Israel attacks Iran - What will be the wider implications?

[brad465]

I also fear what will happen if/when the Iranian regime does fall. Saddam Hussein losing power just left a vacuum for even worse people to fill.

I saw someone earlier suggest that if the Iranian regime fell imminently the territory could become a major war theatre, not just because of the power vacuum, but its strategic location means several other regimes will vie for control to ensure their interests are protected. These don't just include the US and Israel, but Pakistan, Russia being just to the north and all the other nearby Arab states. They think for this reason Trump and those advising him are snookered and will have to climb down on a deal with the Iranian regime to keep it in place as a least worst option, because the alternative would involve a war the US could not avoid, which is political suicide for "anti-war" Trump.

 

[Yew]

As much as I would like to see a regime change in Iran, the default for violent revolutions is to bring in authoritarian leaders with little interest in democracy.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I saw someone earlier suggest that if the Iranian regime fell imminently the territory could become a major war theatre, not just because of the power vacuum, but its strategic location means several other regimes will vie for control to ensure their interests are protected.

Russia wouldn't be capable of very much, but I'd be looking very closely at Turkey in this scenario. They already have a lot of influence in Syria, and having influence in Iran would transform Turkey into a major distributor of oil. They would achieve a major geopolitical aim by having influence over Iran, and from the West's point of view, it would be far preferable to have Erdogan in control of Iran than the alternatives.

They think for this reason Trump and those advising him are snookered and will have to climb down on a deal with the Iranian regime to keep it in place as a least worst option, because the alternative would involve a war the US could not avoid, which is political suicide for "anti-war" Trump.

I'd put the smart money on Israel doing the damage and then agreeing that Turkey can deploy ground forces to impose regime change. No-one else has the forces to do such a thing in the Middle East, and leaving Iran to 'figure it out' is just going to lead to even more chaos. An Erdogan puppet is probably the best that we can hope for.

Having said all this, I think Israel has managed to expose Iran for what they are: a bunch of loudmouths with very little real military capabilities.

 

[brad465]

Trump now saying the whole of Tehran (pop. around 9 million), should immediately evacuate. Yeah if Iranians listened to this, that will be right chaos:

Trump cuts short G7 trip over Middle East tensions as Israel and Iran exchange fire

Blasts have been heard in Tehran and sirens have sounded in Israel as US president convenes National Security Council.

www.bbc.co.uk

'Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran', says Trump​

​

In a post on his social media platform Truth Social, US President Donald Trump says that "everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran".

His comments come after Israeli officials advised residents to evacuate parts of north-eastern Tehran earlier today, saying it planned to target "military infrastructure".

In his post, Trump adds that Iran should have signed the deal that he put forward to them in the most recent round of US-Iran nuclear talks.

"Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON," he writes. "I said it over and over again!

"Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!"

The BBC’s Anthony Zurcher is in Alberta, Canada, at the G7, which Trump is attending. Our correspondent just asked the president’s press aide there for clarification on his social media post.

Zurcher was directed to contact the main White House press team back in Washington for comment. Stick with us as we follow this one up.

Russia wouldn't be capable of very much, but I'd be looking very closely at Turkey in this scenario. They already have a lot of influence in Syria, and having influence in Iran would transform Turkey into a major distributor of oil. They would achieve a major geopolitical aim by having influence over Iran, and from the West's point of view, it would be far preferable to have Erdogan in control of Iran than the alternatives.

The current conflict is a swings and roundabouts situ for Russia: on the one hand higher oil prices and a diversion of attention away from Ukraine helps them, however Israeli forces attacking Iran is damaging the latter's arm's exports, chiefly drones, to Russia, both due to the production being damaged and/or diverted for Iran's own needs.

 

[Tazi Hupefi]

Iranians have been leaving Tehran in significant numbers over the last few days already, the queues of traffic to leave have been building steadily.

Still don't think any of this will amount to more than a show of force and is more designed to embarrass Iran and their assortment of questionable allies.

Just the US president sending a single tweet has caused mayhem there tonight, no need for any seriously lethal mass destruction. Trump can now virtue signal, "I had the means and opportunity, but I chose not to".

I predict this will cause chaos in the UK in the coming weeks with the small boats coming across from France, especially with the weather improving. The displaced Iranians are going to have to go somewhere. Can't see many wanting to head back, even if things stabilise.

 

[DustyBin]

I take your points but why would we find ourselves at war with Iran if we stayed out of the current conflict and condemned both sides? The biggest risk to us IMO is taking sides in this conflict.

We haven't found ourselves at war, as such, with any Middle Eastern country in the past even though some have perhaps sponsored terrorist attacks. Why would it be different now?

I agree this is the biggest risk, but it’s not the only risk. What if Iran accuses us of being involved and attacks UK forces as per their threats? Then there’s the wider geopolitical situation with Iran being a key supporter of Russia. The West may decide this is too good an opportunity to remove Iran from the equation, and we would inevitably be involved at that point.

