ORR release quarterly passenger data

[birchesgreen]

Pleasant, certainly. Faster, yes. "A lot faster"? All of around 10 minutes.

On an overcrowded Aventra 10 minutes feels a lot longer.

 

[The exile]

On an overcrowded Aventra 10 minutes feels a lot longer.

And if you want the surface at Paddington it’s effectively a few more than 10.

 

[Taunton]

It certainly no longer justifies 8-car trains at a time when there seems a stock shortage elsewhere. Whyever cannot half the units be released?

Looks like I got my wish within hours. But strangely, instead of running 4-cars, they abandoned the service.

Class 387 related disruption, inc. Heathrow Express suspension

https://x.com/heathrowexpress/status/1842209293019275545?s=46 Due to a significant incident outside of our control, there are currently no Heathrow Express services running. We are actively working to resolve the issue as quickly as possible. Current service information and advice can be found...

www.railforums.co.uk

Rumour has it that there’s an issue with the couplings on their fleet of 387s that is preventing multiple working. Is there any truth to this

 

[yorksrob]

I preferred Heathrow Connect. The fact that it had one tiny poster at ground level, whereas the rest of the Heathrow station I was at (can't remember which one) was vulgarly covered in Heathrow Express advertising material, made the connect train seem so much more exclusive

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

If you compare journeys with the same qtr in 2019 vs train km run a few anomalies stick out.

C2C is running 86% of train km but passengers are at 73%

GWR is running 104% of train km but passenger journeys are at 86%

SE is running 89% of train km but passenger journeys are at 75%

All suggest timetables are mismatched compared to peers although am a bit surprised about GWR train km

TfW Rail is running 105% of train km but passengers are at 92% but its showing an impressive 27% YoY increase so maybe demonstrating that a better service will attract passengers.


Operators sweating the assets are

LNER is running 98% of train km but passenger journeys are at 114%

XC is running 75% of train km but passenger journeys are at 83%

 

[Benjwri]

GWR is running 104% of train km but passenger journeys are at 86%

But only 95.5% of passenger vehicle km, so shorter trains, coupled with a quieter peak, but little change in the timetable to account for more leisure travel.

 

[Snow1964]

If you compare journeys with the same qtr in 2019 vs train km run a few anomalies stick out.

C2C is running 86% of train km but passengers are at 73%

GWR is running 104% of train km but passenger journeys are at 86%

I tend to prefer passenger km and vehicle km

When I looked at GWR (my local operator) it looks like average journey length has increased about 15% (by dividing passenger km by the number of passengers). Similarly by dividing the vehicle km by train km I discovered the average train length has shrunk too.

So depending on how statistics are presented, can see above, or that GWR trains are actually busier (passengers per vehicles by distance)

 

[The exile]

But only 95.5% of passenger vehicle km, so shorter trains, coupled with a quieter peak, but little change in the timetable to account for more leisure travel.

Increase in services in the west and southwest and loss of services to Crossrail. As far as passenger loadings are concerned, one is unlikely to make up for the other (certainly not initially).

 

[The Ham]

The other interesting thing to look at is how far back you have to go to get the passenger numbers we have now and how that compares with last year (the latter is in brackets)

Avanti 2015 (2012)
C2C 2011 (unknown)
Chiltern 2014 (2012)
Cross-country 2013 (unknown)
EMR 2024 (2023) - highest numbers ever
Elizabeth Line 2024 (2023) - highest numbers ever
GTR 2013 (2011)
GWR unknown - although it's hard to compare due to the loss of passengers due to the Elizabeth Line
Greater Anglia - 2017 (unknown) - they were already seeing a downwards trend well before COVID
LNER 2024 (2023) - highest numbers ever
London Overground 2016 (2015)
Merseyrail 2017 (unknown) - in part as partner numbers between 2011 and 2017 were broadly the same with small peaks a troughs
Northern 2012 (unknown)
Scotrail 2014 (2011)
SWR unknown - they were already seeing a downwards trend well before COVID
Southeastern unknown - they were already seeing a downwards trend well before COVID
TPE 2013 (unknown)
West Midlands Trains 2014 (2011)

All (including OAO) 2015 (2013)

Whilst this shows that NSE franchises are likely to be at their lowest levels ever. However if we take SWR as an example, pre COVID it appears to have been falling at about 3% per year, if we set the trend at 2% a year they would have reached 37.4 million passengers in the last quarter rather than the observered 40.3.

It's also worth noting that other than C2C all franchisees saw growth.

The other thing the above analysis highlights is that for the majority of TOC's their growth from 2023 to 2024 was more than one years of growth in the pre COVID period. Which is especially significant given that in the early 2010's nation rail growth was around 5% and it was seen as a period of high growth.

