What will the railways look like under the next government?

[bramling]

Not at all - I do realise that for the last 30 years it has been split.

But both main unions have their stated aim of a 'fully nationalised and vertically integrated railway' (the ASLEF response to the Williams review states that clearly) - note *railway*, not *passenger railway* - so can you provide any evidence the unions wouldn't want the freight operators brought under state control, rather than accusing me of paranoia ?

Whether or not the unions want that outcome, realistically I’m not sure they would have any leverage to achieve it. In any case, we already have the situation where certain TOCs are run by the state and others aren’t.

 

[Kite159]

All the promised made pre-election will disappear once the party are into power, and the railways will carry on as usual, just with less funding for improvement works.

 

[A0]

Do Labour have any friends in the unions these days?

I wouldn't expect much change from a government led by Starmer, who has already backtracked on most of his election promises. But whether or not the railways are 'nationalised', one would hope that any sensible government would challenge the practice of handing out subsidies for private firms to pass on to their shareholders, rather than investing in the infrastructure, and reverse the fragmentation of the network into competing and confusing disparate elements.

Two points - the freight operators are largely unsubsidised.

The passenger TOCs are running on margins of about 3% - so the "profit" level is minimal. If you want to reduce the costs of the railways you need to look at the biggest costs - which inevitably is staffing.

 

[Bald Rick]

Labour will win a comfortable overall majority.

it’s the most likely outcome, but by no means a certainty. To a large extent it depends on what happens in Scotland.

In addition to bringing the passenger franchises back in house they will also build HS2 in full.

they’d need to be in power for 15 years to do that. What is ‘in full’ anyway?

 

[tomuk]

they’d need to be in power for 15 years to do that. What is ‘in full’ anyway?

Indeed the eastern leg of HS2 never really meshed with NPR, the correct approach for Sheffield is debateable and change to serve Nottingham is an improvement over Toton Parkway. So I think a though review of all of that would be in order rather than just ploughing ahead with the as prior envisaged HS2 East.

 

[Thirteen]

I think the Intercity routes will go under GBR but I think we might see some of the metro services transferred to the different bodies to run locally, some of the Southern and SWR services could be transferred to TfL for example and possibly Thameslink and some of Great Northern.

 

[Sm5]

Labour will win a comfortable overall majority. In addition to bringing the passenger franchises back in house they will also build HS2 in full. Andy Burnham and Tracey Brabin will be key players outside of Westminster with real experience of governing.

Ive never seen Andy Burnham govern.
Everytime ive seen him he’s screaming, shouting, ranting and other spoilt child like behaviour.
Statesman he is not, he would need to start using his ears at someone elses wave length for that.

 

[whoosh]

Two points - the freight operators are largely unsubsidised.

The passenger TOCs are running on margins of about 3% - so the "profit" level is minimal. If you want to reduce the costs of the railways you need to look at the biggest costs - which inevitably is staffing.

You forgot the five figure sums, per month, per coach, leasing charges, and their associated profit.

 

[Sm5]

Two points - the freight operators are largely unsubsidised.

and if the government didnt make the right offer, two of those companies have european operations using the same type of locos, making finding a new home for them relatively easy, and the threat there of even easier.

 

[778]

It does surprise me that Labour doesn't go for the concessions model like MTR and the Elizabeth Line. I assume that TOCs that are owned by TfL, Merseytravel etc would remain outside of Government control and indeed perhaps some services will end up going to TfL like some of the metro services.

Would a Labour government be more likely to let TFL take over the Southeastern metro services?

 

[HSTEd]

Well the big question on this front is whether labour attempt to rejoin the single market.

If that happens then we will return to the pre coronavirus franchise model as the EU requires it.

Otherwise it will be slow motion nationalisation.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Jun 2023 ==

Two points - the freight operators are largely unsubsidised

The freight operators pay around £50m a year for all their infrastructure access.

The true value of that access is hundreds of millions of pounds a year, at least.
Freight subsidies may be hidden but they certainly exist.

 

[Russel]

Are you seriously suggesting the RMT / ASLEF et al will agree to a situation where their members in the passenger operations are employed by the state, whilst those in freight operations aren't ?

They probably have the ballot papers printed already.

 

[Bantamzen]

Considering Starmer's proposed Great British Energy, I think the chances of GBR remaining the name are very high.

Have you actually read the <cough> proposal? Its no more than soundbites and platitudes, oh and some blaming. I wouldn't hold your breath on a future Labour government delivering much of anything GBR-wise for a long time.

 

[zwk500]

Would a Labour government be more likely to let TFL take over the Southeastern metro services?

Depends who's in city hall. But either way I think a transfer is extremely unlikely. Breaking up SE is bad for a number of reasons, and the things that make TfL look good in relation to what came before require lots of money, which is something TfL doesn't have at the moment. What Labour may be more amenable to (and is by far the best option for such lines) is for TfL to have branding and service spec input to the Metro services, even if they're not a fully separate concession.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Jun 2023 ==

I would expect that they might stick a "part of Great British Railways" on the devolved brands and then leave the rest alone.

And Scottish Government and TfW would rip that sticker off the moment it was applied.

IMHO, most likely option: More franchises taken over by state-owned holding companies as they expire. Structure largely stays as it is, with minor reform around the edges to look like they're doing something, possibly more branding unity. HS2 is committed to Euston and Manchester, but Eastern branch is well and truly kicked down road (think Rugby-style conversion from halfway line), while Golborne link not resurrected. Existing electrification of MML maintained, maybe some additional infill in the Sheffield-Liverpool-Leeds-Hull diamond, and a few more stations, maybe with 1 or 2 lines reopened to passengers for commuters (Cowley, Waterside Line, Grain, etc). Funding for enhancements like ETCS constricted but not cut off.

