What will the railways look like under the next government?

[D365]

Of course DRS and ROG are currently nationalised by the British Government...

I wasn't aware that ROG (or Star Capital) are in public ownership.

 

[Kingston Dan]

OK - what do you mean by “it” ? There‘s about 4 versions of HS2 out there…

The original 'Y' shaped network including Leeds (as per Tracey Brabin's demands)

 

[HSTEd]

The original 'Y' shaped network including Leeds (as per Tracey Brabin's demands)

The one with Meadowhall or the post Meadowhall one?

 

[Bald Rick]

The original 'Y' shaped network including Leeds (as per Tracey Brabin's demands)

The one with Meadowhall or the post Meadowhall one?

And via Toton or East Mids Parkway?

And Golborne link?

 

[43066]

And via Toton or East Mids Parkway?

Toton always seemed like a fairly bonkers suggestion.

 

[JonathanH]

Toton always seemed like a fairly bonkers suggestion.

But had the advantage of using land the railway already owned, and access to the A52 for both Derby and Nottingham.

 

[HSTEd]

Toton always seemed like a fairly bonkers suggestion.

I can't see how it is less sensible than East Midlands Parkway, which is handy for essentially nothing apart from a soon to close coal power plant!

At least Toton is somewhat near populated areas. East Midlands is a French style station-in-a-beet-field. Whilst EMP, in theory, allows trains to serve central Nottingham, there are unlikely to be any core paths for them in a world where we are building the originally projected Y system.

 

[43066]

I can't see how it is less sensible than East Midlands Parkway, which is handy for essentially nothing apart from a soon to close cola power plant!

At least Toton is somewhat near populated areas. East Midlands is a French style station-in-a-beet-field. Whilst EMP, in theory, allows trains to serve central Nottingham, there are unlikely to be any core paths for them in a world where we are building the originally projected Y network.

Fair points. Both are clearly sub optimal. The access to Nottingham made EMP seem more sensible than Toton, though.

 

[JonathanH]

Whilst EMP, in theory, allows trains to serve central Nottingham, there are unlikely to be any core paths for them in a world where we are building the originally projected Y system.

Isn't the idea that EMP allows 18 minute journeys from Birmingham to Nottingham? Does the full Y (and EMP substituted for Toton) prevent those services because of a lack of capacity between the Delta Junction and the point at which the link to Crewe leaves the main route?

 

[HSTEd]

Isn't the idea that EMP allows 18 minute journeys from Birmingham to Nottingham? Does the full Y (and EMP substituted for Toton) prevent those services because of a lack of capacity between the Delta Junction and the point at which the link to Crewe leaves the main route?

There may be capacity between Birmingham and Nottingham in such a plan, but there probably is no capability for useful services between the Nottingham area and points north, or from the Nottingham area to London.

So is that really worth it?

EDIT:

I doubt that, given the crawl out to EMP will consume several minutes by itself, that they will be able to manage 18 minutes from Birmingham to Nottingham.

 

[43066]

So is that really worth it?

For HS2 as a whole?

The jury is well and truly out.

 

[tomuk]

But had the advantage of using land the railway already owned, and access to the A52 for both Derby and Nottingham.

But disadvantaged both Derby and Nottingham as all journeys would require at best an additional 30 min commute to the parkway station. And would require extensions of both tram and train services to Toton to make it viable.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 18 Jun 2023 ==

I can't see how it is less sensible than East Midlands Parkway, which is handy for essentially nothing apart from a soon to close coal power plant!

At least Toton is somewhat near populated areas. East Midlands is a French style station-in-a-beet-field. Whilst EMP, in theory, allows trains to serve central Nottingham, there are unlikely to be any core paths for them in a world where we are building the originally projected Y system.

But it goes to Nottingham city centre where all the existing transport networks converge.

 

[HSTEd]

But it goes to Nottingham city centre where all the existing transport networks converge.

If we were building the full Y system that was originally projected there will be precious few paths available to actually serve Nottingham from London.

