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Could Stansted to Norwich trains be lengthened?

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cle

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This is a bit of an exaggeration, but not much!
Well, only in the context of having a bunch of local stoppers from the north (could do 1 tph Kings Lynn and reallocate a London tph!) - terminate at Ely, would see a lot of people feeding onto the next train to the, then three Cambridge stations.

If things could be turned from the south (other bays?!) - without fouling much, EWR might be a contender at Ely. Although those are short and diesel, so in theory could press on to Norwich.
 
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dk1

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If we're getting the crayons out, then I'd suggest connecting Stansted through to Braintree to allow access from the east.

There are already direct services from London, Cambridge and Norwich, but there's no sensible rail route from Chelmsford or Colchester. It might be preferable to go via Witham if starting at Ipswich, too.
That was one of the original considerations when the station was constructed in the early 90s but nothing came of it.
 

Sad Sprinter

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No it would not be great.

It would be a huge disadvantage for the London-Stansted service with little benefit for Stansted-Cambridge-Norwich, and a very inefficient use of rolling stock.

How can having a through route through the airport be a disadvantage for London to Stansted services? It would make literally no difference at all.

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That was one of the original considerations when the station was constructed in the early 90s but nothing came of it.

Imagine the productivity uplift for East Anglia if we did that.
 

saismee

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It might be preferable to go via Witham if starting at Ipswich, too.
Current Ipswich to Stansted Airport journeys are either:
Ipswich -> London Liverpool Street -> Stansted Airport (quite time consuming and costly, 1 change)
Ipswich -> Cambridge -> Stansted Airport (cheaper but still the same time, 1 change)
Ipswich -> Norwich -> Stansted Airport (even longer, but guarantees a seat and luggage space, 1 change)

I think avoiding London (and its pricing) would be preferable for a lot of users, though I'm not too sure if it'll be a very big flow. The big benefit here is more train space as it would presumably be served by one or two 720s - much longer than a 755!

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How can having a through route through the airport be a disadvantage for London to Stansted services? It would make literally no difference at all.
The 745s are already stretched thin (so thin that there aren't enough of them for the intercity diagrams) so continuing them north towards Norwich to serve 3 stations (Cambridge, Ely, Norwich) just isn't worthwhile. This would also require electrification of the Breckland line, which can't really be justified if the purpose is to not serve the stations. 755s aren't available either as there's still not enough of them, and I don't think 720s will ever run further than Cambridge North again, though I can't think of any reason they wouldn't be able to.
 

dk1

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Current Ipswich to Stansted Airport journeys are either:
Ipswich -> London Liverpool Street -> Stansted Airport (quite time consuming and costly, 1 change)
Ipswich -> Cambridge -> Stansted Airport (cheaper but still the same time, 1 change)
Ipswich -> Norwich -> Stansted Airport (even longer, but guarantees a seat and luggage space, 1 change)

I think avoiding London (and its pricing) would be preferable for a lot of users, though I'm not too sure if it'll be a very big flow. The big benefit here is more train space as it would presumably be served by one or two 720s - much longer than a 755!

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The 745s are already stretched thin (so thin that there aren't enough of them for the intercity diagrams) so continuing them north towards Norwich to serve 3 stations (Cambridge, Ely, Norwich) just isn't worthwhile. This would also require electrification of the Breckland line, which can't really be justified if the purpose is to not serve the stations. 755s aren't available either as there's still not enough of them, and I don't think 720s will ever run further than Cambridge North again, though I can't think of any reason they wouldn't be able to.
720s still reach Ely.
 

Sad Sprinter

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Current Ipswich to Stansted Airport journeys are either:
Ipswich -> London Liverpool Street -> Stansted Airport (quite time consuming and costly, 1 change)
Ipswich -> Cambridge -> Stansted Airport (cheaper but still the same time, 1 change)
Ipswich -> Norwich -> Stansted Airport (even longer, but guarantees a seat and luggage space, 1 change)

I think avoiding London (and its pricing) would be preferable for a lot of users, though I'm not too sure if it'll be a very big flow. The big benefit here is more train space as it would presumably be served by one or two 720s - much longer than a 755!