Hopefully we won’t get directly involved, but there are some not particularly far fetched scenarios that could see it happen.

The other question is, why is it OK for the Israeli government to bomb residential areas in Tehran? What are they trying to achieve by doing that?

Are they not targeting individuals in those buildings? I’m not saying that makes it OK, but it’s their usual modus operandi.

 

[brad465]

I predict this will cause chaos in the UK in the coming weeks with the small boats coming across from France, especially with the weather improving. The displaced Iranians are going to have to go somewhere. Can't see many wanting to head back, even if things stabilise.

Whether or not this actually happens, I do think the UK government (plus several European governments) is missing a big trick in pointing out that powers like Putin's Russia, Netanyahu's Israel and Iran via its proxies are the main causes of all this migrants. Russian foreign policy especially has weaponising migration as a goal to destabilise Europe, not just from Syria and Ukraine, but via mercenaries in North Africa. Iran are of course supporting Russia in Ukraine so this all links in well.

I am surprised though no government in Europe is really pointing this out, you'd think they'd relish the opportunity to blame someone else (even though in this case they'd be correct) and increase justification for military support for the likes of Ukraine (which governments do at least recognise is necessary).

 

[Russel]

Whether or not this actually happens, I do think the UK government (plus several European governments) is missing a big trick in pointing out that powers like Putin's Russia, Netanyahu's Israel and Iran via its proxies are the main causes of all this migrants. Russian foreign policy especially has weaponising migration as a goal to destabilise Europe, not just from Syria and Ukraine, but via mercenaries in North Africa. Iran are of course supporting Russia in Ukraine so this all links in well.

I am surprised though no government in Europe is really pointing this out, you'd think they'd relish the opportunity to blame someone else (even though in this case they'd be correct) and increase justification for military support for the likes of Ukraine (which governments do at least recognise is necessary).

Accepting the number of migrants we are currently taking, is simply due to our government allowing it to happen, look at countries such as Poland as an example of how we could deal with the problem.

 

[brad465]

Only Trump would use this sort of language:

Iran and Israel launch more attacks as Trump weighs US involvement

Iran and Israel continue strikes on Wednesday night, after Donald Trump says the US "may" join the Israeli attacks.

www.bbc.co.uk

Trump: We know where Iranian leader is but won't kill him, for now
​

Donald Trump has just posted a follow up on social media.

He says: "We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding.

"He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.

"But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"

Moments ago, he posted to say that "we have complete and total control of the skies over Iran".

 

[Cowley]

Only Trump would use this sort of language:

Iran and Israel launch more attacks as Trump weighs US involvement

Iran and Israel continue strikes on Wednesday night, after Donald Trump says the US "may" join the Israeli attacks.

www.bbc.co.uk

Just trying to claim any credit he can at this point.

 

[brad465]

"Considering" in this context likely means "will definitely do":

Iran and Israel launch more attacks as Trump weighs US involvement

Iran and Israel continue strikes on Wednesday night, after Donald Trump says the US "may" join the Israeli attacks.

www.bbc.co.uk

Trump considering joining Israel to strike Iran's nuclear sites - reports
​

US President Donald Trump is considering joining Israel to strike Iranian nuclear sites, including in Fordow, sources familiar with the issue are quoted as saying by CBS, the BBC's news partner in the US.

They say this was expected to be discussed in today's meeting in the Situation Room, adding that there is not a full agreement among Trump's closest advisers.

 

[Cloud Strife]

look at countries such as Poland as an example of how we could deal with the problem.

Poland is not a good example. The previous government pretended to be hard on migrants, but then sold around 250,000 visas to African and Asian migrants with very little or no checks whatsoever. The current government is dealing with it, but who knows how many simply vanished after arriving in the EU.

I am surprised though no government in Europe is really pointing this out

This is well known in the Baltic States and Poland. Not a day goes by without some reports from the Russian and Belarusian borders, and each country reported the same thing: what was previously a tightly controlled border with quite good cooperation has turned into a lawless mess. It's not a secret that Russia has weaponised migration, while Belarus has been earning very well on Belavia operating flights to places like Istanbul and Dubai.

"Considering" in this context likely means "will definitely do":

I think they will, but only once it's clear that Iran's air defences are finished. Trump is not an idiot, he knows that if American assets are shot down over Iran, his entire "no war" rhetoric will be torn apart. I'd expect something more symbolic, like a bombing raid over Tehran that he will dress up as an enormous victory.

