Israel attacks Iran - What will be the wider implications?

[Russel]

a bit like Israel attacking Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon etc.!

Difference being, Israel appears to be able to actually fight on multiple fronts at the same time.

Whereas Iran have shown themselves up as another paper tiger...

 

[JamesT]

a bit like Israel attacking Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon etc.!

Though arguably that’s all just attacking Iran, given the way they support Hamas/Hezbollah/etc.

 

[Russel]

What are our current predictions on how this conflict will play out, timeframes etc?

 

[DustyBin]

As much as I'd love to see the Iranian regime fall, I hope there are plans for handling the aftermath among several nations. Saddam Hussein's government fell within weeks of the Iraq invasion, but hardly anyone who publicly backed it at the time admits it now having seen the chaos that followed. Similar with Libya.

This is a very good point. However, if the regime were to fall suddenly without significant internal conflict, I’m reasonably confident the Iranian people would sort the country out themselves. The majority seem desperate for change and are only kept in line through fear. It could all go wrong though as you say, so there needs to be a proper plan for the future.

a bit like Israel attacking Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon etc.!

I think you know that’s the falsest of false equivalences…

 

[Tazi Hupefi]

What are our current predictions on how this conflict will play out, timeframes etc?

This isn't a conflict, they're tickling each others' bellies at the moment, and the media are trying to work it into something that it is not.

There will be a few more missiles in each direction, couple more assassinations of regime leaders, probably both sides - and then it will all subside away like it normally does until the next time the pressure valve needs to be loosened.

It will only really start to kick off if one of these missiles ends up hitting a foreign (i.e. British, American, Turkish etc) ship or aircraft etc.

 

[Russel]

This isn't a conflict, they're tickling each others' bellies at the moment, and the media are trying to work it into something that it is not.

There will be a few more missiles in each direction, couple more assassinations of regime leaders, probably both sides - and then it will all subside away like it normally does until the next time the pressure valve needs to be loosened.

It will only really start to kick off if one of these missiles ends up hitting a foreign (i.e. British, American, Turkish etc) ship or aircraft etc.

Israel taking out the majority of Iran's air defence and having free rein over Tehran isn't what I'd describe as belly tickling.

 

[Tazi Hupefi]

Israel taking out the majority of Iran's air defence and having free rein over Tehran isn't what I'd describe as belly tickling.

Let's wait and see what they actually do with that first.

A lot of what Israel seems to do in Iran appears to be designed to humiliate the regime and remind them what is possible.

 

[Russel]

Let's wait and see what they actually do with that first.

A lot of what Israel seems to do in Iran appears to be designed to humiliate the regime and remind them what is possible.

Have you actually been watching the news?

It's very apparent what Israel are doing...

 

[nanstallon]

Israel is right to take this action against a country whose government threatens Israel's very existence. By threatening Israel, the Iranian regime deserves to be attacked. I hope that the Israeli military action is properly targeted on legitimate military targets, and that there will not be massive civilian casualties. As for possible regime change, the Iranian regime will keep its iron grip on the people whatever Israel does, or doesn't, do.

In Gaza, it is of course terrible that so many innocent people are suffering, but terrorists hide among the general population. Israel doesn't have luxury of being able to tolerate terrorism.

 

[DM352]

If this becomes ongoing like Gaza, it could spill into countries where populations of both sides live beginning with face offs in downtown areas/at universities.

 

[Tazi Hupefi]

If this becomes ongoing like Gaza, it could spill into countries where populations of both sides live beginning with face offs in downtown areas/at universities.

Give it a week and it will be back to how it was last Sunday!

It's all a performance - anyone who thinks this is leading to any significant long term change or advantage is deluded.

The way some of the media is covering it, you'd think it was World War 3.

Iran are down a few scientists and fanatic generals, and Israel has infrastructure damage. All replaceable in time. The missile shows look great for TV.

 

[Russel]

Give it a week and it will be back to how it was last Sunday!

It's all a performance - anyone who thinks this is leading to any significant long term change or advantage is deluded.

