Russia invades Ukraine

[neuralnet]

Like COVID all over again eh? Maybe it's the 5G. My signal strength is full bars, and I definitely believe we're doing the right thing.

Far from involving ourselves in other people's wars, we're defending the concept of free will and the right of peaceful societies to exist. Rather than giving Putin a silly slap, we're defending against dirty little bond villains whose idea of a future for humanity involves slavery and medieval barbarity.

Who has for the past 10 years been attacking this country through polarising activist funding, hacking and even poisoning dissidents on our soil. All the while conditioning and repressing their own population.

Repeating the lie that we blew up NordStream rather gives away your real "concern". The truth is that Russia blew it up themselves as a pretext, practice and attempt to exacerbate the energy crisis. Denying this isn't "dissent". It's something else which is plainly apparent.

When most people stop drinking the cool aid propaganda published essentially by the government (which has lied to them time and time again, pressing for lockdowns and whatever else) and realise that Russia can do us incalculable and permanent damage to us - IF it wants to. I wonder what their reaction will be? Too late to put the Genie back in the bottle.

Putin is reaching the point at which he has nothing left to lose. He has only been using oil and gas prices as a punishment for Europe. If he decides to escalate it what risks does he have? The same risks as if he does nothing. Can I ask again. Why are we doing this? It certainly isn't for humanitarian reasons.

 

[brad465]

Alleged reports, I would add.

Yes Visegrad24 are a useful source of info but they do tend to jump on rumours and treat them as facts.

They're the best source I can find at the moment, plenty of other tweets exist and some news articles for sites I'd not heard of. If it's genuine I suspect something more substantial will be reported by this evening or early tomorrow.

 

[43096]

When most people stop drinking the cool aid propaganda published essentially by the government (which has lied to them time and time again, pressing for lockdowns and whatever else) and realise that Russia can do us incalculable and permanent damage to us - IF it wants to. I wonder what their reaction will be? Too late to put the Genie back in the bottle.

Putin is reaching the point at which he has nothing left to lose. He has only been using oil and gas prices as a punishment for Europe. If he decides to escalate it what risks does he have? The same risks as if he does nothing. Can I ask again. Why are we doing this? It certainly isn't for humanitarian reasons.

What’s your alternative? Let Putin carry on?

I think you need a history lesson. Go back to 1938 and the Austrian Anschluss and start from there. As a clue, then do parallels with the annexation of Crimea.

 

[Parjon]

When most people stop drinking the cool aid propaganda published essentially by the government (which has lied to them time and time again, pressing for lockdowns and whatever else)...

I did write a response regarding NordStream attack yesterday but for some reason it's hidden away awaiting moderation?

Dunno. Maybe the forum has got a clever AI feature now that pre-emptively deactivates clap trap.

Here's a mind-bender. Regarding individuals that actively encourage others to distrust their democratically elected, newspaper hounded governments. Including cooking up astonishingly outlandish conspiracies about hundreds of thousands of people in the health service being part of a conspiracy. About COVID not being real or serious (even in the faces of bereaved people). About government's that can change every 4 or 5 years having secret, far reaching control agendas, and having absolute control over the media.

Why those individuals will believe and promote all that, but seemingly push the agenda and lies of a dictatorship as fact. As if all of the former is perfectly credible, but the notion of a murderous, nation invading, total media controlling, smelly bond-villain-wannabe blowing up his own pipeline would be a conspiracy beyond the pale.

It is notable that the same modus above is exactly what the Russian population has been subjected to for at least a decade. A flood of utter contradictory nonsense, changing from moment to moment, desensitizing them to the truth and preparing them for this great rupture.

So. Are you being paid? Or do you just need some cool aid/medication?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 May 2023 ==

They're the best source I can find at the moment, plenty of other tweets exist and some news articles for sites I'd not heard of. If it's genuine I suspect something more substantial will be reported by this evening or early tomorrow.

