Russia invades Ukraine

[DustyBin]

It appears that the Twitter rumours were true, and Prigozhin’s and other senior Wagner figures families were threatened. Surely they’d considered this possibility absolute certainly?

I suspect Prigozhin was banking on the military (or a significant part of it) joining him, which obviously didn’t happen. This raises a further question; was it a straightforward miscalculation on his part, or was he stitched up?

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

It appears that the Twitter rumours were true, and Prigozhin’s and other senior Wagner figures families were threatened. Surely they’d considered this possibility absolute certainly?

I suspect Prigozhin was banking on the military (or a significant part of it) joining him, which obviously didn’t happen. This raises a further question; was it a straightforward miscalculation on his part, or was he stitched up?

Is there a link for this? Must admit I haven’t seen anything talking about the families etc.

 

[Typhoon]

Is there a link for this? Must admit I haven’t seen anything talking about the families etc.

When that first came up I found:

The leader of the Wagner military group called off his attack on Moscow after intelligence officials threatened the families of revolting troops, UK security insiders have claimed.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the group's leader, called off the attack within hours of reaching Moscow on the weekend, with intelligence sources telling the Daily Telegraph that threats were made to the group's leaders.

The source added that the group was also far less equipped than initially suggested, with Prigozhin descending on the Russian capital with just 8,500 fighters, three times less than the 25,000 the warlord previously touted.

Reports suggest that Vladimir Putin now plans to absorb some of those soldiers into the Russian military.

In doing so, the intelligence source added that the premier would "take out its former leaders" while the fate of its chief remains unclear.

Source: https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1784485/Wagner-boss-Moscow-Russia-coup-attempt

Whether you would regard that as authoritative would be up to you but is the best I could find and it may be you won't be able to find better when dealing with Russia.

 

[DustyBin]

Is there a link for this? Must admit I haven’t seen anything talking about the families etc.

Paywalled Telegraph article. This was the part which made me think it may well be genuine:

Russian intelligence services threatened to harm the families of Wagner leaders before Yevgeny Prigozhin called off his advance on Moscow, according to UK security sources.

*Edited as the article has been reproduced at least in part on Yahoo News:

Russian intelligence services threatened to harm the families of Wagner leaders before Yevgeny Prigozhin called off his advance on Moscow, according to UK security sources.

It has also been assessed that the mercenary force had only 8,000 fighters rather than the 25,000 claimed and faced likely defeat in any attempt to take the Russian capital.

Vladimir Putin will now try to assimilate Wagner Group soldiers into the Russian military and take out its former leaders, according to insights shared with The Telegraph.

The analysis offers clues into the mystery of why Prigozhin, the Wagner Group leader, called off his mutinous march on Moscow on Saturday just hours before reaching the capital.

There remains speculation about what formal deal was struck, if any. The Kremlin said on Saturday that Prigozhin would head to Belarus in exchange for a pardon from charges of treason.

There has been no comment from Prigozhin over the suggestion. It also remains unclear if Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, is set to be demoted or fired, as Prigozhin demanded.

On Sunday, the Russian MP Andrey Gurulyov, a prominent Kremlin propagandist, said there was “no option” but for Prigozhin and another high-profile Wagner figure to be executed.

Putin has not been seen in public since addressing the nation on Saturday morning, but a pre-recorded interview filmed earlier in the week was played on state television on Sunday.

In the interview, Putin expressed confidence in realising plans for what he continues to call the “special military operation” in Ukraine.

Reports emerged that the United States was aware of a possible Wagner mutiny days before it happened, with The Washington Post quoting an official saying they knew “something was up”.

Figures in Washington, DC were said to have become concerned that Putin could lose control of his nuclear arsenal if a full coup was mounted against the Kremlin.

Russia’s ministry of defence said Ukraine used the chaos unleashed by Prigozhin’s coup attempt to step up its attacks around Bakhmut in Donbas. On Sunday, Ukraine’s military said that it had taken ground.

“Any chaos behind the enemy lines works in our interests,” said Ukrainian foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba.

