Current (autumn ‘24) passenger numbers

[Toller Station]

The comment about two of the most depressed regions was meant to encompass the idea of tickets being affordable - for many they are not. As for trains getting busier and the number of cheaper fares diminishing isn’t the answer to that more trains - although I do understand that parts of the network are currently under strain there are large parts of the network, with fixed costs, that would benefit from higher ridership. Northern for example seems to have some pretty sparse services, when they run.

As another example about the UK being an outlier on cost at the same time as I was booking my trip my wife was planning a trip, in March to Alicante in Spain to see a friend who has just been widowed. They were planning a side trip to Madrid on one of the (many) high speed services. Dirt cheap booked in advance. It certainly makes that Cross Country fare more questionable. What’s their mark up on the cost of the service?

Over the years I’ve been back to the UK several times, and always try to use the rail system. Prices never used to shock me, but now whenever I pull up what seems like a fairly plain journey (Dorchester to Waterloo on SWR for example or using LNER on the East Coast) my eyebrows raise. Perhaps my problem is that I am rooted in the past and remember the 70s and 80s when British Rail, for all its faults an underinvestment, was something you used without thinking much about the cost. A cheap day return and off you went. Perhaps if you live in the UK the maze of rail discount cards, split ticketing and advance fares all makes sense. To the outsider it probably doesn’t. Who pays full fares? People who have to travel at short notice and idiots? Is that the marketing ploy?

 

[12LDA28C]

Yes Cross Country really is a testament to the modern day failure of the British state. “Shall we level up the country?” “Oh yes Minister!” “Can we have frequent, affordable and comfortable intercity rail outside of London?” “No. Absoloutley not”.

Again, if it wasn't affordable, trains wouldn't be rammed. Are you suggesting lowering fares to make XC trains even more overcrowded?

 

[david1212]

.... CrossCountry on the other hand always seems to be rammed these days. I've lost count of how many times I've had to stand, e.g. Sheffield <> Leeds and Birmingham New Street > Stafford.

What formations? Did XC manage to allocate two 220/221 sets and crew? Otherwise just 26 first class and 174 or 236 standard class seats on except Manchester <> Birmingham routes that only have an hourly service plus a few additions.

Add Birmingham <> Reading to the list of route sections where demand regularly exceeds capacity yet it is hourly except for the few Newcastle - Reading trains. On to Southampton the alternative to XC is the GWR service to Basingstoke then change.

Yes Cross Country really is a testament to the modern day failure of the British state. “Shall we level up the country?” “Oh yes Minister!” “Can we have frequent, affordable and comfortable intercity rail outside of London?” “No. Absolute not”.

Indeed.

 

[Krokodil]

It certainly makes that Cross Country fare more questionable. What’s their mark up on the cost of the service?

XC is really inefficient. They operate short trains which guzzle fuel.

 

[DarloRich]

Or that fares are not as extortionate as some would have us believe...

that fares are unaffordable and it's much cheaper and more cost-effective to make the journey by car which seems at odds with the current boom in leisure travel where people are choosing to take the train when they don't have to.

I would say people find a way. It is the same as driving. Fuel is expensive but you find a way. Mostly credit..........

Yes Cross Country really is a testament to the modern day failure of the British state. “Shall we level up the country?” “Oh yes Minister!” “Can we have frequent, affordable and comfortable intercity rail outside of London?” “No. Absoloutley not”.

You mean XC aren't very good. I would say TPE offer a good quality service with good quality trains that are both fast and frequent.

Perhaps my problem is that I am rooted in the past and remember the 70s and 80s when British Rail, for all its faults an underinvestment, was something you used without thinking much about the cost.

you are sadly - the world has moved on. You reference several European countries and reflect thier cost and service level without noting thier differing political and financial support systems.

Indeed, but we are constantly told in the media (and by many on this forum) that fares are unaffordable and it's much cheaper and more cost-effective to make the journey by car which seems at odds with the current boom in leisure travel where people are choosing to take the train when they don't have to.

