Rather than a big bang, a rolling programme of cumulative upgrades would deliver key benefits early along the way to that timetable tuned for the needs of the nation.
Mr Ableman contemplates how the Swiss approach would have worked in the UK. Planners would have identified that key regional hubs – Birmingham New Street, Leeds, Manchester Piccadilly – are desperately short of decent rail connections from the suburbs because they don’t have enough platform space. They would understand that the line between Coventry and Birmingham has a hopelessly inadequate timetable for the many prospective passengers who live along the route, because suburban trains must share the pair of tracks with intercity expresses.
Across the whole country, to improve the service for millions: “The fast tracks need to be used by slower trains, so the fastest trains need to run somewhere else.”
The Swiss would take those problems and create a timetable that solves them. “And then they’d ask: what infrastructure do we need to make this timetable possible?”
Guess what: the solution to Britain’s rail needs looks rather like HS2.
“However, because they know exactly what they can afford, every year, forever, they could immediately identify that it’s too expensive.
“Because they know what they can afford, they can now value-engineer a version that fits. In the UK, no one really knows how much money the Treasury will be willing to release, or when. In Switzerland, there’s a budget envelope. It’s predictable.
“So having come up with an unaffordable infrastructure plan to deliver a perfect timetable, they’d go back, iterate the timetable, tweak the infrastructure plan and adjust things until it all fits. And then they’d start building.”
“I can’t promise every part will be delivered on-time and on-budget but it’s much more likely,” he writes. “And if something isn’t late, it doesn’t mean that the whole shebang is late – just that one project.”
Mr Ableman’s conclusion is chilling: that the Treasury’s refusal to commit to long-term funding “creates exactly the conditions that make infrastructure expensive”.
Unintentionally, he says, the Treasury is “the biggest driver of waste and inefficiency in UK infrastructure”.