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The 745s are already stretched thin (so thin that there aren't enough of them for the intercity diagrams) so continuing them north towards Norwich to serve 3 stations (Cambridge, Ely, Norwich) just isn't worthwhile. This would also require electrification of the Breckland line, which can't really be justified if the purpose is to not serve the stations. 755s aren't available either as there's still not enough of them, and I don't think 720s will ever run further than Cambridge North again, though I can't think of any reason they wouldn't be able to.

I didn’t know the 745s were so thin, I was talking more theoretically anyway. So you think the former GER will never reach Kings Lynn again?
 

dk1

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I didn’t know the 745s were so thin, I was talking more theoretically anyway. So you think the former GER will never reach Kings Lynn again?
755s cover a daily diagram on the GEML and 720s cover the Stansted Express. Twenty units were never going to realistically cover it.
 

Zomboid

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Twenty units were never going to realistically cover it.
I never understand how we keep doing this kind of thing, ordering not quite enough units to do the job.

Really GA needed to order 22 or 23. Or look at LNER, they're a few units short of being able to run exclusively 80xs, but they've had to keep a few 91 sets and will soon have a microfleet of 897s.

At least there are 755s and 720s to cover, I guess.
 

Adrian1980uk

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I never understand how we keep doing this kind of thing, ordering not quite enough units to do the job.

Really GA needed to order 22 or 23. Or look at LNER, they're a few units short of being able to run exclusively 80xs, but they've had to keep a few 91 sets and will soon have a microfleet of 897s.

At least there are 755s and 720s to cover, I guess.
Realistically they needed 12 minimum for the intercity alone, there were 15 90s and mark 3 sets, for Stansted they probably needed 12 as well so 25 would probably have a been the right number. Past is past though and until there is need for more InterCity services (not far off at peak now) there won't be any change - given they're publicly owned they will just cover Stansted with more 720s and switch the 745s to IC as there won't be any care about the consistency of product.
 

dk1

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I never understand how we keep doing this kind of thing, ordering not quite enough units to do the job.

Really GA needed to order 22 or 23. Or look at LNER, they're a few units short of being able to run exclusively 80xs, but they've had to keep a few 91 sets and will soon have a microfleet of 897s.

At least there are 755s and 720s to cover, I guess.
If you go back to 2016 then it has been stated internally that Hitachi would’ve been the preferred bidder but couldn’t deliver in the timescale due to existing commitments to other new train orders namely GWR and LNER. For this reason Stadler was chosen for bimodes but the order wasn’t big enough. To satisfy this the StanEx & Intercity build was awarded to them.
 

Sad Sprinter

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If you go back to 2016 then it has been stated internally that Hitachi would’ve been the preferred bidder but couldn’t deliver in the timescale due to existing commitments to other new train orders namely GWR and LNER. For this reason Stadler was chosen for bimodes but the order wasn’t big enough. To satisfy this the StanEx & Intercity build was awarded to them.

Couldn’t Bombardier have done a follow on order of 387s?
 

Adrian1980uk

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Hadn’t that build stopped years before? What good would that be for the bimodal fleet?
Given the feedback, the Stadlers were the best option anyway, just not enough ordered.

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The earlier cock up isn't really fixable as you can't really go back to Stadler and order 5 more
 

dk1

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Given the feedback, the Stadlers were the best option anyway, just not enough ordered.

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The earlier cock up isn't really fixable as you can't really go back to Stadler and order 5 more
We are absolutely blessed to have them now :wub:
 

Magdalia

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How can having a through route through the airport be a disadvantage for London to Stansted services? It would make literally no difference at all.
It makes a huge difference. Let me remind you of some key features of the Stansted Express.

Liverpool Street-Stansted Airport is the biggest flow on the railway with one station out of London, and number 5 overall, behind only 4 pairs of Elizabeth Line Stations.

It has a dedicated fleet of 10*12 car trains for 9 diagrams, with appropriate luggage space for airport traffic. These operate a 4tph service on a congested 2 track railway.

Large number of passengers, usually with luggage, board at both ends, getting onto waiting trains in order to ensure an on time departure.

All of that falls down under your proposal.

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The 745s are already stretched thin (so thin that there aren't enough of them for the intercity diagrams)
My understanding is that, when the class 745 order was placed, there was supposed to be sufficient acceleration in the Liverpool Street-Norwich schedules to run the basic 2tph serve with 8 units, not 9.
 

