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He does later confirm these figures are compared to pre-covid but not adjusted for inflation which in the last four years is approx 20% so 93% is going to be sub 80% in real terms, that matches other reported figures. He also mentions they are last weeks figures so may include all/some of the Coronation weekend which would part explain the Leisure and Business figures, if Business is really 38% in cash terms then heaven help us.
I don't understand why its so hard to get real terms revenue figures, they must be readily available to the industry/DfT but hardly ever do you see them published.
Before anyone says it wouldn’t work, remember that Anytime fares have not been regulated since privatisation whereas seasons and off-peak have. The difference is now too great, private TOCs pushed the Anytime increases too far and the pandemic has exposed this.
Agree with this, regular non-railcard discounted off peak fares are mostly already too expensive, Anytime is an absolute joke. You'd only ever pay it if there was no other choice.
I don't understand why its so hard to get real terms revenue figures, they must be readily available to the industry/DfT but hardly ever do you see them published.
a recent edition of the GBRTT revenue trends report that i think Gareth and other industry insiders have access to was posted on a thread a couple of months ago and a few hours later was deleted, presumably because it is private and someone wants to keep it that way. I suppose it could be considered commercially confidential and possibly even material non-public information from a listed company perspective (although latter seems unlikely, if it was this it would not be circulated so widely within the industry)
a recent edition of the GBRTT revenue trends report that i think Gareth and other industry insiders have access to was posted on a thread a couple of months ago and a few hours later was deleted, presumably because it is private and someone wants to keep it that way. I suppose it could be considered commercially confidential and possibly even material non-public information from a listed company perspective (although latter seems unlikely, if it was this it would not be circulated so widely within the industry)
The "commercially sensitive" argument was also weakened by the move to National Rail Contracts, and the increasing number of OLR/nationalised operations
The "commercially sensitive" argument was also weakened by the move to National Rail Contracts, and the increasing number of OLR/nationalised operations
Sort of disproved by the fact figures are periodically released by the ORR. Releasing weekly figures couldn't be argued as being in the public interest and would be almost meaningless to most people, partly due to reasons detailed above about how one specific week one year might not be directly comparable to the same week in another year. Periodic figures are far more meaningful because any weekly discrepancies are evened out.
Sort of disproved by the fact figures are periodically released by the ORR. Releasing weekly figures couldn't be argued as being in the public interest and would be almost meaningless to most people, partly due to reasons detailed above about how one specific week one year might not be directly comparable to the same week in another year. Periodic figures are far more meaningful because any weekly discrepancies are evened out.
The periodic figures from the ORR are a lot less detailed though, and released with a significant delay.
also, unfortunately very few journalist (particularly main-stream ones) seem to bother to look up the figures to be able to challenge nonsense spouted by ministers (though that is hardly the fault of the rail industry!)
For those on this forum who defend the Governments position on cuts, will they continue to do so in the knowledge that it is having to resort to outright lies to justify them.
There is a small group who actively want to the railway to get worse because it gives them an excuse to complain about it, and another (overlapping) group who dislike railstaff and unions more than they dislike the government.
I suspect the majority of forum members share the enormous frustration you and I feel at the current damaging approach.
Agree with this, regular non-railcard discounted off peak fares are mostly already too expensive, Anytime is an absolute joke. You'd only ever pay it if there was no other choice.
Not sure they can really be described as too expensive. There are some decent discounts available for advance and passenger numbers are booming for leisure travel (who will be overwhelmingly off peak). So people are prepared to pay the fares.
It would be better if ticketing reform was allowed - and might even boost revenue if it was done right - but the DfT seemingly won’t allow that.
I’d be very cautious about wanting these figures in the public domain
If enthusiasts can access this information then so will various “Taxpayer Alliance” style pressure groups, who’ll find some underperforming areas to turn public attention on
However “Social necessary” you might think things are, given the billions of pounds of subsidy required even before Covid destroyed the business/ commuter markets, it’d be a nice soft target to bash Unions/ Rail Wages/ Public Services/ Taxation if such information fell into the “wrong” hands
The periodic figures from the ORR are a lot less detailed though, and released with a significant delay.
also, unfortunately very few journalist (particularly main-stream ones) seem to bother to look up the figures to be able to challenge nonsense spouted by ministers (though that is hardly the fault of the rail industry!)
