Russia invades Ukraine

[357]

I just can't see how either side would win from doing something to the ZNPP. But, at the same time, we all said the same about the dam as both sides were saying the other was plotting to destroy that, and it happened....

It's all quite worrying on the context of this war, but honestly this is probably a step too far. Anyway, nuclear power plants are designed to survive bombs. The only way this is going up is if there is mechanical sabotage alongside it, and that would point firmly to the Russians. So again I can't see them doing it.

Scorched Earth policy - military policy in which all the houses, crops, factories, etc., in an area are destroyed so that an enemy cannot use them.

 

[Annetts key]

All but one of the reactors are in cold shutdown. You can’t easily get a nuclear explosion from a reactor in this condition. This is the same condition used to carry out maintenance including changing fuel rods.

Apparently, one, just one reactor may be in warm shutdown. In this condition, it’s not capable of generating electricity, but can generate low pressure steam. The steam being needed for the safe operation of certain other parts of the plant, and for heating in winter. I’m led to believe that due to it being severely “throttled back”, again, it’s not easy to get a nuclear explosion from it.

Why is it hard to get a nuclear explosion? Because that requires a large runaway uncontrolled chain reaction. Exactly what a good design of a civil nuclear power plant is designed to prevent…

If someone was to use conventional explosives in a nuclear facility, yes, that will release radiation and radioactive dust. But although this will cause difficulties, it’s most definitely not going to significantly help the Russian military. And indeed, may actually backfire on them.

But unfortunately, it appears that there are too many idiots in the chain of command in Russia

 

[gingerheid]

I just can't see how either side would win from doing something to the ZNPP. But, at the same time, we all said the same about the dam as both sides were saying the other was plotting to destroy that, and it happened....

Russia didn't invite logic or common sense to the party.

 

[DustyBin]

All but one of the reactors are in cold shutdown. You can’t easily get a nuclear explosion from a reactor in this condition. This is the same condition used to carry out maintenance including changing fuel rods.

Apparently, one, just one reactor may be in warm shutdown. In this condition, it’s not capable of generating electricity, but can generate low pressure steam. The steam being needed for the safe operation of certain other parts of the plant, and for heating in winter. I’m led to believe that due to it being severely “throttled back”, again, it’s not easy to get a nuclear explosion from it.

Why is it hard to get a nuclear explosion? Because that requires a large runaway uncontrolled chain reaction. Exactly what a good design of a civil nuclear power plant is designed to prevent…

If someone was to use conventional explosives in a nuclear facility, yes, that will release radiation and radioactive dust. But although this will cause difficulties, it’s most definitely not going to significantly help the Russian military. And indeed, may actually backfire on them.

But unfortunately, it appears that there are too many idiots in the chain of command in Russia

To be fair I don’t think many people (on this thread at least) fear an actual nuclear explosion, for the reasons you’ve highlighted. The release of radioactive material is the main concern.

 

[Giugiaro]

I'm more concerned that the ZNPP may be blown up using conventional bombs over a nuclear runaway reaction.

The fuss created by the event would send shockwaves across the globe, and the plant would be rendered useless, but it wouldn't make a catastrophe like that of Chernobyl.

I would be more concerned with the growing opposition to nuclear power that would arise from such events in places like France, Spain and the UK, eventually leading to the shut-down of their nuclear programs, as Chernobyl did to Germany's.

 

[brad465]

Sounds like he needs to watch his tea and proximity to windows 24/7:

Wagner boss Prigozhin is in Russia, Belarus ruler Lukashenko says

Alexander Lukashenko says Prigozhin, who led a short-lived mutiny in Russia, is in St Petersburg.

www.bbc.co.uk

The head of the Wagner mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin - who led a short-lived armed rebellion in Russia last month - is in Russia, longtime Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko says.
Prigozhin's whereabouts have been a mystery since he was seen in southern Russia during the mutiny.
Under a deal to end the stand-off, charges against Prigozhin were dropped and he was to be allowed to move to Belarus.
Mr Lukashenko helped broker the deal.
Just over a week ago Mr Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus since 1994 and is widely thought to have rigged 2020 elections to maintain power, said Prigozhin had arrived in Belarus.
The Wagner leader's private jet had been tracked flying into Minsk on 27 June - although it was not clear if Mr Prigozhin was on board.
But, on Thursday Mr Lukashenko told reporters: "As for Prigozhin, he's in St Petersburg. He is not on the territory of Belarus."
The Wagner Group is a private army of mercenaries that has been fighting alongside the regular Russian army in Ukraine.