The British ministry of defence also said that Ukraine had increased its attacks over the past few days and had refined their tactics against “well prepared” Russian defences.

“Ukrainian units are making gradual but steady tactical progress in key areas,” it said in its morning intelligence briefing.

Ukraine launched its much-vaunted counteroffensive against Russia’s frontline around three weeks ago but had made slow progress.

Analysts have said that the distraction of Prigozhin’s coup attempt may have weakened Russia’s frontline.

The Kremlin didn’t withdraw any units to defend Moscow against Wagner fighters but Prigozhin called for regular army soldiers to desert.

‘So this raises profound questions’​

On Sunday, Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, said that the armed uprising in Russia exposed “real cracks” in Putin’s authority after he was forced into an amnesty deal.

Mr Blinken told CBS News that the development marked “a direct challenge to Putin’s authority. So this raises profound questions, it shows real cracks”.

The impact of the Wagner mutiny on the battlefield in Ukraine remains to be seen. Ukraine said fresh gains in its counter-offensive had been made over the weekend.

The Kremlin has said that Wagner soldiers who did not take part in the coup will be taken into the Russian defence forces while claiming that those who did not will no longer be prosecuted.

Meanwhile, members of Russia’s convict army have issued threats against Prigozhin, claiming he betrayed them by abandoning the Kremlin coup attempt.

A video posted online by the prisoners-turned-fighters accused Prigozhin of “cowardice”, saying his supporters had been “double crossed” and now faced retribution.

One of the Storm-Z soldiers could be heard saying that Prigozhin had “promised everything” to them and then “turned the steering wheel in the other direction”.

Russian agents’ threat to family made Prigozhin call off Moscow advance

Russian intelligence services threatened to harm the families of Wagner leaders before Yevgeny Prigozhin called off his advance on Moscow, according to UK security sources.

uk.yahoo.com

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

Thank you both.

 

[Sm5]

Is there a link for this? Must admit I haven’t seen anything talking about the families etc.

this was obvious from the outset.
Prigozhin has an 18year old daughter, who runs a luxury hotel in St petersberg, and has the best suite as her residence.

They would have woken her up first thing in the morning, I wouldnt be surprised if Putin sent Prigozhin a selfie with her, after his flight arrived there from Moscow, “just saying high”.

This is Russia.


Now after the theatre comes strategy…

Wagner in Belarus, publically detached from Moscow, free to go renegade and without come back to Putin….
what could they do… Kiev, or perhaps go right upto nato’s border with Poland and down to Korcowa, Prszemsyl and cut off the supply route, safe in the knowlegde this isnt the Russian army. Putin would happily arm them in support using the same reason NATO supports Ukraine… he’s helping a private army defend itself, its also a suicide mission, when Putin turns off the taps, so solves a future political problem too.

 

[edwin_m]

what could they do… Kiev, or perhaps go right upto nato’s border with Poland and down to Korcowa, Prszemsyl and cut off the supply route, safe in the knowlegde this isnt the Russian army. Putin would happily arm them in support using the same reason NATO supports Ukraine… he’s helping a private army defend itself, its also a suicide mission, when Putin turns off the taps, so solves a future political problem too.

By the same token, if this isn't the Russian army, NATO could hit them more directly.

 

[Sm5]

By the same token, if this isn't the Russian army, NATO could hit them more directly.

True enough, but hitting them from where ?
inside or outside Ukraine ?

This could be messy, if thats what is tempted to play out. ive no doubts Prigozhin doesnt care what he hits or where. If he’s not the Russian army, Putin can disconnect himself (not that the Americans will see it that way). However Putin will respond saying Wagner are no less a participant than NATO.

If Prigozhin lobs a few into Poland, Poland will respond against Prigozhin, but to remove him will require going into Ukraine.
If NATO goes into Ukraine its hard to say they arent party to the conflict, especially if Wagner then retreat to Belarus and claim they are defending themselves and lob a few from there… then what.. go into Belarus ?

