Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[najaB]

My sister voted for Brexit by postal ballot in May 2015, but a combination of Jo Cox's murder and my gentle quizzing of her beliefs had led her to bitterly regret it by Referendum Day. I suspect the result would have been even closer if the postal votes were excluded.

Does the mechanism exist in UK elections/referenda, such as in many US states, to have your postal vote nullified by an in-person vote on the day?

 

[Peterthegreat]

Does the mechanism exist in UK elections/referenda, such as in many US states, to have your postal vote nullified by an in-person vote on the day?

Not if you've already posted your vote. However you can deliver your postal vote to the polling station on the day of the election.

 

[Gloster]

Does the mechanism exist in UK elections/referenda, such as in many US states, to have your postal vote nullified by an in-person vote on the day?

No. I think that you can’t vote in the polling station if you have been issued with a postal vote as the electoral roll that they tick your name off on will indicate that you are a postal voter, so they won’t give you a ballot paper. The exception is that you can take your postal vote into the polling station and hand it over to the staff there.

 

[brad465]

My sister voted for Brexit by postal ballot in May 2015, but a combination of Jo Cox's murder and my gentle quizzing of her beliefs had led her to bitterly regret it by Referendum Day. I suspect the result would have been even closer if the postal votes were excluded.

Did you mean May 2016?

 

[jfollows]

Other that something apocalyptic like finding out that your chosen candidate is an actual criminal, surely reacting to last-minute events is actually a bad idea. Your vote should, ideally, be based on the history of the candidate and/or party that you lend your support.

I agree, you're right, and postal voting is perfect for me because I make up my mind how to vote well before the election is called, and I don't change my mind. Anecdotally, though, there is a subset of voters which gets swayed by last-minute canvassing; to get any canvassing at all in Wilmslow would be a revelation and it wouldn't affect me as I've already said, but for those whom it does there's a downside to postal voting.

 

[GusB]

Is another by-election in the pipeline? The standards committee has recommended a 35 day suspension for Scott Benton.

Potential by-election as ex-Tory MP Scott Benton faces Commons suspension

Scott Benton committed a "very serious breach" of parliamentary rules, standards watchdog finds.

www.bbc.com

MP Scott Benton faces being suspended from Parliament for 35 days over a "very serious breach" of standards rules.
A standards committee report said the MP had given the message "he was corrupt and 'for sale'".
If MPs approve the suspension it could lead to a by-election in his Blackpool South constituency.
Mr Benton had the Tory whip withdrawn earlier this year and sits as an independent.
In a meeting with newspaper reporters posing as gambling industry investors, he was caught offering to lobby ministers and table parliamentary questions.
As part of his sanction, Mr Benton would also lose his salary for the duration of any suspension.

A suspension of more than 10 days - if passed by the House of Commons - triggers a recall petition.
If 10% of voters in his constituency sign the petition a by-election would be called.
Mr Benton currently has a majority of 3,690, making his seat a top general election target for the Labour Party.

 

[brad465]

Is another by-election in the pipeline? The standards committee has recommended a 35 day suspension for Scott Benton.

Potential by-election as ex-Tory MP Scott Benton faces Commons suspension

Scott Benton committed a "very serious breach" of parliamentary rules, standards watchdog finds.

www.bbc.com

Depends how quickly the whole process goes through, if he sticks it out as long as possible a by-election could end up being called around when a General Election would occur, especially if in May. It's also possible that if it's late enough next year that the by-election being needed is the straw that makes Sunak call the election earlier, to avoid a damaging looking defeat right before the General Election.

 

[Gloster]

Depends how quickly the whole process goes through, if he sticks it out as long as possible a by-election could end up being called around when a General Election would occur, especially if in May. It's also possible that if it's late enough next year that the by-election being needed is the straw that makes Sunak call the election earlier, to avoid a damaging looking defeat right before the General Election.

Or the party might prevail on him to do the ‘decent thing’ and stand down immediately in the interests of the country and his constituents. As he is doing the decent thing, somebody may feel that he is just the right fellow to take up a job that they happen to be able to offer him.

 

[ChrisC]

In 2019 there were two factors. One was Brexit, about which even some Remainers were thinking "For God's sake let's get this sorted out". The other was Jeremy Corbyn, whose programme didn't have the widespread support he assumed.

So you can be "unpopular" but the outcome will depend to what degree, and also whether there is some factor which may upset what may seem the likely result.

