Current (autumn ‘24) passenger numbers

[The exile]

It's more reasonable for Paris than it is for Newcastle.

It’s 24p/ crow-flying mile. I wish my commute was anything approaching that!

 

[Krokodil]

It’s 24p/ crow-flying mile. I wish my commute was anything approaching that!

I picked Newcastle as the distance is almost the same as Paris. If I wanted to make a point about rip-off pricing it would be Manchester to Euston in the crosshairs.

Yes, I'd like to see cheaper fares on Eurostar. Not as much as I'd like to see cheaper fares on domestic trains though.

Maybe EES will streamline border control and allow Eurostar to start running more departures and fares will drop. I hope so.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If I wanted to make a point about rip-off pricing it would be Manchester to Euston in the crosshairs.

I'd say the two big examples of rip-off pricing are Manchester-Euston in the peak and Kings Cross-Edinburgh/Berwick/Newcastle off-peak. (The Anytime Single fare for both is very similar at around £200 despite Edinburgh being twice the distance). That as an aside is why LNER style pricing is a bigger threat to the WCML than the ECML - at least ECML Anytimes are *borderline* reasonable ish for such a long distance.

 

[43066]

Not sure where it is spelt out.

Out of interest, what makes you so sure those figures are included?

 

[Bald Rick]

I do worry that some people get really stuck in the bubble when they're eligible for cheap tickets and have a decent salary - this really isn't a very in touch idea I'm afraid. I can depart London on Monday at 0700 and depart Paris on Wednesday at 1400, along with a wide choice of other times of day, next week, the whole round trip for £39.98 including all fees and taxes. That's without voucher codes or cashback. Journey time is only 8 hours, which is quite reasonable given you're stopped and on a ferry or Le Shuttle for 3 of those hours. The carrier is, of course, Flixbus - note these are the last few remaining seats so the price never goes above around £35 each way.

£103 is not a reasonable fare for a round trip to Paris at 10 days notice. £39.98 is.

Now that it's back, Eurostar Snap might produce some more sensible late-notice rates.

That’s an opinion of course. Whilst I’m eligible for cheap tickets on Eurostar (which I’ve done twice in the 30 years (almost to the day!) they’ve been going), and also have a decent salary, you only have to look at passenger numbers between London and Paris to understand what people think of as reasonable.

It seems Flix run 6/7 coaches a day, mostly overnight; between them I’d be surprised if they carry more than 500 passengers. Eurostar carry well ober 10,000 a day. (each way)

You might not think that £103 isn’t reasonable, but an awful lot of people do.

Out of interest, what makes you so sure those figures are included?

I’ll PM you.

 

[Grimsby town]

Latest data from DfT suggests little if any rail passenger growth over the last year. Excluding Elizabeth line, stuck at under 90% of pre -Covid.

Domestic Transport Usage by Mode

www.gov.uk

It's not stuck though. The 87% is just for the last couple months. If you dive down into the data the average for this calender year is current 85% of pre-covid compared to 80% in 2023 so there's clearly still growth.

I'd personally expect annual growth to be higher now than it was pre-covid because pre-covid growth was being constrained by a slow move to working from home. If anything the opposite is true now with gradual increases in the number of people in offices every year. Obviously that growth will be from a lower base though.

 

[Krokodil]

I'd personally expect annual growth to be higher now than it was pre-covid because pre-covid growth was being constrained by a slow move to working from home. If anything the opposite is true now with gradual increases in the number of people in offices every year. Obviously that growth will be from a lower base though.

It'll take a few months more before the annual figures are no longer impacted by the national industrial dispute. As reliability improves, so should patronage.

 

[Snow1964]

It'll take a few months more before the annual figures are no longer impacted by the national industrial dispute. As reliability improves, so should patronage.

But there is no guarantee there won't be more strikes in next few years to discourage passengers again.

Although until the rail companies cut the ridiculously high cancellations due to lack of staff, not exactly encouraging people back.

And some operators seen reluctant to restore cut services (or shortened formations) where passengers have come back and there is now crowding. Keeping the thinned out 2021 timetable when now busy again, needs to stop.

 

[Starmill]

Whilst I’m eligible for cheap tickets on Eurostar (which I’ve done twice in the 30 years (almost to the day!) they’ve been going), and also have a decent salary, you only have to look at passenger numbers between London and Paris to understand what people think of as reasonable.

I was actually picking up more on the fact that you made the statement without knowing Flixbus ran the route or at what kind of prices.

