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You clearly don’t understand how select committees or the National Audit Office operate. They aren’t there to fact check ministers’ statements (luckily for Grant Shapps).
So you don’t think more detailed stats should be released, because they don’t mean anything without additional info, and checks and balances are in place. So basically we should all just shut up and blindly trust whatever the government tells us.
Yet you have nothing to say about a government minister lying in public, and being contradicted by stats already in the public domain.
I've now had the chance to see the Sky interview. Thanks to those who made it possible. I am not an aficionado of wide-ranging political interviews with SoS/Ministers who are inevitably not well informed about other subjects even if they are in the Cabinet. It is inevitably going to create a high risk of incorrect or out-of-date statistics being quoted in any area even without an intention to mislead. Grant Shapps hasn't been Transport Secretary for over eight months. (The same would apply to asking a Shadow SoS for Energy and Net Zero about transport policy or whatever.)
Earlier, I mentioned that scrapping current Anytime fares but not offering advances on those services would shift some leisure traffic onto the lightly-loaded earlier services resulting in a revenue pick-up in that sector.
What’s really needed is full flexibility of single leg pricing. UK rail has never exploited the power of algorithms to maximise revenue.
It will depend on how much of the remaining business travel overlaps with commuter - ie has to take place at traditional “peak” times, and for which demand is more price inelastic. Presumably most of the business travel that could shift to off peak has already done so. Obviously this is the kind of number crunching that the economic advisors, analysts etc. that @Bald Rick mentioned earlier are charged with.
In my experience the regular ‘has to’ traffic has dropped significantly. Almost all trips using Anytime are now ad hoc with many travellers preferring a cheaper outward advance the previous evening and a hotel, which was not always an option until the fare price gap widened to where we are today. There’s an opportunity to increase some of that advance revenue to something like the current off-peak by ending the current Anytime fares.
My whole career has been spent pricing business to maximise revenue and margin. Not rail fares but not dissimilar.
Right, so you think that every time some politician says something you will have the time and expertise to trawl through endless current data to determine if they are wrong or deliberately lying? You must have an awful lot of spare time to fill.
Fortunately the railway employs some very capable economists, demand analysis and pricing specialist who know the reality, and therefore don’t need to worry about belief systems.
Yes, we do need to worry about belief systems holding the sector together which seem to be totally awry.
The political overlords apparently do not have faith enough in these competent mandarins to allow them free rein to maximise revenue with marketing and fares policy.
The frontline staff on the other hand clearly have no belief in the politicians to compensate them fairly for their labour, hence industrial action.
Looking at footfall figures on Wiki before and after COVID for Yarmouth, Sheringham, Cromer, Bury St Edmunds, Newmarket I can't see any evidence of it, only Cromer and Sheringham are slightly above and other are much lower.
Stations along the Bittern line are one example, the Felixstowe branch is another. Many stations have bounced back strongly, in many cases exceeding historical passenger numbers.
I am not an aficionado of wide-ranging political interviews with SoS/Ministers who are inevitably not well informed about other subjects even if they are in the Cabinet. It is inevitably going to create a high risk of incorrect or out-of-date statistics being quoted in any area even without an intention to mislead.
But he specifically said 40% haven’t come back, “as yet”. No reference to the fact he hasn’t been in post for eight months. He also misleadingly cited ASLEF’s salary stats. That was entirely deliberate and, as usual, aimed at Daily Mail types who will harumph about overpaid train drivers.
You appear to be suggesting that when government ministers cite demonstrably false statistics to support their own records in previous cabinet positions, we should give them the benefit of the doubt and assume it was entirely accidental. With respect, that’s about as convincing as Meghan Markle saying she wants privacy, or Jeremy Corbyn saying he opposes anti semitism.
The latest data has journeys down 20%, pax km down 27% and revenue down 34% on 3 years ago.
Some of that is down to strikes and it is not the same as saying they have left, but revenue is easily down 40% on where it would have been had there not been COVID or strikes.
