UK General Election 2024

[Busaholic]

That's the opposite of cynical!

And well said!

Seconded.

 

[Kaliwax]

Another St Albans voter here. If you are looking for a party that has exactly the policies you want, you will have either a long wait or be very lucky. I learned a while ago that voting was about choosing the party who had policies that you disagreed with the least. Also, voting for a candidate who you could look in the eye and trust was at least trying to do the right thing for the country and consituents (which, in my experience of meeting several hundred MPs, a significant majority are). As you said, the previous St Albans MP failed badly on the latter measure (her most notable speech in 14 years as an MP was about dog poo).

My vote is already in, but if I were you I would vote LD mostly because their policies align most closely to yours, and partly because Daisy Cooper will be a decent and hard working MP.

Anne Main's website is still up hasn't been updated since 2019, when she lost her seat. I thought MPs website's would get taken down once they lost their seat or no longer an MP

 

[MotCO]

It is not clear what point are you making? Could you clarify? They haven't lost a lot of support over immigration or Brexit. They have lost support for being corrupt, incompetent, out of touch, simpletons who, amongst other successes, doubled peoples mortgages, crashed the economy, gave their mates billons of our money, oved "wine time Friday while the Queen sat alone at her husbands funeral and are happy to pump excrement into the rivers.

but yeah, Immigration and implementing Brexit, blaa Di blaa blaa.

EDIT - i lived in Rishi Sunaks constituency for many years. It is solid, old school Tory. Proper farming squirarchy. He has lost many of them. Some of them, FARMERS, are even voting Labour because they feel they have better farming policies! Even the NFU (!) seems anti Tory these days, If you have lost the yackers you are in trouble as a Tory! Of the 5 farmers i know in that area thankfully only one has fallen for the grift of Farage. The others just want adults in charge!

I follow Harry Metcalf's farming youtube channel https://www.youtube.com/@harrysfarmvids and he tells it as it is. One thing I find incredible is that he is being paid more to leave fields empty rather than grow crops; some of his neighbouring farms are leaving half of their fields empty. How does this square with being more self-sufficient, and less dependent on the vagaries of global political actions to provide food, and what about the impact on carbon emissions of transporting food halfway round the world? Surely a Conservative government should be encouraging farmers to farm and the country to be more self-sufficient.

 

[ainsworth74]

It replaced the Community Charge (often termed the Poll Tax) introduced by Margaret Thatcher.

I have to say it's mildly incredible to me that over thirty years later there are still people (over around the age of 50/55ish) who still refer to Council Tax as the Poll Tax. "I've had my Poll Tax bill in" etc etc. It's remarkable how much of scar that left on people. Though, then again, hearing people refer to "the dole" or the "DSS/DHSS" when neither of those have been around for quite a while now either!

Either way the need to reform the way we fund local government is becoming increasingly urgent. At some point, someone is going to have to grasp the nettle.

 

[DarloRich]

I follow Harry Metcalf's farming youtube channel https://www.youtube.com/@harrysfarmvids and he tells it as it is. One thing I find incredible is that he is being paid more to leave fields empty rather than grow crops; some of his neighbouring farms are leaving half of their fields empty. How does this square with being more self-sufficient, and less dependent on the vagaries of global political actions to provide food, and what about the impact on carbon emissions of transporting food halfway round the world? Surely a Conservative government should be encouraging farmers to farm and the country to be more self-sufficient.

"set aside" and other such no use/ low intensity farming techniques have long been part of the subsidy/grant regime.

 

[WesternLancer]

Then what tax do you propose? Council tax isn't perfect but has the advantage of being almost impossible to avoid legally.

The problem for councils is that the large majority of their expenditure goes on schools and particularly housing. Areas that have higher needs for housing are the ones that are poorer so they have less council tax income. As such councils with larger incomes typically have smaller expenses and those with less income have higher expenses. To 'fix' this the government provided grants to councils, which the current (for today...) Conservative government has significantly reduced. This is why the councils going bankrupt tend to be Labour ones in poorer areas.