Emerging news on Twitter hasn't been reliable for many a year, so if that's the only source I'd suspect Russian disinformation. False flag. While I'm sure there are Russian renegades deploring what is going on, Ukraine would not "cross the border" to take territory. The Russian government has form however for murdering its own citizens.

 

[Killingworth]

They're the best source I can find at the moment, plenty of other tweets exist and some news articles for sites I'd not heard of. If it's genuine I suspect something more substantial will be reported by this evening or early tomorrow.

Same report on Daily Express website, the one that used to claim Putin had been humiliated every other day, if not twice a day. Wishful thinking needing more corroboration. Possible temporary occupation of a few villages may mean anything or nothing.

 

[357]

It's amusing to think that we have potentially gone from "Kyiv will fall in three days" to "Belgorod holds"

 

[brad465]

Emerging news on Twitter hasn't been reliable for many a year, so if that's the only source I'd suspect Russian disinformation. False flag. While I'm sure there are Russian renegades deploring what is going on, Ukraine would not "cross the border" to take territory. The Russian government has form however for murdering its own citizens.

These claims are not even suggesting this, they are claiming these are Russians fighting for Ukraine. They may have crossed the border, but not as Ukrainian nationals.

 

[Cloud Strife]

and realise that Russia can do us incalculable and permanent damage to us - IF it wants to.

Those of us living far closer to the Russian border know that there's little to no risk of it. Russian military doctrine is that nuclear weapons are only to be used in the event of a threat to the existence to the Russian Federation, which de facto means the fall of Moscow and possibly St Petersburg.

More to the point, the Russian military leadership know that their families are finished if they set off a nuclear bomb for the purposes of attack. Do you really think Ukraine doesn't have insurance policies in Moscow? They nuke Ukraine, and their families are as good as dead.

Putin is reaching the point at which he has nothing left to lose. He has only been using oil and gas prices as a punishment for Europe. If he decides to escalate it what risks does he have? The same risks as if he does nothing. Can I ask again. Why are we doing this? It certainly isn't for humanitarian reasons.

I suggest that it's a good idea to turn off the Russian apologist information sources.

Putin might have nothing left to lose. The others have a lot to lose, including not having a country or family because they've just been responsible for wiping out Moscow and St Petersburg. There is no guarantee that the Russian nuclear arsenal even works, and the Russian military leadership knows this. Putin can escalate it, but it doesn't mean that he will get agreement from anyone else. Even if he does escalate it, what does he escalate? More missile attacks on Ukraine? That means they'll have nothing left to defend themselves and their energy resources against China, who would dearly love to get their hands on Siberia.

Yes Visegrad24 are a useful source of info but they do tend to jump on rumours and treat them as facts.

Visegrad24 are notorious for making up stuff. There's a very good news article here (in Polish) about them: I highly recommend translating it to get an idea of who and what is behind it.

Visegrad24 - zwolennicy Trumpa blisko polskiego MSZ. Odkrywamy tajemnicę anonimowego konta!

Konto Visegrad24 oficjalnie tworzy anonimowa „grupa konserwatywnych przyjaciół”. Ustaliliśmy, kto należy do tej grupy.

oko.press

It's turning into a WW1 Western Front scenario where Bakhmut was seen by both sides like Verdun. Ukraine's best hope is Russian internal collapse, be it by large scale mutiny at the front or by political infighting in Moscow leading to diversion of troops to support rival factions. A bit like the Eastern front in 1917! No doubt both sides are well aware of that precedent

My view of the matter is that Ukraine is trying to create a situation where Russia goes into defence mode across the whole front line. That would let them hit targets at will with various weapons without having to worry about a sudden attack, and they can push forward if/when the opportunity presents itself.

