UK switching to electric vehicles discussion

[Sun Chariot]

As inflation is exponential, in general, costs will increase expexponetially

I hope it doesn't, else we'll all become penniless, car-less and homeless.

https://mathinsight.org/exponential_function

 

[bspahh]

As inflation is exponential, in general, costs will increase exponetially.

The problem is that infinity is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-bogglingly big it is. Even exponential growth will never get anywhere near it.

 

[AM9]

In this case, I support the pedantry. There is too much misuse of this term in that way.

I agree, another case of a word misused by the popular press in headlines trying to grab the attention of readers who don't understand the meaning of the word, and perpetuate the error when posting on social media.

 

[Mawkie]

I hope they aren't actually exponential. Else the rate of price increase will grow faster in each moment, until each public charge will be an infinite cost...

You started a scintillating discussion on the word exponential (not).

I took your post for what it was, a humorous observation, but I wonder how many of the subsequent contributers were genuinely confused by my (mis)use of the word and had no idea what I meant, so baffled they were left in a fog!

Language evolves, and people who don't evolve with it can seem petty, particularly on an internet forum. This isn't a peer reviewed journal!

I note Collins English Dictionary offers the purely mathematical use of the word, as well as an informal use as meaning "very rapid".

I'm happy with that, and hope we can get back to discussing the important questions around the conversion of the UK towards electric vehicle use.


(Image caption illustrating a web page from Collins Dictionary showing the word exponential can be used informally as meaning very rapid.)

 

[Bikeman78]

Rogerstone station has four spaces with a charger. I read through the information in which it states maximum stay four hours. That doesn't seem very useful, certainly no good for commuters. None of the spaces were being used.

 

[Sun Chariot]

Hello @Mawkie Thanks for spotting my very tongue-in-cheek emojis and knowing I was posting merely in jest.

Yes - I rather think it's time to get back on topic. This thread offers me plenty of insight - my next car purchase will likely be later this year (if my current car's DCT gearbox lasts that long!)

 

[Peter Sarf]

Where you've typed "ICE" here, did you mean to type "EV"?
Otherwise it doesn't make sense, as ICE (Internal Combustion Engines) do not need charging.

Thanks for pointing out - I have corrected the original post.

The poster you've quoted is wedded to ancient ICE vehicles, so the term is probably well embedded!

Nah just dumb brain failure.

......................................

What does looking at a 15-20 year old Honda CRV have to do with a thread that's discussing whether or not it's realistic for the UK to switch to EVs? You clearly have a thing for older cars and that's fine - classic cars wouldn't exist if nobody took an interest in them.

In the meantime, most ordinary car drivers will keep their vehicles for a few years and then they'll move on to something newer. People who primarily buy used cars will still only keep their vehicles for as long as they're financially viable to run and, in more recent times, whether or not those vehicles will meet any ULEZ and other environmental considerations.

My point is that for people on a limited budget they are buying cars that are 15-20 years old. Do not confuse that with petrol heads or lovers of vintage vehicles. People on a tight budget do exist, not everyone can go out and buy the latest or near latest car. For those people on a small budget EVs will only become a consideration 15-20 years into the life of the EV. For me I prefer to stand back and wait for a good car to finish its period of significant depreciation as that would otherwise be my single biggest motoring cost. I do not do a large mileage (bear in mind I live in London) so like many people in my position a car is only suffering light wear.

The concern is - will the battery be usable at 15-20 years. Now in some cases EV batteries have not fared well over time leading to a cost that writes the car off. That is for certain makes and models of EV NOT ALL and is hopefully more to do with the past. A parallel would be some cars have poor engines. But EV batteries do seem to be far more expensive than a replacement engine. My thought is that I will be interested to see how a 15-20 year old EV compares to a 15-20 year old ICE. Not just now in 2025 but in 2030, 2035 and maybe 2040. There should be more second hand EVs around by those years and I will be interested to see what their value is and how much range is left in the battery.

For other than brand new cars it can be easier to judge how reliable the relevant make and model is so I know some people avoid a new make and model as well - so waiting for the range to show up its foibles.

I am aware that EVs currently depreciate quite heavily over the first 2-3 years of their life. I saw a TV program last night (might have been after Panorama) where it looked like almost 50% depreciation. So that an EV ends up being only slightly more expensive than the ICE equivalent that has depreciated a lot less.

New technology is always expensive and I can imagine that well within the next five years EVs will be a similar price to ICEs. I remember CD players dropping from £500 to £100 within the first 3 years of the technology. So the alarming depreciation so far seen on EVs will only have affected the early adopters - I hope.