Similarly if he can advance half height of Russia in a day, and operates in Africa he could execute from western Belarus. He’s also safely a long way from Minsk (well at least in traditional dictator thinking before last saturday).

I doubt he’ll go for Kiev, unless he’s running for Russian President, as any attempt on that kind of prize would surely be reserved for Putin/Shoigu…I cant see Putin supporting him on that… but grubby suicidal stuff in the west Putin would probably save Prigozhin from a window in the short term.

Prigozhin needs to go for something extreme, if he is to survive. He would have known before Saturdays theatre what he was risking, personally, politically and economically.. hes not that daft, he is a mercenary, he‘s known Putin and he’s russian afterall. Oldest trick in the book is to make a deal with a dictator and expect him to keep it.

His mistake was turning back. Even though events got bigger than he envisaged, and maybe he didnt get support he-expected, What it shows is the fear in Moscow and if he had pressed ahead, I suspect the support may have followed in his wake. I doubt he had a plan that great, hence the panic retreat. I do suspect he could have made it to the centre of Moscow.. even if he didnt know what to do next… thats the difference between a soldier and a politician…objectives and vision. if he had a political leader behind him, Putin would have been gone.

imo Kadyrov is one to watch, a bit of a tiktok warrior, but Russians dont like them, even if he's sucking up to Putin. They seem to have an easy ride in this war, riding on the reputation of the 1990’s. If anything happened to Putin I can imagine old wounds opening very quickly. If Rostov kicked off, almost certainly Russians would be supporting Wagner against Chechens, putting Putin on the wrong side.

Maybe best hope is Wagner becomes fat and lazy in Belarus. Retires on the same basis as the Budapest rifles who also exiled themselves from Russia in Transnistria in the 1990’s. Indeed Putin seeing him off may do the west a favour.

 

[edwin_m]

True enough, but hitting them from where ?
inside or outside Ukraine ?

You suggested above that they'd come down the Polish border, in which case NATO would be able to hit them from Polish territory/airspace if they chose to, or if they perceived a threat to that territory.

 

[brad465]

Apparently Putin will address the nation in Russia tonight, with a simultaneous one in Belarus from Lukashenko.

 

[Annetts key]

I can’t see Prigozhin or Wagner taking on NATO. Prigozhin and the rest of the leadership of Wagner are in this for the money. They don’t want to die.

 

[Sm5]

I can’t see Prigozhin or Wagner taking on NATO. Prigozhin and the rest of the leadership of Wagner are in this for the money. They don’t want to die.

I’m not saying they will.
i’m saying they will run down the border and cut off supplies from Poland.
its Russias weakest link, and most likely highly at-trite and difficult to achieve.
Thats a big payday.

However that does not rule out some missiles going over the border.
They dont have to be as careful as the Russian army in taking on Ukraine.

I suspect the reason why Russia has been so far removed from the obvious target of cutting off western supplies is because just as much as we dont want a direct face off with Russia, they dont want with us. They also know the limits and accuracy of their long range stuff.

Wagner is one step removed… Think like a Russian… they would try this kind of stuff, it gets them closer, deniably.
8k troops would take 20-30k off the Ukrainian front line, but it would severely test the tolerance of Poland in advent of border clashes. Wagner is expendable, they have little to lose and so less need to care.

To take a border, there will be a clash, unless Ukrainians surrender, which is highly unlikely, indeed it will be a survival battle, so it will be extremely ugly…

if Wagner or Ukrainian missiles start over flying the border, how long does Poland ignore it for, once, twice, thrice, several times ?
What if Ukrainian solders take refuge in Poland and Wagner goes after them ? Turning Eastern Poland into similar raids like Belgorod ?
As an aside, in the hours since I posted that, Putin himself just said anyone from Wagner can goto Belarus, and Wagner can continue its activities… so much for suppressing a stab in the back.