 

[GusB]

Only Trump would use this sort of language:

Iran and Israel launch more attacks as Trump weighs US involvement

Iran and Israel continue strikes on Wednesday night, after Donald Trump says the US "may" join the Israeli attacks.

www.bbc.co.uk

"Thank you for your attention to this matter!" It's almost as if Trump is simply issuing an office memo. I really wish he'd shut his gob because he's not improving matters. Perhaps someone should remind him that if he really wants that Nobel Peace Prize, he's going the wrong way about it. Maybe "world peace" is too incompatible with his "strongman" desires.

 

[DustyBin]

I think they will, but only once it's clear that Iran's air defences are finished. Trump is not an idiot, he knows that if American assets are shot down over Iran, his entire "no war" rhetoric will be torn apart. I'd expect something more symbolic, like a bombing raid over Tehran that he will dress up as an enormous victory.

I suspect they’ll target underground nuclear sites which seemingly only the US can (hopefully) successfully destroy. They’d need to use B2 bombers so won’t want to take any chances with air defences as you say, stealth or no stealth. This, and planning to ensure the strikes are successful probably explains the delay.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I suspect they’ll target underground nuclear sites which seemingly only the US can (hopefully) successfully destroy. They’d need to use B2 bombers so won’t want to take any chances with air defences as you say, stealth or no stealth. This, and planning to ensure the strikes are successful probably explains the delay.

Yes, the US military tends to err on the side of caution when it comes to their operations. I can't imagine they'll do anything without a guaranteed win on their hands, although the defence contractors must be rubbing their hands in glee right now.

Another thought: it's possible that the US is also holding off because they want to see if Israel can pound the Iranian regime into surrendering first. Israel has clear air dominance, Iran seems to be all but giving up on their missiles, and it seems that Israel knows exactly what to hit to degrade their capabilities even further. It's very possible that Iran simply is holding back for the time being, but I think the obvious answer is that they simply don't have the capabilities.

One thing that I think we should all appreciate is what an incredible job Israel has done with their intelligence. They've built up an incredible intelligence network in Iran that allowed them to take out various military figures and targets, and they couldn't have achieved air dominance without it. While Mossad already had a fearsome reputation, this just confirms that they really are without equal.

 

[DustyBin]

Yes, the US military tends to err on the side of caution when it comes to their operations. I can't imagine they'll do anything without a guaranteed win on their hands, although the defence contractors must be rubbing their hands in glee right now.

Another thought: it's possible that the US is also holding off because they want to see if Israel can pound the Iranian regime into surrendering first. Israel has clear air dominance, Iran seems to be all but giving up on their missiles, and it seems that Israel knows exactly what to hit to degrade their capabilities even further. It's very possible that Iran simply is holding back for the time being, but I think the obvious answer is that they simply don't have the capabilities.

One thing that I think we should all appreciate is what an incredible job Israel has done with their intelligence. They've built up an incredible intelligence network in Iran that allowed them to take out various military figures and targets, and they couldn't have achieved air dominance without it. While Mossad already had a fearsome reputation, this just confirms that they really are without equal.

I agree, I think the preference in the US is for Iran to surrender and/or the regime to be removed from within.

There also seems to be a question mark over whether the MOP (Massive Ordinance Penetrator) can successfully destroy the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant as it’s located so deep inside a mountain. I’m speculating here, but if it can’t someone will need to put boots on the ground in order to secure the site and “decommission” it. I imagine that’s going to require a lot of planning and preparation as it’s very risky.

In regard to the fairly weak response from Iran I also agree with you. From the reports I’ve read Israel has targeted the launchers, which makes the huge stockpiles of missiles Iran claims to have next to useless.

 

[dangie]

There also seems to be a question mark over whether the MOP (Massive Ordinance Penetrator) can successfully destroy the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant as it’s located so deep inside a mountain. I’m speculating here, but if it can’t someone will need to put boots on the ground in order to secure the site and “decommission” it. I imagine that’s going to require a lot of planning and preparation as it’s very risky.

On the other hand, even if it may be difficult to physically destroy it, who would want to work in it knowing it is a target?

 

[nw1]

It should be said that if Iran indeed are weak, that makes Netanyahu look like a bully - and his actions will do the western world no favours whatsoever.

 

[Carlisle]

Perhaps someone should remind him that if he really wants that Nobel Peace Prize, he's going the wrong way about it.

On that issue I agree, right now he’s coming across as little more than Netanyahus Poodle, perhaps he can regain some respect in the next few days or weeks, we shall see.

 

[Mogster]

I suspect they’ll target underground nuclear sites which seemingly only the US can (hopefully) successfully destroy. They’d need to use B2 bombers so won’t want to take any chances with air defences as you say, stealth or no stealth. This, and planning to ensure the strikes are successful probably explains the delay.

Using B2s in any sort of contested airspace would be a massive risk. They’d need an aerial armada of support to make sure. Other than the low radar observability B2s may as well be 737s. Losing any aircraft would be hugely embarrassing to the US.