In 2024 the likelihood is that the degree of unpopularity the Conservatives have succeeded in acquiring, the perceived lack of competence, the very public divisions and the tiredness (and who wouldn't be tired after Brexit, the changes of leader, and Covid?) will lead to a big defeat, which won't be averted by whatever may have been done in connection with the boats.

I found the 2019 General Election very difficult in the fact that there was no party that I really wanted to vote for. I‘ve always been a fairly moderate centre right Conservative, and was most comfortable with the Ken Clarke, One Nation type of conservatism. In 2019, for the first time ever I didn’t feel that I could vote Conservative because of their Brexit stance especially the Boris version, and I certainly couldn’t vote for Labour led by Jeremy Corbyn. I ended up voting Lib Dem knowing that their support in my constituency has always been so low that it would be a wasted vote, but I’d rather do that than not vote at all.

What to do in 2024, I don’t know. I couldn’t vote Conservative with the views of some of those to the right of the party. I was so pleased to see Suella Braverman go but fear that we haven’t seen the last of her and others like Jacob Rees Mogg. I live in a constituency that will probably be very marginal at the next election and I am seriously thinking of doing the unthinkable for me and voting Labour to get rid of Rishi Sunak and the current incompetent lot. The Conservatives have got so bad and lost the support of more moderate Conservative voters like me and I think a good few years in opposition is what they now need. I feel like this as someone who has always voted Conservative since the first election I ever voted in, when Magaret Thatcher became Prime Minister.

 

[SuspectUsual]

Scott Benton has never done the decent thing once throughout his entire political career, including in local government, so I’m not sure he’ll have some sort of Damascene conversion and start now!

 

[AlterEgo]

Although it is not a national matter, the act that introduced voting ID (The Elections Act 2022) also quietly changed the voting system in the London Mayoral elections from the supplementary vote system to first past the post. The Conservatives claimed that the system chosen by Londoners in a referendum was ‘over-complicated and confusing’, but I don’t think you have to be very cynical to feel that the purpose was to rely on the Left’s habit of splitting into rival camps (Galloway, Corbyn, and grief knows how many others), while the Right coalesces around a single candidate.

That absolutely was not the case in the last Mayoral election which had an entire rainbow of total wingnuts on both sides of the political spectrum!

 

[jfollows]

I found the 2019 General Election very difficult in the fact that there was no party that I really wanted to vote for. I‘ve always been a fairly moderate centre right Conservative, and was most comfortable with the Ken Clarke, One Nation type of conservatism. In 2019, for the first time ever I didn’t feel that I could vote Conservative because of their Brexit stance especially the Boris version, and I certainly couldn’t vote for Labour led by Jeremy Corbyn. I ended up voting Lib Dem knowing that their support in my constituency has always been so low that it would be a wasted vote, but I’d rather do that than not vote at all.

What to do in 2024, I don’t know. I couldn’t vote Conservative with the views of some of those to the right of the party. I was so pleased to see Suella Braverman go but fear that we haven’t seen the last of her and others like Jacob Rees Mogg. I live in a constituency that will probably be very marginal at the next election and I am seriously thinking of doing the unthinkable for me and voting Labour to get rid of Rishi Sunak and the current incompetent lot. The Conservatives have got so bad and lost the support of more moderate Conservative voters like me and I think a good few years in opposition is what they now need. I feel like this as someone who has always voted Conservative since the first election I ever voted in, when Magaret Thatcher became Prime Minister.

I'm with you on a lot of this.
I wasn't quite old enough to vote in the 1979 election, but I voted Conservative in the 1980s and would have done in 1992 as well.
Nobody sensibly voted Conservative in 1997, in my opinion, and this started a long stint of voting Liberal Democrat for me.
In 2019 I voted Labour for the first time, not because I wanted Corbyn but because he (in coalition) would have been better than Boris Johnson. Anyone would have been better than Boris.
I went to university with William Hague and I went to see Michael Heseltine and Enoch Powell speak, amongst others.
In 2024 I'll vote against the Conservatives in any way I can. Probably means Labour for the second time for me.

 

[ainsworth74]

That absolutely was not the case in the last Mayoral election which had an entire rainbow of total wingnuts on both sides of the political spectrum!

