Russia invades Ukraine

[Parjon]

Russian government going to extremes to try and justify their actions. They are serial liars and mass murderers, with form for this kind of thing.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Russian government going to extremes to try and justify their actions. They are serial liars and mass murderers, with form for this kind of thing.

I think if it was the Russian Government faking the Moscow attacks as a red flag operation, they would have done it they night before they launched a massive missile strike on Kyiv, not the night after: That would have made much more sense from a propaganda point of view, making it easier to both falsely paint it as an unprovoked attack and to falsely present their own attack on Kyiv as justified retaliation.

 

[Parjon]

They're not looking to justify their normal indiscriminate murder. They are fine with that.

Not even their own people would believe Ukraine would launch an attack like this without it being tit for tat.

Russia's government knows it's about to be turfed out of Ukraine and so they are clamouring for justifications (for consumption by their own people - everyone else knows they are incapable of telling the truth) for more extreme attacks.

 

[Trackman]

I think if it was the Russian Government faking the Moscow attacks as a red flag operation, they would have done it they night before they launched a massive missile strike on Kyiv, not the night after: That would have made much more sense from a propaganda point of view, making it easier to both falsely paint it as an unprovoked attack and to falsely present their own attack on Kyiv as justified retaliation.

I'd like to know why these drones are not being detected before they hit the Moscow area, they must travel a very long distance if they are launched from Ukraine.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I'd like to know why these drones are not being detected before they hit the Moscow area, they must travel a very long distance if they are launched from Ukraine.

I think we have ample evidence from previous attacks that Russia's air defences are pretty poor and may well miss drones even over very long distances. Besides, it's also becoming clear from previous attacks - and the recent incursion on the border near Belgorod - that Ukrainian sympathisers are now able operate within Russia to at least a limited extent - which raises the possibility that maybe drones could be launched from within Russia, closer to Moscow.

 

[najaB]

I'd like to know why these drones are not being detected before they hit the Moscow area, they must travel a very long distance if they are launched from Ukraine.

I would like to know too, but only from the perspective of making sure that our defence systems don't have any of the same flaws.

 

[birchesgreen]

I'd like to know why these drones are not being detected before they hit the Moscow area, they must travel a very long distance if they are launched from Ukraine.

Maybe Mathias Rust gave them some hints and tips.

 

[Yew]

I would like to know too, but only from the perspective of making sure that our defence systems don't have any of the same flaws.

I imagine the answer is that they will be flying very low, and following the terrain to avoid being caught by radar.

 

[brad465]

Shelling has been reported in Belgorod, the area attacked by Russians fighting for Ukraine recently:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-65774993

What we know about shelling in Belgorod​

There have been conflicting reports about the violence on the border in the Belgorod region of south-west Russia.
Russian social media channels first reported fighting at the Shebekino border checkpoint early this morning.
BBC Verify has seen videos from two pro-Ukrainian paramilitary groups announcing raids into Russia’s territory.
In one video, shared by the Russian Volunteer Corps, a man in military gear says their fighters were "once again fighting on Russian territory" and that "the outskirts of Shebekino will soon become visible". It is unclear where or when these videos were filmed.
Despite this, local officials have denied reports of a Ukrainian troop breakthrough in the Shebekino sector, adding that the situation remains difficult and that the “shelling is ongoing”.
We're looking for footage on social media that can shed light on the conflicting statements and will bring updates when we can.

 

[Russel]

Shelling has been reported in Belgorod, the area attacked by Russians fighting for Ukraine recently:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-65774993

This, along with the drone attacks on Moscow over recent days is getting quite difficult to keep up with, the conflicting news stories are also adding to the confusion.

If these are being carried out by Ukraine, I can't help but feel it's a not very wise escalation, especially considering Russia will retaliate by throwing missiles at civilian apartment blocks and hospitals.

 

[ainsworth74]

I can't help but feel it's a not very wise escalation, especially considering Russia will retaliate by throwing missiles at civilian apartment blocks and hospitals.

So another day ending in "Y" then sadly?

 

[Strathclyder]

If these are being carried out by Ukraine, I can't help but feel it's a not very wise escalation, especially considering Russia will retaliate by throwing more missiles at civilian apartment blocks and hospitals.

Amended that for you. Regardless of what crawls out of the propaganda machine, it'll be more of the same mindless carnage, suffering and complete disregard for human life that we've seen thus far courtesy of Russia/Putin.

 

[najaB]

If these are being carried out by Ukraine, I can't help but feel it's a not very wise escalation, especially considering Russia will retaliate by throwing missiles at civilian apartment blocks and hospitals.

Uhm... Russia's been throwing missiles at Ukrainian civilian targets for more than a year!

 

[edwin_m]

Assuming it's Ukraine that's doing this and the intent is to hit Russian civilian targets, I do believe it is unwise for the reasons I posted previously.