Then there’s the questions raised over whether the bombs can actually do the job. Nearly 100m of rock and concrete would require multiple hits it seems. A ground assault would seem the only reliable way of disabling/destroying the facility. It sounds bonkers but the IDF may be up for it.

Significant that Iran are also very aware of the likely target by air and land and will be waiting. I’d be amazed if they don’t have some sort of special welcome organised.

Crazy times.

 

[nw1]

On that issue I agree, right now he’s coming across as little more than Netanyahus Poodle, perhaps he can regain some respect in the next few days or weeks, we shall see.

The Nobel Idiot Prize more like. Sabre-rattling about Iran will do no good at all, even if he doesn't perpetrate any violence.

 

[AlterEgo]

The other aspect of this is Iran requires humiliating because of its questionable allies. Russia's Middle East "partners" are in retreat - they lost Assad in Syria, and a humbling or loss of Iran's regime would be a severe strategic blow to Russia.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It should be said that if Iran indeed are weak, that makes Netanyahu look like a bully - and his actions will do the western world no favours whatsoever.

Netanyahu is a criminal launching an unprovoked attack on Iran yet there not sanctioned by the UN or any G7 country. What message is this sending to other bully nations around the world. Before we know it the be will be flare ups all over the place which isn't good for the global economy nor will it do anything to reduce the number of displaced people across the planet.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

After the Iranian strike on a hospital in Israel (claimed by Iran to have been intended hit an adjacent military installation) the Israeli Defence Minister has called for the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khameini, stating that he ‘should cease to exist.’

Iran will consider diplomacy when aggression stops, foreign minister says after talks with European leaders

Fighting between Iran and Israel has continued while the talks in Geneva have been taking place, as the UK says it will withdraw staff from its embassy in Tehran.

www.bbc.co.uk

There is an interesting comparison to be drawn between this action and the Israeli response, and the systematic targeting of Palestinian hospital installations in Gaza on various occasions over the preceding year or so, with corresponding Israeli justifications about targeting adjacent military sites. Presumably Netanyahu should also ‘cease to exist’!

 

[brad465]

If Ayatollah Ali Khameini hasn't fled the country yet, I can certainly see him trying now. If he flees to Russia and Israeli forces still try to take him out, that could make things very spicy (though what Putin can do about it given he's bogged down in Ukraine is anyone's guess).

 

[nw1]

To hell with militaristic warmongers. There should be absolutely no talk of unprovoked assassinations.

The West should refuse to provide any kind of support for any aggressor nation which thinks that war is morally justified. Love of war as a form of "justice" is one of the greatest evils that there is.

 

[Russel]

Netanyahu is a criminal launching an unprovoked attack on Iran yet there not sanctioned by the UN or any G7 country. What message is this sending to other bully nations around the world. Before we know it the be will be flare ups all over the place which isn't good for the global economy nor will it do anything to reduce the number of displaced people across the planet.

Unprovoked... Really?

Iran have been funding the proxies that have been attacking Israel for years.

 

[bleeder4]

We should stay out of it. It's nothing to do with us. Iran and Israel have been at each other's throats for my entire life. The Middle East in general as a region has had a war going on somewhere since before the birth of Christ. It's always been a troubled part of the world. Look at what happened with Iraq. We deposed a tyrant but brought about the rise of Islamic State and endless civil wars that led to even more people getting killed than the tyrant ever did. By deposing the Iranian regime we could usher in an even worse regime.

 

[PrincesWinsdor]

We should stay out of it. It's nothing to do with us. Iran and Israel have been at each other's throats for my entire life. The Middle East in general as a region has had a war going on somewhere since before the birth of Christ. It's always been a troubled part of the world. Look at what happened with Iraq. We deposed a tyrant but brought about the rise of Islamic State and endless civil wars that led to even more people getting killed than the tyrant ever did. By deposing the Iranian regime we could usher in an even worse regime.

Which is why bringing the shah back to power will bring many benefits. Given that during the shah's rule, Iran was prosperous economically and a US ally. With the four major middle east powers(Iseral, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia) being US allies. Peace can finally be brought to the region.

We should stay out of it. It's nothing to do with us. Iran and Israel have been at each other's throats for my entire life. The Middle East in general as a region has had a war going on somewhere since before the birth of Christ. It's always been a troubled part of the world. Look at what happened with Iraq. We deposed a tyrant but brought about the rise of Islamic State and endless civil wars that led to even more people getting killed than the tyrant ever did. By deposing the Iranian regime we could usher in an even worse regime.

 

[Mogster]

RAF Lakenheath planespotters gather as F-22 fighter jets arrive - BBC News

Planespotters and flight trackers are reporting an increase in activity around the airbase.

www.bbc.co.uk

F-22 Raptor fighter jets, which are exclusively flown by the US Air Force (USAF), arrived at RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk on Wednesday night.

12 F-22 fighters arrive at Lakenheath.