Trainbike46

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755s cover a daily diagram on the GEML and 720s cover the Stansted Express. Twenty units were never going to realistically cover it.
Covering 9 StanEx diagrams and 10 IC diagrams with 20 units with 2 different interiors was always rather enthusiastic.

Even if the plans for a recast to 9 StanEx and 8/9 IC diagrams had happened, that might still have been a bit tight!
 

Magdalia

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I have been thinking more about this, and have a counter-intuitive question about the Stansted Airport platforms.

What could happen if platform 2 was taken out? How long could platforms 1 and 3 then be?
 

Brubulus

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My understanding is that, when the class 745 order was placed, there was supposed to be sufficient acceleration in the Liverpool Street-Norwich schedules to run the basic 2tph serve with 8 units, not 9.
This is correct, however would require the long awaited recast to actually happen, even though there has been ample time for it.

If this was the case (or 720s were used on the Norwich peak extra) this would enable the remaining 755s to operate Birmingham-Stansted, though it would stretch the remainder of the fleet thin.

However a 4 car 755 provides effectively no capacity benefit over a 3 car turbostar, though it would enable the better distribution of Turbostars across the network, potentially enabling the strengthening of EMR and remaining cross country Turbostar services.
 

William3000

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Whilst anecdotal, does that kind of thing not make the case for direct trains?

I don't know if there's anything special about Leicester that would mean it has significantly greater or less demand for travel to/from Cambridge than Nottingham, but I'd bet the Cambridge to Nottingham passenger numbers are dwarfed by those to Leicester.
What I find interesting is that Cambridge to Norwich figures are 7 times greater than Cambridge to Leicester. Leicester is slightly further but also significantly larger than Norwich, but both have direct trains.

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You are wrong, Cambridge-Nottingham is 11.3k, ahead of Cambridge-Leicester at 10.7k, even with the penalty of having to change trains. Note that Cambridge-Leicester is also behind Edinburgh and York.

For comparing overall size of flows, with no assumptions about routes, Cambridge-Sheffield is 8.5k, Cambridge-Manchester is 8.8k for Picc and 2.8k for Vic, while Cambridge-Liverpool is only 1.9k.

My anecdote doesn't make the case for direct trains, no anecdote can do that. The evidence from the data for Cambridge is that the value of direct trains for long distance journeys is greatly exaggerated. Cambridge has similar numbers of long distance passengers to/from a multitude of destinations, a few with direct trains but most others requiring a change, many at Peterborough. There is no prospect of providing direct trains for all flows of that size. A robust and reliable Peterborough-Cambridge-Stansted service, preferably 2tph, and primarily for the much larger numbers of shorter distance passengers, would also be much more beneficial for the majority of long distance passengers, who are already changing trains.

Getting back to the topic of Norwich-Ely-Cambridge, more capacity is more important than more frequency, because a smaller proportion of passengers are on journeys where they are changing trains. Ideally that would be with longer trains, if Stansted Airport could be resolved. With regard to frequency, the experience on the Kings Lynn line is instructive. Since covid the Kings Lynn line has had longer trains with 1tph off peak and 2tph peak; it works well there and I think it would work for Cambridge-Norwich too.

The quick win is to find Greater Anglia some paths to/from Norwich that make use of the class 755 that currently sits idle at Cambridge during the peaks, because they don't have peak time paths to Stansted. In the morning the 1014 Cambridge-Norwich is off the previous evening's 2112 Norwich-Cambridge; in the evening the 1627 Norwich-Cambridge does nothing until 2120 Cambridge-Norwich. It is bonkers that these sit idle at Cambridge through the Cambridge commuting peaks.
I find that interesting that a quarter of passenger from Cambridge travel to Manchester Victoria rather than Manchester Piccadilly. I often do it because it’s actually quite straightforward with a change at York or Leeds but I’m surprised it’s as many as it is as a proportion.

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There is apparently a campaign group slowly grinding away on the idea of re-opening the line through Haverhill and also accommodating Colchester-Cambridge Connectivity that way. I don't think EWR's planned remodelling of Shepreth Branch Junction accommodates this however, but the ideas are out there and talked about at the councillor level.
However at the same time, someone once told me that Stansted Station is built with passive provision for becoming a through station at least in some vague way. Shame they gave it a silly single track tunnel
If Stansted ever were to have direct access east, I wouldn’t imagine it would make much sense to have trains running through it other than clearing platform space. But having the Stansted Express trains there means the platforms can be cleared quickly.