Maybe if I win the lottery I'll persuade SNCF to allow me to sell their tickets for London - Calais and then run a non-stop coach from there to Abbey Wood and see how low I can get the prices to go really.

 

[Bald Rick]

I was actually picking up more on the fact that you made the statement without knowing Flixbus ran the route or at what kind of prices.

I knew full well that Flixbus serve the route, not least because I see them. And I‘ve previously looked up the prices (cheap) and the timetables (9h20 at quickest).

 

[Krokodil]

And some operators seen reluctant to restore cut services (or shortened formations) where passengers have come back and there is now crowding.

It's a bit difficult when the DfT made them off-lease HSTs and those have now been shipped to Mexico.

 

[Starmill]

But there is no guarantee there won't be more strikes in next few years to discourage passengers again.

Although until the rail companies cut the ridiculously high cancellations due to lack of staff, not exactly encouraging people back.

And some operators seen reluctant to restore cut services (or shortened formations) where passengers have come back and there is now crowding. Keeping the thinned out 2021 timetable when now busy again, needs to stop.

Transport for Wales are on a pretty even keel with that, which is probably the angle @Krokodil is thinking of. They run with relatively few cancellations due to staff shortages, they have a relatively strong training pipeline, they have settled all of the claims that were outstanding in a quicker fashion. Obviously they're not perfect but they've committed more cash to running an operation a bit more professionally. So really they're only beholden to whatever mess with their staff Network Rail are in.

 

[Snow1964]

ORR regional usage data released 21 Nov

1012m journeys within regions similar to 2018 & 2019 numbers

415m between regions (lower than before covid), but with the cancellations, cutbacks and short formations of some of the long distance operators, not really surprising as offering less

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/vmoa3nyv/regional-rail-usage-apr-2023-mar-2024.pdf

 

[Richard123]

And that is on fast and lovely new trains on a fairly new track, within a company that had to throw away most of its last set of trains way quicker than would have happened on the UK only mainlines.

There the also the very serious point that this is a tax on economic activity in the north. We live in a very strange country compared to all our European neighbours where the capital is x8 bigger than the next city down. That is always going to mean lots of north south/north west travel is necessary for economic growth. It is absolutely pathetic that we have allowed a situation to arise where the travel costs between two areas we are trying to rebalance act as an instant block. Made even worse by the fact you can’t get on the train because most of the tickets have been sold well in advance. Or more infuriating as seems to be happening quite a bit at the moment - there are only higher priced fares available and the train is largely empty. This has happened to me on a few London to the north morning peak services recently with the guard saying they only had 40 people booked on the whole of one LNER service to York.

#HS2

Just saying…

 

[evergreenadam]

I think the Bittern Line between Norwich and Sheringham is above pre-pandemic levels. Maybe the new trains were also a factor in increased passenger numbers?

Demand certainly seemed healthy in the off peak when I used it end to end on Fridays in September.

 

[Krokodil]

I'm going through the recently-published station usage statistics. 752 stations are above their 2018/19 usage figures, 417 have beaten their all-time records. A couple of highlights I've seen:

- Many of the local stations within Bristol (Stapleton Road, Lawrence Hill, Bedminster, Redland, Montpelier etc.) are showing strong growth
- Okehampton continues to establish itself and has now exceeded 300k passengers, with growth also seen at other stations around Exeter which have seen improved services as a consequence
- Many stations in North Wales have seen record passenger numbers, including Llandudno which got nearly 400k passengers, 20% above any previous records. Stations which were closed under Beeching but later reopened are doing well; Conwy and Llanfairpwll both saw higher numbers than they've had since records began, no small achievement considering the irregular service both get. Other stations such as Rhyl and Prestatyn have reversed their decline after last peaking around 2013. Shoutout for Dolgarrog which was once the quietest station in Wales. Having an official footpath across the river to the village it purports to serve has boosted patronage to 2k, from a low of 102.
- Swansea and Newport have recovered to their old levels of patronage
- Stations on local lines radiating out of Cardiff have suffered badly, undoubtedly due to engineering disruption as the infrastructure is modernised. I anticipate a strong rebound as the 4tph service commences
- Split ticketing is definitely disrupting the figures. Llanfairfechan is a common split point and it is my view that a large amount of the supposed growth for this station (it's doubtless growing anyway, but not that much) is down to Bangor-Chester passengers splitting their tickets there. Looking at Penmaenmawr I'd guesstimate Llanfairfechan's actual passenger numbers to be in the region of 25k
- Eccles and Patricroft have grown strongly. These suburban Manchester stations really need a service more frequent than hourly, there's so much potential for growth
- Manchester Piccadilly and Victoria have recovered to 2015 levels but Oxford Road lags far behind. Working from home will be a major factor, but unreliability of Northern and TPE who are the main operators serving these stations, plus to a lesser extent Avanti has surely had an effect
- Blackpool North has nudge past its previous all-time record, possibly indicating strong leisure traffic. This hasn't been reflected on the East Coast though, those resorts are still down
- Major stations around the Pennines are doing badly, with many stations on the Calder Valley down 20-30% compared with pre-pandemic and Huddersfield & Dewsbury down 40% or so. The route upgrade may be a factor, but also the state of the service when it is open

