Heathrow Express use continuing to decline

[John R]

The latest ORR quarterly passenger numbers figures show that HEx use is continuing to fall. It's down 8% on the previous year, accelerating a trend we've seen this year in previous quarterly figures. When you adjust for the change in airport passenger numbers pre-COVID with now (which are 4.6% higher), it means that HEx now only carries 61% of the same proportion of passengers it did pre-COVID, and is continuing to fall.

Image shows graph of Hex passenger numbers which were around 1.6m pre COVID, since airport volumes picked up have been around 1.1m, but now fallen to 1.0m. Figures in thousands.

Source: https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/b21mng22/passenger-rail-usage-apr-jun-2024.pdf

Twenty of the 24 operators had an increase in passenger journeys compared with the same quarter in the previous year. Heathrow Express had the largest decrease with 12% fewer passenger journeys than the previous year. Increased competition with Elizabeth line for journeys between Heathrow and London Paddington may have contributed to this reduction.

 

[zwk500]

Not really a surprise is it, when you have the option of the Elizabeth Line direct to central London, and business much more cost-conscious.

I assume the passenger numbers are in 1,000s? So it's still carrying >1m passengers per quarter, which suggests the paths aren't going to be given up any time soon.

 

[Adam Williams]

I would wager that most passengers who do buy tickets for it have probably been deceived into thinking it's the only reasonable route into central London.

I found the signage and advertising at Heathrow to be somewhat misleading. You also have annoying pushy staff members circling like vultures ready to sell £25 tickets to unsuspecting visitors - even at stupid o'clock in the morning. It was honestly kind of embarrassing coming back to Heathrow a few weeks back and seeing this, it's not exactly a good welcome (the experience also reminded me how we Brits love completely useless, repetitive "safety" announcements like "Please do not put children on the baggage conveyor belts"). Plus all of the King's Guards imagery - call me unpatriotic, but I'd like to think we could find something better as a country to showcase the UK than a bloke with a dead bear on his head, specific to a small part of London.

 

[JN114]

I’ve said before on other threads - Heathrow have the option of lowering fares if they feel they need to stimulate demand.

That will be the sign that they are worried about passenger numbers.

At 4m passengers per annum, I think they are quite comfortable for now.

 

[Discuss223]

The new Crossrail services will be having a detrimental impact on revenue. It's part owned by First Group who are certainly stoic in times of adversity and don't give up easily. I'd rather use National Rail than a packed out tube train.

 

[jfollows]

I’m amazed by how many people still use it, but it’s their choice I guess. I used it once when it was 1+1 seating because I had a Britrail pass, but otherwise I used the Piccadilly line in the past and would use the Elizabeth line today. Maybe I’ll give the latter a bash next month when in London - out to Heathrow on it and back to South Kensington on the Piccadilly line sounds like an idea.

Maybe all the users can afford a taxi from Paddington to their destinations?

 

[JN114]

The new Crossrail services will be having a detrimental impact on revenue. It's part owned by First Group who are certainly stoic in times of adversity and don't give up easily. I'd rather use National Rail than a packed out tube train.

First Group have no ownership stake in Heathrow Express, which is wholly owned by Heathrow Airport.

Heathrow Express pay GWR a fee to run the operations side of their business for them; that is the only association between HEx and a First Group company.

 

[John R]

I would wager that most passengers who do buy tickets for it have probably been deceived into thinking it's the only reasonable route into central London.

I found the signage and advertising at Heathrow to be somewhat misleading. You also have annoying pushy staff members circling like vultures ready to sell £25 tickets to unsuspecting visitors - even at stupid o'clock in the morning. It was honestly kind of embarrassing coming back to Heathrow a few weeks back and seeing this, it's not exactly a good welcome (the experience also reminded me how we Brits love completely useless, repetitive "safety" announcements like "Please do not put children on the baggage conveyor belts"). Plus all of the King's Guards imagery - call me unpatriotic, but I'd like to think we could find something better as a country to showcase the UK than a bloke with a dead bear on his head, specific to a small part of London.

Yep, I saw that recently. People coming along a corridor being asked if they need tickets and signing up at £25 a pop.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Dec 2024 ==

At 4m passengers per annum, I think they are quite comfortable for now.

It averages at 9 passengers per coach throughout the day, some of whom will be on discounted fares.

I guess that question is what happens at the end of their track access agreement (2029?), and whether ORR thinks it's the best use of the paths.

 

[Mike395]

I guess that question is what happens at the end of their track access agreement (2029?), and whether ORR thinks it's the best use of the paths.

The elephant in the room there is that HAL (Heathrow Airport), not Network Rail, own the track past Airport Junction. So that gives Heathrow Express a strong negotiating position. I can see Elizabeth Line fares having to go up drastically as their negotiating position if HEX is no longer allowed to carry its fresh air and occasional tourist into the airport.

