bus to the tune of £125 per passenger journey (Relevant parts quoted in another thread, link here). And the same combined authority who can't comply with their legal duties to maintain NAPTAN (the bus stop database) meaning the coordinates of many bus stops are way off where they should actually be, this affects the accuracy of next stop displays/announcements and journey plans. If they can't do things now that are a legal requirement, why should they be trusted to take on the full bus network. It will be a right mess. Just look at the Huntingdonshire tenders. You'd have less of a mess if you gave a kid some spaghetti and a map.

 

[TheDavibob]

Milton Park and Ride is the main complicating factor. It is now served by 2 routes. The main P+R route now has half the service also serving Landbeach and Waterbeach. Route 2 also serves Milton P+R, runs through to Addenbrookes via Mill Road, and uses the P+R electric vehicles. The increase could be partly down to services that have been "reclassified" from non-P+R to P+R.

It is still the case that the main P+R routes are limited stop, except on weekday evenings. But a few more stops have been added, 2 I can think of are Hills Road College and Ditton Walk. There is now a special matchday ticket from Newmarket Road P+R to Ditton Walk when Cambridge United are playing at home, but I don't know how much it is used.

Sorry, my main point was that the (actual) Milton P&R is not limited stop, and hasn't been since the B dropped the stops on Milton Road, though I'm pretty sure it was before. That said, it's the most minor of the P&R routes so probably doesn't have any particular material impact on numbers.

 

[ac6000cw]

Personally, I'd prefer a bus every 30 minutes to every 24, so I might be able to remember when it runs.

So would I, but that's what Stagecoach changed it to (from every 30 minutes) a few months ago - so the 'minutes past the hour' times only repeat every 2 hours...

It is still the case that the main P+R routes are limited stop, except on weekday evenings. But a few more stops have been added, 2 I can think of are Hills Road College and Ditton Walk. There is now a special matchday ticket from Newmarket Road P+R to Ditton Walk when Cambridge United are playing at home, but I don't know how much it is used.

Which is kind of the equivalent of the special Babraham Rd P & R to Addenbrookes return fare.

 

[higthomas]

This has now gone live. Press release is at https://cambridgeshirepeterborough-...-in-cambridgeshire-and-peterborough-goes-live and consultation at https://cpca-yourvoice.co.uk/bus-franchising-consultation/

Bus franchising consultation in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough goes live​

The Combined Authority is asking for views on the future of the region’s buses with the launch of its bus franchising consultation from 12 noon today (Wednesday 14 August 2024).

The 14-week consultation will be open until 20 November 2024 for everyone to take part, either online, via a series of face-to-face events, or by post. It will inform a decision by the Mayor of Cambridgeshire and Peterborough on how to reform buses across the area.

Anyone can take part in the consultation. Families, students and older people who either rely on the bus, or who could benefit from the bus in the future, are being encouraged to participate, as well as statutory consultees, employers and other stakeholders.

The consultation web page: https://cpca-yourvoice.co.uk/bus-franchising-consultation/ will be live from midday and will host all the relevant consultation documents, together with a questionnaire. There are two versions of the questionnaire – a short version comprising 10 questions and a long version comprising 31 questions- and people can choose which one they want to complete, in line with practice elsewhere in the country on this consultation.

Details of drop-in events at locations around the region will be listed on the site during the consultation.

Chief Executive of the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority, Rob Bridge, said: “The start of our bus franchising consultation, which will help decide the future of buses in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, is a key step towards improving services for our local communities. The way our buses are currently operated is going to change so this consultation matters. We really want to hear from as many people and organisations as possible, so don’t miss out and make sure you have your say.”

The Combined Authority commissioned independent transport consultant, ITP, to undertake a detailed assessment of Cambridgeshire and Peterborough’s transport needs and to provide an outline business case assessment for bus reform. Two approaches have been outlined in the assessment: a Franchising solution and an Enhanced Partnership (EP).

The consultation compares a franchising solution with an Enhanced Partnership approach. Under a franchised network, the Combined Authority would contract bus operators to run services on its behalf but have control over the routes, frequency, fares and overall standards of the region’s buses. An alternative Enhanced Partnership solution, while producing benefits over the current bus service, provides less control over the routes, frequency and overall delivery of the services.

Paper copies or large print versions of the consultation documents will be available, and people will also be able to request a copy in the following languages: Polish, Lithuanian, Portuguese and Urdu. It will also be possible to download the consultation documents and submit responses by post.

Statutory consultees will be contacted directly and the Combined Authority plans to use various ways to engage with people during the 14 weeks, including, letters, briefings, newsletters, face-to-face events, focus groups, research (online surveys), media, social media, posters and leaflets at bus stations.

 

[Mollman]

Rural areas don't get busways. The Cambridge guided busway is supposed to be inter-urban linking St Ives, Huntingdon, and nearby villages with Cambridge. It is just as much about commuting as the railways that I compared it with.

The point I'm making is that it is a very expensive piece of infrastructure which is not being used anywhere near capacity. All the time that Cambridge combines underused busway capacity with road traffic congestion the busway can't be said to be delivering. The test is whether it delivers for Cambridge, not how it compares with elsewhere.

The busway could easily operate at 30bph, and that might have an impact on congestion. Franchising could be a way of trying that out. What I'm interested in is what else would need to be done so that the result isn't more congestion in Cambridge because it is full of empty buses.

On the other hand, I suspect that franchising will end up being more about the genuinely rural social need services than what's needed for a growing economy.

But remember those 30bph will have to go somewhere once they reach the end of the bus way, not sure you could get them through Cambridge city centre without causing gridlock.

 

[Magdalia]

But remember those 30bph will have to go somewhere once they reach the end of the bus way

From next year, when Cambridge South opens, that will no longer be the case. The uplift in services could be buses running on the busway to and from Cambridge North on the St Ives side, and on the busway to and from the main Cambridge station on the south side, without all of them needing to go through the City Centre. But it needs through bus/rail ticketing so that busway passengers can get the train between Cambridge North, Cambridge and Cambridge South.

To take things a step further, maybe the busway could be part of Great British Rail(and Bus)ways?