For me it is no matter as I still want avoid the 3-15 year depreciation seen on an ICE.

Perhaps in 20 years' time there will be a cohort of people who have enthusiasm for early EVs. They will try to indulge their hobby in exactly the same way as current classic car enthusiasts do. They'll have to rely on there being sufficient scrap cars to provide parts and they'll also have to rely on the existence of companies that can refurbish or provide replacement batteries.

Ordinary people, those who don't have a fetish for 15-20 year-old cars, won't ever have to worry because they'll be buying cars that are either new, or a couple of years old, just as people do now with ICE vehicles!

There are plenty of ordinary people who buy older cars. It is because of what they can afford. Not a fetish but a practicality.

 

[Sun Chariot]

My point is that for people on a limited budget they are buying cars that are 15-20 years old. Do not confuse that with petrol heads or lovers of vintage vehicles. People on a tight budget do exist, not everyone can go out and buy the latest or near latest car

Spot on, Peter - and I had a thread last year asking a similar question.

This thread asks if a UK-wide switch to EV is realistic and, as you rightly say, a UK-wide switch must fit all demographics. I am mindful of those on lower income, with lesser budget and where public transport is not viable for their living vs working distances, nor hours of a day / night they must work (such as nursing, caring).

Come the day of ample used-EV availability in the "sub £5k" range and with cost-effective public charging infrastructure, then I expect the UK switch can be accessed by the majority.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Spot on, Peter - and I had a thread last year asking a similar question.

This thread asks if a UK-wide switch to EV is realistic and, as you rightly say, a UK-wide switch must fit all demographics. I am mindful of those on lower income, with lesser budget and where public transport is not viable for their living vs working distances, nor hours of a day / night they must work (such as nursing, caring).

Come the day of ample used-EV availability in the "sub £5k" range and with cost-effective public charging infrastructure, then I expect the UK switch can be accessed by the majority.

That's a good way to sum it up. Perhaps nearer sub £3k I am afraid - there are a lot of low paid essential workers who rely on a car. Especially with females who feel a bit vulnerable on public transport even if it is available in London.

 

[Mawkie]

My point is that for people on a limited budget they are buying cars that are 15-20 years old. People on a tight budget do exist, not everyone can go out and buy the latest or near latest car.

The new Dacia Spring isn't everyone's cup of tea, but it starts around £14k brand new, or £170 a month. Given the usual depreciation of all cars, how much will this car be worth in 3 years? I don't think you'll have to wait 15 or 20 years to be able to afford an EV.

 

[Peter Sarf]

The new Dacia Spring isn't everyone's cup of tea, but it starts around £14k brand new, or £170 a month. Given the usual depreciation of all cars, how much will this car be worth in 3 years? I don't think you'll have to wait 15 or 20 years to be able to afford an EV.

That (Dacia Spring) will be one to watch. We will see if corners have been cut on battery life of course. But this might be a sign of the inevitable (me hoping) drop in new prices as new tech matures. Usually without any compromise on quality.

 

[MotCO]

Thanks for pointing out - I have corrected the original post.

Nah just dumb brain failure.

My point is that for people on a limited budget they are buying cars that are 15-20 years old. Do not confuse that with petrol heads or lovers of vintage vehicles. People on a tight budget do exist, not everyone can go out and buy the latest or near latest car. For those people on a small budget EVs will only become a consideration 15-20 years into the life of the EV. For me I prefer to stand back and wait for a good car to finish its period of significant depreciation as that would otherwise be my single biggest motoring cost. I do not do a large mileage (bear in mind I live in London) so like many people in my position a car is only suffering light wear.

The concern is - will the battery be usable at 15-20 years. Now in some cases EV batteries have not fared well over time leading to a cost that writes the car off. That is for certain makes and models of EV NOT ALL and is hopefully more to do with the past. A parallel would be some cars have poor engines. But EV batteries do seem to be far more expensive than a replacement engine. My thought is that I will be interested to see how a 15-20 year old EV compares to a 15-20 year old ICE. Not just now in 2025 but in 2030, 2035 and maybe 2040. There should be more second hand EVs around by those years and I will be interested to see what their value is and how much range is left in the battery.

For other than brand new cars it can be easier to judge how reliable the relevant make and model is so I know some people avoid a new make and model as well - so waiting for the range to show up its foibles.