There is a trade off though surely? I could drive to the match but I couldn't have a pint. By extension they could drive to York for a day out but then they couldn't go on the pop.

Also I could drive to York for a day out ( and forgo that pint) but that will cost X in fuel, Y in parking and then maybe Z for park and ride and we should really add Z1 for wear and tear on my vehicle. Suddenly that train fare ( and a pint or two) looks attractive!

 

[ChrisC]

Again, if it wasn't affordable, trains wouldn't be rammed. Are you suggesting lowering fares to make XC trains even more overcrowded?

Perhaps they are rammed because there isn‘t even enough capacity for those who are fortunate enough to be able to afford to use them.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

Again, if it wasn't affordable, trains wouldn't be rammed. Are you suggesting lowering fares to make XC trains even more overcrowded?

Is it affordable? I once looked at a Bristol to Edinburgh fare that was many hundreds of pounds. I think it's subjective anyway. Eurostar has healthy loadings, but I no longer consider it affordable.

I am suggesting reasonable fares, with longer and/or more frequent trains. It's not a hard ask.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Nov 2024 ==

You mean XC aren't very good. I would say TPE offer a good quality service with good quality trains that are both fast and frequent.

Yes...I would agree with you there. Their rolling stock really is quite impressive, although the CAF units look a bit flimsy but I'm sure they're fine. Although forgive me for being an out of touch Southerner but isn't TPE's service quality dire at the moment? Or are you talking about the on-train amenities.

 

[The exile]

Is it affordable? I once looked at a Bristol to Edinburgh fare that was many hundreds of pounds. I think it's subjective anyway. Eurostar has healthy loadings, but I no longer consider it affordable.

I am suggesting reasonable fares, with longer and/or more frequent trains. It's not a hard ask.

By the very meaning of the word, the fares people have paid must be affordable - otherwise they couldn’t have afforded them. Whether it is affordable for you is of course a different matter.
I’m sure most people would agree with “reasonable fares with longer trains” - in theory. However they seem very reluctant to put their money where their mouth is when it comes to the tax increases required to pay for it.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

I’m sure most people would agree with “reasonable fares with longer trains” - in theory. However they seem very reluctant to put their money where their mouth is when it comes to the tax increases required to pay for it.

Sure. But what if more capacity + more passengers = more productivity + economic growth? It's not just 'taxes forever', we're still going to get something from it down the line.

I think in the specifics of Eurostar, it is certainly not affordable to the peers in my age cohort. Which is a shame. I'm not denying that there's always going to be a train load of Fulham's Finest that can afford a £250 return ticket to Paris, but I think relying on the supremacy of market forces to determine when ticket prices are 'right' means short haul travel, the private car or not travelling at all remain realistic options for many.

 

[Dr Hoo]

I’m not sure that Eurostar is particularly relevant to ‘National Rail’ within the UK. (For that matter isn’t immediately obvious to me that going abroad to promote productivity and economic growth in Paris, Brussels or Amsterdam rather than spending money in Britain should be a priority.)

Back in this country the challenge is that very often ‘more capacity’ has to be preceded with £££s of platform lengthening, rolling stock, power supply upgrades, depots, recruitment and training of more staff, etc., along the way. Proving that the £££s is exceeded by any subsequent economic growth isn’t always easy.

 

[12LDA28C]

I am suggesting reasonable fares, with longer and/or more frequent trains. It's not a hard ask.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Nov 2024 ==

So a complete overhaul of the fares system and structure, with longer and/or more trains is 'not a hard ask'. Really?

Where would these new and additional trains come from and who would pay for them? And you expect a fleet of new trains being introduced to result in cheaper fares? It sounds like what you're asking for would take several years and lots of investment to achieve. I suggest that's unlikely to happen.

 

[yorksrob]

So a complete overhaul of the fares system and structure, with longer and/or more trains is 'not a hard ask'. Really?

Where would these new and additional trains come from and who would pay for them? And you expect a fleet of new trains being introduced to result in cheaper fares? It sounds like what you're asking for would take several years and lots of investment to achieve. I suggest that's unlikely to happen.