I know there is a lag. By definition periodic figures are going to have a time lag. You haven't even attempted to argue releasing weekly figures is in the public interest. Decisions on changes to rail services aren't made weekly, they are normally made twice yearly with the timetable change, and will be based on aggregated figures and trends. So I really don't understand why you think it is so important the government or industry release weekly figures.
However “Social necessary” you might think things are, given the billions of pounds of subsidy required even before Covid destroyed the business/ commuter markets, it’d be a nice soft target to bash Unions/ Rail Wages/ Public Services/ Taxation if such information fell into the “wrong” hands
I know there is a lag. By definition periodic figures are going to have a time lag. You haven't even attempted to argue releasing weekly figures is in the public interest. Decisions on changes to rail services aren't made weekly, they are normally made twice yearly with the timetable change, and will be based on aggregated figures and trends. So I really don't understand why you think it is so important the government or industry release weekly figures.
I don't think weekly figures are the most useful, but monthly or quarterly releases of ridership and revenue would be useful, and should be released relatively shortly after the relevant period has finished. The main split out I think is useful is by category (London commuter, IC and regional), by purpose (business/commuting/leisure) and by TOC. While the final one is available, as far as I'm aware the first and second aren't released at all
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This is one of the reasons we need access to figures. Challenging these lies with actual data is much more convincing to the general public than simply saying that they are obviously lying (and Grant Shapps is obviously lying)
Not sure they can really be described as too expensive. There are some decent discounts available for advance and passenger numbers are booming for leisure travel (who will be overwhelmingly off peak). So people are prepared to pay the fares
Off peak, if you are on your own, maybe not. Anytimes are crazy prices though, ask literally anyone if people think they are good value and I'll be amazed if anyone said yes. My anytime return for work is now £72, up from £65 18 months ago, no advances available. With the recent falls in fuel prices the equivalent fuel+Dartford toll return is about £40. Work are now paying for me to get there so I'll use the train when it's running, but it's hard to argue that's good value for money. Off peak with railcard it's actually cheaper than fuel+tolls.
Exactly this - the days of paying £300 or whatever for an open ticket to London just to attend a meeting are over. And that is a massive hole in the revenue stream for a TOC.
And some like GWR might have lost business travel, but gained leisure travel. So their problem is now wrong type of trains (sorry to paraphrase old excuse), or more strictly wrong mix of trains. An IET is not good choice for a Bristol-Weymouth local etc.
Of course it now puts pressure on Network Rail to move engineering works to business hours rather than weekends, but that discussion is probably better in another thread.
Off peak, if you are on your own, maybe not. Anytimes are crazy prices though, ask literally anyone if people think they are good value and I'll be amazed if anyone said yes. My anytime return for work is now £72, up from £65 18 months ago, no advances available. With the recent falls in fuel prices the equivalent fuel+Dartford toll return is about £40. Work are now paying for me to get there so I'll use the train when it's running, but it's hard to argue that's good value for money. Off peak with railcard it's actually cheaper than fuel+tolls.
I guess you’re in the slightly unusual position of commuting through London
and out the other side, rather than into it, which won’t help with the costs. This is where reform would be desirable - albeit that might well involve removing peak fares and hiking all off peak fares.
Good that work are paying! Perhaps that puts you into the “business travel”
category, rather than commuter.
I guess you’re in the slightly unusual position of commuting through London
and out the other side, rather than into it, which won’t help with the costs. This is where reform would be desirable - albeit that might well involve removing peak fares and hiking all off peak fares.
Good that work are paying! Perhaps that puts you into the “business travel”
category, rather than commuter.
