Passenger numbers after the holiday period

[Cricketer8for9]

The high peak London commuter trains I regularly use are very definitely NOT full. If anyone can turn them into diesel services for those places which are busy in the week and turn them back to EMUs for the increasingly busy Saturdays in the south east then I’m sure the laws of physics and engineering will welcome your ability to move the sum of human knowledge forward.

 

[Horizon22]

Is 'reform of rail fares' a euphemism here for making them cheaper? Reforming rail fares on a neutral basis could easily backfire if they got it wrong.

I note that the flexi-season was a step towards fare reform that some people suggest is one of the reasons people haven't returned to their office in large numbers, but suspect the reality is that people just have to take whatever the offer is.

It was more that the government have evidently found the money to subsidise bus fares and extend it, whilst not looking at rail fares really at all besides the flexi-season which isn’t beneficial for most people.

 

[30907]

It was more that the government have evidently found the money to subsidise bus fares and extend it,

As bus fares are not AFAIK subsidised by Central Government (except via ENCTS), and local authorities are not exactly flush with cash, the alternative (given the still-suppressed demand) would have been massive cuts to services.
Even with the flat fare scheme, the routes local to me in Saltaire are still operating at 2/3 of pre-Covid levels..

 

[Krokodil]

The high peak London commuter trains I regularly use are very definitely NOT full. If anyone can turn them into diesel services for those places which are busy in the week and turn them back to EMUs for the increasingly busy Saturdays in the south east then I’m sure the laws of physics and engineering will welcome your ability to move the sum of human knowledge forward.

You can't have them back on Saturdays, that's the busiest day of the week around here.

 

[nw1]

My other half works from home. She can drink on work nights and can even lie in thanks to flexible working hours.

Personally I'd hate to work from home but I can see it's a big draw for some who in many cases are still getting pay rises without the costs of travelling to work.

I think a lot of it depends on your commute.

If you have a long tiring commute then WFH is more attractive (and this is perhaps the railway's problem, though by all accounts the effect on peak travel is exaggerated, given the constant reports on here of crowded peak trains - perhaps for political purposes, to give an excuse for railway funding cuts).

If you have a short commute then the benefits of the office (getting out of the house/change of scene, social interaction with colleagues) begin to trump the disadvantages.

I wonder also if it depends on season? WFH is, IMO, better in the spring and summer, when it's light for many hours after 5pm and when you can get out of the house and go for a walk (assuming you live somewhere reasonably pleasant). On the other hand in Nov-Jan in particular where it's dark before 5pm and gloomy and dismal even during the short hours of daylight before that, it feels to me quite claustrophobic being stuck in the house. So in the winter months I actually tend to go into the office more, even if I don't have to. (FWIW my mode of commute is a short bus journey, and sometimes walking in spring and summer).

The area in which you live is another factor. If you live somewhere pleasant again WFH has its benefits. If you don't, and you can't go out for a local walk easily (for example) then again the benefits of the office begin to trump the disadvantages.

 

[yorksrob]

The high peak London commuter trains I regularly use are very definitely NOT full. If anyone can turn them into diesel services for those places which are busy in the week and turn them back to EMUs for the increasingly busy Saturdays in the south east then I’m sure the laws of physics and engineering will welcome your ability to move the sum of human knowledge forward.

Is 'reform of rail fares' a euphemism here for making them cheaper? Reforming rail fares on a neutral basis could easily backfire if they got it wrong.

I note that the flexi-season was a step towards fare reform that some people suggest is one of the reasons people haven't returned to their office in large numbers, but suspect the reality is that people just have to take whatever the offer is.

It certainly should be. It's about time our shambolic and overpriced fares system was brought closer into line with sensible countries.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Aug 2023 ==

The high peak London commuter trains I regularly use are very definitely NOT full. If anyone can turn them into diesel services for those places which are busy in the week and turn them back to EMUs for the increasingly busy Saturdays in the south east then I’m sure the laws of physics and engineering will welcome your ability to move the sum of human knowledge forward.

The more likely outcome at present is that the units enabling more intense peak/weekend services to meet demand will be scrapped regardless.

 

[Cricketer8for9]

You can't have them back on Saturdays, that's the busiest day of the week around here.

Indeed. That’s the problem. Elizabeth line into London from Slough decently busy on BH Monday at 4pm: Thameslink southwards also busy; local train to Purley Oaks pretty empty.

 

[Horizon22]

As bus fares are not AFAIK subsidised by Central Government (except via ENCTS), and local authorities are not exactly flush with cash, the alternative (given the still-suppressed demand) would have been massive cuts to services.
Even with the flat fare scheme, the routes local to me in Saltaire are still operating at 2/3 of pre-Covid levels..

