as im pretty sure i have already said...
the DfT has (as i understand it) first refusal on stock... if they dont have a use for it then the ROSCO can lease it out to whoever they want...
Stock thats lease to a franchise is on contract for (in most cases) for the length of the franchise (and possibly beyond)...
stock that is leased to an open access firm like GC or FHT... will be on a set length contract...probably up to the end of the OAOs access rights
i again cant see the DfT being able to force a ROSCO to terminate a lease to an operator... not saying that they couldnt or wouldnt try... just that i cant see them being able to do so.
we already saw that the DfT had the 5x class 180 units (that hadnt already been leased by FHT and GC) ringfenced for use by EC or (as its now expected) GW. same as they did with the mk.3s that were originally planned for certain EC service/routes.
again re. the FG HST sets... despite my previous posts... i think its fair to say that FG wouldnt cut off their nose to spite their face... but you have to accept that FG are the owners of the HST sets and NOT a ROSCO... so while they could be asked/talked into leasing them to another operators if they lost the ICGW, that realistically FG dont HAVE to do anything that they dont want to do with the HSTs.
Also to clear up how the FG/FGW HST situation would work...
because FG own a few HST sets doesnt mean that FGW are getting their use for free... it most likely means that FGW is leasing the HSTs from FG.
We should also keep in mind that the DfT blocked Porterbrook leasing a HST set to FHT (despite negotiations being at an advanced stage) when there was the issue with the class 222 being dropped. in order to safeguard them/it for future use with AXC... forcing FHT to lease Mk.3s, a DVT and 86101 and run a connecting shuttle from doncater to hull using class 222s or borrowed/hired FTPX class 170/3s before the first class 180s arrived on the scene...
ICGW -Intercity Great Western Franchise
AXC - Arriva Cross Country
FG - First Group
FGW - First Great Western (First Greater Western)
FHT - First Hull Trains
FTPX - First Transpenine Express
GC - Grand Central
OAO - Open Access Operator
ROSCO - Railway Stock Leasing Company (ie. Eversholt, Porterbook, Angel Trains)
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unless of course the nasty evil First are going to lease every spare bit of rolling stock in the country just to spite their competitors!
its what i would do in their place... would give them a good reserve.. and the ability in theory to run additional services or just strengthen existing services or... would give the ability to offer more than the other bidders