It would be good to see housing provided by councils paid for by the government with council tax only going to roads, parks, libraries etc. Potentially with a council tax supplement going to the government.

Actually the main large area of council spend is costs of care for older people. Either at home or paying care home fees. Not council housing. It’s not allowed to pay for council housing out of council tax. Tho c tax will pay for b&b for homeless ppl.

Your broader points tho are correct and good ones.

 

[SynthD]

Labour, who will never act on fulfilling Brexit, and do anything about immigration. Then there's the Tax thing, why would a conservative suddenly sway left, effectively saying yes to more taxes.

The parties don’t differ. Labour is also trying to make Brexit work (which the vast majority don’t think works) and is also making populist claims about reducing migrants in boats (rather than refuting the focus on illegal migration). The conservatives are raising taxes, their claim of 2k rise from Labour was met with claims of 3k from them. We are not served by the options, and not by the false help offered in binary terms.

 

[WesternLancer]

But then again they have the triple lock pension...

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Jul 2024 ==

Well, my final leaflet tally is in.
Tory 2.
Green 2.
Reform 1.
Labour 0.
Lib Dem, around 1000, but thats because I've been out delivering them. However, there were at least 6 distinct leaflets, and 2 individually addressed letters during the campaign period, and several more in advance of the election announcement.

No morning of poll leaflets?

 

[david1212]

You need around 150 MPs to shadow all the government ministers and supply members for select committees, so if we end up with the second place party way short of that even if one party is official opposition they may need to co-operate with the other parties. It could be very interesting indeed.

I have pondered if the Conservatives will have sufficient MP's to be an effective opposition so interesting to have a number. Labour could win 400+ seats which would leave under 250 split between Conservative, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid Cymru, Green, Reform, Independents and any others I've not listed. If Labour only win around 350 the Conservatives could still have rather less than 150.

 

[JonathanH]

I have pondered if the Conservatives will have sufficient MP's to be an effective opposition so interesting to have a number.

Why do we need the Conservatives to be an effective opposition? They have completely destroyed any credibility they might have once had. Arguably we need consensus politics to try and rebuild.

 

[AlterEgo]

If anyone is wondering where Jeremy Hunt has been all this time, he's been gifting tap water to the constituents in the seat he looks set to lose:

x.com

x.com

What a legacy.

 

[bavvo]

No morning of poll leaflets?

No, well not from my lot anyway Of course, something may turn up in the morning....

 

[Saint66]

Another St Albans voter here. If you are looking for a party that has exactly the policies you want, you will have either a long wait or be very lucky. I learned a while ago that voting was about choosing the party who had policies that you disagreed with the least. Also, voting for a candidate who you could look in the eye and trust was at least trying to do the right thing for the country and consituents (which, in my experience of meeting several hundred MPs, a significant majority are). As you said, the previous St Albans MP failed badly on the latter measure (her most notable speech in 14 years as an MP was about dog poo).

My vote is already in, but if I were you I would vote LD mostly because their policies align most closely to yours, and partly because Daisy Cooper will be a decent and hard working MP.

This very much reflects my view point too as a St Albans voter. Daisy Cooper has been a massive improvement on the previous Tory MP, and seems to work very hard across the constituency.

 

[WesternLancer]

This very much reflects my view point too as a St Albans voter. Daisy Cooper has been a massive improvement on the previous Tory MP, and seems to work very hard across the constituency.

I thought she came across as pretty competent in tv debate etc even tho I’m no Lib Dem voter.

 

[Energy]

Actually the main large area of council spend is costs of care for older people. Either at home or paying care home fees. Not council housing. It’s not allowed to pay for council housing out of council tax. Tho c tax will pay for b&b for homeless ppl.

Your broader points tho are correct and good ones.

Thanks, corrected.

