Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[Tracked]

Would the British public buy any attempts to claim election fraud?

Possibly depends on how much The Mail/Express say it ...

 

[nw1]

Surely the Cons will try to hold on to power as long as possible so will call for the latest possible election.

Except that will likely cause more anger and resentment against them for holding on so long.

Plus, who wants an election in midwinter and a campaigning period over Christmas?

I still maintain October is the absolute latest feasible date. And April the earliest (if things go very wrong very soon), so that gives a 7-month window. Then we have to remove July and Aug (peak summer) and Sep (needs campaigning over mid-summer), and you're left with April, May, June and Oct.

I'd say now, likelihood is:

1= May, Oct
2 June
3 April

 

[edwin_m]

Would the British public buy any attempts to claim election fraud? For some reason in America, postal voting seems to be massively frowned upon - but here is isn't, and I've voted by post for as long as I've been able to. I can't think of any other way I'd want to vote.

A lot of the arguments for election fraud come from postal votes, as it sounds - in theory - easy to manipulate and fake if you don't know how it actually works. It would be far harder to claim fraud in polling stations (although I suspect that this is possibly more likely to be where any fraud - on a tiny scale - would actually occur).

But, it wouldn't surprise me if it isn't mentioned - and when the likes of Reform UK get slaughtered because elections always reveal there's no silent majority, they'll either have to admit they have little support or make such ridiculous claims. So, possibly not the Tories but certainly some groups.

Election fraud was the stated reason for the Tories bringing in the rules on presenting ID to vote at a polling station, despite the fact that any such fraud would be easy to detect (people would turn up and find they had already been marked as attending) so its extent is provably tiny.

Rees-Mogg let slip that the intention was gerrymandering - factually incorrect, as that refers to skewing the results by adjusting boundaries, but it shows the sort of thinking. He also mused that it probably affected elderly more-likely-Tory voters more than the younger and poorer people they were aiming to exclude.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Surely the Cons will try to hold on to power as long as possible so will call for the latest possible election.

That would be my suspicion too.

Wonder if they're considering a "stolen election" strategy as well?

I think you can be very certain they are not. To be honest I think you're being melodramatic there. That strategy was is peculiar to Trump's narcism and his takeover of the US Republicans. And it was arguably not that surprising given that Trump already had a history of trying to discredit elections he thought he'd lose. Whatever many faults there might be with the UK Tories - including their support for the appalling first past the post electoral system - there is basically zero indication that they don't respect election results.

 

[edwin_m]

I think you can be very certain they are not. To be honest I think you're being melodramatic there. That strategy was is peculiar to Trump's narcism and his takeover of the US Republicans. And it was arguably not that surprising given that Trump already had a history of trying to discredit elections he thought he'd lose. Whatever many faults there might be with the UK Tories - including their support for the appalling first past the post electoral system - there is basically zero indication that they don't respect election results.

Another big difference is that many of the people responsible for running elections in the US are political appointees, whereas in this country they are appointed on merit and appear to have a strong commitment to neutrality.

 

[The Ham]

Possibly depends on how much The Mail/Express say it ...

Whilst that would attract some interest from some, as I understand it those who vote using postal votes are quite probably the people who would read those newspapers.

 

[Gloster]

Although it is not a national matter, the act that introduced voting ID (The Elections Act 2022) also quietly changed the voting system in the London Mayoral elections from the supplementary vote system to first past the post. The Conservatives claimed that the system chosen by Londoners in a referendum was ‘over-complicated and confusing’, but I don’t think you have to be very cynical to feel that the purpose was to rely on the Left’s habit of splitting into rival camps (Galloway, Corbyn, and grief knows how many others), while the Right coalesces around a single candidate. Just how big an artificial swing this will create, together with the number of people without ID, is difficult to calculate, but if the Conservatives steal a victory, that’s democracy, old boy.

Perhaps this should start a new thread.

 

[brad465]

Although it is not a national matter, the act that introduced voting ID (The Elections Act 2022) also quietly changed the voting system in the London Mayoral elections from the supplementary vote system to first past the post. The Conservatives claimed that the system chosen by Londoners in a referendum was ‘over-complicated and confusing’, but I don’t think you have to be very cynical to feel that the purpose was to rely on the Left’s habit of splitting into rival camps (Galloway, Corbyn, and grief knows how many others), while the Right coalesces around a single candidate. Just how big an artificial swing this will create, together with the number of people without ID, is difficult to calculate, but if the Conservatives steal a victory, that’s democracy, old boy.

Perhaps this should start a new thread.

Galloway was more of help to Labour in the end than the Tories in Batley & Spen: the local independent in that seat in 2019 didn't stand again and their votes were initially expected to go to the Tories, but in the end it looks like Galloway took most of them and the Tories actually saw a small drop in vote share. For this reason he may well do similar in London, he'd take votes from those disapproving of Khan but are not prepared to vote for Susan Hall, but this could be offset by tactical voting seeing previous Lib Dem/Green voters voting Labour.

 

[nw1]

That would be my suspicion too.

