What is the point of advance fares?

[Dr Day]

Ref TfW are these ‘dirt cheap’ fares on routes shared with other operators or eg the Cambrian? If the former then they are most likely intended to grow TfW/WG’s revenue at the expense of DfT/UK Treasury. If the latter then maybe there is more genuine yield management to grow revenue at quieter times and redistribute loads.

Advance should probably be renamed ‘train specific’ if these tickets can be purchased on the day, but the current mechanics allow the operator to withdraw or limit availability should they wish to.

 

[yorkie]

Th re is a thread to discuss potential name changes at:

Ticket type names should be changed

Moderator note: Split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/regional-railcard-validity.269761 The name of Advance tickets really shoudl be changed to avoid confusion. Inflexible, perhaps?

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[Buzby]

What? How is travelling on the wrong train the only way to tell whether someone has travelled? If there are scans at both stations on the ticket, then the individual has presumably travelled. Similarly if they are scanned on board the correct train.

The inverse of this being my point - if not scanned is this equal to it not being used? Look at the penultimate paragraph in message #21 (aparently not)!

 

[yorkie]

The inverse of this being my point - if not scanned is this equal to it not being used? Look at the penultimate paragraph in message #21 (aparently not)!

No.

 

[nwales58]

Dirt cheap TfW advances? On the day (now)
Carmarthen-Cardiff 10.50, 60% off single, not bad (though I've paid about 5 midweek).
Aberystwyth-Shrewsbury 18.90, for a similar distance and time, 25% off.
Of course for a return journey even 50% off is not cheap where saver is only slightly more than single.

My criticism is that, long distance from the Cambrian at least, although TfW do use tiers the biggest effects seems to be a simple number of weeks ahead profile not well tailored to how busy trains are on the busiest stretch. Pricing people off, rather than onto, Birmingham-Wolverhampton would be a start.

E.g. Porthmadog-Birmingham advances are available to 08/08 at 15.20 (no advances after that yet) maybe 18.30 on PM peak trains from Birmingham which will be overfull. And surely you need to be selling up to the end of school holidays at least so you can get people to book fixed-time returns funnelled onto the quietest trains?

Llandudno-Manchester looks similar, cheapest tier of the day available even on the busiest trains. And only 5-6 weeks ahead.

My impression is of an automatic machine which has been set up in a fairly general way rather than to fill empty seats.

 

[Krokodil]

Are they "dirt cheap"? No one is denying there are more advances. They are becoming the "standard fare" to most people.

Rhyl to Manchester for £14 at the busiest time on an August Monday (holiday camp kick-out time).

Ref TfW are these ‘dirt cheap’ fares on routes shared with other operators or eg the Cambrian?

All flows except for the Cardiff Valley Lines I think. Only on journeys entirely on TfW trains, if you're connecting with other operators you've either got whatever Advances were already in place for that flow or you'll need to split.

If the former then they are most likely intended to grow TfW/WG’s revenue at the expense of DfT/UK Treasury.

ORCATS-dodging is partly what is going on.

If the latter then maybe there is more genuine yield management to grow revenue at quieter times and redistribute loads.

I concur with @nwales58 that there appears to be no attempt at yield management, almost all trains for a given flow are showing the same tier available. In the few places that there are different prices shown it is probable that the usual tier has sold out and stepped up to the next one. Take a look at Rhyl to Chester tomorrow. Apart from the 05:33 which is showing the Anytime fare (despite not exactly being a busy train at that point), every other train that day is showing an Advance at £9.10. Even the departures flagged "Usually busy".

 

[Tazi Hupefi]

The other, and actually quite significant factor in all of this which seems to have been overlooked is abuse/misuse of tickets.

1) People are generally more willing to pay for something that seems good value, as the risk/reward element of dodging their fare is rebalanced in the TOCs favour. Why buy a cheap ticket just to get through the barriers when you can pay just a little more (or even less!) and get a legitimate ticket for your entire journey without the stress of being caught.

2) Sharing tickets / fraudulently refunding or reusing is virtually eliminated with Advance fares due to the terms and conditions.

3) Post-journey admin (including delay repay, customer relations issues etc) is substantially easier to manage/process/reduce risk as the ticket(s) have fixed itineraries.

4) If it's not checked for whatever reason, especially in urban areas / busy trains where ticket checks can be difficult - it doesn't really matter all that much - certainly in relation to frauds referenced in point 2 above.