I am aware that EVs currently depreciate quite heavily over the first 2-3 years of their life. I saw a TV program last night (might have been after Panorama) where it looked like almost 50% depreciation. So that an EV ends up being only slightly more expensive than the ICE equivalent that has depreciated a lot less.

New technology is always expensive and I can imagine that well within the next five years EVs will be a similar price to ICEs. I remember CD players dropping from £500 to £100 within the first 3 years of the technology. So the alarming depreciation so far seen on EVs will only have affected the early adopters - I hope.

For me it is no matter as I still want avoid the 3-15 year depreciation seen on an ICE.

There are plenty of ordinary people who buy older cars. It is because of what they can afford. Not a fetish but a practicality.

I think the other issue to consider is that the range of EV cars available now will be much less than the range of EV cars available in maybe 5 or 10 years' time ( ie range as in distance, not plethora). So if you want to buy an EV in 15 or 20 years' time, with some battery deterioration, the distance between charges will be significantly lower than the new EV cars rolling off the production lines.

 

[jon0844]

The problem is that infinity is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-bogglingly big it is. Even exponential growth will never get anywhere near it.

It's big, but there's nothing bigger than infinity+1...

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Jan 2025 ==

Of course there are people who can only afford a very old, cheap, car. Aren't these the same people who buy one instead of buying a walk up rail ticket and then go to the Daily Mail to say how expensive it is to take a train compared to buying an old banger.

I suspect the number of people buying a 15-20 year old car is small, bar those who are enthusiasts buying a classic. For someone who needs a car for what might be a low-paid job, there's a huge risk buying such a cheap car and it might end up costing hundreds or thousands for maintenance and repairs.

I do believe that EVs of a similar age are going to fare better and be easier to check when buying, and given the ability to service batteries by changing modules, it may not even be a big issue to give them a life boost - but that's assuming people won't be happy to have a battery with a 70-75% state of health and a perfectly good range. It's unlikely someone on a very low paid job is travelling that far. Even if you can't charge from home, the cost of using a public charger is comparable to petrol/diesel (likely still less) and you have what's likely a more reliable car and one that's cheaper to keep on the road.

 

[Sun Chariot]

That's a good way to sum it up. Perhaps nearer sub £3k I am afraid - there are a lot of low paid essential workers who rely on a car. Especially with females who feel a bit vulnerable on public transport even if it is available in London.

Absolutely, it's those of lower income and essential workers particularly, who will be the deciding factor on "UK adoption".

Ironically, I initially wrote "sub £3k" in my post, for that exact reason. I changed it to £5k threshold, to capture inflationary effects on the £'s value; but also to highlight just how large a proportion of people need to access a low priced EV.

There are 2 very large hospitals and many, many residential care homes along the West Sussex and Hampshire coast. I fully agree with your point about those who'd feel vulnerable on public transport (where it even exists).

 

[Peter Sarf]

It's big, but there's nothing bigger than infinity+1...

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Jan 2025 ==

Of course there are people who can only afford a very old, cheap, car. Aren't these the same people who buy one instead of buying a walk up rail ticket and then go to the Daily Mail to say how expensive it is to take a train compared to buying an old banger.

I don't think so, why do you think that ?.
The people who can only afford an old car are more likely to be the ones that go by coach than train because the coach is a lot cheaper than the cheapest train tickets !.

I suspect the number of people buying a 15-20 year old car is small, bar those who are enthusiasts buying a classic. For someone who needs a car for what might be a low-paid job, there's a huge risk buying such a cheap car and it might end up costing hundreds or thousands for maintenance and repairs.

I see people round my neck of the woods with older cars. Not necessarily more unreliable than new cars.
I know one who has got through cars - seems to be on their third older car in a year or two. No depreciation and probably not spending thousands on repairs because first ly ordinary mechanics do not charge main dealer prices and secondly if it costs too much its time to sling it.

I do believe that EVs of a similar age are going to fare better and be easier to check when buying, and given the ability to service batteries by changing modules, it may not even be a big issue to give them a life boost - but that's assuming people won't be happy to have a battery with a 70-75% state of health and a perfectly good range. It's unlikely someone on a very low paid job is travelling that far. Even if you can't charge from home, the cost of using a public charger is comparable to petrol/diesel (likely still less) and you have what's likely a more reliable car and one that's cheaper to keep on the road.

That will be the clincher for me. Cheap to buy secondhand but still with a usable battery. I am hoping maintenance will be less on an EV than on an ICE. The actual cost of the electricity will not be a significant decider for me as I will not be doing many miles. Charging time might be tedious and range would be nice for when I do do a long trip.