In terms of XC, the immediate solution of least resistance would be to move over soon to be released Meridians to enable more sets to be doubled up (or even reformed into longer units).

In a sensible world these trains should be depreciated by now and comparatively cheap.....

 

[Toller Station]

So a complete overhaul of the fares system and structure, with longer and/or more trains is 'not a hard ask'. Really?

I’m not sure that an overhaul of the fares system would be that difficult. infrastructure is more of an issue but it would seem from the outside that much of the problem is political decision making. Brits do love a huge project, you know the kind of project that always runs massively over budget and time, gets descaled and never meets its intended targets. Now I know that there are some good reasons behind HS2 but how did that greenlighted? Pressure from huge construction companies? What about the alternative, spending the money to upgrade the wider network or was the thought of months of negative articles from the Daily Mail about spending money on a transport system ‘ruled’ by Unions the problem?

The UK does have good transport infrastructure. Ahead of my trip to the UK I opened up the TFL map. A thing of beauty and running through it the lovely new Elizabeth line, brought in to help with overcrowding on the London transport system. Turns page and looks at picture of stock ambling around on the Northern Network. Reads posting on overcrowding on CC trains. No momey for investment there.

you are sadly - the world has moved on. You reference several European countries and reflect thier cost and service level without noting thier differing political and financial support systems.

But why is the UK the outlier? The political system is that different? Is the issue that the UK seems to have lost somewhere the idea that rail travel is public transport? Does the infrastructure money get spent wisely? Is the aim in a Public Transport system to have system that is useable by the public or is the need to invest in infrastructure that means that trains can run 20 mph faster between two points? Which, getting back to the thread increase usage more?

Social media doesn’t help much either. The focus seems to be on which service provides the best bacon roll in First Class, or whether you get access to some dreary lounge with furniture that was on sale at IKEA rather than a subjective look at the service itself.

Not that I have anything against bacon rolls of course.

 

[officewalla]

Sure but some people think we're all in the clear financially when passengers numbers edge up to 100% or indeed well above on some routes on the weekend but if many people are on cheap advance tickets or off-peak fares versus previous business travellers on expense at the full anytime fare then revenue will not (and indeed it does not) match. As for post 2008 my understanding is it took a good 5 years for passenger numbers to recover.

As I said, this shouldn't be the only metric on which to assess the success of public transport but to ignore it completely is also not wise.

Which highlights that the funding model is wrong and a disproportionate value was attached to business and last minute travellers. Working thread should now be to simplify fares nationally and decide how much subsidy GBR will have for passengers thus leading to consistent pricing across the network.

 

[DarloRich]

Yes...I would agree with you there. Their rolling stock really is quite impressive, although the CAF units look a bit flimsy but I'm sure they're fine. Although forgive me for being an out of touch Southerner but isn't TPE's service quality dire at the moment? Or are you talking about the on-train amenities.

i am semi regular user of TPE at weekends and haven't had any issues. Perhaps just lucky but can only speak as I find.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Nov 2024 ==

But why is the UK the outlier? The political system is that different?

we keep voting for Tories!

 

[yorksrob]

But why is the UK the outlier? The political system is that different? Is the issue that the UK seems to have lost somewhere the idea that rail travel is public transport? Does the infrastructure money get spent wisely? Is the aim in a Public Transport system to have system that is useable by the public or is the need to invest in infrastructure that means that trains can run 20 mph faster between two points? Which, getting back to the thread increase usage more?

Good question.

We are suffering the consequences of having been in thrall to half-baked market ideology for so long - see also the water industry.

People are seeing through it now, but a lot of the costs are already baked in.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Nov 2024 ==

i am semi regular user of TPE at weekends and haven't had any issues. Perhaps just lucky but can only speak as I find.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Nov 2024 ==


we keep voting for Tories!

TPE seems to be ok at the moment. It seems to go downhill when Northern isn't too bad for some reason.