That's true but most of the wingnuts got a tiny fraction of the vote. 87.5% of the first round votes went to four candidates from, in order of most votes, Labour, Tory, Green and Lib Dem. Now as it happens on this occasion if it had been FPTP Labour would have won quite comfortably without transfer votes (40% plays 35.3%) but on another occasion it would be quite easy to see a situation where you have the more left leaning voters split into three camps whilst the right wing voters are coalesced around the Tory candidate as the nutjob right wing candidates just don't have the same draw to right wing voters as the Lib Dems and Greens do to left wing voters (in general, no one election is the same as another of course!). This time out I can absolutely see a scenario in which someone like Corbyn runs as an independent and picks up 5/6% of the Labour vote and is enough therefore to give the Tories a chance to come through the middle despite there being a comfortable majority of voters who would prefer a non-Tory candidate.

I do think changing London's electoral system to FPTP is a blatant attempt at subverting the will of the electorate and to make it easier for Tory candidates to win elections.

 

[D6130]

My wife and I - and presumably thousands, if not millions of other people - received a letter through the post this morning from Rishi Sunak, enclosed with which was a three page questionnaire entitled 'Let's build a brighter future together'. The majority of it is asking about people's priorities for future expenditure but, at the end, there is an 'About You' section asking for your email address, mobile number and landline number....then asking how you voted in the 2017 and 2019 general elections; how you intend to vote at the next GE and "Putting party politics aside and thinking about them as people, which of the main party leaders would you prefer as Prime Minister?" Finally, there is a 0-10 grid asking: "Thinking ahead to the next General Election, as things stand today, what are the chances of you voting for each of the following parties?" (Labour, Liberal Democrat, Conservative, Reform UK, Plaid Cymru, Green or other). As the SNP isn't mentioned, I assume that the questionnaire has only been sent to households in England and Wales. On the surface this would seem to be an exercise in public consultation and democracy....but is it really a cynical attempt to gain more information on people, given how much info can be gained nowadays through someone's email address? I'm very much inclined to put it in the recycling bag.

 

[jfollows]

I'm very much inclined to put it in the recycling bag.

Please do!
At least when I provide similar information to Opinium, YouGov and others at least they pay me for it.

 

[Howardh]

My wife and I - and presumably thousands, if not millions of other people - received a letter through the post this morning from Rishi Sunak, enclosed with which was a three page questionnaire entitled 'Let's build a brighter future together'. The majority of it is asking about people's priorities for future expenditure but, at the end, there is an 'About You' section asking for your email address, mobile number and landline number....then asking how you voted in the 2017 and 2019 general elections; how you intend to vote at the next GE and "Putting party politics aside and thinking about them as people, which of the main party leaders would you prefer as Prime Minister?" Finally, there is a 0-10 grid asking: "Thinking ahead to the next General Election, as things stand today, what are the chances of you voting for each of the following parties?" (Labour, Liberal Democrat, Conservative, Reform UK, Plaid Cymru, Green or other). As the SNP isn't mentioned, I assume that the questionnaire has only been sent to households in England and Wales. On the surface this would seem to be an exercise in public consultation and democracy....but is it really a cynical attempt to gain more information on people, given how much info can be gained nowadays through someone's email address? I'm very much inclined to put it in the recycling bag.

I emailed my MP on behalf of my old man, and been pestered with Tory stuff ever since, and he's passed away in 2018. Most ends up in spam and those that don't get placed there.

I know that I might be able to unsubscribe but that means opening....

 

[simonw]

My wife and I - and presumably thousands, if not millions of other people - received a letter through the post this morning from Rishi Sunak, enclosed with which was a three page questionnaire entitled 'Let's build a brighter future together'. The majority of it is asking about people's priorities for future expenditure but, at the end, there is an 'About You' section asking for your email address, mobile number and landline number....then asking how you voted in the 2017 and 2019 general elections; how you intend to vote at the next GE and "Putting party politics aside and thinking about them as people, which of the main party leaders would you prefer as Prime Minister?" Finally, there is a 0-10 grid asking: "Thinking ahead to the next General Election, as things stand today, what are the chances of you voting for each of the following parties?" (Labour, Liberal Democrat, Conservative, Reform UK, Plaid Cymru, Green or other). As the SNP isn't mentioned, I assume that the questionnaire has only been sent to households in England and Wales. On the surface this would seem to be an exercise in public consultation and democracy....but is it really a cynical attempt to gain more information on people, given how much info can be gained nowadays through someone's email address? I'm very much inclined to put it in the recycling bag.

If they have provided a,free post envelope, send it back uncompleted

 

[dgl]

If they have provided a,free post envelope, send it back uncompleted

add a note that one thing you'd like Rishi to do for the next election is help the conservatives to lose and labour to win as that's the only thing he seems good at.