The likes of SWR, Southeastern, C2C and GWR are unlikely to return to 2019 rail use numbers any time soon, however many of the rest could do so fairly quickly (next few years).

One of the interesting things from the crowding data which also recently came out was that into London stations the off peak numbers were higher than 2019. Which, whilst season ticket usage is likely to be much lower, as the cost to provide all day capacity is less than peak hour high capacity may not be quite so bad as the top line numbers imply.

Yes it means thinking differently about how the railways are run, but then change isn't always bad - often it can be good, even if it's hard to overcome the ease of carrying on what you were previously doing.

 

[Goldfish62]

XC is running 75% of train km but passenger journeys are at 83%

That's why I positively do all I can to avoid Cross Country. The guarantee of a cramped standing spot beside the toilet for several hours doesn't appeal.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Oct 2024 ==

So depending on how statistics are presented, can see above, or that GWR trains are actually busier (passengers per vehicles by distance)

Yes, the amount of five-car trains between London and South Wales / Bristol makes them a lot busier!

 

[philosopher]

Whilst this shows that NSE franchises are likely to be at their lowest levels ever. However if we take SWR as an example, pre COVID it appears to have been falling at about 3% per year, if we set the trend at 2% a year they would have reached 37.4 million passengers in the last quarter rather than the observered 40.3.

It's also worth noting that other than C2C all franchisees saw growth.

The other thing the above analysis highlights is that for the majority of TOC's their growth from 2023 to 2024 was more than one years of growth in the pre COVID period. Which is especially significant given that in the early 2010's nation rail growth was around 5% and it was seen as a period of high growth.

The likes of SWR, Southeastern, C2C and GWR are unlikely to return to 2019 rail use numbers any time soon, however many of the rest could do so fairly quickly (next few years).

One of the interesting things from the crowding data which also recently came out was that into London stations the off peak numbers were higher than 2019. Which, whilst season ticket usage is likely to be much lower, as the cost to provide all day capacity is less than peak hour high capacity may not be quite so bad as the top line numbers imply.

Yes it means thinking differently about how the railways are run, but then change isn't always bad - often it can be good, even if it's hard to overcome the ease of carrying on what you were previously doing.

I still think things have not settled down post Covid in terms of what the long term of level of WFH vs office working is. I think there is still a trend for workers to return to the office, hence why the growth rate in the past year is higher than what it was pre Covid. Also I think a lot of workers may be working from home in the morning and going to the office later in the day to avoid peak time fares. This would be causing a growth in off-peak usage.

 

[matt_world2004]

Heathrow Express Operating Company, who run the HEX, but still have to pay track access to Heathrow Airport Limited and Network rail, made a £18 million profit in the 2023 financial year.

Heathrow express, make roughly ~£8,000,000-£9,000,000 a month in oyster/contactless revenue according to payments from transport trading limited to the Heathrow express operating company . All other TOCs make 1.6 billion combined in the same month

https://content.tfl.gov.uk/tflspend2025p5.pdf

It works out at about 320 000 paid journeys made on oyster /contactless a month

 

[Goldfish62]

The other interesting thing to look at is how far back you have to go to get the passenger numbers we have now and how that compares with last year (the latter is in brackets)

Avanti 2015 (2012)
C2C 2011 (unknown)
Chiltern 2014 (2012)
Cross-country 2013 (unknown)
EMR 2024 (2023) - highest numbers ever
Elizabeth Line 2024 (2023) - highest numbers ever
GTR 2013 (2011)
GWR unknown - although it's hard to compare due to the loss of passengers due to the Elizabeth Line
Greater Anglia - 2017 (unknown) - they were already seeing a downwards trend well before COVID
LNER 2024 (2023) - highest numbers ever
London Overground 2016 (2015)
Merseyrail 2017 (unknown) - in part as partner numbers between 2011 and 2017 were broadly the same with small peaks a troughs
Northern 2012 (unknown)
Scotrail 2014 (2011)
SWR unknown - they were already seeing a downwards trend well before COVID
Southeastern unknown - they were already seeing a downwards trend well before COVID
TPE 2013 (unknown)
West Midlands Trains 2014 (2011)

All (including OAO) 2015 (2013)

Whilst this shows that NSE franchises are likely to be at their lowest levels ever. However if we take SWR as an example, pre COVID it appears to have been falling at about 3% per year, if we set the trend at 2% a year they would have reached 37.4 million passengers in the last quarter rather than the observered 40.3.

It's also worth noting that other than C2C all franchisees saw growth.

The other thing the above analysis highlights is that for the majority of TOC's their growth from 2023 to 2024 was more than one years of growth in the pre COVID period. Which is especially significant given that in the early 2010's nation rail growth was around 5% and it was seen as a period of high growth.