But also, as Ukraine advances or if another area of combat opens up, we may be in the situation where the front lines are very close to the internationally recognised border and Russia is firing artillery or shorter-range rocketry on Ukraine from the other side. In that case Ukraine would have to go after the guns and launchers and the supporting logistics which will be deeper into Russia. But if they are still barred from targeting Russian territory with donated weaponry then they will have very little else available for this task. Ukraine would have to get agreement from their donor countries to waive that condition, and if they've been making random incursions or targeting civilians then it may be less easy for the West to grant them that.

As a side note, the Belgorod incursion may have been intended to force Russia to move troops from the front lines to guard its border, but equally Ukraine will have to move troops to its own side of the border in case those extra Russian troops threaten to open another front. Hitting Moscow doesn't have that consequence, as any Russian forces protecting Moscow are essentially out of the fight.

 

[Russel]

Uhm... Russia's been throwing missiles at Ukrainian civilian targets for more than a year!

Yeah, I am well aware of that, thanks.

My point it that every time something like this happens, Russian missile attacks on civilian infrastructure intensifies.

 

[Broucek]

My point it that every time something like this happens, Russian missile attacks on civilian infrastructure intensifies.

Yeah, those pesky Ukrainians keep forcing the Russians to attack civilians...

 

[Russel]

Yeah, those pesky Ukrainians keep forcing the Russians to attack civilians...

That's not what I was suggesting and you know it wasn't.

 

[najaB]

That's not what I was suggesting and you know it wasn't.

The Russians attack Ukrainian civilian infrastructure without provocation, so why shouldn't the Ukrainians hit back?

 

[edwin_m]

The Russians attack Ukrainian civilian infrastructure without provocation, so why shouldn't the Ukrainians hit back?

Because they're better than that?

Because the Blitz on British towns, and many other similar events, demonstrate that indiscriminate bombing doesn't break civilian morale?

 

[Killingworth]

Because they're better than that?

Because the Blitz on British towns, and many other similar events, demonstrate that indiscriminate bombing doesn't break civilian morale?

Exactly that. If anything bombing tends to harden resolve against those doing the bombing.

 

[DustyBin]

Exactly that. If anything bombing tends to harden resolve against those doing the bombing.

I suspect Ukraine knew exactly what they were doing, and it appears to have worked. There’s been no atrocity committed that risks uniting ordinary Russians behind Putin, just a few explosions to spread fear and bring home the reality of what the regime has done. We now have opposition politicians publicly calling for Putin to be removed from power, which doesn’t ordinarily happen (believe it or not). It’s possible that this has damaged Putin far more than we realise, but I agree that Ukraine should tread carefully.

 

[najaB]

Because the Blitz on British towns, and many other similar events, demonstrate that indiscriminate bombing doesn't break civilian morale?

But it's not indiscriminate, and certainly not on the scale of the Blitz. It has been just enough to cause the war to seem a little closer to home for Muscovites than it has up until now.

 

[Strathclyder]

We now have opposition politicians publicly calling for Putin to be removed from power, which doesn’t ordinarily happen (believe it or not).

Best thing for those politicians to do for the foreseeable is to avoid open windows in tall buildings. Or turn down any drinks or food they didn't make themselves.

 

[ainsworth74]

More the point, whether or not bringing the war home to average Russians is a good idea or not, it requires Russia to redeploy precious ground units from Ukraine to Belgorod and air defence assets from Ukraine to Moscow, Kursk, Belgorod and other places to boot. Thinning their air defence network over Ukraine.

I can see perfectly reasonable military goals being achieved by a few small scale strikes in Russia itself. But if it turns out it is just attempts at lashing out, inflicting terror, etc then Ukraine itself will have questions to answer.

But personally I suspect this is just another shaping operation to force the Russians to do things they don't want to and weaken their positions in Ukraine.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I wonder if there might also be an element of: These are Russian citizens who wish to bring about regime change in Russia: I would guess they are therefore probably much more motivated to fight within Russia than to join any battles in Ukraine, and might even simply not be willing to join Ukrainian forces directly. If my guess is correct, then giving them the weapons and some guidance and then allowing them to do what they want within Russia would be the best use Ukraine can make of them.

 

[Cloud Strife]

If my guess is correct, then giving them the weapons and some guidance and then allowing them to do what they want within Russia would be the best use Ukraine can make of them.

That seems to be exactly what is happening. It distracts Russia in a major way, causes panic on the Russian internet, and provokes even more infighting within the Kremlin.

Ukraine is saying that they're ready for the counterattack, but you still have to wonder: is this another propaganda trick by Ukraine? They keep crying wolf about the counterattack, but are they really sitting back and waiting for the right gap in the Russian defences? The OpSec has been unbelievable so far.