The question is whether Russia really has the forces to defend such a long front line. I've seen comments that Russia has an estimated 200,000 in the occupied areas, which probably isn't enough to hold on. Given that the very best military minds in NATO will be helping the Ukrainians, it seems that Ukraine's best hope will be to launch an attack which allows them to sever the landbridge to Crimea. Once they do that, the Kerch Bridge is an obvious target, which puts Russia in a very difficult situation.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 May 2023 ==

They're the best source I can find at the moment, plenty of other tweets exist and some news articles for sites I'd not heard of. If it's genuine I suspect something more substantial will be reported by this evening or early tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports is a excellent source for news.

But all things considered, even if this is just a small operation, the propaganda value to Ukraine is incredible. The panic is rising every day, and what Ukraine is clearly doing is unsettling Russia and Russians.

I'd also point out that the Ukrainian narrative right now, which is surrender or die, is incredibly damaging to the Russian morale.

 

[coppercapped]

I’m not an expert so I’m happy to be corrected, but this is the situation as I understand it.

Netherlands

They’ve already sold the majority of their fleet, but could potentially supply a small number.

Denmark

Still a considerable way off introducing F-35s so whilst they could, someone would need to provide air cover for them in the meantime (not impossible).

Belgium

Again are still some way off introducing F-35s and only have a small number of operational F-16s. Seemingly they’re keeping flying hours down on them as they’ve been worked very hard.

Again, if any of the above is inaccurate please feel free to correct me; this is only what I’ve picked up from various online articles over the last few months.

The Polish Air Force flies F16s of the C and D models, they have about 50. Some may already be in Ukraine.

 

[brad465]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports is a excellent source for news.

But all things considered, even if this is just a small operation, the propaganda value to Ukraine is incredible. The panic is rising every day, and what Ukraine is clearly doing is unsettling Russia and Russians.

I'd also point out that the Ukrainian narrative right now, which is surrender or die, is incredibly damaging to the Russian morale.

Thank you for this.

There is now a BBC report on the whole thing, where they report the local Governor in Belgorod has said "saboteurs" crossed the border:

Ukraine war: Russia battles armed group in border region

Ukraine denies involvement and says Russian paramilitary groups are responsible for the incursion.

www.bbc.co.uk

A group of saboteurs has crossed from Ukraine into Russia's Belgorod region, with resulting clashes injuring several people, the Russian authorities say.
Local governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said Russian forces were searching for the group, which he said had attacked Grayvoronsky district by the border.
Vladimir Putin's spokesman said the Russian president had been informed.
Ukraine denies responsibility and said Russian citizens from two paramilitary groups were behind the attack.
Mr Gladkov said six people had been injured, including two people admitted to hospital after the village of Glotovo was shelled and three people who had suffered shrapnel wounds in the town of Grayvoron.
Fighting had also damaged three houses and a local administrative building, he said.
The governor later announced a "counter-terrorist operation" had been launched in the region, giving special powers to the authorities including on identity checks and communications surveillance.
BBC Verify has been verifying footage from the Belgorod region that emerged on social media earlier on Monday.
So far, the team has located a video apparently filmed from a drone that features several armoured vehicles near a border checkpoint south of Belgorod. Additionally, BBC Verify has geolocated footage of helicopters operating in the region.
The footage is recent, but it is hard to say for certain from the videos what the exact sequence of events is.
Kyiv said those behind the ongoing incident were from groups called the Liberty of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC).
The Liberty of Russia Legion - a Ukraine-based Russian militia which says it is working inside Russia to overthrow President Putin - said on Twitter on Monday it had "completely liberated" the border town of Kozinka. It said forward units had reached the town of Grayvoron, further east.
However Mr Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian news agencies that efforts were underway to eliminate the sabotage group, and said its purpose was to draw attention away from the eastern Ukrainian town of Bakhmut - which a Russian mercenary group claims to have taken control of after months of intense and bloody fighting.
"We perfectly understand the purpose of such sabotage - to divert attention from the Bakhmut direction, to minimise the political effect of the loss of Artemovsk [Bakhmut] by the Ukrainian side," he said.