 

[Jamesrob637]

So overall the railway is doing well for actual numbers, but revenue is still a bit down on pre pandemic because people aren't buying as many season tickets, just day trips or cards like 8 in 28.

 

[Bald Rick]

So overall the railway is doing well for actual numbers, but revenue is still a bit down on pre pandemic because people aren't buying as many season tickets, just day trips or cards like 8 in 28.

The biggest issue is that the railway has lost tens of millions of trips by regular commuters from the likes of Guildford, St Albans, Haywards Heath, Leighton Buzzard, Bicester, Oxford, Cambridge and Tonbridge, at upwards of more than a tenner a go, which have been replaced by tens of millions of trips on the Elizabeth line at an average fare that is very much less. Add in a significant reduction in business travel (especially full fare first class), and there’s the £200m a month revenue gap.

 

[ScotGG]

Didnt the most recent stats from ORR show revenue rising faster than passenger numbers?

Not back there yet but the trajectory was positive.

If the new govt can also get moving with new housing around stations that will greatly help long term recovery and rail usage

 

[A S Leib]

I'd say the two big examples of rip-off pricing are Manchester-Euston in the peak and Kings Cross-Edinburgh/Berwick/Newcastle off-peak. (The Anytime Single fare for both is very similar at around £200 despite Edinburgh being twice the distance). That as an aside is why LNER style pricing is a bigger threat to the WCML than the ECML - at least ECML Anytimes are *borderline* reasonable ish for such a long distance.

From London, Birmingham, Loughborough and Bristol are ~100 air miles; Cardiff, Stoke-on-Trent and Chesterfield are ~130; Exeter, Manchester and Wakefield are ~150.

• An anytime return from Bristol to London is 40% more than the Avanti Birmingham to London anytime return
• An off-peak return from Loughborough to London is 80%(!) more than the Avanti Birmingham to London equivalent and there's a 70% increase from Stoke-on-Trent to Loughborough
• The Cardiff – London anytime return is more or less the same price as the Stoke – London ones, which I'd guess suffer from being on the Manchester route, and the off-peak return is 45% more
• An off-peak return to London via intercity services is £147 from Exeter, £140 from Wakefield (super off-peak singles) or £109 from Manchester

Maybe the WCML has a sharper peak than the MML or western routes, but that's still massive differences.

 

[philosopher]

I'm going through the recently-published station usage statistics. 752 stations are above their 2018/19 usage figures, 417 have beaten their all-time records. A couple of highlights I've seen:

- Many of the local stations within Bristol (Stapleton Road, Lawrence Hill, Bedminster, Redland, Montpelier etc.) are showing strong growth
- Okehampton continues to establish itself and has now exceeded 300k passengers, with growth also seen at other stations around Exeter which have seen improved services as a consequence
- Many stations in North Wales have seen record passenger numbers, including Llandudno which got nearly 400k passengers, 20% above any previous records. Stations which were closed under Beeching but later reopened are doing well; Conwy and Llanfairpwll both saw higher numbers than they've had since records began, no small achievement considering the irregular service both get. Other stations such as Rhyl and Prestatyn have reversed their decline after last peaking around 2013. Shoutout for Dolgarrog which was once the quietest station in Wales. Having an official footpath across the river to the village it purports to serve has boosted patronage to 2k, from a low of 102.
- Swansea and Newport have recovered to their old levels of patronage
- Stations on local lines radiating out of Cardiff have suffered badly, undoubtedly due to engineering disruption as the infrastructure is modernised. I anticipate a strong rebound as the 4tph service commences
- Split ticketing is definitely disrupting the figures. Llanfairfechan is a common split point and it is my view that a large amount of the supposed growth for this station (it's doubtless growing anyway, but not that much) is down to Bangor-Chester passengers splitting their tickets there. Looking at Penmaenmawr I'd guesstimate Llanfairfechan's actual passenger numbers to be in the region of 25k
- Eccles and Patricroft have grown strongly. These suburban Manchester stations really need a service more frequent than hourly, there's so much potential for growth
- Manchester Piccadilly and Victoria have recovered to 2015 levels but Oxford Road lags far behind. Working from home will be a major factor, but unreliability of Northern and TPE who are the main operators serving these stations, plus to a lesser extent Avanti has surely had an effect
- Blackpool North has nudge past its previous all-time record, possibly indicating strong leisure traffic. This hasn't been reflected on the East Coast though, those resorts are still down
- Major stations around the Pennines are doing badly, with many stations on the Calder Valley down 20-30% compared with pre-pandemic and Huddersfield & Dewsbury down 40% or so. The route upgrade may be a factor, but also the state of the service when it is open