I would imagine it would be better simply to extend the London to Braintree’s westwards to Great Dunmow and Stansted Airport with some east facing bays. For passengers from Chelmsford, Clacton and Ipswich, it would probably involve changing at Witham because I can’t see paths being made available for a Stansted to Ipswich service.

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It makes a huge difference. Let me remind you of some key features of the Stansted Express.

Liverpool Street-Stansted Airport is the biggest flow on the railway with one station out of London, and number 5 overall, behind only 4 pairs of Elizabeth Line Stations.

It has a dedicated fleet of 10*12 car trains for 9 diagrams, with appropriate luggage space for airport traffic. These operate a 4tph service on a congested 2 track railway.

Large number of passengers, usually with luggage, board at both ends, getting onto waiting trains in order to ensure an on time departure.

All of that falls down under your proposal.

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My understanding is that, when the class 745 order was placed, there was supposed to be sufficient acceleration in the Liverpool Street-Norwich schedules to run the basic 2tph serve with 8 units, not 9.
I agree with you but presumably the opposite happens with Gatwick where trains do continue on to Gatwick. Does that set up course problems or is the Stansted situation more preferable? Obviously Gatwick has double the passengers of Stansted by rail, and Brighton is about 50% busier than Cambridge
 
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saismee

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720s still reach Ely.
Interesting, is this a peak time-only thing? That would explain why I've never noticed. I wish they still ran all the way to King's Lynn so I could avoid GN as much as possible, as much as I dislike the 720s.
Given the feedback, the Stadlers were the best option anyway, just not enough ordered.

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The earlier cock up isn't really fixable as you can't really go back to Stadler and order 5 more
Maybe a few more could be ordered with some 755/3 to 4 upgrades. All the designs and software are ready, just need to actually build them.

But I agree that the Stadlers are perfect, especially for loading luggage with the low floor.
I would imagine it would be better simply to extend the London to Braintree’s westwards to Great Dunmow and Stansted Airport with some east facing bays. For passengers from Chelmsford, Clacton and Ipswich, it would probably involve changing at Witham because I can’t see paths being made available for a Stansted to Ipswich service.
Ipswich doesn't really have the platform space either, certainly not for an extra 720 (single unit or double) service. It'd still be decently faster than the existing routes, so it would be preferable to changing at Liverpool Street, Cambridge, or Norwich.
 

dk1

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Interesting, is this a peak time-only thing? That would explain why I've never noticed. I wish they still ran all the way to King's Lynn so I could avoid GN as much as possible, as much as I dislike the 720s.
Yes it’s peak times only. I can’t even see GBR a few years down the line operating to Lynn. The GN services were always far busier.
 

Trainbike46

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I have been thinking more about this, and have a counter-intuitive question about the Stansted Airport platforms.

What could happen if platform 2 was taken out? How long could platforms 1 and 3 then be?
That is an interesting suggestion, if you can extend them by four cars each that would be a net increase in platform capactiy. Though I dread to imagine what a 20-car platform looks like!
 

Magdalia

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Interesting, is this a peak time-only thing? That would explain why I've never noticed. I wish they still ran all the way to King's Lynn

Yes it’s peak times only. I can’t even see GBR a few years down the line operating to Lynn. The GN services were always far busier.
Up to the 1980s Kings Lynn-London trains ran/to from Liverpool Street, and it was also the primary route for Cambridge. Between 1978 and 1988 there were no through trains Cambridge-Kings Cross, never mind Kings Lynn.

That all changed in the early 1990s with electrification north of Cambridge and the opening of the Stansted Airport branch.

When through services between London and Kings Lynn were resumed in 1992 they were mostly to/from Kings Cross, but a few peak time Liverpool Street trains were resurrected, mainly for commuters going to/from City of London financial district. They were retained at privatisation but usage dwindled over time, it was quicker to get to/from Liverpool Street going via Kings Cross.

After privatisation the Liverpool Street-Kings Lynn trains got very inefficient and expensive to operate because only the franchise running Kings Cross trains had drivers at Kings Lynn. Drivers of the Liverpool Street trains were based at Cambridge and needed ECS or taxi moves to balance up.

I think the Liverpool Street-Kings Lynn trains were never restored after the covid pandemic. As far as I'm aware class 720s have never worked to/from Kings Lynn.