The likes of SWR, Southeastern, C2C and GWR are unlikely to return to 2019 rail use numbers any time soon, however many of the rest could do so fairly quickly (next few years).

One of the interesting things from the crowding data which also recently came out was that into London stations the off peak numbers were higher than 2019. Which, whilst season ticket usage is likely to be much lower, as the cost to provide all day capacity is less than peak hour high capacity may not be quite so bad as the top line numbers imply.

Yes it means thinking differently about how the railways are run, but then change isn't always bad - often it can be good, even if it's hard to overcome the ease of carrying on what you were previously doing.

On SWT/SWR passenger numbers started declining around 2012 (coincidentally or not at the same tine as operational performance started declining), yet it didn't stop SWT adding more and more trains in every new timetable.

Like you, I've tried searching for historical passenger numbers for SWT and can't find anything substantive.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Oct 2024 ==

I still think things have not settled down post Covid in terms of what the long term of level of WFH vs office working is. I think there is still a trend for workers to return to the office, hence why the growth rate in the past year is higher than what it was pre Covid. Also I think a lot of workers may be working from home in the morning and going to the office later in the day to avoid peak time fares. This would be causing a growth in off-peak usage.

Probably right, but what I don't think we'll see is annual season ticket revenue returning to anywhere remotely where it was pre-Covid.

 

[Sly Old Fox]

I’d be annoyed if I couldn’t use Heathrow Express any more. It’s so much a nicer journey.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

The other interesting thing to look at is how far back you have to go to get the passenger numbers we have now and how that compares with last year (the latter is in brackets)

Avanti 2015 (2012)
C2C 2011 (unknown)
Chiltern 2014 (2012)
Cross-country 2013 (unknown)
EMR 2024 (2023) - highest numbers ever
Elizabeth Line 2024 (2023) - highest numbers ever
GTR 2013 (2011)
GWR unknown - although it's hard to compare due to the loss of passengers due to the Elizabeth Line
Greater Anglia - 2017 (unknown) - they were already seeing a downwards trend well before COVID
LNER 2024 (2023) - highest numbers ever
London Overground 2016 (2015)
Merseyrail 2017 (unknown) - in part as partner numbers between 2011 and 2017 were broadly the same with small peaks a troughs
Northern 2012 (unknown)
Scotrail 2014 (2011)
SWR unknown - they were already seeing a downwards trend well before COVID
Southeastern unknown - they were already seeing a downwards trend well before COVID
TPE 2013 (unknown)
West Midlands Trains 2014 (2011)

All (including OAO) 2015 (2013)

Whilst this shows that NSE franchises are likely to be at their lowest levels ever. However if we take SWR as an example, pre COVID it appears to have been falling at about 3% per year, if we set the trend at 2% a year they would have reached 37.4 million passengers in the last quarter rather than the observered 40.3.

It's also worth noting that other than C2C all franchisees saw growth.

The other thing the above analysis highlights is that for the majority of TOC's their growth from 2023 to 2024 was more than one years of growth in the pre COVID period. Which is especially significant given that in the early 2010's nation rail growth was around 5% and it was seen as a period of high growth.

The likes of SWR, Southeastern, C2C and GWR are unlikely to return to 2019 rail use numbers any time soon, however many of the rest could do so fairly quickly (next few years).

One of the interesting things from the crowding data which also recently came out was that into London stations the off peak numbers were higher than 2019. Which, whilst season ticket usage is likely to be much lower, as the cost to provide all day capacity is less than peak hour high capacity may not be quite so bad as the top line numbers imply.

Yes it means thinking differently about how the railways are run, but then change isn't always bad - often it can be good, even if it's hard to overcome the ease of carrying on what you were previously doing.

How much was the pre-Covid passenger number drop due to Brexit rather than early adopters of home working?

 

[Adrian1980uk]

I think as long as passenger numbers are growing (which overall they are at a healthy rate) then it's only a matter of time that we surpass any historical records. Key thing for the industry is to provide a reliable, consistent service.

 

[Goldfish62]

I think as long as passenger numbers are growing (which overall they are at a healthy rate) then it's only a matter of time that we surpass any historical records. Key thing for the industry is to provide a reliable, consistent service.

Absolutely! The boringly reliable railway, as Roger Ford puts it. There's a long way to go to get to that though!

 

[Adrian1980uk]

Absolutely! The boringly reliable railway, as Roger Ford puts it. There's a long way to go to get to that though!

Yes, that includes running trains of the correct length and standard.

 

[yorksrob]

The DfT also needs to understand that the commercial model established under BR (based on large numbers of commuters and business travellers) is essentially dead and that public transport will need to be funded by other means.

 

[Goldfish62]

Yes, that includes running trains of the correct length and standard.

