Grand Central Cleethorpes - Kings Cross - Application to ORR

[DarloRich]

North-East and North Lincolnshire has a combined population of 326,600 - greater than Derby or Nottingham and not far short of Leicester. Also greater than Hull, Middlesbrough and Sunderland. It must be one of the largest population centres in England without a direct service to London. The service the area's had to put up with for the last 30 years is a joke - overcrowded DMUs, no catering, a connection at Doncaster that's little better than a lottery. Journey times (when the connection does work) are scarcely better than 50 years ago when there were four direct trains a day to Grimsby and Cleethorpes (on a train with 10 coaches including a buffet and restaurant!)

The places you mention are individual locations while "north east and north" Lincolnshire is a wide ranging rural/costal area with low population densities and little or no work beyond agriculture. Taking the locations individually, Grimsby has a population of c.86K, Cleethorpes 30K and Scunny 81K. Sunderland alone is c168K.

Is there economic activity in those towns to support a direct service to London? I suggest not.

(I also note that North-East Lincolnshire is one of the few places in England whose population actually fell between the censuses of 2011 and 2021, so the economic development of the area is clearly not being helped by the transport situation.)

Transport links are not what is "holding" Lincolnshire back. It has got a direct motorway link to the M1 for goodness sake. It even has an airport ( it isn't a well served one but it is one - Surely the lack of a London flight is indicative here?)

A direct train service to London wont improve the local economy beyond the most marginal level.

The steel works is going to close which will have a devasting impact on the local economy and that wont be fixed by a train to London! Immingham is a massive port but how many people actually work there? How many will be left at British Steel? How many of the connected businesses are going to survive when the works closes? How is a train to London going to fix any of that?

 

[Grimsby town]

The places you mention are individual locations while "north east and north" Lincolnshire is a wide ranging rural/costal area with low population densities and little or no work beyond agriculture. Taking the locations individually, Grimsby has a population of c.86K, Cleethorpes 30K and Scunny 81K. Sunderland alone is c168K.

Is there economic activity in those towns to support a direct service to London? I suggest not.

Although there's a lot of large villages that aren't classed as part of Grimsby or Cleethorpes. The likes of New Waltham and Holton-le-Clay for example which have populations of over 5,000k. There's 157k people within a 10km radius of Grimsby Town Station.

Sunderland is a much larger city than Grimsby or Scunthorpe but it's also very well connected to frequent London services at Durham and Newcastle. I've got family who live in East Sunderland and worked for a few years in London, they travelled via Durham instead of using GC.

It's a chicken and the egg situation, people say there isn't the economic activity. I'd disagree anyway. Most of the population work in the large towns and not in agriculture. Grimsby/Immingham is one of the largest ports in the UK, Scunthorpe Steel works, food processing and manufacture in Grimsby, and an increasingly large renewable sector including offshore wind.

You could make the same argument for Hull. It's bigger than Grimsby/Cleethorpes/Scunthorpe (although not significantly bigger than the combined population) but doesn't have much going for it in terms of economics. It doesn't have the oil refineries, it has a far smaller port, it's not got food manufacturing but does have pharmaceuticals. Yet it's managed to support 8 daily London services. That suggests Grimsby could support 4.

Transport links are not what is "holding" Lincolnshire back. It has got a direct motorway link to the M1 for goodness sake. It even has an airport ( it isn't a well served one but it is one - Surely the lack of a London flight is indicative here?)

A direct train service to London wont improve the local economy beyond the most marginal level.

The steel works is going to close which will have a devasting impact on the local economy and that wont be fixed by a train to London! Immingham is a massive port but how many people actually work there? How many will be left at British Steel? How many of the connected businesses are going to survive when the works closes? How is a train to London going to fix any of that?

A train service to London wont fix everything but I completely disagree that the area doesn't suffer from poor transport links. It's one of the reasons i left the town and would never go back. Its too slow to get to major cities and the frequency of rail is pretty poor compared to other areas. The motorway relies on having a car which large parts of the town don't have. Driving isn't much use for accessing major city centre either for business.

 

[norbitonflyer]

Transport links are not what is "holding" Lincolnshire back. It has got a direct motorway link to the M1 for goodness sake.