 

[nw1]

My wife and I - and presumably thousands, if not millions of other people - received a letter through the post this morning from Rishi Sunak, enclosed with which was a three page questionnaire entitled 'Let's build a brighter future together'. The majority of it is asking about people's priorities for future expenditure but, at the end, there is an 'About You' section asking for your email address, mobile number and landline number....then asking how you voted in the 2017 and 2019 general elections; how you intend to vote at the next GE and "Putting party politics aside and thinking about them as people, which of the main party leaders would you prefer as Prime Minister?" Finally, there is a 0-10 grid asking: "Thinking ahead to the next General Election, as things stand today, what are the chances of you voting for each of the following parties?" (Labour, Liberal Democrat, Conservative, Reform UK, Plaid Cymru, Green or other). As the SNP isn't mentioned, I assume that the questionnaire has only been sent to households in England and Wales. On the surface this would seem to be an exercise in public consultation and democracy....but is it really a cynical attempt to gain more information on people, given how much info can be gained nowadays through someone's email address? I'm very much inclined to put it in the recycling bag.

Reminds me of when I got election leaflets for both UKIP and the Brexit Party in 2019, personally addressed to myself. Heaven knows why, I've never given any indication of anything other than intense dislike of either, so their profiling clearly wasn't working very well. Suffice to say I ripped them up and placed them straight in the trash where they belonged.

 

[najaB]

My wife and I - and presumably thousands, if not millions of other people - received a letter through the post this morning from Rishi Sunak, enclosed with which was a three page questionnaire entitled 'Let's build a brighter future together'. The majority of it is asking about people's priorities for future expenditure but, at the end, there is an 'About You' section asking for your email address, mobile number and landline number....then asking how you voted in the 2017 and 2019 general elections; how you intend to vote at the next GE and "Putting party politics aside and thinking about them as people, which of the main party leaders would you prefer as Prime Minister?" Finally, there is a 0-10 grid asking: "Thinking ahead to the next General Election, as things stand today, what are the chances of you voting for each of the following parties?" (Labour, Liberal Democrat, Conservative, Reform UK, Plaid Cymru, Green or other). As the SNP isn't mentioned, I assume that the questionnaire has only been sent to households in England and Wales. On the surface this would seem to be an exercise in public consultation and democracy....but is it really a cynical attempt to gain more information on people, given how much info can be gained nowadays through someone's email address?

I very much hope this was paid for by the Conservative and Unionist Party, but I fear that we taxpayers have probably ended up footing the bill.

 

[nw1]

Is another by-election in the pipeline? The standards committee has recommended a 35 day suspension for Scott Benton.

Potential by-election as ex-Tory MP Scott Benton faces Commons suspension

Scott Benton committed a "very serious breach" of parliamentary rules, standards watchdog finds.

www.bbc.com

Brexit supporter, possible death penalty supporter, and possible anti-abortionist.

And according to Wikipedia a Christian, though this shows he doesn't act like one. Another of the "Jesus He Knows Me" brigade (referring to the 1992 Genesis song).

 

[takno]

Reminds me of when I got election leaflets for both UKIP and the Brexit Party in 2019, personally addressed to myself. Heaven knows why, I've never given any indication of anything other than intense dislike of either, so their profiling clearly wasn't working very well. Suffice to say I ripped them up and placed them straight in the trash where they belonged.

All the parties have access to the electoral register for sending out election materials, so you don't need to be on the mailing list

 

[nw1]

If they have provided a,free post envelope, send it back uncompleted

Subvert it by pretending to be a fully paid-up Tory supporter.

 

[The Ham]

I found the 2019 General Election very difficult in the fact that there was no party that I really wanted to vote for. I‘ve always been a fairly moderate centre right Conservative, and was most comfortable with the Ken Clarke, One Nation type of conservatism. In 2019, for the first time ever I didn’t feel that I could vote Conservative because of their Brexit stance especially the Boris version, and I certainly couldn’t vote for Labour led by Jeremy Corbyn. I ended up voting Lib Dem knowing that their support in my constituency has always been so low that it would be a wasted vote, but I’d rather do that than not vote at all.