The way some of the media is covering it, you'd think it was World War 3.

Iran are down a few scientists and fanatic generals, and Israel has infrastructure damage. All replaceable in time. The missile shows look great for TV.

Wiping out a countries air defence system, gaining air superiority over it's capital city, bombing their nuclear weapon development sites, military bases and oil refineries is all just a "performance", really?

It's clearly not WW3 as the media like to hype it up as, but it's clearly a very serious escalation.

 

[nanstallon]

Wiping out a countries air defence system, gaining air superiority over it's capital city, bombing their nuclear weapon development sites, military bases and oil refineries is all just a "performance", really?

It's clearly not WW3 as the media like to hype it up as, but it's clearly a very serious escalation.

Israel is not going to tolerate Iran gaining nuclear weapons, and will go to any length necessary to prevent that. I don't blame Israel. If the West had shown similar resolve when North Korea was developing nuclear weapons, the world would be a better place.

 

[Tazi Hupefi]

Wiping out a countries air defence system, gaining air superiority over it's capital city, bombing their nuclear weapon development sites, military bases and oil refineries is all just a "performance", really?

It's clearly not WW3 as the media like to hype it up as, but it's clearly a very serious escalation.

Any modern nation equipped with Western style weapons could do that.

Iran has done a fair bit of damage to Israeli oil facilities etc too.

But again - so what?

Israel may have gained air superiority over Tehran, but what are they going to do with it? What does that actually mean? At the moment, it's wholly performative and embarrassing.

As for nuclear weapon development sites, that is something of a leap - absolutely no evidence of that at all. The facilities that have been targeted are primarily civil nuclear sites. Yes, I'm sure Iran was up to no good at some of them, but they have no nuclear weapons and I suspect were not even close. Again, it's all optics and rhetoric from both sides trying to look big and strong to their populations, who are starting to see through both of them.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Jun 2025 ==

Israel is not going to tolerate Iran gaining nuclear weapons, and will go to any length necessary to prevent that. I don't blame Israel. If the West had shown similar resolve when North Korea was developing nuclear weapons, the world would be a better place.

What difference has North Korea made to your life?

What difference has North Korea having a nuclear missile made to your life?

How is your life worse because of it?

 

[Sorcerer]

Israel is not going to tolerate Iran gaining nuclear weapons, and will go to any length necessary to prevent that. I don't blame Israel. If the West had shown similar resolve when North Korea was developing nuclear weapons, the world would be a better place.

Ironically the assaults on Tehran is only going to further strengthen the Iranian regime's resolve in developing nuclear weapons. You can talk about the West showing strength in trying to prevent rival world powers from developing their own nuclear weapons but the fact remains that, whether you agree with them having them or not, it is within their survival interests to do.

When you are considered a hostile nation by the United States or a country it is closely allied with such as South Korea, Japan or Israel, then the only way you could possibly level the playing field against such power is ability to unleash a literal recreation of the sun on enemy forces. Russia having nuclear weapons is the only reason NATO forces haven't been able to end the war in Ukraine, otherwise it could've been over in about a week.

 

[Russel]

As for nuclear weapon development sites, that is something of a leap - absolutely no evidence of that at all. The facilities that have been targeted are primarily civil nuclear sites. Yes, I'm sure Iran was up to no good at some of them.

No evidence, but you're sure they are up to no good...?

The IAEA have even expressed concern that Irans Nuclear sites are not exclusively civil...

 

[brad465]

Reports that there was/is a plan for Israeli officials to assassinate the Iranian Supreme Leader, but that Trump rejected it:

Trump told Israel not to kill Iran's supreme leader

Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that assassinating Khamenei was not a good idea, according to CBS.

www.bbc.co.uk

US President Donald Trump rejected a plan by Israel to kill Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, three US officials have told BBC's US partner CBS News.

Trump reportedly told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that assassinating Khamenei was not a good idea, according to one official. The president has not commented publicly on the report.