 

[A0]

You forgot the five figure sums, per month, per coach, leasing charges, and their associated profit.

That's a bit of a red herring though, because you have to obtain rolling stock somehow - it's a bit like buying a private car - you can either save up so you have the cash, which takes many years, you can borrow to buy outright, or you can lease for a period effectively "borrowing" a car for a period. The only one of those where the finance industry isn't making money on the transaction through interest or borrowing charges is where you save up the cash.

Same is true of railway rolling stock. And since the "save up until you have the cash" option doesn't work, you end up with some form of borrowing to meet it.

 

[RobShipway]

Apologises, if this has been mentioned previously in the thread, but if bringing everything back in house means that you are bringing not only passengers services, but freight services too back under state control, then you are likely to see more lorries back on the road with that I suspect, then you are currently seeing with less lorries being on the road with private companies having more ability and spending power to be obtaining more in the way of needed locomotives and trailers etc... for carrying goods.

Yes, you have Direct Rail services which is a publicly owned company that has class 57, 66, 68 and 88 within it's fleet. But you also have Rail Operations Group, which if I am not wrong is a privately funded company which has class 37 locomotives in it's fleet but will soon also be having 30 class 93 bi-mode locomotives, plus class 768 bi-mode multiple units and class 319 dual voltage units. There is also GB Railfreight which has many locomotives in it's fleet, with the class 99 joining the fleet from 2025. Not forgetting DB Cargo, Colas Rail and Freighliner all of which I believe are privately owned?

I can see passenger services being brought under public control, but I cannot see freight going the same way as it needs to be the freight businesses themselves making the changes or being pushed to make those changes by their customers whose goods are being delivered. That would not be able to happen, if freight companies are publicly owned.

 

[zwk500]

I can see passenger services being brought under public control, but I cannot see freight going the same way as it needs to be the freight businesses themselves making the changes or being pushed to make those changes by their customers whose goods are being delivered. That would not be able to happen, if freight companies are publicly owned.

Agree, freight will be left well alone. There's no political reason to touch it.

 

[Bald Rick]

Not forgetting that the DB freight operation in this country is publicly owned. (For now)

 

[Mikey C]

Railways will be a long way down the list of priorities for Labour if they win, so I wouldn't expect major changes soon after an election.

 

[eldomtom2]

Have you actually read the <cough> proposal? Its no more than soundbites and platitudes, oh and some blaming. I wouldn't hold your breath on a future Labour government delivering much of anything GBR-wise for a long time.

I was merely commenting on the name...

 

[Bantamzen]

I was merely commenting on the name...

Okay, but with respect the name is really not that important in comparison to what the organisation might look like.

 

[eldomtom2]

Okay, but with respect the name is really not that important in comparison to what the organisation might look like.

Well, the subject of the name got brought up, so I thought I might comment on it...

 

[D365]

Yes, you have Direct Rail services which is a publicly owned company that has class 57, 66, 68 and 88 within it's fleet. But you also have Rail Operations Group, which if I am not wrong is a privately funded company which has class 37 locomotives in it's fleet but will soon also be having 30 class 93 bi-mode locomotives, plus class 768 bi-mode multiple units and class 319 dual voltage units. There is also GB Railfreight which has many locomotives in it's fleet, with the class 99 joining the fleet from 2025. Not forgetting DB Cargo, Colas Rail and Freighliner all of which I believe are privately owned?

Not sure what your post is getting at? If we exclude DRS, only DB Cargo and Freightliner have any direct link to British Rail. All other FOCs, to the best of my knowledge, were set up as private concerns. I don't think anybody is seriously suggesting that the UK Government would have the means to buy out all railfreight operators.

 

[Bald Rick]

I don't think anybody is seriously suggesting that the UK Government would have the means to buy out all railfreight operators.

it wouldn’t cost much.

but it won’t happen.

 

[Kingston Dan]

it’s the most likely outcome, but by no means a certainty. To a large extent it depends on what happens in Scotland.




they’d need to be in power for 15 years to do that. What is ‘in full’ anyway?

Commit to building it in full is what I meant

 

[Bald Rick]

Commit to building it in full is what I meant

OK - what do you mean by “it” ? There‘s about 4 versions of HS2 out there…

 

[RobShipway]

Not sure what your post is getting at? If we exclude DRS, only DB Cargo and Freightliner have any direct link to British Rail. All other FOCs, to the best of my knowledge, were set up as private concerns. I don't think anybody is seriously suggesting that the UK Government would have the means to buy out all railfreight operators.

I am getting at the point when it comes to Rail freight businesses, it would be better for any new government to let them follow their own paths rather than bring them into a new British Rail operating all passengers and freight trains.

 

[D365]

… rather than bring them into a new British Rail operating all passengers and freight trains.

This is why I am puzzled about your postings, as I’m not aware of any suggestion that freight should be nationalised.

 

[CBlue]

I am getting at the point when it comes to Rail freight businesses, it would be better for any new government to let them follow their own paths rather than bring them into a new British Rail operating all passengers and freight trains.

Were the freight operators planned to be nationalised?

 

[zwk500]

Were the freight operators planned to be nationalised?

Not under any GBR proposals AIUI. Of course DRS and ROG are currently nationalised by the British Government, and DB's eventual parent company is the German Government, but the proposal made no suggestion the FOC structure would change in any meaningful way.