And once you crawl out to EMP on the conventional railway you will have spent quite a lot of your journey time savings from avoiding the Transfer to Toton.

Real Road based transport solutions also don't like city centres very much - so its actually only a small portion of the Nottingham area that is actually substantially further in journey time from Toton than the existing railway station.

Buses serving Toton would be a better solution than cutting off Nottingham from HS2 journeys to the North and crippling HS2 service to London.

 

[Kingston Dan]

If we were building the full Y system that was originally projected there will be precious few paths available to actually serve Nottingham from London.

And once you crawl out to EMP on the conventional railway you will have spent quite a lot of your journey time savings from avoiding the Transfer to Toton.

Real Road based transport solutions also don't like city centres very much - so its actually only a small portion of the Nottingham area that is actually substantially further in journey time from Toton than the existing railway station.

Buses serving Toton would be a better solution than cutting off Nottingham from HS2 journeys to the North and crippling HS2 service to London.

Wasn't the whole point of Toton was to extend the trams to Nottingham (and Derby)?

 

[TheWalrus]

Assuming Labour get in will they start doing a rolling programme of electrification or at least propose more electrification in the run up to the election?

 

[Bartsimho]

Wasn't the whole point of Toton was to extend the trams to Nottingham (and Derby)?

Yeah it is. There is a planned tram extension of only 1km over empty fields from the existing tram terminator at Toton Lane to Toton sidings which would be grade separated as well.

Derby has no Tram network at all and is unlikely to have Nottinghams extended being in a different county with different priorities. Having it at Toton would justify a service along the regular lines to connect which would also increase services to Spondon and Long Eaton as well as the service being able to connect to Ilkeston and Alfreton (the council would like this as they are all in Derbyshire)

 

[JonathanH]

Assuming Labour get in will they start doing a rolling programme of electrification or at least propose more electrification in the run up to the election?

Isn't there already a rolling programme of electrification? I think the question you are asking is whether they are prepared to table more money than the £96bn in the IRP, which includes electrification work.

Given where inflation has gone, it doesn't seem obvious, as at least some of the money is going to have to be spent on the 'inflation strain'.

 

[Bald Rick]

If we were building the full Y system that was originally projected there will be precious few paths available to actually serve Nottingham from London.

it’s safe to assume that if the full Y was built, there would be paths available to serve Nottingham directly.

 

[LUYMun]

Also in the run up to an election in the not-too-distant-future, would Labour be reviewing the HS2 project in terms of bringing back several elements taken away by this current government?

 

[JonathanH]

Also in the run up to an election in the not-too-distant-future, would Labour be reviewing the HS2 project in terms of bringing back several elements taken away by this current government?

They don't have access to more money, just redistribution of the existing money. It will come down to their priorities.

There can be accusations that the current government are hiving off money to their "friends and cronies" but, even if they were, the amounts would be small and not form money that can be redirected to the railways.

Will Labour be pushing up tax revenues?

 

[zwk500]

They don't have access to more money, just redistribution of the existing money. It will come down to their priorities.

They do have access to the borrowing markets though, which is how electrification is paid for (not from taxes). If they wanted to a reasonable programme of electrification could easily be paid for without the markets batting an eyelid. However that then leaves them open to political attacks which don't have to worry about accuracy and comprehensive understanding of economic theory, so you are right that it will come down to their priorities.

 

[javelin]

They do have access to the borrowing markets though, which is how electrification is paid for (not from taxes). If they wanted to a reasonable programme of electrification could easily be paid for without the markets batting an eyelid. However that then leaves them open to political attacks which don't have to worry about accuracy and comprehensive understanding of economic theory, so you are right that it will come down to their priorities.

Yeah infrastructure funding tends to be borrowed, but the investors from whom the money is being borrowed are real people who want their money back. If they aren't convinced the government is serious about doing that then the investment becomes riskier, and the cost to government of borrowing the money increases. See Liz Truss spending on tax cuts causing investors to lose faith and so charge more for their money. That whole debacle showed how little freedom on further borrowing the government has.