 

[Falcon1200]

Can I ask again. Why are we doing this?

What message would doing nothing, and therefore allowing a megalomaniac despot to do anything he desired, send? And what do you think the current status of say Taiwan would be had the West stood idly by?

We are doing this because there comes a point where action becomes unavoidable.

 

[Parjon]

Thank you for this.

There is now a BBC report on the whole thing, where they report the local Governor in Belgorod has said "saboteurs" crossed the border:

Ukraine war: Russia battles armed group in border region

Ukraine denies involvement and says Russian paramilitary groups are responsible for the incursion.

www.bbc.co.uk

The words of any Russian official are, however, now known to be pure meaningless junk being that they lie as a matter of course.

 

[Cloud Strife]

The Polish Air Force flies F16s of the C and D models, they have about 50. Some may already be in Ukraine.

Highly unlikely. Public opinion here wouldn't support transferring them to Ukraine, because they have a somewhat mythical position in society. If we were to get F-35s from the US to replace them, then yes.

Thank you for this.

My pleasure. There's that account, and I also quite like https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3 from a military point of view. https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko also does a great job as a defence correspondent, and https://www.facebook.com/stefan.korshak posts incredible updates with top level military analysis.

It seems clear that something is going on in/around Belgorod, and even if it gets crushed quickly, it's still *something* that has happened.

The jury is out on exactly what this is, but part of me suspects that it might well be a small Russian force that was equipped by Ukraine. This will force the ridiculous situation of Russia fortifying the state border against attack from Ukraine, which will tie up even more badly needed resources.

 

[ainsworth74]

Visegrad24 are notorious for making up stuff. There's a very good news article here (in Polish) about them: I highly recommend translating it to get an idea of who and what is behind it.

Interesting, I've always treated them with a bit of suspicion but that's somewhat more shady than I expected!

 

[nanstallon]

That I'm really concerned we're dancing on the end of a pin which will lead to nuclear war. We're involved in blowing up Nordstream pipelines, bridges into Crimea, now we're increasingly arming one side in a conflict with armaments superior to the other. None of those actions are the behaviour of a humanitarian. This is some silly game intending to give Putin a bloody nose and could backfire spectacularly, gravely and permanently. Yet where are the grown ups in Western Democracies asking, what on Earth are we doing? There is no balance again from media and no interrogation of our policy. It's Covid all over again.

There is nothing long term to be gained from siding with the bully. The lesson that every little boy needs to learn in the school playground!

 

[Cloud Strife]

Stefan Korshak has just posted a fantastic update about what is going on today in Russia. The usual Medium link hasn't appeared yet, but here's the link to the post: https://www.facebook.com/stefan.kor...m6oNvVSRCcz3PA9bKUYn8cEoTUaAGyvybKS8WX1NDpJel

This morning a group of about 50-100 armed men, who later described themselves as members of the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Russian Legion, crossed from Ukraine into Russia. Those that drove into Russia were riding in light vehicles and reports seem to agree that they shot up a Russian border station and grabbed three villages inside Russia, the most distant - a place called Grayvoron - and in some places there were firefights. The deepest penetration into Russian territory seems to be about 4.3 km.

The post is much longer, but the general idea is that Ukraine may just have pulled a masterstroke here. What has to worry Russia is that they simply walked in through the Russian border crossing without seemingly much/any resistance, and Russia doesn't seem to have been able to respond quickly at all. It's very obvious that it's a diversion, but it also suggests that the Russians have neglected their border defences.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 May 2023 ==

How do you know it's claptrap if you haven't read it? Someone so closed minded to other points of view has no right to criticise anyone for their views.

I wasn't aware that doing the right thing by helping Ukraine defend itself was a point of view.

 

[Parjon]

How do you know it's claptrap if you haven't read it? Someone so closed minded to other points of view has no right to criticise anyone for their views.