 

[cocoiadrop]

I used it last time for a calmer experience after a 14 hour flight compared to the busy EL service. That being said, it was on an advance fare with a railcard which made it much more justifiable.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

From a whole-industry point of view it would make sense for NR to challenge their continued usage of 4 (extremely valuable) ML paths per hour if the loadings figures do not justify it, particularly if HAL are increasingly using it as a bargaining chip to make the EL access rights a cash-cow for the airport. Tbh they could do that anyway even without running the HEX operation at all?

 

[jon0844]

I would wager that most passengers who do buy tickets for it have probably been deceived into thinking it's the only reasonable route into central London.

I found the signage and advertising at Heathrow to be somewhat misleading. You also have annoying pushy staff members circling like vultures ready to sell £25 tickets to unsuspecting visitors - even at stupid o'clock in the morning.

They are also quite good at approaching some people (especially those in suits or who might look well off) to sell first class upgrades. I wonder if the drop in passenger numbers is more standard class (with people using Elizabeth Line) tickets than first, whereby they might still be making good money with fewer overall passengers?

While I can't really see the point in first class, there will still be people who have the money and will pay. Indeed, some people who might be used to travelling first class wouldn't want to use standard or a normal metro service (but are also likely people who would have a car to pick them up..).

 

[Adam Williams]

They are also quite good at approaching some people (especially those in suits or who might look well off) to sell first class upgrades. I wonder if the drop in passenger numbers is more standard class (with people using Elizabeth Line) tickets than first, whereby they might still be making good money with fewer overall passengers?

While I can't really see the point in first class, there will still be people who have the money and will pay. Indeed, some people who might be used to travelling first class wouldn't want to use standard or a normal metro service (but are also likely people who would have a car to pick them up..).

I wonder how many of them know what the first class offering actually entails, at the point of being sold it!

 

[43066]

I would wager that most passengers who do buy tickets for it have probably been deceived into thinking it's the only reasonable route into central London.

I doubt they will have been deceived. At the end of the day, it has never been easier to Google routes into a city from an airport than now, and the vast majority of those who arrive at Heathrow will do so. There are probably still quite a few whose work or clients pay for it, and/or need to get to the area local to Paddington. Personally the handful of times I used it, work was paying, and it was pre Elizabeth line. I wouldn’t consider it now, even with a priv.

An announcement warning people not to put kids onto luggage conveyers is probably a reflection of how stupid many members of the general public are today, sadly.

 

[Mag_seven]

Don't forget that Heathrow Airport Ltd (or BAA as it was then) invested a significant amount of money in at least the infrastructure within the airport boundary (tunnels, stations etc). HEX fares income will provide a return on that investment.

 

[12LDA28C]

It averages at 9 passengers per coach throughout the day, some of whom will be on discounted fares.

On all the times I've used Heathrow Express at various times of the day, there's never been so few as 9 passengers per coach. It's still the quickest and most convenient way to get to Heathrow by train, albeit not the cheapest.

 

[JN114]

It averages at 9 passengers per coach throughout the day, some of whom will be on discounted fares.

And, they used to run longer trains pre pandemic (9x 23m coaches vs 8x 20m) - my very very rough maths suggests it equates to about a passenger per coach reduction on average. Not earth-shattering.

***

Ultimately HEx’s offering is about being quieter than the Elizabeth line, about having luggage space and toilets. Their target market isn’t the cost-conscious savvy traveller it is the £50-80 black cab fare to central London; and yes, maybe the hapless foreign visitor.

But more so than all of that, the purpose of HEx isn’t really to take people to or from London at all; its existence is largely so that the airport can charge higher fees to the airlines - and that will rake in far more money than the rail operation itself ever could.

Discussion about paths going elsewhere are moot - we’ve been round that block several times as well. The paths largely evaporate west of Airport Jn because of longer signalling sections and calling points of other services. There are no paths on the relief lines, or margins to cross from the mains into the Crossrail core. So from the ORR’s perspective they’d probably rather HEx used them than nothing at all; because realistically that is the only alternative.

 

[jfollows]

On all the times I've used Heathrow Express at various times of the day, there's never been so few as 9 passengers per coach. It's still the quickest and most convenient way to get to Heathrow by train, albeit not the cheapest.

Yes, but from where? Paddington is in a relatively remote location and if you’re going to change to tube or Elizabeth line there, it’s not a lot different from using them throughout.

 

[12LDA28C]

Yes, but from where? Paddington is in a relatively remote location and if you’re going to change to tube or Elizabeth line there, it’s not a lot different from using them throughout.

Paddington yes, which is no more remote than any other London terminus. Flying is time-consuming enough with check-in, security and so on without prolonging your journey to the airport on a stopping train or tube.

 

[Discuss223]

Yes, but from where? Paddington is in a relatively remote location and if you’re going to change to tube or Elizabeth line there, it’s not a lot different from using them throughout.