 

[Horizon22]

Which highlights that the funding model is wrong and a disproportionate value was attached to business and last minute travellers. Working thread should now be to simplify fares nationally and decide how much subsidy GBR will have for passengers thus leading to consistent pricing across the network.

It was because it worked for decades but as you same the model is now not the same. Ultimately - as it always is - it's a matter of money and how much should be funded by the taxpayer v the farepayer and how much different 'types' of "farepayer" should ultimately pay.

 

[Oxfordblues]

A friend who is prone to cynicism has suggested that the passenger statistics are based on the number of tickets purchased and that with the proliferation of split-ticketing, with multiple tickets for each journey, the figures are exaggerated. That can't be true, surely?

 

[Horizon22]

A friend who is prone to cynicism has suggested that the passenger statistics are based on the number of tickets purchased and that with the proliferation of split-ticketing, with multiple tickets for each journey, the figures are exaggerated. That can't be true, surely?

It's slightly true; at least the ORR accept it is a likely issue in their passenger data: https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/b21mng22/passenger-rail-usage-apr-jun-2024.pdf

As estimates of passenger journeys are primarily based on ticket sales, there are a number of limitations that users should be aware of, see Annex 1 of this statistical release and the associated Quality and methodology report for more information. In particular, some train operators’ journeys may be overestimated due to the impact of passengers buying ‘split tickets’ (this is where a passenger completes a single journey using two or more tickets). Rail Delivery Group (RDG) estimates that overall, around 5% of passenger journeys between April 2023 and March 2024 were made using split tickets (it was around 4% in the previous year). We are working with RDG to improve our published estimates of passenger journeys by incorporating an adjustment for split ticketing to more accurately reflect the actual number of journeys made. We were working towards incorporating an adjustment to the journey data in this release, but this has not been possible. We will continue to progress this development work to incorporate split ticketing adjustments within these statistics as soon as possible. This will include revisions to historic passenger journey data back to April 2020. Split ticketing has become more prevalent in recent years, therefore the extent to which it affects rail usage statistics has increased. It may be that the recovery of journeys relative to before the pandemic is overstated.

 

[Porty]

Is it affordable? I once looked at a Bristol to Edinburgh fare that was many hundreds of pounds. I think it's subjective anyway. Eurostar has healthy loadings, but I no longer consider it affordable.

I am suggesting reasonable fares, with longer and/or more frequent trains. It's not a hard ask.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Nov 2024 ==



Yes...I would agree with you there. Their rolling stock really is quite impressive, although the CAF units look a bit flimsy but I'm sure they're fine. Although forgive me for being an out of touch Southerner but isn't TPE's service quality dire at the moment? Or are you talking about the on-train amenities.

TPE seem generally fine to me. Northern to the west of the Pennines is a different matter.

 

[Bald Rick]

I think in the specifics of Eurostar, it is certainly not affordable to the peers in my age cohort. Which is a shame. I'm not denying that there's always going to be a train load of Fulham's Finest that can afford a £250 return ticket to Paris,

You can get a return to Paris next week for £103…

 

[Sad Sprinter]

You can get a return to Paris next week for £103…

For what time of day?

 

[Krokodil]

A friend who is prone to cynicism has suggested that the passenger statistics are based on the number of tickets purchased and that with the proliferation of split-ticketing, with multiple tickets for each journey, the figures are exaggerated. That can't be true, surely?

It's slightly true; at least the ORR accept it is a likely issue in their passenger data: https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/b21mng22/passenger-rail-usage-apr-jun-2024.pdf

Take Llanfairfechan as an example. It has grown by 77% compared with pre-covid. While it does seem a little busier, the splitting of tickets must have played a big part. The passenger km figures won't be affected, but the station usage and origin-destination figures (the former due out on the 21st) will be rendered meaningless.

You can get a return to Paris next week for £103…

Which is cheaper than you'll manage Newcastle on the same dates. Roughly a similar distance.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Nov 2024 ==

For what time of day?