1. You earlier repeated the lie that we were "involved" in blowing up NordStream. When we all know it was the Russians themselves. 2. Suggesting that we were involved is a "view" rather than a case of truth or lie rather marks you out. 3. Believing yourself to have the authority to deny another their voice somewhat further.

 

[Darandio]

How do you know it's claptrap if you haven't read it? Someone so closed minded to other points of view has no right to criticise anyone for their views.

With your line of discussion and the name 'neuralnet' it's clear you are an early form of Russian artificial intelligence sent to infiltrate Western discussion forums. Do I win some Roubles for rumbling you?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

How do you know it's claptrap if you haven't read it? Someone so closed minded to other points of view has no right to criticise anyone for their views.

If someone directed you to a link to a report about how the World is really flat, would you really have to read it in full to know that it's going to be claptrap?

 

[Herefordian]

How do you know it's claptrap if you haven't read it? Someone so closed minded to other points of view has no right to criticise anyone for their views.

It isn't about being close minded about alternate opinions.

The issue is you haven't presented any evidence to support your claims.

 

[Killingworth]

I have a terrible confession to make. Despite reading as much as I can find I am not convinced that the Russians, Americans, British, Germans, Ukrainians, Poles, Swedes or Danes blew up the Nordstream pipelines. I have a good idea of the nations in this list that did not, but don't totally discount participation by citizens of any of them. I continue to keep an open mind.

I say this after many decades on this earth during which I've found that opinions formed close to an event are quite often based on incomplete information, deliberately misused information, and/or totally false information manufactured to favour an agenda. They can be totally wrong. Come back in 5 years and we may be more certain of all the details, but it may have to be 10 or 25 before enough who really know talk. In the meantime shreds of sound evidence will emerge as well as off putting chaff.

For now let's be happy that we can air contrary views, I can certainly change my mind if I see strong enough evidence, but there's a much higher chance if it's politely well reasoned.

 

[Parjon]

I say this after many decades on this earth [...]
For now let's be happy that we can air contrary views, I can certainly change my mind if I see strong enough evidence, but there's a much higher chance if it's politely well reasoned.

I also have many years experience on this earth. Not questioning your sincerity, but offering a caution should anyone posting Russian disinformation approach you: Sincerity and desire for balance are seen as a weakness and an opportunity, and they will seek to exploit that.

 

[Killingworth]

I also have many years experience on this earth. Not questioning your sincerity, but offering a caution should anyone posting Russian disinformation approach you: Sincerity and desire for balance are seen as a weakness and an opportunity, and they will seek to exploit that.

Not sure what you're disagreeing with in my post. Just as long as we understand that the first casualty in war is truth. I'm old enough to recall the developing Suez crisis. What we were fed at the time was part of tbe story but it looks very different now. Similar for the Falklands, but we digress.

Disinformation today comes in many forms, both deliberate by and on behalf of states, and exagerated but seemingly convincing wishful thinking.by individuals often with an agenda.

Modern electronic communication gives wishful.thinkers a lot to play with and the gullible to soak up.. Meanwhile the citizens of both Ukraine and Russia need a lasting peaceful solution and that looks a long way off.

Question everything, not just when it doesn't look right. Bluff and double bluff?

 

[Sm5]

I have a terrible confession to make. Despite reading as much as I can find I am not convinced that the Russians, Americans, British, Germans, Ukrainians, Poles, Swedes or Danes blew up the Nordstream pipelines. I have a good idea of the nations in this list that did not, but don't totally discount participation by citizens of any of them. I continue to keep an open mind.

I say this after many decades on this earth during which I've found that opinions formed close to an event are quite often based on incomplete information, deliberately misused information, and/or totally false information manufactured to favour an agenda. They can be totally wrong. Come back in 5 years and we may be more certain of all the details, but it may have to be 10 or 25 before enough who really know talk. In the meantime shreds of sound evidence will emerge as well as off putting chaff.