 

[Sm5]

I think if it was the Russian Government faking the Moscow attacks as a red flag operation, they would have done it they night before they launched a massive missile strike on Kyiv, not the night after: That would have made much more sense from a propaganda point of view, making it easier to both falsely paint it as an unprovoked attack and to falsely present their own attack on Kyiv as justified retaliation.

Dont assume the left and right hand of Russias govt are in sync.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Jun 2023 ==

Assuming it's Ukraine that's doing this and the intent is to hit Russian civilian targets, I do believe it is unwise for the reasons I posted previously.

But also, as Ukraine advances or if another area of combat opens up, we may be in the situation where the front lines are very close to the internationally recognised border and Russia is firing artillery or shorter-range rocketry on Ukraine from the other side. In that case Ukraine would have to go after the guns and launchers and the supporting logistics which will be deeper into Russia. But if they are still barred from targeting Russian territory with donated weaponry then they will have very little else available for this task. Ukraine would have to get agreement from their donor countries to waive that condition, and if they've been making random incursions or targeting civilians then it may be less easy for the West to grant them that.

As a side note, the Belgorod incursion may have been intended to force Russia to move troops from the front lines to guard its border, but equally Ukraine will have to move troops to its own side of the border in case those extra Russian troops threaten to open another front. Hitting Moscow doesn't have that consequence, as any Russian forces protecting Moscow are essentially out of the fight.

They might be inviting Russia to open another front, and taunting them to do so.
if they have the western weaponry ready to hit them in a feint, and russia moves troops to the belgorod Ukrainian border, it means stretching Russian supply lines, and diverting supplies, hundreds of miles off course from the south.. opening a Ukrainian southern attack window.

to me the opening of this attack on Russia will come from another attack on the Crimea bridge, and some bridges on the Voronezh highway / railway south

 

[brad465]

There have been several reports of strikes/attacks in southern Ukraine occupied by Russia, including a railway hub around Melitopol and the port in Berdyansk:

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1665039582591680514

This is interesting. Railway lines blown up around Melitopol. It’s a pretty key Russian logistics hub for that bit of the front.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1665022904604454914

Melitopol and Berdyansk. Explosions reported based on preliminary info

My favourite "reporting" of this goes to this from Darth Putin:

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1664582900661243906

Russian air defences successfully intercepted a storm shadow missile at Berdyansk. Unfortunately the intact debris then struck intended target and detonated.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Jun 2023 ==

More developments in Belgorod:

Ukraine war: Anti-Kremlin fighters say Russian soldiers 'captured'

They say they will hand the men over to Ukraine, after accusing a Russian official of failing to meet them.

www.bbc.co.uk

Fighters opposed to the government in Moscow say they have captured some Russian soldiers in Belgorod, near the border with Ukraine.
Belgorod's top official said he had agreed to meet the men's captors if the soldiers were still alive.
But later the fighters said that the governor "had not found the courage" to meet them and they would hand over their captives to Ukraine.
Russia has blamed Ukraine for recent attacks in its border territories.
Kyiv denies being directly involved.
The Russian army said on Sunday its artillery had hit a "terrorist" group near the village of Novaya Tavolzhanka.
"The enemy scattered and retreated," the statement added.
Earlier, a group of paramilitaries issued a message on the Telegram app, saying they had captured two men but would hand them over if Belgorod governor Vyacheslav Gladkov agreed to talks.
The video purported to show both captives, although the BBC has been unable to independently verify their identities.
The message was posted by the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), and described as a joint statement with the Liberty of Russia Legion (FRL).
Mr Gladkov replied with his own Telegram video, saying he had agreed to the talks if the soldiers were shown to be still alive, adding that he thought they had probably been killed.
Later the RDK posted a further video, this time appearing to show more captives, in which they said that Mr Gladkov had failed to turn up for the meeting.
They said they would now hand over the captives to Ukraine, to be subject to an exchange with Ukrainian prisoners of war.

Both the RDK and the FRL want to topple President Vladimir Putin, and also oppose the full-scale invasion of Ukraine that he launched in February last year.
Ukrainian officials say the two paramilitary organisations consist of Russian citizens who want to create a "security zone" for Ukrainians.
The RDK came to prominence in March for a cross-border raid in Russia's Bryansk region. Its leader is a Russian nationalist with alleged links to neo-Nazis.
The FRL is considered a different sort of organisation that fights alongside Ukrainian troops against Russian forces.

 

[Pete_uk]

The Ukrainian counter offensive begins...

https://twitter.com/intermarium24/status/1665748337067171840?t=jp1nXVjjklBs8xqG1OvseQ&s=19

 

[adc82140]

It may or may not have have started. One thing's for certain, no one will be making a grand announcement, much to the disappointment of Sky News. Nor will the Ukrainian military be giving a running commentary.