Birmingham Snow Hill is only at 53% of 2018 / 2019 passenger numbers. Birmingham Snow Hill is a particularly commuter orientated station due to it’s location in Birmingham City Centre and therefore will have been particularly impacted by working from home. The loss of almost all Chiltern services on weekends will have further impacted it’s passenger numbers.

On the other hand, Moor Street is at 89% of 2018 / 2019 passenger numbers. Birmingham Moor Street is far more leisure orientated, being located next to the Bull Ring Shopping centre.

 

[dk1]

Birmingham Snow Hill is only at 53% of 2018 / 2019 passenger numbers. Birmingham Snow Hill is a particularly commuter orientated station due to it’s location in Birmingham City Centre and therefore will have been particularly impacted by working from home. The loss of almost all Chiltern services on weekends will have further impacted it’s passenger numbers.

On the other hand, Moor Street is at 89% of 2018 / 2019 passenger numbers. Birmingham Moor Street is far more leisure orientated, being located next to the Bull Ring Shopping centre.

Shame Birmingham isn’t as proactive on a return to the office as London.

 

[Krokodil]

Didnt the most recent stats from ORR show revenue rising faster than passenger numbers?

The annual finance figures are due out on Thursday, so I guess that we'll find out then.

 

[yorksrob]

The biggest issue is that the railway has lost tens of millions of trips by regular commuters from the likes of Guildford, St Albans, Haywards Heath, Leighton Buzzard, Bicester, Oxford, Cambridge and Tonbridge, at upwards of more than a tenner a go, which have been replaced by tens of millions of trips on the Elizabeth line at an average fare that is very much less. Add in a significant reduction in business travel (especially full fare first class), and there’s the £200m a month revenue gap.

I thought it had already been established that only the outer sections of the Elizabeth line that pre-existed the tunnel were counted in the stats ?

 

[Bald Rick]

I thought it had already been established that only the outer sections of the Elizabeth line that pre-existed the tunnel were counted in the stats ?

Everything is counted, but in comparisons with 2019, and where specifically stated, the core parts of Elizabeth line passengers and revenue are removed.

 

[DarloRich]

The biggest issue is that the railway has lost tens of millions of trips by regular commuters from the likes of Guildford, St Albans, Haywards Heath, Leighton Buzzard, Bicester, Oxford, Cambridge and Tonbridge, at upwards of more than a tenner a go, which have been replaced by tens of millions of trips on the Elizabeth line at an average fare that is very much less. Add in a significant reduction in business travel (especially full fare first class), and there’s the £200m a month revenue gap.

Is the correct answer.

Next question: How do we get them back?

( Milton Keynes > Euston is increasingly busy but still not like them olden days. I haven't had to sit in a luggage rack for years!)

 

[Bletchleyite]

Next question: How do we get them back?

We won't get commuters back in the same way - and that is (for society) a good thing.

Pursuing leisure passengers is the future. Which means you are going to need to make the railway *really good* to justify the premium prices it charges.

 

[Krokodil]

I haven't had to sit in a luggage rack for years!

I know that this is a bit tongue-in-cheek, but there's an important point to be made here. Is it really a bad thing that journeys are now more comfortable than they used to be? Should crush loads really be seen as the goal?

 

[DarloRich]

I know that this is a bit tongue-in-cheek, but there's an important point to be made here. Is it really a bad thing that journeys are now more comfortable than they used to be? Should crush loads really be seen as the goal?

no - but we should be trying to work out how to recover some or all of the money those missing people paid into the systems - i am more likely to sit in a luggage rack on a Sunday evening these days - the Avanti Manchester/Liverpool services are busy all day

 

[Krokodil]

Well fares are up £1.2bn and Network Rail's debt servicing costs are down (some of the bonds are index-linked) so we're making progress. What would really help boost income is a reliable service that the passengers can depend upon. Even on Sundays.