Even if that means a midwinter election (with little daylight and the attendant risk of disruptive rain, wind, snow etc) with a Christmas campaigning period? As I said above, a very late election will hinder rather than help the Tories, particularly if it's held at an unsuitable time of year. I do think there's a fair chance still of October though: I'd say May and Oct on 40% chance each, June on 10%, April on 5% and any other month on 5%.

I guess it depends whether the government is destabilised further. If they are I'd guess at a spring or early summer election, if not perhaps autumn.

I'd say overall a spring election would be better for the Tories. It's light in May, the days are getting longer, summer is coming, fuel bills are (relatively) low and people are feeling (relatively) optimistic. Such things would probably help the incumbents slightly. Not enough to win, but enough to lose less badly.

 

[Typhoon]

Even if that means a midwinter election (with little daylight and the attendant risk of disruptive rain, wind, snow etc) with a Christmas campaigning period? As I said above, a very late election will hinder rather than help the Tories, particularly if it's held at an unsuitable time of year. I do think there's a fair chance still of October though: I'd say May and Oct on 40% chance each, June on 10%, April on 5% and any other month on 5%.

I guess it depends whether the government is destabilised further. If they are I'd guess at a spring or early summer election, if not perhaps autumn.

I'd say overall a spring election would be better for the Tories. It's light in May, the days are getting longer, summer is coming, fuel bills are (relatively) low and people are feeling (relatively) optimistic. Such things would probably help the incumbents slightly. Not enough to win, but enough to lose less badly.

If October, before the clocks change. Even then it can be fairly dark - get in from work, lukewarm about the candidates, it is getting dark = stay at home.

 

[nw1]

If October, before the clocks change. Even then it can be fairly dark - get in from work, lukewarm about the candidates, it is getting dark = stay at home.

True, even before the clocks change it's getting dark shortly after 6, as you say. The very start of Oct is lighter but that's also conference season, unless they just cancel them next year.

I suspect the anti-Tory tactical vote will be the most motivated this time and will probably come out to vote whatever the weather. The Tories are the party most likely to lose votes due to apathy this time I suspect, which again favours an election in the lighter half of the year for them.

 

[The Ham]

If October, before the clocks change. Even then it can be fairly dark - get in from work, lukewarm about the candidates, it is getting dark = stay at home.

An interesting thought popped into my head, an October (or later) general election would likely see many older people opt for postal voting (saves having to go out to vote), which could lead to some (if they were to try to replicate Trump) to say that this surge in postal votes was what won it for Labour.

However, chances are Labour would be happy to bring in reforms to postal votes (given, at least historically, Tory voters are more likely to be older and therefore more likely to use a postal vote).

It could easily turn out to be a repeat of voter ID, where actually it would harm the Tories - even though on the face of it a play from Trump's playbook "should" be good for them.

 

[edwin_m]

An interesting thought popped into my head, an October (or later) general election would likely see many older people opt for postal voting (saves having to go out to vote), which could lead to some (if they were to try to replicate Trump) to say that this surge in postal votes was what won it for Labour.

However, chances are Labour would be happy to bring in reforms to postal votes (given, at least historically, Tory voters are more likely to be older and therefore more likely to use a postal vote).

It could easily turn out to be a repeat of voter ID, where actually it would harm the Tories - even though on the face of it a play from Trump's playbook "should" be good for them.

In the US it tends to be poorer people who can't vote in person due to work, or no transport to the polling station, which itself may have very limited opening hours or be badly located (possibly intentionally). These people are more likely to vote Democrat, hence when the 2020 postal votes were counted, some Republican majorities from the initial count became Democrat wins. I think also postal votes arriving after polling day are counted, as long as they are postmarked on or before that day, so there may be a considerable time lag in getting all the votes in.

In the UK, as you suggest, the polling stations are more accessible although voter ID is now required, so any similar effect would lead to a Tory surge. And I believe votes have to arrive by polling day to be counted, so any surge would be smaller and shorter-lived. In any case I don't think we have running commentaries on how the count is going, although people can guess based on the size of the piles on the tables.

 

[Typhoon]

An interesting thought popped into my head, an October (or later) general election would likely see many older people opt for postal voting (saves having to go out to vote), which could lead to some (if they were to try to replicate Trump) to say that this surge in postal votes was what won it for Labour.

However, chances are Labour would be happy to bring in reforms to postal votes (given, at least historically, Tory voters are more likely to be older and therefore more likely to use a postal vote).

It could easily turn out to be a repeat of voter ID, where actually it would harm the Tories - even though on the face of it a play from Trump's playbook "should" be good for them.

While I don't disagree, those that don't already have postal votes may not make the effort to get one once the election is called. It wouldn't surprise me if there is a significant increase in apathy amongst the older voters. There must a good chance that many older voters notice food price rises more than the average voter (not those on the breadline), particularly if they pay cash. I'm not saying they are necessarily starving, just that it is more obvious. There is not a fat lot of difference when paying by card between £34.65 and £43.65, but it is another note if you pay by cash.