Prigozhin's mutiny saw Wagner mercenaries cross the border into Russia from field camps in Ukraine and into the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, seizing command of some security facilities.
Wagner fighters then travelled towards Moscow, prompting the Kremlin to introduce tighter security in many regions, including the capital.
Vladimir Putin accused the group of treason, but under the deal that brought an end to the mutiny, Prigozhin was been promised security and the Russian criminal case against Wagner was dropped.
Its fighters were told they can either sign regular army contracts, go home or head to Belarus.

• What next for Russia's Wagner group?

In his previous statements to journalists, Mr Lukashenko said Wagner mercenaries had been offered an abandoned military base if they wanted to join their leader
Recent satellite images have shown what looks like tents being erected at a former military base close to Minsk, but there has been no sign yet that this has happened
On Thursday Mr Lukashenko said an offer for Wagner to station some of its fighters in Belarus - a prospect that has alarmed neighbouring Nato countries - still stands.
He said he did not see it as a risk to Belarus and did not believe Wagner fighters would ever take up arms against his country.

 

[DustyBin]

Sounds like he needs to watch his tea and proximity to windows 24/7:

Wagner boss Prigozhin is in Russia, Belarus ruler Lukashenko says

Alexander Lukashenko says Prigozhin, who led a short-lived mutiny in Russia, is in St Petersburg.

www.bbc.co.uk

I was just about to post the same!

There’s clearly more going on here, what however is anyones guess. I wouldn’t trust Lukashenko as far as I could throw him (i.e.not far at all!) but I can’t see any reason for him to lie about this.

 

[Trackman]

oh! another welding accident. We had a 'welding accident' in that shopping centre that went up in flames.

Ukraine war latest: Deadly blast at Russian explosives factory; why Putin regime 'may well collapse', according to one expert

At least six are reported to have died in the factory blast; a Ukrainian MP explains how the Wagner mutiny has "shattered" the myth of Vladimir Putin as a strongman; and the US is expected to approve sending cluster munitions, which are banned in 120 countries, to Ukraine today.

news.sky.com

Six dead after blast at Russian explosives factory - report​

Six people have died after a blast in an explosives factory in Samara, Russia, state media is reporting.
TASS said the blast occurred "during welding work on pipes that could contain explosive residues".
The factory is one of the main manufacturers of industrial explosives in Russia and the former Soviet Union.
Interfax reported that two others were injured in the blast.

 

[brad465]

US sending Ukraine cluster bombs/munitions:

US plans to send controversial cluster munitions to Ukraine

The White House defends the move, while acknowledging that such unexploded ordnance can harm civilians.

www.bbc.co.uk

The US will send Ukraine a cluster munitions package to help in its counteroffensive against Russia.
The White House said it had postponed the decision for as long as it could because of the risk of civilian harm from such unexploded ordnance.
Ukraine has been asking for the weapons for months amid an ammunition shortage.
Cluster munitions - which are banned by more than 100 countries - are a class of weapon that contain multiple explosive bomblets called submunitions.
US President Joe Biden said in a cable TV interview that it was "a very difficult decision on my part" to send the bombs.
"I discussed this with our allies," he told CNN, "I discussed this with our friends up on the [Capitol] Hill."
He said he had decided to send the munitions because "the Ukrainians are running out of ammunition".
Mr Biden could face questions from allies about the matter at a Nato summit in Lithuania next week.