Putin says he will keep Belarus promise​

Putin thanks commanders and soldiers of Wagner who avoided bloodshed.
He says he promises to those from Wagner who want to go to Belarus that he will keep his promise.

lets not forget until last year Wagner was a virtual unknown, but existed in the shadows, its effectively going back to that model.


take this quote from February 2018…

Why would Russia need mercenaries?​

The mercenaries can be deployed in especially tough ground fighting alongside Syrian government troops. And as the Russian government does not officially recognise the mercenaries' existence it can deny or play down any Russian casualties.
Their role has been compared to that of US military contractors in Iraq, who were deployed on a large scale.
The US suffered heavy casualties in Vietnam, and later the Afghanistan war was very costly for Russia. Those wounds - and the associated public anger - encouraged both countries to privatise war in recent years.
Military sources quoted by RBC said that when Russia helped Assad forces to recapture Palmyra it was the Wagner men who went in first. "First Wagner's guys go to work, then the Russian ground units come in, and then the Arabs and the cameras," an unnamed ex-Wagner officer said.

Syria war: Who are Russia's shadowy Wagner mercenaries?

Russian Wagner group fighters have died in Syria - others have fought in Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

you dont get that by going to Kiev, but you do in Bakhmut.
Similarly would Putin / Shoigu really hand Prigozhin the prize of taking kiev ?

So where else would Wagner go from Belarus if not Ukraine's western border ?

Are mercenary fighters really just going to become farmers in Belarus ?

 

[DustyBin]

I’m not saying they will.
i’m saying they will run down the border and cut off supplies from Poland.
its Russias weakest link, and most likely highly at-trite and difficult to achieve.
Thats a big payday.

However that does not rule out some missiles going over the border.
They dont have to be as careful as the Russian army in taking on Ukraine.

I suspect the reason why Russia has been so far removed from the obvious target of cutting off western supplies is because just as much as we dont want a direct face off with Russia, they dont want with us. They also know the limits and accuracy of their long range stuff.

Wagner is one step removed… Think like a Russian… they would try this kind of stuff, it gets them closer, deniably.
8k troops would take 20-30k off the Ukrainian front line, but it would severely test the tolerance of Poland in advent of border clashes. Wagner is expendable, they have little to lose and so less need to care.

To take a border, there will be a clash, unless Ukrainians surrender, which is highly unlikely, indeed it will be a survival battle, so it will be extremely ugly…

if Wagner or Ukrainian missiles start over flying the border, how long does Poland ignore it for, once, twice, thrice, several times ?
What if Ukrainian solders take refuge in Poland and Wagner goes after them ? Turning Eastern Poland into similar raids like Belgorod ?
As an aside, in the hours since I posted that, Putin himself just said anyone from Wagner can goto Belarus, and Wagner can continue its activities… so much for suppressing a stab in the back.




lets not forget until last year Wagner was a virtual unknown, but existed in the shadows, its effectively going back to that model.


take this quote from February 2018…

Syria war: Who are Russia's shadowy Wagner mercenaries?

Russian Wagner group fighters have died in Syria - others have fought in Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

you dont get that by going to Kiev, but you do in Bakhmut.
Similarly would Putin / Shoigu really hand Prigozhin the prize of taking kiev ?

So where else would Wagner go from Belarus if not Ukraine's western border ?

Are mercenary fighters really just going to become farmers in Belarus ?

If the article I linked to early is a accurate, and it’s a big if, Prigozhin only took 8,000 fighters with him on his “march for justice”. How many are going to follow him to Belarus?

Ukraine’s northern border is heavily defended and in many places difficult to pass (remember how the initial Russian assault faltered) so I can’t see Wagner causing any major problems to be honest. Swapping one suicide mission for another seems a little odd does it not?

The usual caveat applies, i.e. you never know with this lot, but I think “gone to Belarus” could well become a euphemism…

 

[Purple Train]

We have to do precisely nothing with our nuclear weapons for the simple reason it achieves nothing of benefit. Russia is utterly reliant on their nuclear weapons to instill fear because they don't have any other way of doing so. Even before Ukraine if they'd really ever come West we'd have beaten them with conventional forces. Now it wouldn't even been a fight.