 

[redreni]

In 2006 when I returned to the UK from Canada, the regulated fares were quite reasonable compared to what they are now, and the advances were generally dirt cheap. They were billed as a way of attracting new business to fill seats that would otherwise remain empty. And I could see the logic - I spent one football season living in Leicester and travelling to the south of England every weekend, which I absolutely couldn't have afforded to do had I not been able to pick up advance singles for £10 or less on a fairly reliable basis (with a railcard discount).

It's entirely different when the regulated fares are often out of most people's reach and, when challenged on this, ministers and TOC press officers routinely point to unregulated advance fares and say "see, look, it's not as expensive as you think". Well I'm sorry, if the Advance fares are being quoted by politicians, including in Parliament, and we're being invited to form a view on whether we're striking the right balance between public subsidy and fares revenue based on Advance fares, then it's not good enough to have pricing and quota-setting completely unregulated. Not remotely good enough.

Many of the companies that price these fares and control the quotas are public authorities. The complete opacity of their decision-making regarding pricing and quotas for advance fares is inappropriate as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Hadders]

In 2006 when I returned to the UK from Canada, the regulated fares were quite reasonable compared to what they are now, and the advances were generally dirt cheap. They were billed as a way of attracting new business to fill seats that would otherwise remain empty. And I could see the logic - I spent one football season living in Leicester and travelling to the south of England every weekend, which I absolutely couldn't have afforded to do had I not been able to pick up advance singles for £10 or less on a fairly reliable basis (with a railcard discount).

It's entirely different when the regulated fares are often out of most people's reach and, when challenged on this, ministers and TOC press officers routinely point to unregulated advance fares and say "see, look, it's not as expensive as you think". Well I'm sorry, if the Advance fares are being quoted by politicians, including in Parliament, and we're being invited to form a view on whether we're striking the right balance between public subsidy and fares revenue based on Advance fares, then it's not good enough to have pricing and quota-setting completely unregulated. Not remotely good enough.

Many of the companies that price these fares and control the quotas are public authorities. The complete opacity of their decision-making regarding pricing and quotas for advance fares is inappropriate as far as I'm concerned.

Since privatisation regulated fares are only allowed to increase by a specified amount each year, generally RPI but there has been some exceptions.

Interestingly since 1995 regulated fares have increased by less than RPI

Taking 1995 as 100.0

RPI in 2023 is 249.9
London & South East Regulated fares 235.8
Long Distance Regulated fares 234.0
Regional Regulated fares 228.1

For comparison, Long distance unregulated (standard class) is 307.6

Table 7180: Average change in fares by regulated and unregulated tickets | ORR Data Portal

 

[Krokodil]

Interestingly since 1995 regulated fares have increased by less than RPI

Without looking properly at the data, I suspect that the results would have been different if you were looking back at 2019. Having a period of high inflation where there has been some restraint in regulated fares beyond the usual RPI has distorted things a bit.

 

[redreni]

Since privatisation regulated fares are only allowed to increase by a specified amount each year, generally RPI but there has been some exceptions.

Interestingly since 1995 regulated fares have increased by less than RPI

Taking 1995 as 100.0

RPI in 2023 is 249.9
London & South East Regulated fares 235.8
Long Distance Regulated fares 234.0
Regional Regulated fares 228.1

For comparison, Long distance unregulated (standard class) is 307.6

Table 7180: Average change in fares by regulated and unregulated tickets | ORR Data Portal

Point taken, but when we talk about things going up, down or staying the same in real terms, that's generally understood to be by reference to the government's preferred measure of inflation, which hasn't been RPI for donkey's years..

 

[Hadders]

Without looking properly at the data, I suspect that the results would have been different if you were looking back at 2019. Having a period of high inflation where there has been some restraint in regulated fares beyond the usual RPI has distorted things a bit.

Position in 2019:

RPI in 2023 is 193.7
London & South East Regulated fares 204.1
Long Distance Regulated fares 202.3
Regional Regulated fares 203.4

For comparison, Long distance unregulated (standard class) is 276.8

Point taken, but when we talk about things going up, down or staying the same in real terms, that's generally understood to be by reference to the government's preferred measure of inflation, which hasn't been RPI for donkey's years..

The point is that regaulated fares have risen in price far less than unregulated fares. DfT/RDG/Treasury/TOCs want to abolish fares regulation but while it isn't perfect I absolutely dread to think what price fares would be if it didn't exist.