 

[317 forever]

If October, before the clocks change. Even then it can be fairly dark - get in from work, lukewarm about the candidates, it is getting dark = stay at home.

A few months ago I heard the Thursday before the clocks go back suggested, so October 24th.

That would create a moral dilemma for me. Do I spend Saturday 26th wrapped up in newspaper General Election coverage? Or do I have a bus trip being one of my favourite Saturdays out being the final day of British Summer Time? Especially as October 26th is for personal reasons my favourite day of the year to do Warrington, by which time the electric buses may well be in service?

 

[brad465]

This week is crunch time for Sunak: he appears before the covid inquiry tomorrow and then on Tuesday faces a critical vote on the Rwanda bill, which if defeated will leave him and his party in serious trouble.

 

[Gloster]

This week is crunch time for Sunak: he appears before the covid inquiry tomorrow and then on Tuesday faces a critical vote on the Rwanda bill, which if defeated will leave him and his party in serious trouble.

You mean that they are not already in serious trouble?

 

[brad465]

You mean that they are not already in serious trouble?

Fair point, perhaps even more trouble than they're already in (and considering they've constantly proven it's possible to sink lower, yes that's not unrealistic).

 

[Jozhua]

ERG (Eurosceptic Tory faction) seem to be publicly speaking out against Sunak.

Will be interesting to see how this week goes. Usually they pipe down once the reality of their electoral prospects once again becomes clear, but we'll see!

It seems like the Rwanda policy, far from being the ultimate Labour own, has caused the Tories far more internal strife.

 

[SuspectUsual]

Sunak has confirmed that like Johnson he no longer has access to any WhatsApp messages sent during the pandemic.

How handy

What are the odds!

 

[Acfb]

Sunak has confirmed that like Johnson he no longer has access to any WhatsApp messages sent during the pandemic.

How handy

What are the odds!

Just like Sturgeon then.

 

[jmh59]

Sunak has confirmed that like Johnson he no longer has access to any WhatsApp messages sent during the pandemic.

How handy

What are the odds!

Good grief, and these twerps run/ran the country? Lame excuse, which shall from this day forward be known as the 'Johnson-Sunak defence' when one is asked to present evidence from one's own device... sorry officer I have no access to those messages, I claim the Johnson-Sunak defence.

 

[Gloster]

The dog ate my WhatsApp.

 

[D6130]

Very strange....I can still easily access my WhatsApp messages from that period!

 

[jmh59]

Very strange....I can still easily access my WhatsApp messages from that period!

Likewise, and on a phone I changed a few months ago, right back to 5th Feb 2020 when I created a family group chat. What a pity the ex-buffoon and Sunak didn't simply copy us into their chats - I mean, anyone, someone off the street would have been able to send the missing texts to the enquiry. I guess they asked GCHQ or the NSA or FSB for a copy...

 

[SuspectUsual]

It’s pathetic, and a shame the inquiry hasn’t got someone from WhatsApp to explain what exactly can happen to lose messages without the wilful intervention of the phones user. And I don’t understand why the inquiry hadn’t asked Johnson and sunak to compile lists of anyone they could’ve messaged during that time, so that they can be asked to supply the messages. They could start with the cabinet, everyone working in the treasury and number 10, all the SPADs, all Tory MPs etc and go from there

 

[Richard Scott]

Sunak has confirmed that like Johnson he no longer has access to any WhatsApp messages sent during the pandemic.

How handy

What are the odds!

Perhaps the content doesn't follow the media rhetoric over this and they were forced to follow the media rather than do what they felt was right?
However it doesn't matter who's in government as media run the country now?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Likewise, and on a phone I changed a few months ago, right back to 5th Feb 2020 when I created a family group chat. What a pity the ex-buffoon and Sunak didn't simply copy us into their chats - I mean, anyone, someone off the street would have been able to send the missing texts to the enquiry. I guess they asked GCHQ or the NSA or FSB for a copy...

I've long had a problem with WhatsApp auto-deleting old messages and I could never trace why. In one case it went beyond annoyance into inconvenience because it meant I could no longer read some old messages that had details of building work that had been done on my house, which I needed to look up. I wonder if maybe WhatsApp does that if the phone is short of storage, as my old phone was often running out of storage, and I haven't noticed WhatsApp doing that since I swapped to a new phone last year.

Then separately from that, you have friends/colleagues who switch on the disappearing messages feature, which means all your messages with them disappear on your phone as well as theirs, and you have no means to prevent it - although I'm not sure if that particular feature was around in 2020.

Having said that, I seem to be in a minority with WhatsApp deleting messages - I've not noticed anyone else complaining about it, hence I am also rather suspicious of Sunak and Johnson's excuse.

 

[SuspectUsual]

Perhaps the content doesn't follow the media rhetoric over this and they were forced to follow the media rather than do what they felt was right?
However it doesn't matter who's in government as media run the country now?

Are you accusing Johnson of "doing what was right"?!?

 

[najaB]

Are you accusing Johnson of "doing what was right"?!?

Doing what was right for Johnson, maybe.