The conversation is said to have happened since Israel launched its attack on Iran on Friday.

During an interview with Fox News, Netanyahu did not directly confirm or deny a report from Reuters that Trump had vetoed a plan to killed the ayatollah.

"There's so many false reports of conversations that never happened and I'm not going to get into that," the Israeli prime minister said.

"But I can tell you I think we do what we need to do. We will do what we need to do and I think the United States knows what is good for the United States and I'm just not going to get into it."

An Israeli official told CBS News that "in principle," Israel does not "kill political leaders, we are focused on nuclear and military. I don't think anyone making decisions about those programs should be living free and easy."

Israel first launched an attack on Iranian nuclear infrastructure and other targets on Friday.

Iran later confirmed the head of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) intelligence unit, Mohammad Kazemi, had been killed, alongside a deputy and another commander.

The two countries have continued to launch massive strikes at each other since, with attacks entering a third day on Sunday.

In his latest post on Truth Social about the escalating situation in the Middle East, Trump said "Iran and Israel should make a deal", adding that he would get the two to cease hostilities "just like I got India and Pakistan" - referring to the recent confrontation between the countries.

In a separate post on Saturday, the president said the US "had nothing to do with the attack on Iran".

"If we are attacked in any way, shape or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the U.S. Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before," he warned.

I found the bit I've put in bold somewhat amusing, given all the top brass of Hamas have been assassinated by IDF forces. I'm not for a minute suggesting the former leaders of Hamas were good people (bearing in mind 3 of them were wanted by the ICC before their deaths), but their remark here is very much a lie.

 

[GusB]

Israel is right to take this action against a country whose government threatens Israel's very existence. By threatening Israel, the Iranian regime deserves to be attacked. I hope that the Israeli military action is properly targeted on legitimate military targets, and that there will not be massive civilian casualties. As for possible regime change, the Iranian regime will keep its iron grip on the people whatever Israel does, or doesn't, do.

Iran also has a right to defend itself against a country that threatens its existence. The Israeli regime has no right to complain when the country it's targetting responds in kind. The Israeli military doesn't care whether or not its attacks are targetted against legitimate military targets, either; it has already shown this by its actions against Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.

In Gaza, it is of course terrible that so many innocent people are suffering, but terrorists hide among the general population. Israel doesn't have luxury of being able to tolerate terrorism.

*yawn* Crocodile tears. So terrible that the people you really don't give a monkey's about are suffering. Israel could stop all hostilities and return to dialogue tomorrow if it wanted to. It could stop its people settling in Palestinian areas and inflaming the situation. Please stop pretending that Israel is the victim; Israel is the aggressor and if it actually wants peace, it's there for the taking.

Israel is not going to tolerate Iran gaining nuclear weapons, and will go to any length necessary to prevent that. I don't blame Israel. If the West had shown similar resolve when North Korea was developing nuclear weapons, the world would be a better place.

No mention of the fact that Israel actually has nuclear weapons. I'm not really happy with any nation having nuclear weapons, but I completely understand Iran's desire to obtain a nuclear deterrent.

 

[DustyBin]

Iran also has a right to defend itself against a country that threatens its existence. The Israeli regime has no right to complain when the country it's targetting responds in kind. The Israeli military doesn't care whether or not its attacks are targetted against legitimate military targets, either; it has already shown this by its actions against Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.


*yawn* Crocodile tears. So terrible that the people you really don't give a monkey's about are suffering. Israel could stop all hostilities and return to dialogue tomorrow if it wanted to. It could stop its people settling in Palestinian areas and inflaming the situation. Please stop pretending that Israel is the victim; Israel is the aggressor and if it actually wants peace, it's there for the taking.


No mention of the fact that Israel actually has nuclear weapons. I'm not really happy with any nation having nuclear weapons, but I completely understand Iran's desire to obtain a nuclear deterrent.

I’m not aware of Israel threatening Iran’s existence, however the Iranian regime has frequently voiced its desire to see Israel wiped off the map.

