Current (autumn ‘24) passenger numbers

[43066]

Another article (from the Guardian) suggesting that numbers in London are around 90% of pre pandemic, although it isn’t quite clear where they’re sourcing those figures.

My commute sees lower numbers than 2019, anecdotally, albeit some services are busy. The longer haul trains I work are well above pre Covid loadings and have been for a long time now.

What are peoples’ experiences?

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For anyone who has recently spent their morning commute nestled under a stranger’s armpit, it may come as a surprise to hear that passenger numbers on public transport have not returned to pre-Covid levels.

What Transport for London calls “ridership” has remained stubbornly stuck at about 90% of the levels seen before the pandemic. A similar picture prevails for light rail and tram systems across the rest of England, as a result of fewer people travelling daily to and from their workplaces.

 

[SCDR_WMR]

We were given some info at a staff event recently stating that overall passenger numbers are above 2019 but below growth predictions. Revenue is obviously another matter.

My 12 car Crewe to Euston this morning was completely packed.

 

[sheff1]

I rarely travel at commuter times now, but did go from West Ham to Benfleet around 1630 a few weeks ago and the lengthy train was full and standing for the duration which surprised me for a compartively early departure. Not sure how this compares with pre pandemic though.

Back on more usual territory, on my leisure jouneys my perception is that trains from/to Sheffield and Manchester, Leeds, Nottingham, Birmingham and London are quite a bit busier than pre pandemic, especially on Saturdays, and they were pretty busy before. The increase is not due to football supporters who were always there.

 

[Horizon22]

TfL figures of 90% is likely to be for TFL run modes (e.g. Underground, Overground, DLR, Elizabeth line) only. This was one of the areas that rebounded best post-Covid. In that regard I might imagine other TOCs to be more peaky/varied and overall <90% of 2019 loadings.

As stated though, even if it was to reach 100%, if it's not 100% of a revenue (which is almost certainly the case) that is a loss overall to the railway (not that revenue is the be-all-and-end-all of a public transport network, but that's a separate issue).

 

[Topological]

The TfW out of Manchester feel a lot busier. I did not used to catch the 16:30 (for example) but it is very busy and there is no way the same passengers would have fit on a 175/1. The train stays busy past Crewe as well. The 08:15 arrival at Manchester is also busier than a 175/1 could have handled. However, I feel the load from Shrewsbury/Wem/Whitchurch/Nantwich would have fit onto a 175/1. (Pre-pandemic I did the journey in reverse so know that the 06:27 ex-Piccadilly wasn't that busy and that arriving back at 22:15 was quiet.)

I suspect the current loadings show more regional heterogeneity than used to be the case.

 

[james_the_xv]

I've heard that commuter numbers are at around 80% pre-covid, but leisure numbers are well into the 130% level, in some areas nearly double pre-covid...

 

[SCDR_WMR]

Exactly. A privately run railway will always be looking at annual turnover as it's main KPI.

A government run railway may be more nuanced at a 50/50 passenger Vs revenue kpi.

Personally, if passenger numbers are above 2019 then that should be regarded as being only a good thing. Whilst it would be great if the railway covered it's spend, it's a public service provided at below cost due to the wider positive impact on the country's economy.

 

[Bald Rick]

On Thameslink MML my assessment is:

Tues - Weds back to something close to pre-Covid.
Monday about 80% of Tues-Thurs.
Friday morning about 30% of Tues-Thurs, and about half of pre Covid.
Fri eve about the same as pre Covid.
Off Peak and Weekends about the same as pre Covid, perhaps a touch busier, esp Friday after lunch.

Overall, I reckon about 85% of pre Covid.

 

[Horizon22]

Friday morning about 30% of Tues-Thurs, and about half of pre Covid.

That low?! I'd agree it's lower but I'd suggest 50-60% personally.

 

[Bald Rick]

That low?! I'd agree it's lower but I'd suggest 50-60% personally.

On my line yep. Tues-Thurs there are around 1300-1400 passenegrs on the peak 12 car fast trains. Friday, there’s loads of spare seats (out of 666 available).