Although useful for reaching Yorkshire and beyond, like the rail route, the motorway route is very circuitous if heading for London - going via Lincoln and the A1 is 40 miles shorter and, despite the 50-limited and single carriageway A15, takes no longer than using the motorway.

 

[Puffing Devil]

It's a solution looking for a problem. (De)coupling trains at Doncaster is merely changing at Doncaster without getting off a train.

I really can't see the need for it other than to bolster a little civic pride. Using the airport as a guide to business and leisure travel demand, there is very little.

One direct train back in the evening will struggle to compete with an hourly-ish indirect service from KGX.

 

[John R]

It's a solution looking for a problem. (De)coupling trains at Doncaster is merely changing at Doncaster without getting off a train.

Not if you are elderly, have large suitcases, pushchairs, are disabled or otherwise have limited movement. And moreover for everyone you are not reliant on both services by two different operators running to time.

 

[Puffing Devil]

Not if you are elderly, have large suitcases, pushchairs, are disabled or otherwise have limited movement. And moreover for everyone you are not reliant on both services by two different operators running to time.

Not enough of those pax to warrant the service, I'm afraid.

I'm prepared to be proven wrong, though I'm sure it will be unsustainable after the novelty wears off.

 

[357]

(De)coupling trains at Doncaster is merely changing at Doncaster without getting off a train.

Erm, no it isn't?

It is two services to different places that simply share a path and a driver from London.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Apr 2025 ==

Not enough of those pax to warrant the service, I'm afraid.

I'm prepared to be proven wrong, though I'm sure it will be unsustainable after the novelty wears off.

I think you'll be surprised how many people will go for a direct train - the West Riding and Sunderland services always have reasonable loadings even from stations such as Bradford where it is faster to change at Leeds.

 

[Puffing Devil]

Erm, no it isn't?

It is two services to different places that simply share a path and a driver from London.

Which then split at Doncaster. New drivers. Train leaves after a ten-minute delay. May as well change trains.

I think you'll be surprised how many people will go for a direct train - the West Riding and Sunderland services always have reasonable loadings even from stations such as Bradford where it is faster to change at Leeds.

They also have populations 2 to 3 times the size of the Grimsby/Cleethorpes Area

 

[Grimsby town]

Not enough of those pax to warrant the service, I'm afraid.

I'm prepared to be proven wrong, though I'm sure it will be unsustainable after the novelty wears off

So how can Hull and Lincoln justify a London service? Hull is a large city but it isn't that much larger than Scunthorpe, Grimsby and Cleethorpes combined (around 200k vs 300k). Hull has a fairly similar economy to North Lincolnshire too. Yet Hull has 8 trains per day and North Lincolnshire has zero.

They also have populations 2 to 3 times the size of the Grimsby/Cleethorpes Area

But as a pointed out earlier in the thread, Bradford and Sunderland have better connections to Leeds and Newcastle than North Lincolnshire has to Doncaster. It's quicker to change trains at Leeds/Newcastle than use Grand Central and yet Grand Central have made that work. Even with a 10 minute wait at Doncaster, the proposed GC service will be the quickest way to London.

 

[357]

Which then split at Doncaster. New drivers. Train leaves after a ten-minute delay. May as well change trains.

Many trains have recovery time built in at Doncaster anyway. I don't think it would be noticed, especially when people can use that ten minutes continuing to work on their laptop or talking and drinking with friends.

You might not have an issue changing but many with luggage, young children or who are unfamiliar with the railway would prefer to stay in their seat and not have the hassle.

 

[800001]

Many trains have recovery time built in at Doncaster anyway. I don't think it would be noticed, especially when people can use that ten minutes continuing to work on their laptop or talking and drinking with friends.

You might not have an issue changing but many with luggage, young children or who are unfamiliar with the railway would prefer to stay in their seat and not have the hassle.

Especially if the connecting train comes in on platform 0 at Doncaster!

 

[Puffing Devil]

Many trains have recovery time built in at Doncaster anyway. I don't think it would be noticed, especially when people can use that ten minutes continuing to work on their laptop or talking and drinking with friends.

You might not have an issue changing but many with luggage, young children or who are unfamiliar with the railway would prefer to stay in their seat and not have the hassle.

Especially if the connecting train comes in on platform 0 at Doncaster!