Eh? Paddington is in Central London, on the same street next door is Saint Mary's Hospital and close by is Paddington Basin, full of city offices, bars and apartments. Where do you suppose people would change at Paddington and travel onwards to?

 

[43066]

Where do you suppose people would change at Paddington and travel onwards to?

The city and Canary Wharf, and other London terminals most likely. The beauty of the EL is it will take you to those places (via an easy change at Farringdon for Kings +/St Pancras, London Bridge etc.).

 

[Mcr Warrior]

The city and Canary Wharf, and other London terminals most likely.

What's the comparative price of a single, peak hours, journey from Heathrow Airport into Central London, assuming you've the choice of Heathrow Express, the Elizabeth Line and the London Underground (Piccadilly line)? Or, I suppose the bus. And noting that not everyone's journey will be ending at London Paddington.

 

[Taunton]

I would wager that most passengers who do buy tickets for it have probably been deceived into thinking it's the only reasonable route into central London.

I found the signage and advertising at Heathrow to be somewhat misleading. You also have annoying pushy staff members circling like vultures ready to sell £25 tickets to unsuspecting visitors - even at stupid o'clock in the morning. It was honestly kind of embarrassing coming back to Heathrow a few weeks back and seeing this, it's not exactly a good welcome

I have actually given the "pushy" staff, who seem to be on sales commission, a piece of my mind. I asked what was the cheapest way to get to Hyde Park Corner. They said HEx to Paddington and then a taxi. When I asked why not direct on the Piccadilly Line, no changes or taxi, and quicker, there was just a shrug. They work still on the secure arrivals side before you come out, which the airport would doubtless not allow any competitor to work there. It's a bit disappointing that Hillingdon Council trading standards have not picked them up on it.

It would be good to see the usage figures in both directions, for it seems that nowadays whereas they bring more suckers in to London, very much fewer make the return journey outbound.

 

[Mojo]

I’ve said before on other threads - Heathrow have the option of lowering fares if they feel they need to stimulate demand.

To be fair back in the summer they did bring back the £10 (£6.60 Railcard) Advance fares that they scrapped at the end of last year.

This offers a saving against the £12.20 from Paddington or £13.30 from other stations on the LU network on the Elizabeth line even if you have to factor in the cost of a Zone 1 single to get to Paddington to pick up the HEx.

 

[Topological]

The Heathrow Express is great when it falls within a GWR advance. Much easier than changing at Reading and then Hayes and Harlington.

Whilst OOC will change the equation, for now there is still a set of passengers for whom Paddington and back out makes sense.

I am not sure it would be a good representation of the UK if the only way to get from our main airport to the centre of the capital was the Elizabeth Line.

 

[43066]

What's the comparative price of a single, peak hours, journey from Heathrow Airport into Central London, assuming you've the choice of Heathrow Express, the Elizabeth Line and the London Underground (Piccadilly line)? Or, I suppose the bus. And noting that not everyone's journey will be ending at London Paddington.

From a quick look at walk up prices, the HEX is £25 one way, EL to zone 1 is £12.80, Piccadilly line is £5.50.

Obviously the HEX ends at Paddington so a passenger would need to add a zone 1 tube fare of £2.80 to get elsewhere in zone 1.

If you can get an advance for £10 as the website promises HEX starts to look more competitive.

 

[SynthD]

I can see Elizabeth Line fares having to go up drastically as their negotiating position if HEX is no longer allowed to carry its fresh air and occasional tourist into the airport.

I can’t see that happening, as the access fee the EL pays was lowered because of a court decision.

It’ll stay until HAA don’t like the cost of the prestige and choose to end it themselves.

 

[Tetchytyke]

The Capital's largest airport really ought to remain on the National Rail network.

Both HEx and EL are part of the National Rail network.

As for the cost of HEx, you pay your money and you take your choice. HEx is 12 minutes faster than EL from T5 to Paddington and, even with the downgrade from the 332s to the 387s, is a much more pleasant travelling experience than EL. But there's a cost attached to that experience.

Last time I went from Heathrow to Central London it was part of a city break on BA Club Europe that cost my wife and I about £1300. In that context HEx fares barely register.

That said, I think EL is the sweet spot between value and convenience, especially as it's included in the daily cap if you're doing other travel that day. It'd be a cold day in hell before I'd sit on the tube for an hour after a long flight, even it does save me a tenner.

Maybe that's something they need to look at to increase custom. I'd happily pay a £10 supplement to the Z1-6 cap to travel on HEx, but I'm not going to pay £25 in addition to the cap.

 

[Djgr]

I think that we can speculate the end game and the deceptions employed suggest desperation is setting in.

 

[Gostav]

It seems that any transport services operated by airport are expensive. There have Luton DART cable rail to link station and airport, a one-way adult ticket cost £4.90 for a 2,080 m journey!