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told Friday's daily White House briefing: "We recognise the cluster munitions create a risk of civilian harm from unexploded ordnance.
"This is why we've deferred the decision for as long as we could."
He added: "Ukraine would not be using these munitions in some foreign land. This is their country they're defending."
Mr Sullivan said Ukraine was running out of artillery and needed "a bridge of supplies" while the US ramps up domestic production.
"We will not leave Ukraine defenceless at any point in this conflict period," he said.

 

[Gloster]

US sending Ukraine cluster bombs/munitions:

Not a good thing, both in the context of this conflict and in general. Cluster bombs are, even by the standards of weapons, an obscenity and should be banned. Sending them smacks of an attitude of‘ ‘We are the good guys and it is OK for us to use them, but nobody else should’. It is an open invitation for Putin to say, ‘If you are using cluster bombs, then it is fine for us to do so as well or to use some other nasty’. And in other conflicts various insalubrious groups will also use it as an excuse.

 

[Ivor]

It is an open invitation for Putin to say, ‘If you are using cluster bombs, then it is fine for us to do so as well or to use some other nasty’. And in other conflicts various insalubrious groups will also use it as an excuse.

News last night (can’t remember if I had BBC or ITV on) said Putin had been using cluster bombs from the first day of the invasion.

 

[357]

Not a good thing, both in the context of this conflict and in general. Cluster bombs are, even by the standards of weapons, an obscenity and should be banned. Sending them smacks of an attitude of‘ ‘We are the good guys and it is OK for us to use them, but nobody else should’. It is an open invitation for Putin to say, ‘If you are using cluster bombs, then it is fine for us to do so as well or to use some other nasty’. And in other conflicts various insalubrious groups will also use it as an excuse.

russia has been using them on civilians for a year and a half.....

 

[Gloster]

News last night (can’t remember if I had BBC or ITV on) said Putin had been using cluster bombs from the first day of the invasion.

russia has been using them on civilians for a year and a half.....

But now he has an extra excuse.

 

[ainsworth74]

But now he has an extra excuse.

Russia has been profligate in their usage of cluster munitions, incendiary munitions, white phosphorous and similar nasty weapons. To suggest that he needs "an excuse" is for the birds.

Of course the usage of all these weapons could be brought to an end by Russia leaving Ukraine. But until then if Ukraine wants cluster munitions then Ukraine should be given them. Especially if it allows Ukraine to bring the war to a successful conclusion sooner.

 

[357]

But now he has an extra excuse.

Like he is waiting for an excuse to do anything.

Friends of mine have been captured and tortured, others killed. And people here are still trying to reason with the leader of a terrorist state....

It's not 2014 anymore. We can't just update the "let him keep Crimea to avoid war" logic.

 

[Gloster]

Maybe I should clarify a bit. I am quite aware that he doesn’t need and won’t really bother with an excuse as far as the West is concerned, but for internal consumption and for those countries who are still not entirely hostile to him he now has a little bit of genuine evidence to leaven all the lies and distortions. How long before Putin is depicting the use of the cluster bombs by Russian forces in Ukraine as a reaction to their use by Ukraine’s forces and displaying bits of bomb with ‘Made in the USA’ markings.

There is also the wider context. Other dubious countries will now ask why, if it OK for the USA to give cluster bombs to Ukraine, they can’t use them in ‘military’ campaigns that they, in their twisted logic, claim are just as justified as supporting Ukraine.

 

[Annetts key]

There is a big difference between cluster munitions and incendiary munitions or white phosphorous. The reason why cluster munitions should not be used relates to the injuries and deaths they do after the conflict has finished.

123 countries including Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom have signed the Convention on Cluster Munitions international treaty.

You will note that some of these countries are very good supporters of Ukraine, and have already supplied vast amounts of military equipment to Ukraine. Do you really think you know better than all of these countries?

And cluster munitions are not as effective as more modern weapons. Hence, I don’t think they will be a game changer. Certainly, they don’t appear to be helping Russia at the moment.

Even the USA has legislation relating to their use.