 

[GusB]

I've finally looked at the leaflet pile that I had so far ignored. The tally was:

2 x Con (one of which actually came through before the election was announced)
2 x SNP
1 x Lab
1 x SGP (it's unusual for the Greens to put up a candidate for Westminster)
1 x Scottish Family Party (least said about that bunch of muppets, the better)

Although I did briefly consider the Green candidate, I voted SNP. I'm now in a new constituency made up from bits of Moray and the previous Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey (INBS). Tory DRoss was elected in the former the last time around and the latter was SNP, but with the Cons in second place, so I decided to go with the one that was most likely to oust the Tory.

Interestingly, there was nothing at all from the LibDems. They've never really done well here in Moray, but historically they've done well in Highland constituencies; it'll be interesting to see if the vote share picks up this time around. It wasn't so long ago that the INBS seat was LibDem - remember Danny Alexander?

Similarly, Labour has never had a huge following here (they were second in 1997), but historically they've had a following in and around Inverness. It'll be interesting to see if there's any uplift in the Labour vote in that area this time around.

 

[E27007]

Regards Council Tax, I would like to see something done. I live in a 3 bed semi, with my other half, total of 2 adults paying full whack. The house next door has husband, wife, both working, with their 2 adult "children" both working full time. How is it fair that I have to pay the same as the 4 nextdoor.....

In the 1980s, over several terms of office, the Conservatives proposed to replace Domestic Rates based upon an address with a Poll Tax, ie every adult pays. When the Govt set about introducing a Poll Tax, the result was rioting in the streets.
The Poll Tax was dropped and replaced by the Community Charge, which is a hybrid of Domestic Rates and a Poll Tax

 

[Gloster]

Polling stations open in a couple of minutes. Vote for who you think is best, but there is nothing wrong in voting against a party or individual if you think that is best. But think and vote.

 

[Cross City]

I struggle to understand people's thought processes. Maybe I'm looking at it very simplistically. But, agree, disagree, it's irrelevant, but the Conservatives were originally voted in. Now they have apparently lost a lot of support over not acting on Immigration and implementing Brexit, blaa Di blaa blaa. So, I get that people are annoyed with them for not fulfilling their wishes if that was your opinion. But why would someone with Conservative values, suddenly just vote for Labour, who will never act on fulfilling Brexit, and do anything about immigration. Then there's the Tax thing, why would a conservative suddenly sway left, effectively saying yes to more taxes.

Because, despite what the Tories and Reform would have you believe, most people don't really give two hoots about immigration, and this is NOT an immigration election despite the wishes of Farage.

People care about the cost of housing, heating and food. All people need to do is look at their rent or mortgage payments now vs 2 years ago and vote accordingly.

Millions of people absolutely hate the Conservatives after Johnson partied while the country were locked down and the Truss debacle nearly tanked the economy in a matter of hours.

There are millions of 40-18 year old who will never vote Conservative. I should be right in their target demographic, but why would I vote for them when the means of me obtaining things I'd like to conserve (owning a home, a decent pension, being able to afford to start a family or maybe even wishing to more to Europe with zero fuss) have been taken away from me and made impossible or near to it as is possible?

Go out there and vote these disgusting criminals out.

 

[Kaliwax]

Already been and voted to get it out of the way. I voted for the Green Party, voted for the party with the policies that would benefit me and my group the most.

 

[AntoniC]

Came back from voting at 7.10 am and there were 5 people ahead of me voting !
I voted Labour to hopefully dislodge the previous Tory MP.

 

[nw1]

I assume there will be very, very few (if any) Conservative gains this time round, so any new entrants would be limited to those standing in seats that stay Tory but have the incumbent standing down. Are there any of them?

Grayling and Blunt's seats (Epsom and Ewell, and Reigate) spring to mind as Tory seats where the incumbents are standing down and are likely to stay Tory.