What to do in 2024, I don’t know. I couldn’t vote Conservative with the views of some of those to the right of the party. I was so pleased to see Suella Braverman go but fear that we haven’t seen the last of her and others like Jacob Rees Mogg. I live in a constituency that will probably be very marginal at the next election and I am seriously thinking of doing the unthinkable for me and voting Labour to get rid of Rishi Sunak and the current incompetent lot. The Conservatives have got so bad and lost the support of more moderate Conservative voters like me and I think a good few years in opposition is what they now need. I feel like this as someone who has always voted Conservative since the first election I ever voted in, when Magaret Thatcher became Prime Minister.

However you end up voting, I agree that voting is what is important. Even if that means voting for someone other than your normal party.

I wouldn't be surprised if there were quite a few people who are in a similar situation and feel politically homeless given the current behaviour and policies of the Tories.

Subvert it by pretending to be a fully paid-up Tory supporter.

There's likely to be some who might suggest multiple options:

- state what you think they want to hear
- send something fairly heavy (so as to increase their postal costs - some morn the loss of telephone directories!)
- go full on hard right with what you say

 

[Purple Train]

And according to Wikipedia a Christian, though this shows he doesn't act like one. Another of the "Jesus He Knows Me" brigade (referring to the 1992 Genesis song).

It's getting quite demoralising as more stories about prominent people (particularly politicians) of such a persuasion (try saying that ten times really fast!) come to light - it makes me half want to wail, "We're not all that bad...!" I suppose I had a similar reaction as to when I read about Miriam Cates admitting that her favoured plans for the Rwanda scheme broke international law. (Something along the lines of, "Read Romans 13 and keep in mind that God is more important than the party line!")

I don't think anybody expected a dissimilar outcome - it seems broadly similar to the Owen Paterson case. I'm not sure whether a by-election would influence Rishi's GE timing, given Benton's seat is a marginal. If he was in a seat like Tamworth, then I could see the logic in adjusting General Election timing - but a defeat in Blackpool South (with a required swing of around five and a half percent) could be brushed off more easily.

I think this is the fourth-longest suspension/recommended suspension in House of Commons history, after Keith Vaz, Boris Johnson, and Rob Roberts. Is there any detail on why it exceeded the 30-day threshold (normally the benchmark for serious offences), especially by only five days? I'm not altogether familiar with the way in which parliamentary suspensions operate so I'm not sure if it means something obvious that I have missed.

 

[The Ham]

It's being reported that the Good Law Project is threatening to sue a certain Mr Sunak for taking a unilateral decision without consulting parliament over the announcement of the canceling of HS2.

In the initial responses the government had said that it was the Transport Secretary who made the decision.

Government threatened with law suit over HS2 cancellation as Sunak blames transport secretary | New Civil Engineer

The Good Law Project has written to the government legal department to inform it that it is considering the pursuit of a judicial review of the decision

www.newcivilengineer.com

Government threatened with law suit over HS2 cancellation as Sunak blames transport secretary

A campaign organisation is on the brink of taking legal action against the government over the cancellation of HS2 Phase 2a, but the prime minister has pointed the finger at the transport secretary for the decision.

The Good Law Project has written to the government legal department to inform it that it is considering the pursuit of a judicial review of the decision to cancel the high-speed line.

According to Good Law Project director Jo Maugham, the organisation has “sent a formal letter before action Rishi Sunak threatening to challenge his unilateral decision to ignore what Parliament has enacted about HS2, cancel the project, and salt the earth by selling all the land”.

Maugham added: “We haven't yet formed a view about whether we will sue - we want to know whether affected Mayors and MPs are serious about their opposition - and although our lawyers reckon it’s a runner we also [want to] know what [Sunak’s] lawyers say - and we don't yet have their full response.”

The campaign has, however, received a preliminary response from the government saying that its decision to include the prime minister as a defendant is “misconceived” because he “was not the decision maker in this matter”. It has requested that Sunak be removed from proceedings and the matter only be addressed to transport secretary Mark Harper.

However, as Maugham and others have pointed out, Sunak took ownership of the decision to cancel HS2 when he announced “I am ending this long running saga and cancelling the rest of the HS2 project” during his keynote speech at the Conservative Party Conference on 4 October. On the same day, the prime minister’s official Twitter account stated: “I am cancelling the rest of the HS2 project.”


The Good Law Project has responded to the government to say that it “is not able to agree to that request until it has seen the proposed defendants’ pre-action protocol response and their explanation […] of how the challenged decisions were taken, who was responsible, and precisely what the prime minister’s role was”.

A “substantive” response from the government was expected by the Good Law Project yesterday, 13 December. This was not received and the DfT has asked for more time.

The Department for Transport (DfT) has been contacted for comment.