Kings Lynn now has a regular interval 2tph peak time service, all with Kings Cross trains. The draft 2025 East Coast timetable shows that this will continue into the future.

What I find interesting is that Cambridge to Norwich figures are 7 times greater than Cambridge to Leicester. Leicester is slightly further but also significantly larger than Norwich, but both have direct trains.
This neatly demonstrates my point that the shorter distance East Anglia flows are far more important than the longer distance flows. Many more people want to travel within East Anglia than to get in or out.
I find that interesting that a quarter of passenger from Cambridge travel to Manchester Victoria rather than Manchester Piccadilly. I often do it because it’s actually quite straightforward with a change at York or Leeds but I’m surprised it’s as many as it is as a proportion.
I was intrigued by this too, and have been trying to work out what is going on. I suspect that the data is for "Manchester BR" and there is a simple %age split between Piccadilly, Victoria and Oxford Road. The same is possibly happening in Liverpool with Lime Street and Central.

simply to extend the London to Braintree’s westwards to Great Dunmow and Stansted Airport
This is definitely not simple. Much of the old trackbed is now the Flitch Way, and in Dunmow the route has disappeared, partly through road construction and partly through demolition of the viaduct over the River Chelmer. That's without even thinking about how to get into the airport from that side.

I agree with you but presumably the opposite happens with Gatwick where trains do continue on to Gatwick. Does that set up course problems
You make a valid point about Gatwick. Fortunately the Thameslink class 700s are 8tph to the core and particularly well designed for airport traffic, plus another 8tph to Victoria. Whereas Gatwick has separate options for the City and West End, both at 8tph, at Stansted everyone for London is on the same train, and it is only 4tph.
 

Zomboid

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This neatly demonstrates my point that the shorter distance East Anglia flows are far more important than the longer distance flows. Many more people want to travel within East Anglia than to get in or out.
I can understand to a point, but Cambridge is not some insular rural bumpkinshire local trains for local people place. I don't see why people travelling to or from Cambridge are 7x more likely to want to go to Norwich than Leicester - so it's probable that people going to Norwich are much more likely to choose rail than people going to Leicester. Why?

Based on the next departures as of now, Norwich is about 1h15 away (0913-1029) whilst Leicester is 1h50 (0900-1050). An anytime single is £75.20 for 72 miles (driving distance) to Leicester, whilst Norwich is £35 for 64 road miles. (Off peak it's £54 vs £22, and only Leicester has an on the day advance which is £33.70 for the 1000 departure).

So I suspect that substantially higher fares are suppressing demand on the Leicester route far more than there simply being 7x more demand for trips to Norwich. The journey time to Leicester being much less competitive compared to driving won't help with that, either.
 
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Trainbike46

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I can understand to a point, but Cambridge is not some insular rural bumpkinshire local trains for local people place. I don't see why people travelling to or from Cambridge are 7x more likely to want to go to Norwich than Leicester - so it's probable that people going to Norwich are much more likely to choose rail than people going to Leicester. Why?

Based on the next departures as of now, Norwich is about 1h15 away (0913-1029) whilst Leicester is 1h50 (0900-1050). An anytime single is £75.20 for 72 miles (driving distance) to Leicester, whilst Norwich is £35 for 64 road miles. (Off peak it's £54 vs £22, and only Leicester has an on the day advance which is £33.70 for the 1000 departure).

So I suspect that substantially higher fares are suppressing demand on the Leicester route far more than there simply being 7x more demand for trips to Norwich. The journey time to Leicester being much less competitive compared to driving won't help with that, either.
I suspect links between the universities of Cambridge and UEA in Norwich, as well as the various research institutes, cause stronger links between those two than with Leicester*

Research Institute wise, just in the wider plant science and agriculture field, there is NIAB, the Sainsbury Lab Cambridge University, and the Cambridge Crop Science centre in Cambridge. Norwich has the John Innes Centre, the Sainsbury Lab Norwich.

On a personal note, when I lived in Cambridge I did visit Norwich, yet I never went and never considered going to Leicester.

Also, isn't every flow two-way? So the higher numbers could be from people from Norwich travelling to Cambridge?