 

[Dr Hoo]

One of my barometers is the station car park at Chesterfield, where before Covid it was often completely full. Since then it has never been close to full, even at weekends.

I don't travel to London very often these days but on those occasions when I do catch an early train from Sheffield to St Pancras or Stockport to Euston there still seems to be far less business travel.

CrossCountry on the other hand always seems to be rammed these days. I've lost count of how many times I've had to stand, e.g. Sheffield <> Leeds and Birmingham New Street > Stafford.

 

[DJP78]

Very busy, often full & standing down in the South West.

Passenger numbers have clearly rebounded. Station car parks look busier.

As mentioned above, have read recent reports / articles stating revenues are lower post-pandemic owing to fewer business commuters who previously contributed disproportionately to overall revenues.

 

[Cricketer8for9]

My morning train of preference is certainly less full than before. I never have to worry about getting a seat. And this is a situation where my pre-Covid train of choice from Purley Oaks no longer exists, so I have to go to Sanderstead.

On the other hand weekend trains are often full, especially mid morning into London. But the very fullest train I’ve been on, strikes excepted, was a Sunday morning service from East Croydon to Lewes (8 coaches) which had to cope with a huge group of people going to Seaford on an organised walk to Eastbourne over the Seven Sisters.

 

[Sleepy]

Norwich to Liverpool St. services arriving before 0900 Tuesday - Thursday are full & standing after Colchester and don't forget class 745 have more seats than old mk 3 stock. Revenue is a different story with way more Advance ticket availability than pre-covid when 90% was season tickets or SOR/FOR.

Update: seems to be plenty of people heading to London this morning, 0900 from Norwich full & standing from Ipswich - GA have laid on an additional service from Colchester (1G25).

 

[dk1]

Norwich to Liverpool St. services arriving before 0900 Tuesday - Thursday are full & standing after Colchester and don't forget class 745 have more seats than old mk 3 stock. Revenue is a different story with way more Advance ticket availability than pre-covid when 90% was season tickets or SOR/FOR.

I notice several complaints about lack of cheaper advance fares on many early morning trains on the GEML now to which they have been advised that this is due to much busier trains. Obviously the passengers in question are none too pleased with the response but these tickets have always been used to fill any spare capacity.

 

[DarloRich]

What are peoples’ experiences?

Anecdotal of course but pre covid i sat in a luggage rack on a good day on commuting to London . These days always a seat. it is getting fuller but only to the point that i might have to share a seat pair somedays.

Where it is different is at the weekends. Absolutely rammed.

My 12 car Crewe to Euston this morning was completely packed.

On a Saturday? Not a surprise. The weekend LNWR services into London are as worse, of not actually worse, than peak time trains into London pre covid. Even my usual dodge of getting the slow stopping train doesn't work as that is now filled with people also!

 

[Llandudno]

One of my barometers is the station car park at Chesterfield, where before Covid it was often completely full. Since then it has never been close to full, even at weekends.

I don't travel to London very often these days but on those occasions when I do catch an early train from Sheffield to St Pancras or Stockport to Euston there still seems to be far less business travel.

CrossCountry on the other hand always seems to be rammed these days. I've lost count of how many times I've had to stand, e.g. Sheffield <> Leeds and Birmingham New Street > Stafford.

There are a number of newish car parks/car parking areas that have recently sprung up near Chesterfield Station that offer significantly cheaper parking options than the expensive EMR station car park.

It’s also possible that since Cross Country removed many station calls at Chesterfield that some people heading for Leeds* or Birmingham drive instead..

* Northern are still operating (albeit with regular cancellations) their hourly 2 car unit to Meadowhall and Leeds but quite often it’s standing room only…!

 

[Sad Sprinter]

Watching Southern’s fast trains race through South London there still seems like enough demand to comfortably fill 8 coaches instead of 12. Give it another decade I reckon

 

[D1537]

Northallerton station car park is usually full Mon-Thu by 8.30 (270 spaces). You could usually find a spot pre-Covid.

