Flying Scotsman should be transferred from LNER to Lumo

[Clarence Yard]

Right, let’s get this straight - Lumo isn’t interested in swapping paths, it isn’t going to be forced to do it and it would be commercial suicide to do it anyway. A near 0630 departure off EDB is what their market wants and the resultant times off Morpeth and Newcastle also make it a very attractive train.

This idea of swapping paths is therefore a complete non-starter (ignoring the slight fact that it would be illegal under competition law anyway) and without any merit for Lumo or probably LNER, who will want to get a decent yield per punter for their train, preferably from getting as many first class on it as possible.

 

[Starmill]

The opposite working at the same time (05:48 from Kings Cross to Edinburgh) is a Lumo train as well - a prime "commuter" train for day trippers from London to Edinburgh

How many people do you imagine are rising around 0400 to be at Kings Cross station for around 0530, then spending the day in Edinburgh and returning home some 16-20 hours later?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Jul 2024 ==

Running an expensive service at the prime time isn't the best way to take people off the air.

It is not the goal of Lumo to "take people off air". It is to generate a surplus to hand back to their investors who have paid for the trains and the start-up costs and would like returns on their money.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It is not the goal of Lumo to "take people off air". It is to generate a surplus to hand back to their investors who have paid for the trains and the start-up costs and would like returns on their money.

The goal of Lumo is, like any other business, to make a profit for its shareholders. However as with any business it has an intended method of doing so (it's not, for example, by selling furniture) and in Lumo's case that's by growing the rail market by attracting people not presently using rail (as well as nicking a bit of business from LNER). Were the model purely abstractive, they'd never have been allowed to start.

 

[yorkie]

Lumo is a budget operator. That's the reason I want the path to be swapped.

The current timings of the respective trains suits LNER and their passengers, and also suits Lumo and their passengers.

Swapping them (if that were even possible) would be to the detriment of all parties concerned.

That it doesn't suit you isn't really a consideration.

Also, this "reason" doesn't sound very compelling to me.

 

[Starmill]

The goal of Lumo is, like any other business, to make a profit for its shareholders. However as with any business it has an intended method of doing so (it's not, for example, by selling furniture) and in Lumo's case that's by growing the rail market by attracting people not presently using rail (as well as nicking a bit of business from LNER). Were the model purely abstractive, they'd never have been allowed to start.

At the end of the day that doesn't mean anything - Lumo have the licence and the firm rights now, and the conditions attached to it are so lax they don't really constrain the business from simply acting how they want in commercial matters.

@miklcct thinks this change would capture more airline passengers. But, the reality is, even if that were so, Lumo wouldn't care. They want the marginal passengers who'll pay them more, whomever they may be, not the ones who would otherwise fly. Mostly these are people who would otherwise use LNER. Mostly they're also people getting on the morning train at Newcastle or Morpeth.

 

[6Gman]

Lumo is a budget operator. That's the reason I want the path to be swapped.

The fact that this early morning train is one of the prime "commuter" train means that it has the greatest potential to take passengers off the air. By running a cheap, no-frills service at the prime time catering for business day trippers, passenger volumes can be maximised.

The opposite working at the same time (05:48 from Kings Cross to Edinburgh) is a Lumo train as well - a prime "commuter" train for day trippers from London to Edinburgh, and the last train back from Edinburgh to London (19:58 from Edinburgh) is also a Lumo train.

Running an expensive service at the prime time isn't the best way to take people off the air.

It's not a commuter train.

Nor is the 0548 Down.

 

[Peter Wilde]

Not Flying Scotsman. Think Lumo should be looking at a small fleet of A4s. Or better, take up the Wardale design for the 5AT.

 

[Helvellyn]

Lumo is a budget operator. That's the reason I want the path to be swapped.

The fact that this early morning train is one of the prime "commuter" train means that it has the greatest potential to take passengers off the air. By running a cheap, no-frills service at the prime time catering for business day trippers, passenger volumes can be maximised.

The opposite working at the same time (05:48 from Kings Cross to Edinburgh) is a Lumo train as well - a prime "commuter" train for day trippers from London to Edinburgh, and the last train back from Edinburgh to London (19:58 from Edinburgh) is also a Lumo train.

Running an expensive service at the prime time isn't the best way to take people off the air.

So we swap a 9-car Class 801 Azuma with 611 seats (101 First Class/510 Standard Class) for a 5-car Class 803 with 402 seats (all Standard Class)? Losing all those First Class seats that are actually quite well utilised (at a premium) and reducing Standard Class capacity by approximately 20%.

