There aren't going to need to be anything like 54 HS2 trains, at least not in the timeframe you are describing. That at least creates some scope for Hitachi to want to fill its order books with other orders.
Who, apart from the quoted poster, is saying that there isn't capacity in the UK to produce new trains?
I don't see how the government can force a private company to get trains built in a certain country. GC is open access, not a DfT TOC.
For 10-13 units, nobody is going to build a UK factory.
So if the UK is unable to produce the required trains in the required timeframe - the only place to look is abroad.
I was not saying that the UK would not be able to produce here, but other than CAF and Siemens for quite a few years you are going to be having the factories in Newton Aycliffe, Derby and Crewe busy with producing parts and making HS2 trains. Since the Hitachi and Alstom production lines are behind schedule with making trains in their production lines, that will be impacting the building of HS2 trains and any trains there onwards I would suspect.
@357 The exception might be Stadler, although those trains would need to be built in Europe. If it is to a manufacturer with a UK base, then you have Siemens building the new underground trains, which just leaves CAF. But I would think that even CAF, would not build 10 - 13 trains, unless there is follow on orders which is where as I stated before comes the orders from both Cross Country, Chiltern Railway and if the rumours are true, LNER as well.
@RobShipway I think it would be really useful if you could share your credentials when it comes to rolling stock procurement. Just so we can balance it against
@Clarence Yard's actual experience.
I am just someone that has worked in IT for the last 30 years or more and has a keen interest in transport in general and where manufacturing in the UK is heading.
The problem you end up having is that the people of the UK, expect a lot of things that are made here in the UK, whether it is cars from Nissan in Sunderland, engines from the various diesel and petrol engine plants around the country. The problem you also have is how the country is being run by the UK Government. The issue you have is that in the last few years, it is has been for the most part more costly to be building things in this country since we came out of the EU, than it was before. This is why manufacturers such as Honda, closed down their plant in Swindon. However, the shutdown did not just impact the workers working at the factory, it impacted the businesses that relied on the setup of that factory. The same is true of the factories for CAF, Siemens, Alstom and Hitachi.
Now, at the point in time the original class 800 trains where being assembled, Hitachi was on a separate line building the class AT200 class 385 trains. I am presuming possibly wrongly, that Hitachi at Newton Aycliffe has one production line doing class 805/807 units and the other production line building the class 810 units? If it was me, I would be asking what is the timescale of completion for these units? Now, I know that the production of the 80 units of class 800 went from 2014 to 2018, which is four years. Now you have 13 5 car class 805 units that where started to be constructed back in 2021. How many of those 13 class 805 have been built in that 2 years?
Now the class 807 began in 2020, again how many of the 10 units have been built?
Construction also began in 2021 of the 33 5 car class 810 units. Unlike the class 805/807 units the class 810 units will be fully built here in the UK, whereas as the 805/807 are being built as far as I know in the Kasado works in Japan, as well as Newton Aycliffe.
Now for arguments sake let's say the building of the class 807 finishes next year and the class 805 in 2025. That is then the point that Hiatchi I believe are due to begin work on building works for the HS2 trains. At the same point in time in 2025, the building work for the class 810 trains should be complete. If it was me, I would be asking are both production lines at Newton Aycliffe going to be used for building work for HS2 trains? If not then where is the capacity that Hitachi says that they have coming from, because it is presume either Kasado or Pistoria?
Sorry, but you are clearly talking from an armchair using no actual relevant experience.
@Clarence Yard is talking from experience of actually discussing orders with Hitachi themselves.
Yes, I am. But I am also trying to make sure that UK engineers have continued employment and that less and less orders for trains are built outside the UK for the UK. Because, without those orders there is not follow on business that goes to other UK businesses whether in IT, food etc........... If that is not followed through, then we are then faced potentially with the same scenario that happened through the 1980s - 1990's.