Nice try at obfuscation (and you evidently still don’t understand that the primary purpose of the railway is not to raise revenue, but to facilitate economic growth through transporting passengers).
None of this is relevant because the statement was that 40% of passengers haven't returned now, in May 2023. That is both incorrect and highly misleading.
For those on this forum who defend the Governments position on cuts, will they continue to do so in the knowledge that it is having to resort to outright lies to justify them.
A minister will lie on television, and certain posters here will go to any lengths to minimise it by trying to suggest it was an error, or by posting irrelevant information to distract from it. The bias is quite extraordinary.
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In my experience the regular ‘has to’ traffic has dropped significantly. Almost all trips using Anytime are now ad hoc with many travellers preferring a cheaper outward advance the previous evening and a hotel, which was not always an option until the fare price gap widened to where we are today. There’s an opportunity to increase some of that advance revenue to something like the current off-peak by ending the current Anytime fares.
My whole career has been spent pricing business to maximise revenue and margin. Not rail fares but not dissimilar.
Well the hope is that that is being done in the most sensible way. However, as we have seen, the DfT has been reluctant to allow widespread fares reform, have prolonged industrial disputes, and have been quick to insist on arbitrary 10% budget cuts, despite rising passenger numbers, so their approach appears to be of the ideological “scorched earth” variety, rather than rooted in any logic.
The old fleet was too small (there were literally not enough units to operate the service reliable)
The trains were too small
Some of the trains were very expensive (2x cl37 + MkII)
There were too many different types (153, 156, 170, 2x cl37 + MkII)
There's also 90 mph sections on the branch lines, and they need 100 mph for mainline work.
All of those were replaced with a single fleet of higher capacity trains that have traction knowledge compatibility and maintenance commonality with the IC fleet, and is future proofed for full or partial electrification of the branch lines (or cascades), and can be used to substitute for the IC fleet if necessary. It also offers level boarding. tbh, I think that was a very good call to buy these
This snippet from 'The Australian' (that must be reported in far more detail in the UK) is a few grams of much needed positivity, and indirectly helpful for rail passenger numbers:
UK economy to grow, not contract: IMF
The IMF has delivered a major U-turn on its forecast for the UK economy, saying it expected growth this year just one month after predicting a contraction.
Britain’s economy is expected to expand 0.4 per cent in 2023, the International Monetary Fund said in its latest outlook document which partly cited weaker energy prices.
The IMF ripped up its previous forecast in April for a 0.3-per cent contraction. Addressing a London press conference, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva defended the U-turn. She said it had been sparked by falling energy prices, easing concerns over Brexit and improving financial stability following recent UK political turmoil and US banking-sector woes.
This snippet from 'The Australian' (that must be reported in far more detail in the UK) is a few grams of much needed positivity, and indirectly helpful for rail passenger numbers:
UK economy to grow, not contract: IMF
The IMF has delivered a major U-turn on its forecast for the UK economy, saying it expected growth this year just one month after predicting a contraction.
Britain’s economy is expected to expand 0.4 per cent in 2023, the International Monetary Fund said in its latest outlook document which partly cited weaker energy prices.
The IMF ripped up its previous forecast in April for a 0.3-per cent contraction. Addressing a London press conference, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva defended the U-turn. She said it had been sparked by falling energy prices, easing concerns over Brexit and improving financial stability following recent UK political turmoil and US banking-sector woes.
Obviously there are always individuals who are genuinely poor, and at the other extreme are those who are extremely wealthy (in material terms).
In between, with the wide and varying circumstances of individuals and families, there can be a 'herd effect' if the media and other sources such as friends continually report or opine bad economic news. This can lead to groups such as self funded retirees who may be 'comfortably off' deciding individually (and en masse) they'll cut spending on outings, other travel or discretionary shopping.
I am delighted for the UK if slowly, the economy is regaining at least a small head of steam. How we convince governments railways are a vital contributor to this sudden positivity (and hence despite Treasury's views ought not be cut further operationally, and perhaps some deficiencies fixed) is the more difficult question.