Hancock's is another one.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Jul 2024 ==

I struggle to understand people's thought processes. Maybe I'm looking at it very simplistically. But, agree, disagree, it's irrelevant, but the Conservatives were originally voted in. Now they have apparently lost a lot of support over not acting on Immigration and implementing Brexit, blaa Di blaa blaa. So, I get that people are annoyed with them for not fulfilling their wishes if that was your opinion. But why would someone with Conservative values, suddenly just vote for Labour, who will never act on fulfilling Brexit, and do anything about immigration. Then there's the Tax thing, why would a conservative suddenly sway left, effectively saying yes to more taxes.

Perhaps a lot of people were happy to give Boris a chance 5 years ago but have seen that the Conservatives have done precisely nothing for the country in the intervening time, and have therefore changed who they support.

Remember Dec 2019 was before Partygate, before the Pincher and Paterson scandals, before Trussonomics, and before Sunak's ineffectual government.

 

[birchesgreen]

One interesting aspect will be these missing postal votes. If the missing votes in a constituency are larger than the majority of the winner then a legal challenge can be mounted and mostly likely the election in that constituency re-done. This could happen in a number of places.

Now it shouldn't affect the overall result though if some scenarios come true it could leave the question of who is the official opposition open.

 

[nw1]

The parties don’t differ. Labour is also trying to make Brexit work (which the vast majority don’t think works) and is also making populist claims about reducing migrants in boats (rather than refuting the focus on illegal migration).

Mind you I think this is just to win the election in socially-conservative seats. If they didn't, you'd have Sunak and the Tories going on and on about how Labour are soft on immigration, etc, and that could have threatened a Tory victory.

While they probably won't go into reverse gear, I suspect once they're in (assuming they do win) you'll find very little from Labour about immigration, and absolutely no singing the praises of the Tory pet project that is Brexit. They will no longer have any need to do so, and they will focus on other priorities which are more important than immigration.

 

[JonathanH]

Grayling and Blunt's seats (Epsom and Ewell, and Reigate) spring to mind as Tory seats where the incumbents are standing down and are likely to stay Tory.

At least some polls suggest that Epsom and Ewell will fall to the Liberal Democrats.

Reigate is more difficult for the other parties. A Labour victory requires a large Reform vote to take votes from the Conservative candidate but Labour and Liberal Democrat polled the same in 2019 so there is no clear tactical vote.

 

[InkyScrolls]

The poll on this thread has had six members stating that they are voting Conservative. Would any of those six (at the time of writing) be able to explain their reasoning?

 

[bspahh]

Grayling and Blunt's seats (Epsom and Ewell, and Reigate) spring to mind as Tory seats where the incumbents are standing down and are likely to stay Tory.

Hancock's is another one.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Jul 2024 ==

These are the favourites and 2nd favourites with the odds from Oddschecker

	Constituency	Favourite	2nd Favourite
Chris Grayling	Epsom and Ewell	Liberal Democrats (4/5)	Conservatives (6/5)
Matt Hancock	Suffolk West	Labour (3/5)	Conservatives (13/8)
Liz Truss	South West Norfolk	Labour (8/11)	Conservatives (11/8)
Richi Sunak	Richmond and North Allerton	Conservatives (2/5)	Labour (3/1)
Suella Braverman	Fareham & Waterlooville	Conservatives (1/2)	Labour (5/2)
Penny Mordaunt	Portsmouth North	Labour (8/15)	Conservatives (7/4)
Nigel Farage	Clacton	Reform (1/7)	Conservatives (8/1)
Richard Tice	Boston and Skegness	Reform (evens)	Conservatives (6/4)
Jacob Rees Mogg	Somerset North East & Hanham	Labour (1/5)	Conservatives (7/2)

 

[jfollows]

Because, despite what the Tories and Reform would have you believe, most people don't really give two hoots about immigration, and this is NOT an immigration election despite the wishes of Farage.