 

[redreni]

The point is that regaulated fares have risen in price far less than unregulated fares. DfT/RDG/Treasury/TOCs want to abolish fares regulation but while it isn't perfect I absolutely dread to think what price fares would be if it didn't exist.

Absolutely! It's obvious that one of the main advantages of Advance fares from their perspective is the ability to charge much higher fares, grow revenue and suppress demand.

If you're wealthy or you get your train tickets on expenses or you're on a good salary and get Priv discounts then you might, I suppose, regard pricing people off certain trains as a benefit to you as a passenger, because it means trains that would otherwise be overcrowded won't be. But the idea that, in broad terms, uncapped and unregulated Advance fares are anything other than a disaster for most passengers is, I think, fanciful.

I know nobody likes overcrowding, but it's needed to some extent to build pressure for capacity to be added to the network. If the capacity problem can be concealed by pricing people off trains, it will be very hard to win public support for the construction of new lines.

 

[Krokodil]

Position in 2019:

RPI in 2023 is 193.7
London & South East Regulated fares 204.1
Long Distance Regulated fares 202.3
Regional Regulated fares 203.4

Thought so. The last couple of years of suppressed annual fare rises is an exception to the history of RPI+ increases (I think that it was RPI+3 at one point).

For comparison, Long distance unregulated (standard class) is 276.8

Out of interest, does the unregulated figure actually include advances (for which it will need to consider the quotas available to the public as well as prices the tickets are charged at) or just the Anytimes etc? I can't find a mention in the notes.

Of course it's funny how the government uses RPI as the comparison, when CPI (or CPIH) is considered a better measure of inflation. Convenient, eh?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Jun 2024 ==

As I'm bored, I've entered the CPI figures into the spreadsheet as a comparison. CPI-linked prices in 2019 were 160.5% of 1995, in 2023 they were at 196.8%. So in 2020 the gap between standard class fares and CPI prices was at its widest, with fares having grown 43% faster than other prices (compared to 17% faster if you use RPI).

 

[Hadders]

Looking at the methodology the figures quoted above do include Advance tickets.

I don't think there was ever a blanket RPI+3% increase in regulated fares. I think it did apply for a few years to Southeastern when HS1 opened (possibly HS1 routed tickets maybe more). For the majority of regulated fares I think it's generally been RPI, or RPI-1% or RPI+1%. There was a time when TOCs had 'fares baskets' where the overall total of the basket could increase by the prescribed amount but within the basket some fares could vary by more. I'm sure TOCs took advantage of this to increase fares by more on popular flows....

 

[plugwash]

Another significant stealth increase has been adding more restrictions to off-peak fares, forcing people to either change their journey plans, use inflexible advance tickets, or pay anytime fares.

Certainly where I live, "saver returns" that did not involve London used to be virtually unrestricted and "cheap day returns" used to be restricted in the morning only. Nowadays Local off-peak day returns have evening restrictions, and off-peak returns set by TPE and Crosscountry generaly have morning restrictions. Fares set by Northern and TFW seem to be much less restricted, and Avanti only seem to care about London.

 

[Krokodil]

I don't think there was ever a blanket RPI+3% increase in regulated fares.

I've just checked, it was an item in the 2010 Spending Review but in the 2011 Autumn Statement Osborne U-turned and capped it at RPI+1. So it was never actually implemented.

 

[miklcct]

Ref TfW are these ‘dirt cheap’ fares on routes shared with other operators or eg the Cambrian? If the former then they are most likely intended to grow TfW/WG’s revenue at the expense of DfT/UK Treasury.

That's a good idea. Transport for Wales is a publicly-owned operator under the Welsh Government. They should work for the Welsh and benefit the Welsh. Any fare policies which grow local government's revenue at the expense of UK Treasury are good policies. Only local governments are accountable to local people and will take local passengers into considerations.

 

[Bikeman78]

Absolutely! It's obvious that one of the main advantages of Advance fares from their perspective is the ability to charge much higher fares, grow revenue and suppress demand.

If you're wealthy or you get your train tickets on expenses or you're on a good salary and get Priv discounts then you might, I suppose, regard pricing people off certain trains as a benefit to you as a passenger, because it means trains that would otherwise be overcrowded won't be. But the idea that, in broad terms, uncapped and unregulated Advance fares are anything other than a disaster for most passengers is, I think, fanciful.

I know nobody likes overcrowding, but it's needed to some extent to build pressure for capacity to be added to the network. If the capacity problem can be concealed by pricing people off trains, it will be very hard to win public support for the construction of new lines.