Absolutely, it's those of lower income and essential workers particularly, who will be the deciding factor on "UK adoption".

Ironically, I initially wrote "sub £3k" in my post, for that exact reason. I changed it to £5k threshold, to capture inflationary effects on the £'s value; but also to highlight just how large a proportion of people need to access a low priced EV.

There are 2 very large hospitals and many, many residential care homes along the West Sussex and Hampshire coast. I fully agree with your point about those who'd feel vulnerable on public transport (where it even exists).

Indeed. For a carer who is visiting lots of addresses an EV makes ecological sense. Compared to a lot of start stop trips with the ICE engine barely getting warmed up on each trip. So when the costs balance up they will switch.

 

[Bald Rick]

My point is that for people on a limited budget they are buying cars that are 15-20 years old.

I suspect the number of people buying a 15-20 year old car is small

Correct. There are currently around 440,000 cars for sale on Autotrader. 8% of them are 15 years or older. 2% of them are 20 years or older, of which many will be deemed ’classics’ (about half this 2% are priced over £5k).

So, yes, the percentage of people buying cars in this range is small.

This thread asks if a UK-wide switch to EV is realistic

Absolutely, it's those of lower income and essential workers particularly, who will be the deciding factor on "UK adoption".

Yes it is realisitic. If it can happen in Norway, it can (and will) happen here.
The deciding factor is Government policy. The market will do the rest. There’s plenty of low income and/or essential workers driving EVs already.

 

[jon0844]

Absolutely, it's those of lower income and essential workers particularly, who will be the deciding factor on "UK adoption".

I really don't see that many 20 year old cars on the road, and it's just as likely someone who needs a car in a low paid job will have financed a second hand car than buying a highly risky old banger that lets them down at 3am and ends up with them losing pay or getting fired.

I doubt a relatively small group of people are going to have much of a part to play in UK adoption of anything. If they really can't afford a car and must buy a banger for £500-750 then they're not being considered by car makers.

Let's just hope that in 5 or 10 years there are second hand EVs with working batteries (even if the range has reduced) and they have a better experience than now, but car makers have long given up on a car 15 or 20 years old.

 

[Sun Chariot]

I really don't see that many 20 year old cars on the road, and it's just as likely someone who needs a car in a low paid job will have financed a second hand car than buying a highly risky old banger

My post doesn’t mention age of car. I used price threshold, as that's their indicator of affordability.

Also bear in mind that many on lower incomes and / or low credit rating are unable to secure finance deals, or are only able to access high-APR car finance.
I don't have ONS data to hand but I rather think this scenario touches more than the "relatively small group of people" you suggest. Examples I'm aware of:
- junior medical staff,
- 999 call handlers,
- staff at care-homes and hospices,
- carers who attend multiple residential homes.

Those factors influence that demographic's affordability of their next vehicle, regardless of its propulsion type.

 

[Bald Rick]

Let's just hope that in 5 or 10 years there are second hand EVs with working batteries (even if the range has reduced) and they have a better experience than now, but car makers have long given up on a car 15 or 20 years old.

Given there weren’t many EVs around 10 years ago, there are quite a few 10yo+ for sale. Mostly Leafs, i3s, and Zoe’s, and mostly in good nick.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Very few people are buying 20 year old cars. A typical banger is 10-15 years old tending towards 10. A 20 year old car is likely rusting to nothing or a cherished classic.

 

[AM9]

.... Those factors influence that demographic's affordability of their next vehicle, regardless of its propulsion type.

The main influences on their actual choice of 'cheap' vehicle is:
a) of course how much they have to spend
b) what is available in that price band
c) the cost of running a vehicle within that affordable acquisition price
d) whatever the extant laws allow to be driven, - particularly in urban areas, (it is likely that many large and medium sized towns will have zero emission zones*) and the social aspects of local pollution and health hazards.
e) the availability of fuel, (hint, consumption of hydrocarbon fuels is shrinking at a rate that will soon make it unattractive to distribute across the country without much increased prices, - electricity has however a bright and long future)

* Don't dismiss this as impossible, as last year a certain demographic decided that smashing up London's extended ULEZ camera infrastructure would force the Mayor to abandon the scheme. The scheme is alive and well and the number of non-compliant vehicles on the roads is falling fast despite the noisy protests about not being able to afford compliant cars and vans.

 

[MotCO]

Yes it is realisitic. If it can happen in Norway, it can (and will) happen here.