Ukraine having long range precision missiles including Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG, GLSDB and other similar weapons, so that they can obliterate the Russian logistics, weapons stockpiles, command and control and other important targets are far more likely to be effective in helping win the war. But they do need far more long range missiles.

In addition to the long range missiles, what Ukraine really needs is relatively modern western fighter/ground attack aircraft, primarily so that they can use western air to ground munitions. Preferably precision weapons. Plus obviously to provide air defence against Russian aircraft over the battlefields.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Jul 2023 ==

Maybe I should clarify a bit. I am quite aware that he doesn’t need and won’t really bother with an excuse as far as the West is concerned, but for internal consumption and for those countries who are still not entirely hostile to him he now has a little bit of genuine evidence to leaven all the lies and distortions. How long before Putin is depicting the use of the cluster bombs by Russian forces in Ukraine as a reaction to their use by Ukraine’s forces and displaying bits of bomb with ‘Made in the USA’ markings.

There is also the wider context. Other dubious countries will now ask why, if it OK for the USA to give cluster bombs to Ukraine, they can’t use them in ‘military’ campaigns that they, in their twisted logic, claim are just as justified as supporting Ukraine.

I agree.

 

[43096]

It's not 2014 anymore. We can't just update the "let him keep Crimea to avoid war" logic.

That was tried in 1938 when Germany annexed part of Czechoslovakia. The appeasement policy didn't work then and it hasn't worked now. There's an obvious historical lesson that has been ignored.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Not a good thing, both in the context of this conflict and in general. Cluster bombs are, even by the standards of weapons, an obscenity and should be banned. Sending them smacks of an attitude of‘ ‘We are the good guys and it is OK for us to use them, but nobody else should’. It is an open invitation for Putin to say, ‘If you are using cluster bombs, then it is fine for us to do so as well or to use some other nasty’. And in other conflicts various insalubrious groups will also use it as an excuse.

I suspect it's a case of, lesser of two evils. From what I gather from the reports, it seems that one of the main reasons the USA has decided to give Ukraine cluster bombs is that the West is starting to run out of other weapons to give Ukraine (at least, without compromising our own defences beyond what's considered acceptable) so it's possibly a case of, cluster bombs or nothing, and then see Ukraine's current counter-attack much more likely to fail.

I don't particularly like that the USA has resorted to supplying them, but I'd like it even less if we weren't able to give Ukraine any more weapons. Besides, the USA has never signed up to any ban on cluster bombs so it doesn't really change anything from that point of view.

 

[Annetts key]

I suspect it's a case of, lesser of two evils. From what I gather from the reports, it seems that one of the main reasons the USA has decided to give Ukraine cluster bombs is that the West is starting to run out of other weapons to give Ukraine (at least, without compromising our own defences beyond what's considered acceptable) so it's possibly a case of, cluster bombs or nothing, and then see Ukraine's current counter-attack much more likely to fail.

I don't particularly like that the USA has resorted to supplying them, but I'd like it even less if we weren't able to give Ukraine any more weapons.

Allegedly the request was first made last year. It’s rather a poor show that the West has not managed to ramp up production of conventional and precision artillery ammunition.

Besides, the USA has never signed up to any ban on cluster bombs so it doesn't really change anything from that point of view.

The USA has indeed not signed the international treaty. However, they had passed their own law. This apparently limits use of cluster munitions that have a failure rate that is worse than 1%.

As I understand it, the President has overridden this law, as the cluster munitions they have available have a failure rate worse than this (allegedly 2.5% to 3% at best but this figure is unproven and hence disputed).

 

[gingerheid]

Although I would prefer a world in which Ukraine was provided with much much more of less dodgy things, the cold reality is nevertheless that Ukraine needs to use whatever it can get and disregard and suggestions that it should attempt to conduct itself in a way that would cause it to be presented well in Russian propaganda.

Really my only hesitation is that these are things that could have unintended consequences for themselves. If they were using them against military targets in actual Russia then that would be a better situation.