As I said earlier, this collection of passengers will not fill a train, and certainly not with premium fares.

 

[357]

As I said earlier, this collection of passengers will not fill a train, and certainly not with premium fares.

Trains don't always fill up at the first couple of stations - it's the route that needs to be profitable in it's entirety.

For example, just because a train might not be full and standing leaving Bradford doesn't mean the entire West Riding route should be closed down!

 

[Donny Dave]

So how can Hull and Lincoln justify a London service? Hull is a large city but it isn't that much larger than Scunthorpe, Grimsby and Cleethorpes combined (around 200k vs 300k). Hull has a fairly similar economy to North Lincolnshire too. Yet Hull has 8 trains per day and North Lincolnshire has zero.


But as a pointed out earlier in the thread, Bradford and Sunderland have better connections to Leeds and Newcastle than North Lincolnshire has to Doncaster. It's quicker to change trains at Leeds/Newcastle than use Grand Central and yet Grand Central have made that work. Even with a 10 minute wait at Doncaster, the proposed GC service will be the quickest way to London.

Hull and Lincoln have large, established universities, which help boost passenger numbers. Also, they both have large prisons, again these help boost passenger numbers, due to families going to visit prisoners. North (east) Lincolnshire lacks these. Additionally, there are more (and better) tourist attractions in and around Hull and Lincoln.

Secondly, Hull serves as a railhead for other services, particularly from the Yorkshire and along the banks of the Humber, including the South Bank. It is quicker and easier to get to Hull in order to catch the train from Barton Upon Humber than it is to get to Scunthorpe.

There is already an hourly service between Cleethorpes, Grimsby and Scunthorpe to Doncaster, and due to TPE changing the diagrams there is plenty of spare capacity. I've just looked at the timetable for Doncaster on RTT, and seen that the service from Cleethorpes arrives at xx38, with a service from Harrogate or Leeds to London departing at xx48, or ex Edinburgh service at xx55, so the highlighted part of the post may not be entirely accurate. Heading to Scunthorpe, Grimsby or Cleethorpes, I concede that GC will be quicker, as the services from London arrive at Doncaster at xx08 (to Newcastle/Edinburgh) and xx13 (to Leeds/Harrogate), but as the TPE departs at xx37, I still think there is good connectivity to North Lincolnshire with only marginal time to be saved.

 

[357]

There is already an hourly service between Cleethorpes, Grimsby and Scunthorpe to Doncaster, and due to TPE changing the diagrams there is plenty of spare capacity. I've just looked at the timetable for Doncaster on RTT, and seen that the service from Cleethorpes arrives at xx38, with a service from Harrogate or Leeds to London departing at xx48, or ex Edinburgh service at xx55, so the highlighted part of the post may not be entirely accurate. Heading to Scunthorpe, Grimsby or Cleethorpes, I concede that GC will be quicker, as the services from London arrive at Doncaster at xx08 (to Newcastle/Edinburgh) and xx13 (to Leeds/Harrogate), but as the TPE departs at xx37, I still think there is good connectivity to North Lincolnshire with only marginal time to be saved.

From December the LNER from Doncaster to London is at xx:10 or xx:40 and Northbound at xx:17/xx:47

 

[Iskra]

Which then split at Doncaster. New drivers. Train leaves after a ten-minute delay. May as well change trains.



They also have populations 2 to 3 times the size of the Grimsby/Cleethorpes Area

There’s Scunthorpe too of course.

I think these services will do well. Doncaster-London Kings Cross alone is already a successful and established flow for GC, so I don’t think there will be any problems filling trains South of there. From my experiences TPE and Northern trains are popular between Doncaster and Scunthorpe and for TPE they are busy all the way to Cleethorpes especially in the summer, at weekends, Monday and Friday hotel changeover days and when there’s football on. I’ve no doubt that these trains will attract new custom and a link to London will be well received. I think this route has more going for it than the GC Blackpool route and it’s not taking up any additional paths South of Doncaster so that’s a big plus. A call at Peterborough may assist passenger numbers even more, I’m not sure whether that is part of the plan however.