For now let's be happy that we can air contrary views, I can certainly change my mind if I see strong enough evidence, but there's a much higher chance if it's politely well reasoned.

The Klingons blew it up, its well known.

 

[najaB]

The Klingons blew it up, its well known.

Much more likely the Romulans.

 

[Annetts key]

Much more likely the Romulans.

Nah, it was some Ferengi looking to increase their profits from their stash of LNG…

 

[edwin_m]

Nah, it was some Ferengi looking to increase their profits from their stash of LNG…

I blame the Vogons.

 

[Mogster]

I’m not an expert so I’m happy to be corrected, but this is the situation as I understand it.

Netherlands

They’ve already sold the majority of their fleet, but could potentially supply a small number.

Denmark

Still a considerable way off introducing F-35s so whilst they could, someone would need to provide air cover for them in the meantime (not impossible).

Belgium

Again are still some way off introducing F-35s and only have a small number of operational F-16s. Seemingly they’re keeping flying hours down on them as they’ve been worked very hard.

Again, if any of the above is inaccurate please feel free to correct me; this is only what I’ve picked up from various online articles over the last few months.

It’s being reported that the sale of Dutch and Norwegian F-16s to Draken International has been cancelled. How many flyable aircraft that would mean is anyone’s guess. Poland has F-16s but probably won’t give them up, Romania, Bulgaria have received hand me down F-16s recently. Could some of those be transferred to Ukraine and replaced by new builds? Although it seems LM can’t build F-16s and F-35s fast enough and has large backlogs of orders… It’s an I’ll wind…

There are F-16s all over the place, hundreds in the Middle East, although it seems unlikely their owners would want to annoy Russia to this extent. Israel and Egypt have already refused transfer of military hardware to Ukraine. As with the tanks if there’s confirmed supply from Europe then the US may have a change of heart and send some.

Pilot conversion training is being suggested as taking 3 months. However you can fly a pretty much fully featured 10 year old F16C in DCS flight simulator, so there’s nothing to stop them being aware of the basics already.

If the pilots are are as focused and motivated as the guys who have been sent for military training outside Ukraine already are reported to have been, then it may take less time I suppose.

 

[Strathclyder]

When most people stop drinking the cool aid propaganda published essentially by the government (which has lied to them time and time again, pressing for lockdowns and whatever else) and realise that Russia can do us incalculable and permanent damage to us - IF it wants to. I wonder what their reaction will be? Too late to put the Genie back in the bottle.

I honestly think you should take your own advice here.

Am not usually one to quote TV shows in threads like this one, but this one from the HBO Chernobyl mini-series is quite pertinent to the discussion (in more ways than one) and it's one that runs through my head whenever I happen to click back into this thread and see posts like this:

What is the cost of lies? It's not that we'll mistake them for the truth. The real danger is that if we hear enough lies, we no longer recognise the truth at all.

A deft summarization of the Russian propaganda machine imo. The worst aspects of our national press too, come to think of it.

Putin is reaching the point at which he has nothing left to lose. He has only been using oil and gas prices as a punishment for Europe. If he decides to escalate it what risks does he have? The same risks as if he does nothing. Can I ask again. Why are we doing this? It certainly isn't for humanitarian reasons.

The alternatives to what the West has been doing would be either sitting back and doing nothing and/or appeasing a despot who's been doing his level best to wipe out a sovereign nation and it's citizens, whose mere existence is somehow an affront to his warped world-view. Not sure which is worse in all honesty, and history has numerous examples showcasing the utterly disastrous consequences of both.

Responding like we have also sends a clear message that any further motions towards such despotic land-grabs won't be ignored.

 

[birchesgreen]

Putin has plenty left to lose. He is one of the richest men in the world, i suspect he'd rather stay alive to enjoy his various dachas than get some 9mm air conditioning for his skull.