It’s also worth remembering that Iran sponsors terrorism around the world, and is an active supporter of Russia’s war against Ukraine (which is also a war against the West). At best, the regime wants to obtain a nuclear “deterrent” so it can continue these activities without fear of retaliation, which isn’t something any right minded person should sympathise with or support.

Whatever your view of Israel, or its actions in Gaza and Lebanon, the prospect of a nuclear armed Iran is terrifying.

 

[Giugiaro]

What will be interesting to see is how- if at all- Russia does react.

So far... not much.

Russia has its hands so tied with Ukraine that they had to resort to North Korean soldiers and Iranian weapons just to get its act together.
Despite the fact that the Iranian–Russian Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership was signed just days before Trump took office, I don't believe Russia will have much to contribute to the current conflict between Israel and Iran. After all, Russia isn't well known for honouring their international treaties, right?

Though, one could say that Russia could mishandle one of its nuclear weapons and, accidentally, it ends up in the hands of the Iranians? Only time could tell...

 

[nw1]

Israel is not going to tolerate Iran gaining nuclear weapons, and will go to any length necessary to prevent that. I don't blame Israel. If the West had shown similar resolve when North Korea was developing nuclear weapons, the world would be a better place.

They would I suspect just be a deterrent, do you really think Iran would drop nuclear bombs on Israel knowing full well that there would be severe consequences against itself (likely catastrophic conventional bombing of Iran by the US) and that Iran would surrender any moral-high-ground position by launching a nuclear attack?

Of course we should be stopping Iran developing nuclear bombs, just like we need to be stopping any dictatorial regime developing them. But attacking Iran is scarcely the way to achieve that aim. Maybe listening to Iran's concerns would be a good way to start; try to understand why they seem to think a nuclear deterrent is necessary. Maybe the West ceasing to see the Israeli state as an ally, when it has spent the past two years bombing Gaza to oblivion, would be a start.

Would you still not blame the Israeli state if the UK suffers a terrorist attack as a reprisal for the bombing of Tehran? As a UK citizen I definitely do not feel that we should be sacrificing ourselves in the name of a foreign conflict. I'd like to see Starmer (as well as Macron and Merz) come out and unambiguously condemn Netanyahu and the Israeli state over this. No chance of Trump doing the same, so someone has to do it.

 

[Tetchytyke]

It’s also worth remembering that Iran sponsors terrorism around the world, and is an active supporter of Russia’s war against Ukraine (which is also a war against the West). At best, the regime wants to obtain a nuclear “deterrent” so it can continue these activities without fear of retaliation

Much of this can also be said about the Israelis, who aren't quite the peace-loving democracy that they like to pretend that they are. The last Israeli leader who made serious efforts to secure peace was assassinated; whilst the official line is that he was a lone wolf, the killer had some interesting links with the Shin Bet. The Knesset then had to pass a specific law preventing anyone pardoning the killer's pardon because Netanyahu, who had stoked up all the anger against Rabin, actually wanted to pardon the killer.

Remember, also, that the Likud party was founded by an actual terrorist.

None of this should be confused with support for the evil Iranian regime; if they were to be wiped off the map, I don't think any of us would shed a tear.

Israel is the aggressor and if it actually wants peace, it's there for the taking.

I said soon after the Hamas attacks in 2023 that Israel would finish this in the same way that the Sinhalese finished the Sri Lankan civil war. In that war the Sinhalese bombed Tamil civilians under the pretence that the LTTE (Tamil Tigers) were hiding in civilian areas. The Tamils were largely driven out of the country- either they were killed or they were forced to flee to India.

Sri Lanka is a lot more peaceful these days. That's the sort of peace the Israelis want.

The IAEA have even expressed concern that Irans Nuclear sites are not exclusively civil...

Israel have been saying for 30 years that Iran were two years from getting nuclear weapons.

Reminds me of nothing more than Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction. Supposed independent observers, funded by the West, were also adamant that they existed in huge quantities. Turns out they didn't.