LNER trains are packed at the weekends, it varies during the week. Liverpool-Newcastle TPEs are also busy in the mornings and evenings, the Saltburns not so much except for the odd one in peak times.

 

[alistairlees]

Whilst it varies by route / region, the Monday to Friday commute distribution looks something like this, where Tuesday = 100.
Monday: 73%
Tuesday: 100%
Wednesday: 92%
Thursday: 92%
Friday: 45%

Even Tuesday morning is not back up to pre-Covid commuter levels, especially in the London / south east market.

 

[greyman42]

Back on more usual territory, on my leisure jouneys my perception is that trains from/to Sheffield and Manchester, Leeds, Nottingham, Birmingham and London are quite a bit busier than pre pandemic, especially on Saturdays, and they were pretty busy before. The increase is not due to football supporters who were always there.

Which suggests to me that people are not as hard up as some try to make out.

 

[12LDA28C]

Which suggests to me that people are not as hard up as some try to make out.

Or that fares are not as extortionate as some would have us believe...

 

[JonathanH]

Which suggests to me that people are not as hard up as some try to make out.

Or that fares are not as extortionate as some would have us believe...

It is all relative isn't it. There will be people who have surplus income or limited outgoings who aren't feeling the effects of what is termed a 'cost of living crisis' as much as someone with greater outgoings, lower income or more dependants.

 

[43066]

As stated though, even if it was to reach 100%, if it's not 100% of a revenue (which is almost certainly the case) that is a loss overall to the railway (not that revenue is the be-all-and-end-all of a public transport network, but that's a separate issue).

At some point we have to move on from the pre Covid projections, though. We don’t still talk about the “loss” to the railway had 9/11 or the financial crisis of 2008 not happened, for example.

Which suggests to me that people are not as hard up as some try to make out.

Not sure what point you’re making? Clearly some people are wealthy, and train users tend to be better off than average. That doesn’t meant that there isn’t a cost of living crisis, or that many people are struggling.

 

[12LDA28C]

It is all relative isn't it. There will be people who have surplus income or limited outgoings who aren't feeling the effects of what is termed a 'cost of living crisis' as much as someone with greater outgoings, lower income or more dependants.

Indeed, but we are constantly told in the media (and by many on this forum) that fares are unaffordable and it's much cheaper and more cost-effective to make the journey by car which seems at odds with the current boom in leisure travel where people are choosing to take the train when they don't have to.

 

[Horizon22]

At some point we have to move on from the pre Covid projections, though. We don’t still talk about the “loss” to the railway had 9/11 or the financial crisis of 2008 not happened, for example.

Sure but some people think we're all in the clear financially when passengers numbers edge up to 100% or indeed well above on some routes on the weekend but if many people are on cheap advance tickets or off-peak fares versus previous business travellers on expense at the full anytime fare then revenue will not (and indeed it does not) match. As for post 2008 my understanding is it took a good 5 years for passenger numbers to recover.

As I said, this shouldn't be the only metric on which to assess the success of public transport but to ignore it completely is also not wise.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

I notice several complaints about lack of cheaper advance fares on many early morning trains on the GEML now to which they have been advised that this is due to much busier trains. Obviously the passengers in question are none too pleased with the response but these tickets have always been used to fill any spare capacity.

I've noticed they're now pretty full but the question GA have to ask is if they run an additional service, would they cover the costs. Currently I think given the extra seats on the 745s they seem to have it right. The extra 720 stopper to Witham in the evening and movement of 17:00 seems to have relieved the 18:30 to Norwich enough currently for it to busy without being uncomfortably full

 

[Toller Station]

From the outside UK Rail fares look both expensive and complicated and on occasion bordering on the extortionate. In the past couple of years from my home in Colombia I’ve traveled around the Dutch railway system and the French one. Now, it’s time to return ’home’ - and I was planning on visiting some of the places from my life. So, take a sample journey, Hartlepool to Torquay in mid week in February. Now I will admit that I like to travel First - but quite how the one way fare I get quoted is over $600 is interesting. Of course the issue is the Cross Country portion from York to Newton Abbott. Note that $600 is multiples of the price I paid for an InOui 1st class ticket from Paris to Marseille (and onto Cassis) a couple of months ago.