Outbound any departure from 1731 on Tuesday so right in the afternoon peak. For the return you do have to get the last one on Wednesday night (and it is now £5 than when Bald Rick looked) but the earlier trains are still much cheaper than comparable departures on LNER. If you want to go to Newcastle instead of Paris I'd recommend seeing a mortgage broker before you open LNER's app. Avanti to Carlisle is no cheaper than Eurostar either.

 

[Horizon22]

Outbound any departure from 1731 on Tuesday so right in the afternoon peak. For the return you do have to get the last one on Wednesday night (and it is now £5 than when Bald Rick looked) but the earlier trains are still much cheaper than comparable departures on LNER. If you want to go to Newcastle instead of Paris I'd recommend seeing a mortgage broker before you open LNER's app. Avanti to Carlisle is no cheaper than Eurostar either.

One issue is that Eurostar is of course a much more commerical operator than almost any TOC. So Eurostar really need to get the seats filled (comments about STP depature capacity notwithstanding) and can use pretty clever dynamic pricing to do that.

Yes TOCs obviously can do that with Advance tickets but some routes are just never going to sell that well at certain times so if a ticket for argument's sake is unlikely to sell at either £40 or £100 what would you do. Of course for long-distance travel there could definitely be some sense made for peak travel.

As for LNER London to Newcastle next Tuesday and coming back Wednesday I can get 2 advance singles (a return effectively) for around £120 with the caveat of avoidng the peak from London. This was not using the app, but an easy Google search. Suggesting things like a "mortgage broker" is clearly hyperbole.

 

[Krokodil]

Suggesting things like a "mortgage broker" is clearly hyperbole.

The 1731 Eurostar is £54. How much is the 1730 out of Kings Cross?

 

[43066]

I’m not sure that Eurostar is particularly relevant to ‘National Rail’ within the UK. (For that matter isn’t immediately obvious to me that going abroad to promote productivity and economic growth in Paris, Brussels or Amsterdam rather than spending money in Britain should be a priority.)

Although it’s also bringing people into London from the near continent, so contributing to both (well heeled) tourist revenue and business activity being transacted in London.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Nov 2024 ==

You can get a return to Paris next week for £103…

That seems perfectly reasonable, and available at fairly short notice.

 

[Horizon22]

The 1731 Eurostar is £54. How much is the 1730 out of Kings Cross?

Peak travel is not the same in this regard. I did also state that having better peak dynamic pricing is the way forward rather than running peak trains with spare seats.

I have personally not been on the 1730 out of KGX, so cannot attest to how busy it is; it may well be full at the increased price. Almost every Eurostar I have been on (several times a year) at various hours has no spare seats.

 

[Bald Rick]

For what time of day?

a cheaper time than £250!

The point being that reasonable fares are avaialbel at relatively short notice.

Try getting from metropolitan London to metropolitan Paris and back next week by air or road and you’ll find that Eurostar at cheap times is by far the best value option, unless four of you share a car and happy to take 6 hours each way.

 

[pnepaul]

I live in Carlisle and have used Avanti for trips to Preston, Glasgow and Edinburgh. All I can say is that in recent weeks they have been pretty busy, even in First Class. I have also noticed that the Euston - Birmingham - Edinburgh trains are usually very busy. A couple weeks ago I went to see my brother in Glasgow on a Sunday using the 12.50 from Carlisle, thinking it would be quiet, it was almost full and standing, with a good number getting on in Carlisle. I am told by friends that Sunday travel from Carlise the trains are "rammed full".

 

[sheff1]

So a complete overhaul of the fares system and structure, with longer and/or more trains is 'not a hard ask'. Really?

Where would these new and additional trains come from and who would pay for them?

When XC cut the frequency on the key Sheffield -Birmingham section by 50% they said they would lenghten the remaing services. This hasn’t happened on a consistent basis.

Going past the Burton depot on a rammed 4 carriage Voyager you can normally seen a dozen or so units there. Some, of course, will be there for maintenace, but all of them ??

Take Llanfairfechan as an example. It has grown by 77% compared with pre-covid. While it does seem a little busier, the splitting of tickets must have played a big part.

Indeed. Llanfairfechan is a common split point.