It's weird how the right wing are adamant that Tony Blair is a 'war criminal' for going into Iraq due to the non-existent WMDs, but are also so quick to believe Bibi when he says Iran has them.

I also fear what will happen if/when the Iranian regime does fall. Saddam Hussein losing power just left a vacuum for even worse people to fill.

Though, one could say that Russia could mishandle one of its nuclear weapons and, accidentally, it ends up in the hands of the Iranians? Only time could tell...

Russia is dependent on Iranian military hardware, especially for its drones. I do wonder (fear) what the quid pro quo will be.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I also fear what will happen if/when the Iranian regime does fall. Saddam Hussein losing power just left a vacuum for even worse people to fill.

That of course is when you REALLY don't want there to be nukes. Khomeini (like his mate Putin) might be a bit mad but he isn't suicidal.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Would you still not blame Israel if the UK suffers a terrorist attack as a reprisal for the bombing of Tehran?

That is what really worries me at the minute.

I don't think Iran have the military capability to fight back through conventional military means. The Iranian leadership will be desperate. And desperate people do desperate things.

I wasn't joking when I said I wouldn't be holidaying in Egypt or Cyprus any time soon.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That is what really worries me at the minute.

I don't think Iran have the military capability to fight back through conventional military means. The Iranian leadership will be desperate. And desperate people do desperate things.

I wasn't joking when I said I wouldn't be holidaying in Egypt or Cyprus any time soon.

I think there is a very high chance of a terror attack as a reprisal, to be honest, I'd almost say it's a near certainty, it's just a question of how severe it is. I don't however think it'll be directly from Iran, but rather will be by nutters who support their cause.

 

[brad465]

I think there is a very high chance of a terror attack as a reprisal, to be honest, I'd almost say it's a near certainty, it's just a question of how severe it is. I don't however think it'll be directly from Iran, but rather will be by nutters who support their cause.

This also throws up a further problem of how to handle the aftermath: in the instance of a terror attack where the motive was "UK support for Israel bombing the Middle East indiscriminately, or similar", you can't say, "this wouldn't have happened if we weren't blindly supporting Israel violate international law" without being condemned as a terrorist sympathiser, even though it's possible to condemn the method while agreeing with at least some of the principle motive.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Though, one could say that Russia could mishandle one of its nuclear weapons and, accidentally, it ends up in the hands of the Iranians? Only time could tell...

Russia wouldn't do it for the simple reason that they're unlikely to have any confidence in their weapons. If they did such a thing and it failed to work, their nuclear deterrent is all but dead.

I don't think Iran have the military capability to fight back through conventional military means.

Israel has air dominance, but a lot depends on whether or not Iran can get through Israeli defences with their ballistic missiles. If they can hit even 1 in 10, I'm not convinced that the Israeli public are ready for that level of destruction. They've allegedly used around 10% (300 out of an alleged 3000) of their missiles so far, and it's clear that they've managed to land some good hits on Israel so far.

A lot also depends on what the Americans actually supply to Israel. They won't be able to destroy the nuclear facilities without bunker buster bombs, and it seems pretty clear that Israel doesn't have the military capability to finish the job by themselves. They'd need American bombers to do that, and the US won't go in there unless Iran is completely incapable of defending their skies. There's certainly a corridor through to Tehran, but Iran is a huge country and achieving complete air dominance is not going to happen. Having said that, it seems that Israel has a pretty solid system for refuelling in the air, and the Americans have almost certainly sent quite a few tankers last night too.

Some observers suggest that Iran also hasn't used their real heavy wepaons, including cruise missiles, and I'm not convinced that anyone, even the US, has the capability to defend against a massive missile attack.

On the flip side, it's very possible that Israel has already taken out large amounts of missiles. If they have, and Iran is running out of usable missiles, then I'm struggling to see what Iran could do without resorting to economic blockades (Strait of Hormuz) and acts of terrorism. Then again, the Saudis might quite fancy a pop at Iran if they block the Strait of Hormuz, so that might also not be on the table.