 

[Loppylugs]

Can someone explain to me why the West has to inform the rest of the world (and especially Russia) of all the weapons/tanks/aircraft being supplied to Ukraine? Would it not be better to keep quiet and not let the Russians know what was coming their way? We never hear the Russians telling us where they obtain their supplies or the actual stuff involved.

 

[bspahh]

Can someone explain to me why the West has to inform the rest of the world (and especially Russia) of all the weapons/tanks/aircraft being supplied to Ukraine? Would it not be better to keep quiet and not let the Russians know what was coming their way? We never hear the Russians telling us where they obtain their supplies or the actual stuff involved.

Those statements are for public opinion in the West, which is necessary to maintain the political will for the support to continue.

The Russian government feel that they don't need to reciprocate.

 

[edwin_m]

Can someone explain to me why the West has to inform the rest of the world (and especially Russia) of all the weapons/tanks/aircraft being supplied to Ukraine? Would it not be better to keep quiet and not let the Russians know what was coming their way? We never hear the Russians telling us where they obtain their supplies or the actual stuff involved.

They pretty much did that with Storm Shadow - there was a very short interval between the first announcement and the first use, so they had obviously been positioning them and doing setup and training before the announcement.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Can someone explain to me why the West has to inform the rest of the world (and especially Russia) of all the weapons/tanks/aircraft being supplied to Ukraine? Would it not be better to keep quiet and not let the Russians know what was coming their way? We never hear the Russians telling us where they obtain their supplies or the actual stuff involved.

Because we are (generally) democracies and Russia isn't?

 

[brad465]

Can someone explain to me why the West has to inform the rest of the world (and especially Russia) of all the weapons/tanks/aircraft being supplied to Ukraine? Would it not be better to keep quiet and not let the Russians know what was coming their way? We never hear the Russians telling us where they obtain their supplies or the actual stuff involved.

While they don't tell us outright we know where Russia has got some of its weapons from. For example it has reportedly got drones from Iran believed to have been (poorly) reverse engineered from Western drones, and supposedly sanctions have led to them getting chips for their own weapons from washing machines, etc.

 

[87electric]

So many armchair generals on here, it sickens me to the bottom of my stomach that anyone wants to advocate cluster bombs at all. It makes a mockery of the CCM treaty signed by the UK who silently condone the USA in using them.

 

[DustyBin]

So many armchair generals on here, it sickens me to the bottom of my stomach that anyone wants to advocate cluster bombs at all. It makes a mockery of the CCM treaty signed by the UK who silently condone the USA in using them.

It’s not ideal but there are mitigating factors here, including:

1. Ukraine is literally in an existential fight (not of it’s own making).

2. Ukraine will be using them on its own territory.

3. Russia itself isn’t a signatory.

4. Russia is using cluster bombs (and worse) in Ukraine.

So whilst it would be lovely to be able to claim that the West and Ukraine are squeaky clean, this is really a minor “indiscretion”. We need to be careful not to do Putin’s bidding for him here when he’s committed war crime after war crime from day one.

What’s the delivery mechanism for these cluster munitions out of interest?

 

[Dent]

It makes a mockery of the CCM treaty signed by the UK who silently condone the USA in using them.

The UK is not "silently condoning" them. See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-66144153

In response, the UK, Canada, New Zealand and Spain all said they were opposed to the use of the weapons.

See also https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66142554

Rishi Sunak says the UK discourages use of cluster bombs in Ukraine

 

[Annetts key]

The real questions are:

• Where are the F16 aircraft?
• Where is all the pilot training that has been promised?
• More long distance missiles are needed. Okay the U.K. and France are providing Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG, but it’s taking far too long for the U.S.A. to provide ATACMS and GLSDB.
• Why is it that the “West” has been unable to ramp up production of conventional and precision artillery munitions? They’ve had 500 days.

If all of the above had been sorted out sooner, there would, most likely, not have been a need to even consider supplying cluster munitions.

It also has to be said, why has the U.S.A. been keeping these old cluster munitions? Especially as they are supposed to be developing new weapons to replace conventional cluster munitions.