But they’ve been fine with cuts to rail services. It’s just an observation that one mode of public transport has been seen worthy of extra subsidy whilst another hasn’t, even if obviously the economics are different.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Aug 2023 ==

My other half works from home. She can drink on work nights and can even lie in thanks to flexible working hours.

Personally I'd hate to work from home but I can see it's a big draw for some who in many cases are still getting pay rises without the costs of travelling to work.

I wouldn’t mind it now and again (and have on occasion) but I wouldn’t want to constantly either. I think there’s definitely an element of personality as to whether you do or not.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Aug 2023 ==

If you have a long tiring commute then WFH is more attractive (and this is perhaps the railway's problem, though by all accounts the effect on peak travel is exaggerated, given the constant reports on here of crowded peak trains - perhaps for political purposes, to give an excuse for railway funding cuts).

If you have a short commute then the benefits of the office (getting out of the house/change of scene, social interaction with colleagues) begin to trump the disadvantages.

Also if you have a short commute you are likely commuting from a suburb or the urban part of the city, whereas a longer commute is probably from a smaller town or a drive to the local station. People with shorter commutes would generally have smaller homes (particularly in London) and have a more cramped WFH set up which might not be so desirable than a nice open plan, air conditioned office with the potential to meet colleagues (truer for younger staff).

 

[higthomas]

It was more that the government have evidently found the money to subsidise bus fares and extend it, whilst not looking at rail fares really at all besides the flexi-season which isn’t beneficial for most people.

IIRC I once heard it would cost about £3billion a year to make all buses in the UK (or perhaps England) free all the time. Given that, I suspect their current £2 max fare (which I suspect only cover perhaps 20% of non-ENTCS bus given journeys) is a relative drop in the ocean compared to what the treasury fear rail reform might cost.

 

[WoodHillsian]

I was shocked travelling on the 0723 Cardiff to London back on Friday 11 August - about 90 seats in my carriage, 4 occupied - a couple more people got on at Bristol Parkway, then 2 more at Swindon. But coming back on an off-peak on that evening it was standing room only. Looks like a lot of people are doing the shprt week, and not travelling for work on Fridays.

 

[nw1]

Is 'reform of rail fares' a euphemism here for making them cheaper? Reforming rail fares on a neutral basis could easily backfire if they got it wrong.

In today's world if any politician promises "reform of rail fares", you can absolutely bet they mean making them more expensive.

Certainly in my experience "reform" or "revise" is usually a euphemism for making something worse (usually more expensive and/or more difficult) for the customer/employee (delete as applicable).

 

[HSTEd]

I think your example at Stockport is spot on. The imbalance of what services are actually being used and those that are not is now completely skewed to where we where 10 years ago. In my view, it further undermines the need for HS2.

The railways being in a weaker financial position strengthens the position of HS2 because it will allow major reductions in operating costs on the money pit that is the WCML

 

[The Planner]

The railways being in a weaker financial position strengthens the position of HS2 because it will allow major reductions in operating costs on the money pit that is the WCML

Why is the WCML a money pit?

 

[dk1]

I was shocked travelling on the 0723 Cardiff to London back on Friday 11 August - about 90 seats in my carriage, 4 occupied - a couple more people got on at Bristol Parkway, then 2 more at Swindon. But coming back on an off-peak on that evening it was standing room only. Looks like a lot of people are doing the shprt week, and not travelling for work on Fridays.

That’s quite normal for a Friday morning & often was before the pandemic.

 

[YorksLad12]

As bus fares are not AFAIK subsidised by Central Government (except via ENCTS), and local authorities are not exactly flush with cash, the alternative (given the still-suppressed demand) would have been massive cuts to services.
Even with the flat fare scheme, the routes local to me in Saltaire are still operating at 2/3 of pre-Covid levels..

Unless it changed post-Covid, Local Transport Authorities were responsible for reimbursing ENCTS (rather like social care - a policy the government can claim it came up with, but which is funded locally). WYCA, for example, used to negotiate multi-year deals. LTAs could extend the validity period outside of the core 0930-2300 s they saw fit and were able to afford - it West Yorkshire it's until the last bus, South Yorkshire used to be from 0900, trams can be included if you have them.

 

[Krokodil]

In today's world if any politician promises "reform of rail fares", you can absolutely bet they mean making them more expensive.

Or more complicated. Or both.

Certainly in my experience "reform" or "revise" is usually a euphemism for making something worse (usually more expensive and/or more difficult) for the customer/employee (delete as applicable).

See also: "modernisation".

 

[Starmill]

But new flexiseason tickets are being purchased by hybrid workers and they generate more revenue per journey than traditional season tickets.

These aren't really that relevant anyway because the volume of Flexi Seasons sold is tiny, only a little over a tenth of all season sales.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

These aren't really that relevant anyway because the volume of Flexi Seasons sold is tiny, only a little over a tenth of all season sales.