*I am aware Leicester has a university, but the links between UEA and Cambridge are stronger than between Leicester and Cambridge
** You are right though that travel time and cost likely also play a role
 

Magdalia

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I can understand to a point, but Cambridge is not some insular rural bumpkinshire local trains for local people place. I don't see why people travelling to or from Cambridge are 7x more likely to want to go to Norwich than Leicester - so it's probable that people going to Norwich are much more likely to choose rail than people going to Leicester. Why?
You are looking at it only from one end, and the wrong end.

Also, isn't every flow two-way? So the higher numbers could be from people from Norwich travelling to Cambridge?

The Norwich-Cambridge flow is 7x bigger than the Leicester-Cambridge flow because many more Norwich people want to come to Cambridge compared with Leicester people. Cambridge is one of the fastest growing local economies in the UK, and almost certainly the fastest growing in East Anglia. This is about facilitating travel from the places where people want to come to Cambridge, and where they need to come to Cambridge to help the economy to grow. That's places like Norwich, not places like Leicester. People from Leicester are much more interested in going to other closer places such as Nottingham, Birmingham, Derby and Sheffield. From Norwich, Cambridge is the 5th most important destination, from Leicester, Cambridge is 33rd.

The journey time to Leicester being much less competitive compared to driving won't help with that, either.
Norwich-Cambridge rail journey times do not compete with road either. Getting to Cambridge from Norwich or Leicester are quite similar in that in both cases the road route is about 15-20% shorter than the rail route.
 

Zomboid

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I don't doubt that Norwich and Cambridge has a larger overall flow between them then Leicester and Cambridge, but I would like to see some proper evidence of the other modes before I accept that it's by a factor of seven.
 
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I don't dispute the data, but making a decision about rail services purely on interpretations of current travel data seems unwise to me. Transport policies are supposed to be about creating options and possibilities proactively rather than only reacting to a current situation. I think the insights about the difference in price between the two journeys is quite important as is the knowledge most have that an XC service is more likely to be late or crowded. The different market could play a factor too, in that employment in the science/research sector may account for a lot of travel between Norwich and Cambridge, whereas people going towards the midlands may be less well accommodated by rail than a single person commuting.

I don't necessarily disagree about splitting up Stansted-Birmingham trains for the benefit of being able to increase frequencies on more local East Anglian services. But I think you'd need targeted infrastructure investments like Leicester remodelling, perhaps more platforms at Peterborough, electrification/re-signalling so that those kinds of cross-regional journeys can be made more reliable. People are generally averse to changing trains because of the risk that delays and unreliability present, both they don't avoid it - say - within London where most rail services are frequent and reliable. Just because it's the 33rd rail destination doesn't mean the railway should make that journey its 33rd priority.
 

Adrian1980uk

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I can understand to a point, but Cambridge is not some insular rural bumpkinshire local trains for local people place. I don't see why people travelling to or from Cambridge are 7x more likely to want to go to Norwich than Leicester - so it's probable that people going to Norwich are much more likely to choose rail than people going to Leicester. Why?

Based on the next departures as of now, Norwich is about 1h15 away (0913-1029) whilst Leicester is 1h50 (0900-1050). An anytime single is £75.20 for 72 miles (driving distance) to Leicester, whilst Norwich is £35 for 64 road miles. (Off peak it's £54 vs £22, and only Leicester has an on the day advance which is £33.70 for the 1000 departure).

So I suspect that substantially higher fares are suppressing demand on the Leicester route far more than there simply being 7x more demand for trips to Norwich. The journey time to Leicester being much less competitive compared to driving won't help with that, either.

I suspect links between the universities of Cambridge and UEA in Norwich, as well as the various research institutes, cause stronger links between those two than with Leicester*

Research Institute wise, just in the wider plant science and agriculture field, there is NIAB, the Sainsbury Lab Cambridge University, and the Cambridge Crop Science centre in Cambridge. Norwich has the John Innes Centre, the Sainsbury Lab Norwich.

On a personal note, when I lived in Cambridge I did visit Norwich, yet I never went and never considered going to Leicester.

Also, isn't every flow two-way? So the higher numbers could be from people from Norwich travelling to Cambridge?

*I am aware Leicester has a university, but the links between UEA and Cambridge are stronger than between Leicester and Cambridge
** You are right though that travel time and cost likely also play a role
Also Norwich has very limited options for destinations compared with Leicester given that travelling east is not an option from Norwich, you get very wet in the north sea.
 
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