Rattling our nuclear saber just makes us look silly and belligerent.

The correct response is to reinforce NATOs conventional forces (we'd win but let's not leave room for any doubt that we'd win), rebuild the industrial capacity to make munitions and then send as many munitions and weapons to Ukraine as possible. Of all types.

You do not need to reach for the nuclear stick to achieve our objectives and indeed they're counter productive.

Precisely.

The West threatening anything will only play into Putin's warped narrative. There is no need to lower ourselves to Putin's level.
The idea that we should involve themselves any more than we are doing is exactly the kind of thinking that led to the Iraq war. Reinforcing Ukraine's efforts is a perfectly sensible course of action that gives Putin's unhinged rants about the West about as much traction as Percy hauling the Express over Gordon's Hill in autumn.

There's no need to rise to Putin's "strong-man" image-bait; those who make a show of displaying their strength, power, masculinity, etc., nearly always have less of it - for example, Andrew Tate - and Putin is no different. He's a shameless, desperate excuse of a man, wracked with cowardice and selfish, ruthless greed. He's as much a paragon of manliness as I am made of thallium-coated walnuts.

Why should we even entertain the possibility of giving him what he wants - a confrontation? He's the playground bully, but he has his gang and his weapon and he's not afraid to boast about them. Producing our gang and our weapon loses us several feet in moral high ground.

Obviously Ukraine need to be able to defend themselves, I'm not suggesting that they shouldn't be defending themselves as they are. But the West wading in further sends us down a very slippery slope.

As a very wise man once said, "War does not determine who is right, but rather who is left."

Slava Ukraini.

 

[52290]

I can’t see Prigozhin or Wagner taking on NATO. Prigozhin and the rest of the leadership of Wagner are in this for the money. They don’t want to die.

Why is it called Wagner? I would have thought Tchaikovsky, Prokofiev, Shostakovich or even Stravinsky would have been more appealing to Russians.

 

[birchesgreen]

Why is it called Wagner? I would have thought Tchaikovsky, Prokofiev, Shostakovich or even Stravinsky would have been more appealing to Russians.

The guy who founded the group (not this Prigozhin bloke) possibly used Wagner as his call-sign, he is said to have been a neo-nazi which is pretty ironic considering the stated Russia rationale for their "special military operation".

 

[Broucek]

Why is it called Wagner? I would have thought Tchaikovsky, Prokofiev, Shostakovich or even Stravinsky would have been more appealing to Russians.

Wagner was a considerably more ruthless character than any of the other composers you mention....

(Stravinsky as runner up but with more wit!)

 

[brad465]

Right then, let's see what all those countries Wagner have operated in think now:

Wagner mutiny: Group fully funded by Russia, says Putin

The president says more than $1bn was given to the mercenary group in the past year.

www.bbc.co.uk

Russia's president has said members of the Wagner mercenary group were fully funded by the state.
According to Vladimir Putin, Wagner was given 86.262bn roubles ($1bn) from May 2022 to May 2023 alone for salaries and bonuses, which came from the defence ministry and state budget.
The private army's revolt on Saturday rocked Russia.
Its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, arrived in Belarus on Tuesday after agreeing to leave Russia.
His arrival was confirmed by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko. Earlier, a private jet linked to Prigozhin was tracked landing in Minsk, the Belarusian capital.
On Saturday, mercenary troops led by Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin took over the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, marched on Moscow and shot down Russian military helicopters and a plane on their way.
Their mutiny was later aborted after a deal was struck with the help of Mr Lukashenko.
The Russian authorities said Wagner will be disarmed but its members will escape prosecution over its short-lived rebellion.
"We always treated fighters and commanders from this group with great respect, because they really showed bravery and heroism," said Mr Putin.
He said authorities would look into how the money paid to Wagner and its leader was spent.
Preparations are under way for the group to hand over its heavy weapons and equipment to the Russian army, the defence ministry said.
Criminal charges have also been dropped against those who took part in the mutiny, according to the FSB security service.