I agree, it would make sense if we could have a reasoned debate about legal immigration, its pros and cons, and what to do about it, but it won't happen.
Like leaving the EU, the "problem" has its genesis with David Cameron who said something like "no ifs and buts, we will bring net migration down to tens of thousands per year, I guarantee it" and then look at what happened.
My husband is a legal immigrant and now a citizen, so I've seen the system from an angle, but it's vastly different (and vastly more expensive) now than it was 20 years ago.
I don't live in an area in which "they are stealing our jobs" but I don't really believe that anyway. And I'm ashamed of our country for the knee-jerk reaction against refugees and the like and - if nothing else - the good result of today's election will be to kill the obnoxious, cruel and un-British policy of sending refugees to Rwanda.

EDIT David Cameron's speech on 25 March 2013 at https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/david-camerons-immigration-speech:

But while I’ve always believed in the benefits of migration and immigration, I’ve also always believed that immigration has to be properly controlled. Without proper controls, community confidence is sapped, resources are stretched and the benefits that immigration can bring are lost or forgotten. As I’ve long‑argued, under the previous government immigration was far too high and the system was badly out of control. Net migration needs to come down radically from hundreds of thousands a year, to just tens of thousands, and as we bring net migration down so we must also make sure that Britain continues to benefit from it.

FURTHER Ah, and the words I was looking for from him on 14 April 2011 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13083781):

Today I can confidently say that we are getting there.
If we take the steps set out today, and deal with all the different avenues of migration, legal and illegal, then levels of immigration can return to where they were in the 1980s and 90s, a time when immigration was not a front rank political issue.
And I believe that will mean net migration to this country will be in the order of tens of thousands each year, not the hundreds of thousands every year that we have seen over the last decade.
Yes, Britain will always be open to the best and brightest from around the world and those fleeing persecution.
But with us, our borders will be under control and immigration will be at levels our country can manage.
No ifs. No buts.
That's a promise we made to the British people. And it's a promise we are keeping.

I am surprised this dates from so long ago - it's an issue which has been cooking for many years, and I think the Conservatives have done the cooking and "invented" a problem out of proportion to reality which has turned on them.

 

[railfan99]

Someone may have told me previously, but I've fogotten, and couldn't find an answer on any site - how many days after Thursday can postal votes be received and still be valid for the count?

Given first past the post is so different to preferential voting, at the last general election in 2019 were any seats decided by a handful of votes?

 

[nw1]

I agree, it would make sense if we could have a reasoned debate about legal immigration, its pros and cons, and what to do about it, but it won't happen.
Like leaving the EU, the "problem" has its genesis with David Cameron who said something like "no ifs and buts, we will bring net migration down to tens of thousands per year, I guarantee it" and then look at what happened.
My husband is a legal immigrant and now a citizen, so I've seen the system from an angle, but it's vastly different (and vastly more expensive) now than it was 20 years ago.
I don't live in an area in which "they are stealing our jobs" but I don't really believe that anyway. And I'm ashamed of our country for the knee-jerk reaction against refugees and the like and - if nothing else - the good result of today's election will be to kill the obnoxious, cruel and un-British policy of sending refugees to Rwanda.

EDIT David Cameron's speech on 25 March 2013 at https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/david-camerons-immigration-speech:

FURTHER Ah, and the words I was looking for from him on 14 April 2011 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13083781):

I am surprised this dates from so long ago - it's an issue which has been cooking for many years, and I think the Conservatives have done the cooking and "invented" a problem out of proportion to reality which has turned on them.

Indeed, before the credit crunch and the aftermath of austerity, it was really only a few hard right-wingers banging on about immigration. It seemed to be sometime during the Cameron-Osborne austerity years that it started becoming "fashionable" amongst certain demographics to get into immigrant-bashing. If I had to put a date on it, probably late 2012/early 2013; it seemed to happen sometime between the London Olympics of 2012 and the Eastleigh by-election (local to me, saw a lot of the posters) in early 2013 which saw a large UKIP vote and, as a result. the Tories failing to gain the seat, at least for a while.

Your observation about citizenship and how it's more difficult to get it now compared to the Blair years suggests that the "hostile environment" of recent Tory governments isn't restricted to the EU or asylum-seekers either, but any other country, besides Ireland.