Not really a fair comparison. The population of Norway is around 5.5m, and they have 27,500 public EV chargers, so around 200 public chargers per person. The UK population is around 68m and we have 65,000 public chargers, so around 1,000 public chargers per person. To match Norway we need to increase the number of public chargers five-fold - not impossible, but a big ask.

 

[AM9]

Not really a fair comparison. The population of Norway is around 5.5m, and they have 27,500 public EV chargers, so around 200 public chargers per person. The UK population is around 68m and we have 65,000 public chargers, so around 1,000 public chargers per person. To match Norway we need to increase the number of public chargers five-fold - not impossible, but a big ask.

I think you mean 1 charger per 200 people.

 

[Bald Rick]

Not really a fair comparison. The population of Norway is around 5.5m, and they have 27,500 public EV chargers, so around 200 public chargers per person. The UK population is around 68m and we have 65,000 public chargers, so around 1,000 public chargers per person. To match Norway we need to increase the number of public chargers five-fold - not impossible, but a big ask.

Or, put another way, as we charge EVs, not people….

Norway has 27,500 public chargers for 800,000 EVs on their roads, ie 29 EVs per charger, whereas we have 65,000 public chargers for 1.4m EVs on our roads, ie 21.5 EVs per charger.

So we’re better.

Statistics, eh….

 

[Sun Chariot]

That's a good way of framing it, @Bald Rick

Do you know of any source that shows the actual spread of chargers - e.g. dots on a national map? For the UK, but - my idle curiosity - for Norway too?
The latter, I can imagine a high density of chargers in Oslo / Bergen and a low spread of chargers from there to Tromso.

 

[AM9]

That's a good way of framing it, @Bald Rick

Do you know of any source that shows the actual spread of chargers - e.g. dots on a national map? For the UK, but - my idle curiosity - for Norway too?
The latter, I can imagine a high density of chargers in Oslo / Bergen and a low spread of chargers from there to Tromso.

The both probably closely follow the demand for charging, - not just where the EV owners live, but also where there is the most need for public chargers. It's just business opportunity.

 

[cactustwirly]

Very few people are buying 20 year old cars. A typical banger is 10-15 years old tending towards 10. A 20 year old car is likely rusting to nothing or a cherished classic.

I wouldn't say a 10 year old car is a banger, it is still quite new and worth a bit

 

[bspahh]

That's a good way of framing it, @Bald Rick

Do you know of any source that shows the actual spread of chargers - e.g. dots on a national map? For the UK, but - my idle curiosity - for Norway too?
The latter, I can imagine a high density of chargers in Oslo / Bergen and a low spread of chargers from there to Tromso.

For a map of electric vehicle charges in the UK, there is https://www.zap-map.com/live/

https://www.ladestasjoner.no/kart/ says its the "The largest charging map in the Nordic region. And then some."

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Jan 2025 ==

I wouldn't say a 10 year old car is a banger, it is still quite new and worth a bit

https://www.scrapcarcomparison.co.uk/blog/scrap-car-report-statistics/ says that on average a car is scrapped in the UK when it is 17 years old, with 123k miles.

Cars usually get scrapped when the cost of repairs are higher than the cost of buying a similar replacement.

If you have a common model of car, there is a better chance of being able to get replacement parts from a salvaged car, which means its cheaper to repair. Unusual or unloved models are less likely to get stripped for spares, which means the rest of the models are then more likely to get scrapped. You see a lot more 15 year old Ford Focuses than Renault Meganes. More were sold in the first place, but the Meganes were a lot quicker to be scrapped.

 

[notverydeep]

I have done some analysis of DVLA data (publicly available spreadsheets here: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/vehicle-licensing-statistics-data-files) on cars or light vans licenced for use. The latest data is for 2023 when it shows 32,813,329 vehicles were licenced, of these 5,307,434 (16.2%) were first registered in 2008 or earlier so were then at least 15 years old and 1,278,741 (3.9%) were registered in 2003 or earlier and were at least 20 years old. Only 411,206 (1.25%) were at least 25 years old.

 

[AM9]

I have done some analysis of DVLA data (publicly available spreadsheets here: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/vehicle-licensing-statistics-data-files) on cars or light vans licenced for use. The latest data is for 2023 when it shows 32,813,329 vehicles were licenced, of these 5,307,434 (16.2%) were first registered in 2008 or earlier so were then at least 15 years old and 1,278,741 (3.9%) were registered in 2003 or earlier and were at least 20 years old. Only 411,206 (1.25%) were at least 25 years old.

It would be more useful if the average mileage of vehicles at those age breaks was available.