Starmer can't go on a borrowing spree without significantly raising taxes because that will cause investors to question how the government is going to repay them. To be fair Starmer has pointed that out, there's just going to be a lot of disappointed people who have ignored this and still expect incontinent spending because they don't have a "comprehensive understanding of economic theory".

Keir Starmer: Labour won't spend its way out of Tory 'mess'

The Labour leader says investment is needed but "there is no substitute for a robust private sector".

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[zwk500]

Yeah infrastructure funding tends to be borrowed, but the investors from whom the money is being borrowed are real people who want their money back. If they aren't convinced the government is serious about doing that then the investment becomes riskier, and the cost to government of borrowing the money increases.

Treasury Gilts are among the safest bonds in the world, and we're a long way from the point where modest electrification programmes would cause the market to significantly wobble. I agree we can't just go out and electrify the whole network without spooking investors, but electrification has proven to spark economic activity and therefore raise tax revenue without needing tax rates to rise in the same proportion.

 

[Bald Rick]

Treasury Gilts are among the safest bonds in the world, and we're a long way from the point where modest electrification programmes would cause the market to significantly wobble. I agree we can't just go out and electrify the whole network without spooking investors, but electrification has proven to spark economic activity and therefore raise tax revenue without needing tax rates to rise in the same proportion.

Well, yes, but the Government has to take a broader view. If it is to borrow money for infrastructure projects it will deliver better socio-economic results through building some new hospitals, or better environmental results from insulating lots of homes.

 

[zwk500]

Well, yes, but the Government has to take a broader view. If it is to borrow money for infrastructure projects it will deliver better socio-economic results through building some new hospitals, or better environmental results from insulating lots of homes.

Indeed, and that's why it's about priorities and scale. But Scotland seems to be cracking on with electrification plans without spooking the markets and HS2 and TRU are also being paid for with borrowing so it's not that the government can't get the money for infrastructure investment.
What spooked the markets under Truss and Kwarteng were tax cuts without clear plans for the revenue to be covered elsewhere, not excessive borrowing (although that has caused problems in the past).
What is really hurting the UK now is the fallout from the Kwarteng budget not having been managed properly by a range of bodies that has led to the interest rates demanded for UK gilts to be higher, making it more expensive to borrow the money and thereby weakening the case for projects as the socio economic benefits don't cover as much of the bind repayments and the shortfall needs to be covered from elsewhere.

 

[156421]

Flask work isn't diminishing any time soon I suspect.

It's not my field at all but from what I understand the flask work was fuel rods and highly contaminated components. They also move the containers that contain everything including the protective overalls used by staff cleaning up and this is railed, I immagine if it could be sent by road it would be. I suspect there is probably decades if not 50 years minimum of Decommissioning work for DRS and we still have a few plants that are still operational let alone the new builds.

Flask work is only a fraction of what it once was. All Magnox reactors fully defueled and only 8 AGRs still going, plus the occasional shipment of exotic fuel from Dounreay, Harwell, or Winfrith places where they had research reactors. The odd submarine reactor now and again but how often realistically does a boat come out of service. I'd expect a bow wave of flask movements once the AGRs stop powering (currently 2028) but otherwise it's a grim future for flask movements and the UK nuclear industry. Very much seems like the falling crest of a wave.

As for road transport, these are probably a bit heavy... 44.6 tonnes (plus payload - couple of tonnes of uranium and cover water) not to mention the security concerns.

 

[yorksrob]

Until fusion is a viable alternative, it's hard to see how the country will get by without replacing the existing nuclear power stations.

 

[zwk500]

Until fusion is a viable alternative, it's hard to see how the country will get by without replacing the existing nuclear power stations.

Indeed, we should have been building them decades ago.

 

[Mikey C]

Very little will change if Labour win the next election. Even if they wanted to, it's not as if they can suddenly start new electrification projects, as they'll take several years to get going.

 

[Thirteen]

I would imagine a Labour Government would be willing to restore funding to TfL for certain projects like the Deep Level Tube Upgrade, new Trams and the Thamesmead DLR extension or at least let them borrow more money.