UK General Election 2024: The Results & Aftermath

[ainsworth74]

Well it's that time again! We've had a general chitchat about the general election, we've had a chat about who we're voting for, what we're doing on election night itself, how many seats the Conservatives might win along with what will happen to the party after the election, we've discussed what our Portillo moments might be, we also talked about the reasons for voting and we even, at the peak of the waiting for the result induced insanity had a quick chat about what political party leaders would be which type of train!

But now the votes are in and being counted and it's time to talk about the results! As soon as the Exit Poll is available in an online it will be added to the opening post for your delectation (and I'm sure someone will post it below anyway) to discuss and think about whilst we wait for the results to pour in overnight before finally tomorrow and in the coming days we can dissect the result itself and what it all means!

Labour is set to win a general election landslide with a majority of 170, according to an exit poll for the BBC, ITV and Sky.
If the forecast is accurate, it means Sir Keir Starmer will become prime minister with 410 Labour MPs – just short of Tony Blair's 1997 total.
The Conservatives are predicted to slump to 131 MPs, their lowest number in post-war history.
The Liberal Democrats are projected to come third with 61 MPs.
The Scottish National Party will see its number of MPs fall to 10, while Reform UK is forecast to get 13 MPs, according to the exit poll.
The Green Party of England and Wales is predicted to double its number of MPs to two and Plaid Cymru are set to get four MPs. Others are forecast to get 19 seats.
The exit poll, overseen by Sir John Curtice and a team of statisticians, is based on data from voters at about 130 polling stations in England, Scotland and Wales. The poll does not cover Northern Ireland.
At the past five general elections, the exit poll has been accurate to within a range of 1.5 and 7.5 seats.

Labour set for general election landslide, according to exit poll

Sir Keir Starmer is on course to be the next prime minister, as the Tories look set for their biggest defeat.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[DarloRich]

Polls closed. Here we go..........................

 

[JamesT]

Exit Poll:
Lab 410
Con 131
LD 61
Ref 13
SNP 10
PC 4
Grn 2

 

[JonathanH]

SNP to 10? Have they really messed things up that much? Conservatives on 131 is way higher than people will have been hoping.

 

[DarloRich]

nothing won or lost yet. Clam people.

 

[Thirteen]

Green on 2 is poor for them although I assume the gain is Bristol Central.

 

[Trackman]

Will be interesting if Reform get anyway near 13 seats.

 

[philosopher]

SNP to 10? Have they really messed things up that much? Conservatives on 131 is way higher than people will have been hoping.

I am a bit skeptical of the SNP only get 10 seats and Reform getting 13 seats as they do not really align with other polls. I am not sure how accurate the exit poll is with the smaller or newer parties though!

 

[Bald Rick]

stand out forecasts from the exit poll:

SNP down to 10 seats
Reform getting 13 (really????)

Lib Dems similar to 2005 result.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

That exit poll is definitely at the lower end of the Labour landslide predictions - I make that a slightly smaller majority than Tony Blair managed in 1997. But still a massive win for Labour and a total disaster for the Tories.

 

[DarloRich]

SNP down to 10 seats
Reform getting 13 (really????)

not sure i believe either figure.

I make that a slightly smaller majority than Tony Blair managed in 1997. But still a massive win for Labour and a total disaster for the Tories.

similar give or take changes in constituencies and MP numbers.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I'd like to know what the exit poll is claiming in share of the vote - but the BBC don't seem willing to tell us that

 

[pokemonsuper9]

Is there anywhere that has exit polls broken down by the constituencies they happened in?
I'd be interested to see that.

 

[Bantamzen]

Well I can confidently predict that the exit polls will be out by at least 1 vote. I never tell them my actual vote..

 

[Thirteen]

Out of interest, will there be Cabinet appointments tomorrow or will it be Monday.

 

[brad465]

There are a number of tossups it seems, include the likes of Mordaunt. Particularly given the predictions for the smaller parties, I can see a fair bit of movement in the actual result vs the exit poll, however definitely not changing the government outcome.

 

[birchesgreen]

That exit poll is definitely at the lower end of the Labour landslide predictions - I make that a slightly smaller majority than Tony Blair managed in 1997. But still a massive win for Labour and a total disaster for the Tories.

Though they started from a lot further back than in 1997, -80 to +170 is quite a change.

 

[Donny Dave]

Those exit poll figures are incredible!

 

[Gloster]

I suspect that there will be a few embarrassing Labour losses and one or two surprising Conservative holds. But Reform on 13 is worrying and that is not just because we will be subjected to wall-to-wall Farage. As I said before, the one I pity is the Speaker who will have to try and keep control.

 

[Bantamzen]

Out of interest, will there be Cabinet appointments tomorrow or will it be Monday.

It will probably depend on when the 326 figure is passed. But but I'd expect an incoming Labour government to take the weekend to appoint the Cabinet.

 

[birchesgreen]

I suspect that there will be a few embarrassing Labour losses and one or two surprising Conservative holds. But Reform on 13 is worrying and that is not just because we will be subjected to wall-to-wall Farage. As I said before, the one I pity is the Speaker who will have to try and keep control.

Be funny if Frog Face wasn't one of the 13.

 

[AlterEgo]

Will be interesting if Reform get anyway near 13 seats.

Seems a little high to me. I’d have had them down for 3-4 seats. Surprised.

 

[Trackman]

Seems a little high to me. I’d have had them down for 3-4 seats. Surprised.

Had them down as none, 1 at a push
Do they have target seats online so I can see what is going on?

 

[JonathanH]

Those exit poll figures are incredible!

They aren't really. The number of labour seats is less than 1997 and there seems no prospect of the Conservatives moving into third place, which would actually have been incredible. This is 'below par' for me given what polls were indicating.

 

[DarloRich]

Seems a little high to me. I’d have had them down for 3-4 seats. Surprised.

Agree: i felt, Clacton, Boston and 30p Lee

 

[Bantamzen]

I'd be very cautious about Reform's exit numbers. I would suspect that their voters would be far more likely to announce their voting preference to exit pollsters than swing voters going to Labour. I expect their numbers to be far less than forecast.

 

[Magdalia]

A few observations about the exit poll.

It was conducted by Ipsos.

The previous Ipsos MRP poll was a bit of an outlier. In particular there were 6 constituencies where Ipsos predicted a Conservative hold but all other pollsters predicted a Liberal Democrat victory. It will be interesting to see how good the exit poll is at estimating the number of seats won by the Liberal Democrats as a result of tactical voting.

The variations in MRP polls suggest that Scotland is particularly difficult to model with MRP polling.

In the MRP polls the highest prediction for seats for Reform was 7.

I'm looking forward to seeing how near the exit poll gets to the actual result, which is the only one that matters.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

stand out forecasts from the exit poll:

SNP down to 10 seats
Reform getting 13 (really????)

Lib Dems similar to 2005 result.

yup its really wrong no way Reform have 13 or SNP down to 10 - people on exit polls will mislead the questioner

 

[Trackman]

Who's first to declare? at around 23:30 as I know ..seems to be some competition in this election. edit: Ok just on TV now Blythe vs Sunderland.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

One bit of trivia I'll be interested to see is ... how far will you be able to travel without entering a Tory constituency. One of the extraordinary things in 1997 was that Labour and the LibDems took so many rural Tory seats that - if I recall correctly - it became possible to travel from Lands End to Hull without ever going through any Tory-held seat. And you could go Lands End to John O'Groats if you were willing to cross just one Tory seat (Ryedale in Yorkshire, as I recall). I wonder what the comparable situation will be tomorrow...