Flexi season tickets don't work for me, as I'm sure for a lot of people, I know I'm rare by working in different offices so I'm once a week London and once a week Milton Keynes but I sure hybrid workers are also struggling as you buy 8 trips a month but have a day off and you're losing.. full season tickets were different as you were daily so always gaining even with annual leave

 

[Starmill]

Flexi season tickets don't work for me, as I'm sure for a lot of people, I know I'm rare by working in different offices so I'm once a week London and once a week Milton Keynes but I sure hybrid workers are also struggling as you buy 8 trips a month but have a day off and you're losing.. full season tickets were different as you were daily so always gaining even with annual leave

The problem is 28 days is far too short. If you don't use your days up within 28 days you lose their value, and can't claim credit or money back in respect of them. This more than wipes out the slim (roughly) 10% saving on offer.

Stagecoach's bus flexi tickets come, in general, in bundles of 5 or 10 and you have 365 days to use them. At minimum for an 8 day bundle they should allow 64 days. If you buy the bundle of 10 you get a 30% discount on Stagecoach too, which is sensible. If you only buy 5, you get a 20% discount.

 

[778]

When are the passenger numbers for 2022/23 going to be released?

 

[PGAT]

When are the passenger numbers for 2022/23 going to be released?

November 2023

 

[dk1]

When are the passenger numbers for 2022/23 going to be released?

Always towards the end of the year.

 

[Krokodil]

The problem is 28 days is far too short. If you don't use your days up within 28 days you lose their value, and can't claim credit or money back in respect of them. This more than wipes out the slim (roughly) 10% saving on offer.

Stagecoach's bus flexi tickets come, in general, in bundles of 5 or 10 and you have 365 days to use them. At minimum for an 8 day bundle they should allow 64 days. If you buy the bundle of 10 you get a 30% discount on Stagecoach too, which is sensible. If you only buy 5, you get a 20% discount.

TfW have a Multiflex carnet that offers 12 singles for the price of 5 returns. You've got 3 months to use them up in which means that you only need to make one return journey a fortnight. It also means that night shift workers who go out today and come back tomorrow don't lose out, as they would if using a flexi season, ditto anyone who only gets the train in one direction (say they return by bus or get a lift).

 

[Starmill]

TfW have a Multiflex carnet that offers 12 singles for the price of 5 returns. You've got 3 months to use them up in which means that you only need to make one return journey a fortnight. It also means that night shift workers who go out today and come back tomorrow don't lose out, as they would if using a flexi season, ditto anyone who only gets the train in one direction (say they return by bus or get a lift).

Indeed - the TfW product is much more flexible on time and terms. The ScotRail one is also a very slightly better discount percentage at 15% rather than around 10%. Both are better than their counterpart in England. I think they're both quite long-standing too.

 

[Krokodil]

The TfW one was introduced under ATW, then it was 6 returns rather than 12 singles

 

[Snow1964]

The DfT has updated the usage spreadsheet since start of pandemic, rail data is column G compared to 2019

12-24 Aug between 96-99%
25 Aug (Fri before bank hol) 102%
26 Aug 97%
27 Aug 97%
28 Aug (Bank hol) 101%
29 Aug 100%
30 Aug 94%
31 Aug 96%
1 -3 Sept all 89% (strike weekend)

So looks like holiday usage is back to normal, too early for figures for Sept

Daily domestic transport use by mode

Daily usage of selected domestic transport by mode for Great Britain.

www.gov.uk

 

[30907]

The DfT has updated the usage spreadsheet since start of pandemic, rail data is column G compared to 2019

Thanks.
So in August, when commuters are disproportionately on holiday and business travel was (consequently) always low, things are pretty much back to normal (by numbers, perhaps not by revenue).
That confirms what we already knew or at least surmised.

 

[jon0844]

It seems that more and more businesses are getting people back in to the office 3 or 4 days a week, perhaps even every day with days at home now being something you'd ask for occasionally and not the norm, so I wonder if monthly and annual season ticket sales are rising again as people are at the level where they're the best value again?

 

[dk1]

It seems that more and more businesses are getting people back in to the office 3 or 4 days a week, perhaps even every day with days at home now being something you'd ask for occasionally and not the norm, so I wonder if monthly and annual season ticket sales are rising again as people are at the level where they're the best value again?

Good to hear.

 

[Taplowgreen]

It seems that more and more businesses are getting people back in to the office 3 or 4 days a week, perhaps even every day with days at home now being something you'd ask for occasionally and not the norm, so I wonder if monthly and annual season ticket sales are rising again as people are at the level where they're the best value again?

I'd be interested in your evidence that this is the pattern for businesses?