Yes, I probably do. I think they have reclassified me as a remote worker and my trips to the office constitute a business trip, they'll only do this for people who live 75 miles away or more. The company now has a policy of every team going in once a week at least, but introduced this policy to make it more fair to those hired during the pandemic on a remote basis. Even then the policy is you must make it as cheap as practicable "as if it was your own money", using advance fares, split tickets etc even for execs. The days of luxurious expensed business travel are long gone I think.
How do you know they were travelling the whole way? Even then, one or two people seen doesn't negate the overall trend of a huge drop-off from this sort of travel.
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With Anytime business revenue at just 38%, scrapping current Anytime fares is where the revenue opportunity lies. Face-to-face meetings are much more productive than Teams and businesses will pay to get people together providing the cost is reasonable. This would redistribute volume to what are now under-utilised peak long-distance trains.
Some leisure trips would also shift to earlier services (even without cheaper advance fares) leading to a revenue pickup in that market.
Before anyone says it wouldn’t work, remember that Anytime fares have not been regulated since privatisation whereas seasons and off-peak have. The difference is now too great, private TOCs pushed the Anytime increases too far and the pandemic has exposed this.
Teams does have a role, it’s a great tool for many meetings and I use it every day, but businesses that remove face-to-face meetings altogether will fail.
Yes there's definitely merit in certain locations to remove anytime restrictions, but I wouldn't say it is everywhere. Or allowing Advances to be sold where traditionally they would not have been pre-Covid.
Rail engineer Gareth Dennis is quoting the following figures on revenue (not ridership) on Twitter this morning.
TOTAL REVENUE RECOVERY: 93%
BY SECTOR
London & SE: 94%
Long distance: 88%
Regional: 97%
BY PURPOSE
Commute: 86%
Leisure: 117%
Business: 38%
Intra-London: 105%
It's not clear whether this is real (i.e. adjusted for inflation) or nominal (£ values, obviously a 2023 £ is worth less than a 2019/20 £).
He didn't cite a reference, but he's followed by a lot of railway people and nobody appears to be contradicting him.
Anyone who thinks train fares aren't too expensive don't know the reality - the amount of people that would travel by train all the time but don't often because of the price is ridiculous, and that's just from personal experience.
I fully believe if all off-peak train fares were halved and time restrictions removed, with advance and anytime fares removed (both would be redundant with off peak tickets becoming anytime and advance fares having no advantage with cheaper open tickets), after a couple of weeks of promoting the cheaper fares, passenger figures would more than double and the railways would be making more money than they do now.
I don't understand why its so hard to get real terms revenue figures, they must be readily available to the industry/DfT but hardly ever do you see them published.
Fortunately the railway employs some very capable economists, demand analysis and pricing specialist who know the reality, and therefore don’t need to worry about belief systems.
Anyone who thinks train fares aren't too expensive don't know the reality - the amount of people that would travel by train all the time but don't often because of the price is ridiculous, and that's just from personal experience.
I fully believe if all off-peak train fares were halved and time restrictions removed, with advance and anytime fares removed (both would be redundant with off peak tickets becoming anytime and advance fares having no advantage with cheaper open tickets), after a couple of weeks of promoting the cheaper fares, passenger figures would more than double and the railways would be making more money than they do now.
This is one of the reasons we need access to figures. Challenging these lies with actual data is much more convincing to the general public than simply saying that they are obviously lying (and Grant Shapps is obviously lying)
I am absolutely not accusing you of lying but I will point out again your assertion that the figures show leisure travel is booming when they don't because they don't take inflation into consideration is a very good reason for all the figures not being released. I'm not naïve or foolish enough to believe every decision taken is correct or done for the right reasons but I would rather live in a world where decisions are made by professionals who have access to all the data than by random people on social media who often misunderstand, misrepresent or cherry pick data to suit themselves.