Despite strikes (a worry as I'll be in UK in a few months), I won't be surprised if official passenger figures to be released in November 2023 are better than many in government think, even after stripping out the Elizabeth Line effect.
In the last few days, Network Rail has published its CP7 strategy, and the assumptions to agree to DfT tool are worth repeating here for this discussion
Passenger demand (numbers of people) is as follows vs. pre-pandemic values (2019/20): 2023/24 = 90%, 2024/25 = 89%, 2025/26 =91%, 2026/27 = 91%, 2027/28 = 95%, 2028/29 = 95%.
This forecast is based on the ‘medium-minus’ projection from DfT’s Covid Forecasting Tool v18.2, which was released at the end of May 2022 • Passenger train miles to increase by 5%, freight growth increase in line with projections (6.9% tonne miles Wales & Western).
In the last few days, Network Rail has published its CP7 strategy, and the assumptions to agree to DfT tool are worth repeating here for this discussion
Taken from page 84 of Wales and Western CP7 Strategy
A total of 369 million rail passenger journeys were made in Great Britain in the latest quarter (1 October to 31 December 2022). This is 80% of the 461 million journeys in the same quarter three years ago (pre-pandemic).
If we were at 80% six months ago, expecting 90% doesn’t seem far-fetched.
The scary bit must be that revenue is only at 66% when adjusted for inflation.
If we were at 80% six months ago, expecting 90% doesn’t seem far-fetched.
The scary bit must be that revenue is only at 66% when adjusted for inflation.
But revenue/profit for everything will have taken a large hit due to inflation.
Except for the vast majority of public services that don't even generate revenue to begin with - they'll just see massively increased costs (just sayin !).
In the last few days, Network Rail has published its CP7 strategy, and the assumptions to agree to DfT tool are worth repeating here for this discussion
Taken from page 84 of Wales and Western CP7 Strategy
But if we cut enough services we can limit it to 90%...
In all honesty though, this will greatly depend on the economy but seems realistic as teams calls and hybrid working isn't going away. I note 5% increase in passenger miles again is realistic as anecdotally with hybrid working people are working in jobs further away.
Despite strikes (a worry as I'll be in UK in a few months), I won't be surprised if official passenger figures to be released in November 2023 are better than many in government think, even after stripping out the Elizabeth Line effect.
In the last few days, Network Rail has published its CP7 strategy, and the assumptions to agree to DfT tool are worth repeating here for this discussion
Taken from page 84 of Wales and Western CP7 Strategy
Newly issued report from ORR
covers Jan-Mar, with tables comparing to 2019
Some Highlights :
Table 1.2, LNER 111%, Hull Trains 122% of 2019 journeys
Table 2.2 Northern 17%, GWR 15% longer journeys Km on average
Table 5.1 West Midlands operating 116% of 2019 Km
Lowlights :
Table 4.1 Transpennine only operating 58% of its 2019 services, Cross Country only 64%
Table 5.1 Chiltern only 67% of 2019 vehicle km
The tables clearly illustrate how some Operators seem to be doing lot better than others because they are all ranked, actually it is a postcode lottery depending on where you live.
Over 1000 passengers reported on yesterdays 12:03 Paddington to Penzance after departing Reading. The previous 11:03 Plymouth was full & standing before departure.
Over 1000 passengers reported on yesterdays 12:03 Paddington to Penzance after departing Reading. The previous 11:03 Plymouth was full & standing before departure.
Over 1000 passengers reported on yesterdays 12:03 Paddington to Penzance after departing Reading. The previous 11:03 Plymouth was full & standing before departure.
Over 1000 passengers reported on yesterdays 12:03 Paddington to Penzance after departing Reading. The previous 11:03 Plymouth was full & standing before departure.
I imagine this is somewhat expected for a summer Friday preceding a weekend with hot sunny weather. Demand for GWR long distance services does seem to be very seasonal.
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