 

[Grimsby town]

Hull and Lincoln have large, established universities, which help boost passenger numbers. Also, they both have large prisons, again these help boost passenger numbers, due to families going to visit prisoners. North (east) Lincolnshire lacks these. Additionally, there are more (and better) tourist attractions in and around Hull and Lincoln.

I agree with the universities. They'll definitely generate additional long distance trips compared to the higher education establishments in Scunthorpe/Grimsby. The prisons are for local courts and not near stations so not particularly relevant. Tourism is actually higher in North East Lincolnshire than Hull or Lincoln. Lincoln has the Castle/Cathedral that are probably a national draw though.

Secondly, Hull serves as a railhead for other services, particularly from the Yorkshire and along the banks of the Humber, including the South Bank. It is quicker and easier to get to Hull in order to catch the train from Barton Upon Humber than it is to get to Scunthorpe.

I agree that Hull is more of railhead than Grimsby for a slightly higher population but at the same time Grimsby is a rail head for the Lincolnshire Coast and in particular Louth. I'll also come back to my earlier point that the proposal is for 4 services per day and not 8 like Hull and Lincoln get. They both might generate more journeys to London than Grimsby/Scunthorpe but I doubt they generate significantly over double so train loadings are likely to be similar.

There is already an hourly service between Cleethorpes, Grimsby and Scunthorpe to Doncaster, and due to TPE changing the diagrams there is plenty of spare capacity. I've just looked at the timetable for Doncaster on RTT, and seen that the service from Cleethorpes arrives at xx38, with a service from Harrogate or Leeds to London departing at xx48, or ex Edinburgh service at xx55, so the highlighted part of the post may not be entirely accurate. Heading to Scunthorpe, Grimsby or Cleethorpes, I concede that GC will be quicker, as the services from London arrive at Doncaster at xx08 (to Newcastle/Edinburgh) and xx13 (to Leeds/Harrogate), but as the TPE departs at xx37, I still think there is good connectivity to North Lincolnshire with only marginal time to be saved.

But the GC trains are non-stop from Doncaster. My point was that GC from Bradford is around 30 mins slower than changing at Leeds. Yet they've made that market work. At least Cleethorpes to London will actually be competitive with changing trains at Doncaster.

 

[Galaxy]

I use the train most times a week from Scunthorpe to various exotic locations(!) and for the most part the outward journey is without issue now TransPennine Express have got their act together and most services are six-car vice the previous three which can be getting rather cosy by Doncaster and even worse at Sheffield.

The return journeys can be quite frustrating due to delays and missed connections at Doncaster and on many occasions I've needed to spend a fair amount of time at the station due to this, so any direct service for London and return would be most welcome, especially after a Southampton commute to know you're going "home" when sat on the cushions in the trainshed at King's Cross and I'd imagine I'm not alone here. Plus, the benefit of even a handful of extra services to North Lincolnshire, even if joining at Doncaster, would be a bonus to know you're not putting all your eggs in one basket with TransPennine Express.

That said (and please allow a slight off-topic here), I would probably welcome the return of the hourly stopping service between Doncaster and Scunthorpe which then alleviates the issue of TransPennine Express running late. A true half-hourly service between Doncaster and North / North East Lincolnshire would be very welcome, but as likely these days as a lottery win, so I'll stick with giving my support to Grand Central!

 

[norbitonflyer]

The prisons are for local courts and not near stations so not particularly relevant.

Geography is only one consideration in determining where a prisoner ends up. Category and capacity are also factors. Lincoln, as a category B prison, takes prisoners from a wide area (John Poulson, Jeffrey Archer and Eamon de Valera are former inmates, none have local connections)

And Lincoln prison is only a mile and a half from the station - I have walked from the station to the County Hospital, which is across the road from the prison, or to my late parents' house, which is about the same distance, many times.

 

[Grimsby town]

Geography is only one consideration in determining where a prisoner ends up. Category and capacity are also factors. Lincoln, as a category B prison, takes prisoners from a wide area (John Poulson, Jeffrey Archer and Eamon de Valera are former inmates, none have local connections)

And Lincoln prison is only a mile and a half from the station - I have walked from the station to the County Hospital, which is across the road from the prison, or to my late parents' house, which is about the same distance, many times.

But the wider area doesn't include courts in London so isn't going to be particularly relevant to demand for a rail service to London.