UK General Election 2024

[PGAT]

I suppose so, if Tory+Reform co-join. This is unchartered territory, I suppose some Lab MP's could then tactically defect to the LD's to make them the official opposition, but whatever it looks like at PMQ's the SNP will lose their two questions.

I think it would be in their best interests to merge but both the parties have shown that this won’t happen

 

[takno]

I think it would be in their best interests to merge but both the parties have shown that this won’t happen

I suspect that if they merged it would force a lot Conservative members in the moderate wing to review their allegiances. You could well end up cementing the Lib Dems as the opposition, and leaving Conservative/Reform as an unacceptable extremist party who nobody ever wants to allow into government.

 

[Energy]

I suppose so, if Tory+Reform co-join.

Reform are likely to be getting single digit number of seats, though it may just be enough to get them to be the opposition over the LibDems.

A LibDem/Conservatives coalition opposition seems very unlikely. They now have very different priorities and the Conservative name is pretty toxic.

I suspect that if they merged it would force a lot Conservative members in the moderate wing to review their allegiances. You could well end up cementing the Lib Dems as the opposition, and leaving Conservative/Reform as an unacceptable extremist party who nobody ever wants to allow into government.

Agreed, a lot of centrist Conservatives are still in the party but confined to back benches. I'd expect many of them go jump ship if Farage was in charge.

The UK is a place which tolerates both sides and is fairly central, Corbyn has shown that extreme at either left or right is alienating to most voters.

 

[Kaliwax]

You shouldn't. You should feel angry. As are many of us, that food banks are now commonplace and a necessity.

Your are right it's the 21st century and yet the poor are still treated with the same disdain as they was 200 years ago

Why do younger people get paid less than older people for doing the same job? Never made sense to me

 

[m0ffy]

A LibDem/Conservatives coalition opposition seems very unlikely. They now have very different priorities and the Conservative name is pretty toxic.

Surprisingly, my local authority is run by a lib/con coalition which formed last year when the two parties came second and third in local elections. I’m not sure how this would play out nationally, but it has firmly dashed any ideas of lib/lab cooperation.

 

[birchesgreen]

You need around 150 MPs to shadow all the government ministers and supply members for select committees, so if we end up with the second place party way short of that even if one party is official opposition they may need to co-operate with the other parties. It could be very interesting indeed.

 

[Kaliwax]

I can't ever see Reform and Tories ever working together. A couple of right-wing journalists wanted all the right-wing parties, to merge, Reform, Reclaim, UKIP, Heritage Party, but egos stopped that from happening apparently, especially Richard Tice's

 

[Howardh]

Reform are likely to be getting single digit number of seats, though it may just be enough to get them to be the opposition over the LibDems.

A LibDem/Conservatives coalition opposition seems very unlikely. They now have very different priorities and the Conservative name is pretty toxic.

Agreed, a lot of centrist Conservatives are still in the party but confined to back benches. I'd expect many of them go jump ship if Farage was in charge.

The UK is a place which tolerates both sides and is fairly central, Corbyn has shown that extreme at either left or right is alienating to most voters.

I would say 0% chance of that. They are now opposite ends of the political spectrum, especially if Badenoch/Braverman get anywhere near leadership.

Of course there's the possibility that moderate Tories will eventually take over and the party returns to the centre ground; but I doubt any newbies will want to rock the boat in the early days.

 

[takno]

Surprisingly, my local authority is run by a lib/con coalition which formed last year when the two parties came second and third in local elections. I’m not sure how this would play out nationally, but it has firmly dashed any ideas of lib/lab cooperation.

My local authority is run by a Lab/Lib/Conservative coalition. That's the thing with local authorities - somebody's got to step up and run things, and that sometimes results in weird groupings.

I don't see a lib/con opposition in the offing at national level though. I assume the reason the question was asked was with reference to con/referendum or lib/snp/green coalitions.

 

[Ediswan]

I assume the reason the question was asked was with reference to con/referendum or lib/snp/green coalitions.

I asked the question out of interest, no particular combinations in mind.

 

[takno]

I asked the question out of interest, no particular combinations in mind.

Fair enough. If some of the more extreme predictions come true then there's a question over whether there are enough people in one party to cover all the shadow briefs (and whether that's actually a problem). All seems pretty unprecedented though, and quite likely not to happen anyway.

 

[gg1]

I am tactically lending my Lib Dem vote to....Labour.

The only real question of the evening will be which party (Tory/LD) will be the official opposition?

I'm still convinced the polling is over estimating the size of the Tory defeat. I can't see anyone other than the Tories being the official opposition but it's very possible they could end up with less MPs than all the smaller opposition parties combined, a situation I don't think either of the two main parties have been in in living memory.

 

[simonw]

Reform are likely to be getting single digit number of seats, though it may just be enough to get them to be the opposition over the LibDems.

Don't understand this statement. There is no way that Reform will get more seats than the LDs or that the reform will be the opposition.

 

[SuspectUsual]

but I doubt any newbies will want to rock the boat in the early days

Which raises an interesting question (for me at least)

How many new-entrant Tory MPs are there likely to be this year?

I assume there will be very, very few (if any) Conservative gains this time round, so any new entrants would be limited to those standing in seats that stay Tory but have the incumbent standing down. Are there any of them?

 

[Kaliwax]

I think I read somewhere a civil servant or someone working in the PM Office when David Cameron was PM is standing as a tory candidate this time. I forgot her name now

 

[Energy]

Don't understand this statement. There is no way that Reform will get more seats than the LDs or that the reform will be the opposition.