Classic case of be careful what you wish for. I do wonder why people are surprised that trains are packed on bank holiday weekends. No different to the M5 being at a standstill. If getting a seat is important, most IC routes have seat reservations or weekend first. I'll take a relatively cheap full and standing train over a dearer one with no one standing.

 

[redreni]

Classic case of be careful what you wish for. I do wonder why people are surprised that trains are packed on bank holiday weekends. No different to the M5 being at a standstill. If getting a seat is important, most IC routes have seat reservations or weekend first. I'll take a relatively cheap full and standing train over a dearer one with no one standing.

Nobody is ever surprised that trains are packed on a bank holiday, I shouldn't have thought.

But yes, I agree with your last sentence, with the caveat that we should be adding significant capacity to the network (and I don't just mean lengthening trains and platforms or putting on the odd extra weekend service where it can be squeezed in; I mean moving the fast intercity trains onto dedicated new high speed lines and running much more frequent regional services on consistent stopping patterns on the existing lines).

 

[Haywain]

Nobody is ever surprised that trains are packed on a bank holiday, I shouldn't have thought.

People are frequently surprised that trains are packed at bank holidays. I've spent years listening to the complaints.

 

[redreni]

People are frequently surprised that trains are packed at bank holidays. I've spent years listening to the complaints.

How extraordinary!

I can understand complaining about apparently avoidable overcrowding (e.g. if the train is short-formed and/or previous train cancelled), but not simply about the fact it's busy

 

[Bletchleyite]

People are frequently surprised that trains are packed at bank holidays. I've spent years listening to the complaints.

It'd be interesting to know whether the complaints are more or less vocal about being told "sold out, go away and drive" instead of it being packed.

(I know it doesn't mean quite what it says - but they won't know that)

 

[Haywain]

How extraordinary!

Not really, many people travel very rarely and have no idea about loadings and think that tickets will only be sold for available seats because that is what airlines do.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Jul 2024 ==

It'd be interesting to know whether the complaints are more or less vocal about being told "sold out, go away and drive" instead of it being packed.

The complaints I listened to were all before trains were "sold out" (ie: pre-CoVid).

 

[signed]

TER are 'Tarif Normal' though and those are (largely or all?) set by the regions.

Those are all set by regions since they own themselves all the rolling stock, and have all the timetabling power.
SNCF Voyageurs is merely the operator and has no say in the service base (apart from a consultative one maybe) which is why the service is so piss poor in frequency and capacity in some regions.

 

[Mark J]

Don't expect rail fares to get cheaper after next week. I simply don't see it happening.

Whoever wins the election next week is going to have a massive hole in the country's finances so there's not going to be any more money to give to the rail industry.

When you having an incoming Government that is heavy on the 'green agenda' (compared to the pre ious bunch); Allowing rail fares to massively increase through yearly inflation increases, or through the 'LNER' style pricing will fly in the face of this.

How can you expect people to do the right thing, ditch the car and use the trains, when it would be made financially prohibitive to do so.

Rail fare stabilisation should be coming from any 'green' budgets.

 

[Sonic1234]

How can you expect people to do the right thing, ditch the car and use the trains, when it would be made financially prohibitive to do so.

Does the Government really want you to do that? Cars are highly taxed, and then there is the extra revenue generated for local government from parking fees etc.

 

[Hadders]

When you having an incoming Government that is heavy on the 'green agenda' (compared to the pre ious bunch); Allowing rail fares to massively increase through yearly inflation increases, or through the 'LNER' style pricing will fly in the face of this.

How can you expect people to do the right thing, ditch the car and use the trains, when it would be made financially prohibitive to do so.

Rail fare stabilisation should be coming from any 'green' budgets.

Every new Government claims they’re going to be ‘Green’.

We’re not going to see a reduction in rail fares.

 

[redreni]

Every new Government claims they’re going to be ‘Green’.

We’re not going to see a reduction in rail fares.

I agree with that analysis - money will not be found for sustainable transport (neither major infrastructure projects nor significant new operational subsidies aimed at driving modal shift).

My only caveat is that I do not believe this is because 'there is no money'. It's because the new government has other priorities (some of which are easier for them to justify than others).

 

[Haywain]

Cars are highly taxed, and then there is the extra revenue generated for local government from parking fees etc.

Many would say that they are insufficiently taxed, but that is unrelated to Advance tickets.