Now of course there are ways around this - a Britrail pass is one. Knowing how the ticketing systems work is key - lots of vlogs and this forum to help of course but should rattling around on a Cross Country train between two of the most depressed regions in the UK cost that much?

The changes in passengers are interesting. I always find the Netherlands an interesting example. if nothing else the fact that you can just turn up at a station and buy a ticket - much as I remember from the UK in the 1970s and 1980s, is public transport. What would rail ridership be in the UK if you didn’t have to book weeks in advance and commit to a specific train?

The UK needs to react quicker to changes in society. The idea of office workers commuting into the centre was already having issues pre-covid. Decades before I had worked for an American company that had (with all of us screaming) moved us from the City to the wilds of Bromley. Now with AI coming to change all of our lives a lot of office jobs may well go. And getting people out of cars onto trains and helping your efforts towards reducing fossil fuels isn’t going to work with some of the current UK Rail pricing.

 

[12LDA28C]

Now of course there are ways around this - a Britrail pass is one. Knowing how the ticketing systems work is key - lots of vlogs and this forum to help of course but should rattling around on a Cross Country train between two of the most depressed regions in the UK cost that much?

Welcome to the Forum! I'm not sure what your claim that you are travelling 'between two of the most depressed regions in the UK' has to do with the cost of your ticket - although you may not be aware that Torquay is a very popular tourist destination, being on the so-called 'English Riviera' and as such is extremely busy, especially in the summer months, not so much in February!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Nov 2024 ==

The changes in passengers are interesting. I always find the Netherlands an interesting example. if nothing else the fact that you can just turn up at a station and buy a ticket - much as I remember from the UK in the 1970s and 1980s, is public transport. What would rail ridership be in the UK if you didn’t have to book weeks in advance and commit to a specific train?

Of course, you can still just turn up and buy a ticket, and millions of passengers every year do just that. However, particularly for longer-distance journeys, advance fares are cheaper as they are designed to attract custom on less-busy trains although as market forces dictate, if the trains then get busier, the number of cheaper fares available will naturally diminish.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

From the outside UK Rail fares look both expensive and complicated and on occasion bordering on the extortionate. In the past couple of years from my home in Colombia I’ve traveled around the Dutch railway system and the French one. Now, it’s time to return ’home’ - and I was planning on visiting some of the places from my life. So, take a sample journey, Hartlepool to Torquay in mid week in February. Now I will admit that I like to travel First - but quite how the one way fare I get quoted is over $600 is interesting. Of course the issue is the Cross Country portion from York to Newton Abbott. Note that $600 is multiples of the price I paid for an InOui 1st class ticket from Paris to Marseille (and onto Cassis) a couple of months ago.

Now of course there are ways around this - a Britrail pass is one. Knowing how the ticketing systems work is key - lots of vlogs and this forum to help of course but should rattling around on a Cross Country train between two of the most depressed regions in the UK cost that much?

The changes in passengers are interesting. I always find the Netherlands an interesting example. if nothing else the fact that you can just turn up at a station and buy a ticket - much as I remember from the UK in the 1970s and 1980s, is public transport. What would rail ridership be in the UK if you didn’t have to book weeks in advance and commit to a specific train?

The UK needs to react quicker to changes in society. The idea of office workers commuting into the centre was already having issues pre-covid. Decades before I had worked for an American company that had (with all of us screaming) moved us from the City to the wilds of Bromley. Now with AI coming to change all of our lives a lot of office jobs may well go. And getting people out of cars onto trains and helping your efforts towards reducing fossil fuels isn’t going to work with some of the current UK Rail pricing.

Yes Cross Country really is a testament to the modern day failure of the British state. “Shall we level up the country?” “Oh yes Minister!” “Can we have frequent, affordable and comfortable intercity rail outside of London?” “No. Absoloutley not”.