Apologies for being unclear. I meant that LibDems and Conservatives are close in some polls, so if the LibDems win slightly more seats the single-digit Reform MPs could be enough for Conservative+Reform to be the opposition.

It still seems unlikely to me though as they risk losing their more central voters and getting an even worse result at the following election. And of course, Reform could be zero seats or likely just Mr Farage.

 

[JamesT]

Which raises an interesting question (for me at least)

How many new-entrant Tory MPs are there likely to be this year?

I assume there will be very, very few (if any) Conservative gains this time round, so any new entrants would be limited to those standing in seats that stay Tory but have the incumbent standing down. Are there any of them?

There are 75 Conservative MPs standing down this time. It may be that all of those seats are lost to another party, but any retained would be a new MP.

 

[Gloster]

Which raises an interesting question (for me at least)

How many new-entrant Tory MPs are there likely to be this year?

I assume there will be very, very few (if any) Conservative gains this time round, so any new entrants would be limited to those standing in seats that stay Tory but have the incumbent standing down. Are there any of them?

There are 74 Conservatives standing down and I would expect that at least some of them will be in ‘safe’ seats, if a such thing still exists for the party. I would be surprised if all of Epsom & Ewell, Maidenhead, Rochford & Southend East, Tunbridge Wells or Wokingham (or their successors) fell.

EDIT: It is 75 MPs, including one ex-SNP, but two others defected to Labour and are standing down, as are four independents who were elected as Conservative. One of the independents is Reigate and if they lose that they are deep in it.

 

[Cross City]

There are 74 Conservatives standing down and I would expect that at least some of them will be in ‘safe’ seats, if a such thing still exists for the party. I would be surprised if all of Epsom & Ewell, Maidenhead, Rochford & Southend East, Tunbridge Wells or Wokingham (or their successors) fell.

Sajid Javid's 23k majority is in serious danger of being overturned (he is standing down however.)

 

[DarloRich]

I think I read somewhere a civil servant or someone working in the PM Office when David Cameron was PM is standing as a tory candidate this time. I forgot her name now

if they are actually a civil servant as long as they have resigned thier post there is no issue. If it is a political advisor or SPAD then they are not civil servants. It is fairly common for political advisors to seek election. One such example is Ed Balls.

 

[Snow1964]

I asked the question out of interest, no particular combinations in mind.

Our constitution and the rules don't really exist, it's more doing it by convention.

In theory, could get Lib Dem and Conservatives both getting say 75 seats, possibly never happened and maybe need to toss a coin to be leader of opposition.

I think I read somewhere that need 3 MPs in your party, to get parliamentary info, so when Caroline Lucas was sole Green Party MP, she made a deal with Plaid Cymru to forward her the info, so tie-ups and alliances can happen in unusual ways

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I suspect that if they merged it would force a lot Conservative members in the moderate wing to review their allegiances. You could well end up cementing the Lib Dems as the opposition, and leaving Conservative/Reform as an unacceptable extremist party who nobody ever wants to allow into government.

This would be a good outcome as we need a decent centrist grouping

 

[WesternLancer]

My local authority is run by a Lab/Lib/Conservative coalition. That's the thing with local authorities - somebody's got to step up and run things, and that sometimes results in weird groupings.

who are their opposition? A lot of random independents or is it eg SNP?

 

[SynthD]

leaving Conservative/Reform as an unacceptable extremist party who nobody ever wants to allow into government.

That would mean MPs share the feelings of the electorate, which is not the case often enough.

Have any political columnists considered Sunak’s outgoing nominations for Lords?

 

[ainsworth74]

Have any political columnists considered Sunak’s outgoing nominations for Lords?

We can only hope that Starmer tells him to bog off. I don't mind quite so much outgoing PMs giving gongs to staffers, but elevating them to the legislature is crackers and needs to stop.

 

[takno]

who are their opposition? A lot of random independents or is it eg SNP?

SNP and Greens

 

[brad465]

I can't ever see Reform and Tories ever working together. A couple of right-wing journalists wanted all the right-wing parties, to merge, Reform, Reclaim, UKIP, Heritage Party, but egos stopped that from happening apparently, especially Richard Tice's

Yes parties on either extreme have form for struggling to get on (and when they do, it's short lived). This is evident in the European Parliament where the effects of a rise in the number of seats right wing parties gaining being spread out over multiple groups. On the left this is evident in the multiple left of centre parties in the UK being more numerous than right of centre; the latter has 2 prominent parties while the former has at least 4-5.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

We can only hope that Starmer tells him to bog off. I don't mind quite so much outgoing PMs giving gongs to staffers, but elevating them to the legislature is crackers and needs to stop.

Im dead against this look at what Johnson is a good enough reason not to allow any of this.

 

[GardenRail]

Regards Council Tax, I would like to see something done. I live in a 3 bed semi, with my other half, total of 2 adults paying full whack. The house next door has husband, wife, both working, with their 2 adult "children" both working full time. How is it fair that I have to pay the same as the 4 nextdoor.....

 

[takno]

Regards Council Tax, I would like to see something done. I live in a 3 bed semi, with my other half, total of 2 adults paying full whack. The house next door has husband, wife, both working, with their 2 adult "children" both working full time. How is it fair that I have to pay the same as the 4 nextdoor.....

The point is to tax some combination of wealth and usage of space. There's a bit of a housing shortage on, and it sounds like next door might be doing their bit by not moving out and taking up more residences.

Have you considered taking in a lodger?