There are a lot of interesting 'what-if' scenarios, but Iran is essentially alone in this conflict.

 

[DustyBin]

They would I suspect just be a deterrent, do you really think Iran would drop nuclear bombs on Israel knowing full well that there would be severe consequences against itself (likely catastrophic conventional bombing of Iran by the US) and that Iran would surrender any moral-high-ground position by launching a nuclear attack?

Of course we should be stopping Iran developing nuclear bombs, just like we need to be stopping any dictatorial regime developing them. But attacking Iran is scarcely the way to achieve that aim. Maybe listening to Iran's concerns would be a good way to start; try to understand why they seem to think a nuclear deterrent is necessary. Maybe the West ceasing to see the Israeli state as an ally, when it has spent the past two years bombing Gaza to oblivion, would be a start.

Would you still not blame the Israeli state if the UK suffers a terrorist attack as a reprisal for the bombing of Tehran? As a UK citizen I definitely do not feel that we should be sacrificing ourselves in the name of a foreign conflict. I'd like to see Starmer (as well as Macron and Merz) come out and unambiguously condemn Netanyahu and the Israeli state over this. No chance of Trump doing the same, so someone has to do it.

With respect, I think you’re missing the bigger picture here. As per my previous post, Iran is openly supporting Russia in its war against Ukraine and the West. It’s not all about Israel; unfortunately we could realistically find ourselves at war with Iran in the near future, and I’d far rather they weren’t a nuclear power should the worst happen.

In regard to your second point, I’d blame the perpetrators and their supporters should the UK suffer a terrorist attack. I would however condemn Israel should it turn out Iran’s nuclear programme is entirely peaceful, and they weren’t trying/near to developing a nuclear weapon. As it stands though I think they probably were/are.

Much of this can also be said about the Israelis, who aren't quite the peace-loving democracy that they like to pretend that they are. The last Israeli leader who made serious efforts to secure peace was assassinated; whilst the official line is that he was a lone wolf, the killer had some interesting links with the Shin Bet. The Knesset then had to pass a specific law preventing anyone pardoning the killer's pardon because Netanyahu, who had stoked up all the anger against Rabin, actually wanted to pardon the killer.

Remember, also, that the Likud party was founded by an actual terrorist.

None of this should be confused with support for the evil Iranian regime; if they were to be wiped off the map, I don't think any of us would shed a tear.

I agree with a lot of the above, I’m no fan of the Netanyahu government.

Israel have been saying for 30 years that Iran were two years from getting nuclear weapons.

Reminds me of nothing more than Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction. Supposed independent observers, funded by the West, were also adamant that they existed in huge quantities. Turns out they didn't.

It's weird how the right wing are adamant that Tony Blair is a 'war criminal' for going into Iraq due to the non-existent WMDs, but are also so quick to believe Bibi when he says Iran has them.

This is a fair point and I don’t think we should blindly believe what Israel says. Iran really does appear to be hiding something though; why not just let the inspectors in?

I also fear what will happen if/when the Iranian regime does fall. Saddam Hussein losing power just left a vacuum for even worse people to fill.

This is another valid concern. Im not convinced though that the Iranian people will swap one lunatic for another. I genuinely think (and hope) they’d take their chance to install some form of democracy.

 

[AlterEgo]

In Gaza, it is of course terrible that so many innocent people are suffering, but terrorists hide among the general population. Israel doesn't have luxury of being able to tolerate terrorism.

Israel is committing a genocide.

 

[nw1]

unfortunately we could realistically find ourselves at war with Iran in the near future

I take your points but why would we find ourselves at war with Iran if we stayed out of the current conflict and condemned both sides? The biggest risk to us IMO is taking sides in this conflict.

We haven't found ourselves at war, as such, with any Middle Eastern country in the past even though some have perhaps sponsored terrorist attacks. Why would it be different now?

The other question is, why is it OK for the Israeli government to bomb residential areas in Tehran? What are they trying to achieve by doing that?