And other simple things such as not treating last trains as expendable as any other service. There's a whole host of passenger-unfriendly stuff that has crept in post Covid which by eliminating would go a long way to re-establishing confidence.

 

[philosopher]

On SWT/SWR passenger numbers started declining around 2012 (coincidentally or not at the same tine as operational performance started declining), yet it didn't stop SWT adding more and more trains in every new timetable.

Like you, I've tried searching for historical passenger numbers for SWT and can't find anything substantive.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Oct 2024 ==


Probably right, but what I don't think we'll see is annual season ticket revenue returning to anywhere remotely where it was pre-Covid.

In the years leading up to Covid, SWR / SWT had a lot of one off factors that I suspect suppressed their passenger numbers. For example, one summer, I seem to remember half of Waterloo Station being shut for about six weeks to lengthen platforms 1 to 6 for 10 car trains. During this summer services were drastically reduced, particularly on the suburban services through Wimbledon. Also I seem to remember they had a long industrial dispute that led to a number of strikes on Saturdays.

SWR / SWT passengers I suspect may have been more likely to be early adopters of WFH too than passengers of other London and southeastern franchises.

 

[Goldfish62]

In the years leading up to Covid, SWR / SWT had a lot of one off factors that I suspect suppressed their passenger numbers. For example, one summer, I seem to remember half of Waterloo Station being shut for about six weeks to lengthen platforms 1 to 6 for 10 car trains. During this summer services were drastically reduced, particularly on the suburban services through Wimbledon. Also I seem to remember they had a long industrial dispute that led to a number of strikes on Saturdays.

SWR / SWT passengers I suspect may have been more likely to be early adopters of WFH too than passengers of other London and southeastern franchises.

I agree with all that.

 

[43066]

The DfT also needs to understand that the commercial model established under BR (based on large numbers of commuters and business travellers) is essentially dead and that public transport will need to be funded by other means.

Albeit there are still large numbers of commuters and business travellers, and numbers are growing! It’s still a key market, and will continue to expand as people head back to the office, and through population growth.

 

[slowroad]

The DfT also needs to understand that the commercial model established under BR (based on large numbers of commuters and business travellers) is essentially dead and that public transport will need to be funded by other means.

And the funding should take account of the facts that most people rarely if ever travel by train and that on average those that do tend to be better off (and hence subsidised by non users who are on average less well off).

 

[yorksrob]

And the funding should take account of the facts that most people rarely if ever travel by train and that on average those that do tend to be better off (and hence subsidised by non users who are on average less well off).

This is nonsense.

The majority of people do use the train, if only occasionally. But when they need it, they need it.

 

[Snow1964]

The DfT also needs to understand that the commercial model established under BR (based on large numbers of commuters and business travellers) is essentially dead and that public transport will need to be funded by other means.

Network Rail also has not yet caught up with idea that leisure travellers and those visiting family around public holidays are now important, and have replaced business travellers and commuters as important source of fare income.

Only have to look at the number of closures around Christmas and New Year because they are still in a putting business users and commuters as priority mindset.

 

[The exile]

And the funding should take account of the facts that most people rarely if ever travel by train and that on average those that do tend to be better off (and hence subsidised by non users who are on average less well off).

Or that every person on the train is freeing up road space for those who don't have the option (for example because one leg of their journey is very early / late, or they're transporting stuff etc.). Also - we don't live in isolation. The person who doesn't use the train may well be dependent on the services of someone who does. "No man [or woman] is an island, entire unto him[her]self" is something we've been encouraged to forget over the last 40 years or so, but it's none the less true for all that.

 

[yorksrob]

Network Rail also has not yet caught up with idea that leisure travellers and those visiting family around public holidays are now important, and have replaced business travellers and commuters as important source of fare income.

Only have to look at the number of closures around Christmas and New Year because they are still in a putting business users and commuters as priority mindset.

Yes, apparently they did try varying engineering works. Don't know what became of this though.

 

[slowroad]

Or that every person on the train is freeing up road space for those who don't have the option (for example because one leg of their journey is very early / late, or they're transporting stuff etc.). Also - we don't live in isolation. The person who doesn't use the train may well be dependent on the services of someone who does. "No man [or woman] is an island, entire unto him[her]self" is something we've been encouraged to forget over the last 40 years or so, but it's none the less true for all that.

This argument works in some places, but across most of the country it’s a big stretch when rail only accounts for a few percent of journeys.

 

[stuu]

This is nonsense.

The majority of people do use the train, if only occasionally. But when they need it, they need it.

They really don't. I like trains, obviously, but the notion that they are relevant to a majority of the population is a lie. It just is. A slight majority of the population use trains more than once a year, just, but it for many it is often one trip a year to London or something, nothing important. Most of those are infrequent users at best. Some of the people use trains all the time, but we are very much not the majority, we just aren't