 

[The Middle]

The problem is pathing. Many of the stations that Lumo misses out don't have passing loops, so they can't "jump" an LNER/TPX/XC/SR train that is stopping there. If you built the timetable around giving Lumo the perfect path then sure, they could do the journey in under 4 hours, but that would be catastrophically restrictive on the rest of the network and would lead to a far worse service for the 99% of trains and passengers on the East Coast who are not using Lumo, with trains needing to miss out stations and/or see significantly extended journey times and/or run at a reduced frequency in order to avoid getting in the way of that perfect path.

Ironically for this thread that is exactly what the 'Flying Scotsman' does.

The service is an anachronism that prioritises a relatively small number of first class passengers.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Would it move to the west coast line if that provided a faster service on hs2? Or does it have a home it belongs at, like the main user of Kings Cross?

The London-Edinburgh service was due to transfer to the west coast using HS2b when that came into use (using HS2 as far as Golborne).
The plan was an hourly London-Glasgow/Edinburgh splitting at Carlisle.
All that became dead and buried by the successive cutbacks to the HS2 route, first to Crewe and then to Handsacre (Lichfield).

 

[MarkyT]

I'd say Mallard would better match Lumo's colour scheme. I'll get my coat!

 

[LBMPSB]

"Flying Scotsman" is just a name given to a train service. The name belongs to LNER, so why would they relinquish it to Lumo their competitor? There is nothing stopping Lumo coming up with it's own name, if they so desired. But there is no need, because the Lumo brand is enough to tell their potential costomers what their service is.

 

[NER1621]

The plan was an hourly London-Glasgow/Edinburgh splitting at Carlisle.

Forgive my ignorance but was the plan for HS2 to provide a worse London-Edinburgh service than the existing network - only hourly? Or do you mean there was going to be an hourly HS2 express service, stopping only at Carlisle to split, in addition to other services on both ECML & WCML calling at intermediate stations?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Forgive my ignorance but was the plan for HS2 to provide a worse London-Edinburgh service than the existing network - only hourly? Or do you mean there was going to be an hourly HS2 express service, stopping only at Carlisle to split, in addition to other services on both ECML & WCML calling at intermediate stations?

It wasn't hourly, it was 2tph. Requires Phases 1, 2a and 2b, though. Without all of that the only HS2 Edinburgh is the Birmingham.

 

[43066]

Lumo specialises in running fast trains, early trains and late trains, and trains which compete with flights. The Flying Scotsman perfectly fits these criteria. It compete with flights in the morning peak.

LNER also run all of the above, including trains which compete with flights, and to a much greater extent than Lumo because they carry the vast majority of passengers on the London - Newcastle/Scottish routes.

LNER should focus in serving the intermediate markets where flying isn't an option, such as York.

I think you misunderstand the purpose (as the DfT sees it) of open access operators. Lumo isn’t supposed to compete with LNER, or change its focus in any way. It’s intended as a supplementary ECML operator which generates new business for the railway and, in theory at least, doesn’t abstract revenue from LNER. Hence the slightly odd stopping patterns they are restricted to. The two operators are absolutely not supposed to be dividing the existing market between them. There’s no way that Lumo “taking over” a headline LNER service would be compatible with this!

 

[stevieinselby]

Forgive my ignorance but was the plan for HS2 to provide a worse London-Edinburgh service than the existing network - only hourly? Or do you mean there was going to be an hourly HS2 express service, stopping only at Carlisle to split, in addition to other services on both ECML & WCML calling at intermediate stations?

The original plan for Scotland was for 2tph, splitting at Carlisle so that both Edinburgh and Glasgow would get a half-hourly service on the same HS2 path. That would be in addition to the current ECML services which would continue running, although it's quite likely that they would see some additional station stops added and so would have a slightly slower journey time.

 

[JGurney]

Named trains do have a place on the railway as they are still a key marketing tool to drive patronage of the railway. Being able to use a name to advertise a service rather than full technical details is more recognisable to the general public especially something as historic and prestigious as "Flying Scotsman"

This topic was discussed earlier - see: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/the-carolean-express-new-named-service-from-lner.247254/

 

[NER1621]

The original plan for Scotland was for 2tph, splitting at Carlisle so that both Edinburgh and Glasgow would get a half-hourly service on the same HS2 path. That would be in addition to the current ECML services which would continue running, although it's quite likely that they would see some additional station stops added and so would have a slightly slower journey time.

Thanks for clearing that up (also thanks @Bletchleyite). As you say, all academic at the moment.