 

[nw1]

Why is it called Wagner? I would have thought Tchaikovsky, Prokofiev, Shostakovich or even Stravinsky would have been more appealing to Russians.

Wasn't Wagner a bit of an unpleasant individual, unlike say Tchaikovsky? Wasn't he into some of this Aryan master race rubbish? In which case, the name is perhaps entirely appropriate.

 

[Cowley]

Wasn't Wagner a bit of an unpleasant individual, unlike say Tchaikovsky? Wasn't he into some of this Aryan master race rubbish? In which case, the name is perhaps entirely appropriate.

That’s always been my take on it. Wasn’t Wagner Hitlers favourite composer?

 

[GusB]

That’s always been my take on it. Wasn’t Wagner Hitlers favourite composer?

Tchaikovsky may have been more appropriate - it's about time that both Putin and Prigozhin experienced the Nutcracker

 

[Ivor]

And so it goes on, breaking news shopping mall & restaurant hit by missiles in Kramatorsk, many casualties.

Sorry useless with links, on SKY NEWS

 

[Broucek]

That’s always been my take on it. Wasn’t Wagner Hitlers favourite composer?

Well, that wasn't his fault (Hitler also liked the blameless Bruckner) but he was a ruthless antisemite...

 

[35B]

Wasn't Wagner a bit of an unpleasant individual, unlike say Tchaikovsky? Wasn't he into some of this Aryan master race rubbish? In which case, the name is perhaps entirely appropriate.

He was a complete ****, and his music is still effectively barred in Israel despite some of his greatest interpreters being Jewish (today, notably Daniel Barenboim). He also wrote some of the greatest music of all time.

But assuming that this anti-Semitic grade A swine would either have supported the Third Reich or Prigozhin is a major stretch.

 

[Giugiaro]

True enough, but hitting them from where ?
inside or outside Ukraine ?

Any of them standing outside of Belarus, Russia or Ukraine will be quickly turned into coloured rain if they dare step on NATO soil.

The French Parliament already designated the Wagner group as a terrorist group through a non-binding resolution.

 

[edwin_m]

Reported - not sure how seriously - that Prigozhin is staying in a hotel with no windows.

Wagner leader Prigozhin 'staying in windowless room to avoid assassination' after attempted rebellion

'There have been a number of Russian entity individuals who have run afoul of Putin over the last year and a half who have mysterious fallen out of windows'

uk.yahoo.com

Speaking to MSNBC, the US Senate intelligence committee chair Mark Warner said a move by Prigozhin to mitigate a potential assassination attempt showed where his relationship with the Russian president stood.

"I understand, literally as I was coming on air, he says he's in Minsk and actually is – get this – there are reports he is in one of the only hotels in Minsk that doesn't have any windows," Warner said.

 

[d9009alycidon]

Reported - not sure how seriously - that Prigozhin is staying in a hotel with no windows.

Wagner leader Prigozhin 'staying in windowless room to avoid assassination' after attempted rebellion

'There have been a number of Russian entity individuals who have run afoul of Putin over the last year and a half who have mysterious fallen out of windows'

uk.yahoo.com

Bloody Hell, is Bill Gates after him too!!!!

 

[Cowley]

Well, that wasn't his fault (Hitler also liked the blameless Bruckner) but he was a ruthless antisemite...

Reported - not sure how seriously - that Prigozhin is staying in a hotel with no windows.

Wagner leader Prigozhin 'staying in windowless room to avoid assassination' after attempted rebellion

'There have been a number of Russian entity individuals who have run afoul of Putin over the last year and a half who have mysterious fallen out of windows'

uk.yahoo.com

If this is true then I find it quite amusing that he feels the only way they’ll get him is via some kind of window/long drop/pavement interface. Rather than just walking through the door and shooting him.

Knock Knock. “Room service!”

 

[birchesgreen]

Knock Knock. “Room service!”

"Cup of tea sir."

 

[43096]

"Cup of tea sir."

“Have you ever wanted to visit Salisbury?”