The decision to cancel HS2 north of Birmingham was made official during the Conservative Party Conference on 4 October. This came despite widespread outcry in the weeks beforehand from affected stakeholders, the National Infrastructure Commission Chief, former HS2 chairpeople and former Conservative cabinet members.

It was revealed shortly after that the government intends to sell off the land that it had purchased for HS2 Phase 2 meaning the route will no longer be safeguarded. This would essentially stop any future governments from reinstating the HS2 project north of Birmingham - with experts accusing Sunak of taking a “scorched earth” approach to the project's conclusion.


An investigation by NCE found that the expenditure on land for HS2 Phase 2 was £564M up to September. Rail experts warned that selling the land would be short sighted and wasteful as it was purchased at an elevated rate that would be difficult to recoup.

The transport secretary later promised that the land would be sold in a “carefully thought through” way.

The government replaced the HS2 plan with its Network North document, outlining how £36bn reportedly saved by cancelling the northern legs of the project would be used on other transport interventions. The document was amended numerous times shortly after publication to remove some schemes.

The Network North document re-affirmed the DfT’s commitment to improving rail connections between Manchester and Liverpool and reintroduced plans for a new station at Bradford. The government has since afforded £400,000 to start the masterplanning for Bradford station.

Mayors of the West Midlands and Manchester have this month convened a private sector group to investigate ways to improve rail connections between their two regions in the wake of HS2’s cancellation

 

[Howardh]

Couple of polls out today, been a few this week, has the vote on the Boats/Rwanda made any difference? Not a jot. Where does Sunak go now? he's finished appealing to the hard right so what next? leave the ECHR and see if that gets a boost? Or admit defeat that he's gone way too far right and start to soften up by dumping the Rwanda scheme, and making friendly noises towards the EU?

https://twitter.com/techneUK/status/1735576138531868715

Lab: 44% (-1) Con: 22% (=) Lib Dem: 12% (=) Reform: 9% (+1) Green: 7% (=) SNP: 3% (=) Others: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1735651248664162316

LAB: 42% (+1) CON: 28% (-1) LDM: 11% (-1) RFM: 8% (=) GRN: 6% (=) SNP: 4% (+1)

 

[nw1]

Couple of polls out today, been a few this week, has the vote on the Boats/Rwanda made any difference? Not a jot. Where does Sunak go now? he's finished appealing to the hard right so what next? leave the ECHR and see if that gets a boost? Or admit defeat that he's gone way too far right and start to soften up by dumping the Rwanda scheme, and making friendly noises towards the EU?

https://twitter.com/techneUK/status/1735576138531868715

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1735651248664162316

The correct answer of course is, hold the election ASAP, i.e. spring. There's nothing they can really do to recover now: if they turn into a cuddly pro-asylum seeker, friendly-with-EU party they won't be taken seriously as people will see such things as non-genuine.

If on the other hand they become even more anti-migrant and anti-EU that will lose still more of the centrist vote.

So the correct thing to do is hold the election in spring, regroup and move on. The sooner they do this the sooner they will recover and the greater their chance of getting back to power in 2029 (not that I want that to happen, but from their point of view it would make sense).

 

[Busaholic]

Did you mean May 2016?

Yes, bad typing!

 

[Jozhua]

We could be heading towards a small economic recession, thought necessary by some as a cost of controlling inflation, but nonetheless it could end up that we're in a "technical" recession following two consecutive quarters of negative growth (4Q23 followed by 1Q24) and this could happen at a "bad" time for the Conservatives to call an election in spring 2024.
It's a numbers game, but the Conservatives have been crowing recently about how "they" have prevented the economy going into recession whilst everyone knows the pain of food and energy bills, so it'd only be just if they suffered because we actually ended up in a technical recession even though nobody would actually feel any worse off.
It'd be something for their opponents to throw at them for sure, if they were all campaigning for an election.

I'm going to be biased by my own experiences, while I don't think this is going to be anything record breaking, I certainly think eyebrows will raise when they see the UK economy move into recession over winter 23 and spring 24.

All I see around me is redundancies, recruiters I talk to say that few places are hiring. That's two industries I see day to day, sure there are others that are different, but not a good sign.

All of this to try and keep salaries down, to prevent a "wage price spiral", when the things primarily driving higher costs are essentials people need to buy anyway - food, energy, fuel, housing. Many of which are global trends, compounded with (in my opinion), poor short termist decision making in the UK.

Waiting to see the Bank Of England scramble to lower interest rates soon enough...