I'd imagine the real issue is costs. I only see heritage railway inflation but it's way, way above above cpi or rpi for the period 2019 to 2023. Obviously Mainline inflation is different but I'd suggest it also has to be way above the bank of England rates and calculator. Stuff like forward hedged energy costs must be running out by now. Even with revenue at 100% precovid plus cpi there would be a huge gap to fill.
I am absolutely not accusing you of lying but I will point out again your assertion that the figures show leisure travel is booming when they don't because they don't take inflation into consideration is a very good reason for all the figures not being released.
I think the only difference between us here is what we consider booming, which is fair enough. (one reason I think it should be considered as doing well is because ticket price increases have been below inflation, and there have been reports that average ticket prices have fallen, so in that context a revenue increase more or less matching inflation is doing well, specifically if you then consider the reduced timetables still in operation)
The point is though, a certain government minister has been lying about passenger numbers and revenue to justify cuts, and data is needed for those lies to be challenged, even when the lies are so outlandish as to be obvious lies.
I'm not naïve or foolish enough to believe every decision taken is correct or done for the right reasons but I would rather live in a world where decisions are made by professionals who have access to all the data than by random people on social media who often misunderstand, misrepresent or cherry pick.
I don't think I fully agree with you on this one, and that is as someone who could, on certain subjects (not the railway, note) be considered one of these professionals, and knows a lot more people who are.
By which I don't mean we should be ruled by twitter, but rather that is important to realise that professionals are also people who have views of how society should be, and those views influence decisions. concentrating power in too few people makes it too easy for certain groups to ignored or forgotten
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I'd imagine the real issue is costs. I only see heritage railway inflation but it's way, way above above cpi or rpi for the period 2019 to 2023. Obviously Mainline inflation is different but I'd suggest it also has to be way above the bank of England rates and calculator. Stuff like forward hedged energy costs must be running out by now. Even with revenue at 100% precovid plus cpi there would be a huge gap to fill.
Staff costs have gone up by less than inflation (even where pay deals have been agreed, they were below inflation), and that is a major cost, so I wouldn't be so sure about the average being above inflation
but I would rather live in a world where decisions are made by professionals who have access to all the data than by random people on social media who often misunderstand, misrepresent or cherry pick data to suit themselves.
So doesn't it bother you that decisions about the railway are being taken by politicians who lie about the data, and often misunderstand, misrepresent or cherrypick it to suit their agenda, just as Shapps did yesterday?
I'd imagine the real issue is costs. I only see heritage railway inflation but it's way, way above above cpi or rpi for the period 2019 to 2023. Obviously Mainline inflation is different but I'd suggest it also has to be way above the bank of England rates and calculator. Stuff like forward hedged energy costs must be running out by now. Even with revenue at 100% precovid plus cpi there would be a huge gap to fill.
Energy costs are a big issue. Inflation there was astronomical - as rail does not pay duty on diesel the impact of the rise in the wholesale price was very painful - it effectively doubled. Much was hedged - but much was not. However the wholesale price is now back to where it was at the start of 2022.
But, as we know, energy prices fed through to everything, particularly materials. Then we have rolling stock - leases are typically priced with RPI inflators.
And finally - all that new rolling stock is more expensive than what it replaced. It will be interesting to see how much the Anglia rolling stock lease bill has increased compared to 2019, whilst running essentially the same level of service.
I don't think I fully agree with you on this one, and that is as someone who could, on certain subjects (not the railway, note) be considered one of these professionals, and knows a lot more people who are.
By which I don't mean we should be ruled by twitter, but rather that is important to realise that professionals are also people who have views of how society should be, and those views influence decisions. concentrating power in too few people makes it too easy for certain groups to ignored or forgotten
I am neither doubting your knowledge or experience but you really don’t have to look that far back in history to understand my points about misunderstanding, misrepresenting and cherry picking data on social media. There were many professionals who did exactly that during Covid and just because somebody is a professional doesn’t mean they don’t have a specific agenda which they can selectively use data to further.
I am neither doubting your knowledge or experience but you really don’t have to look that far back in history to understand my points about misunderstanding, misrepresenting and cherry picking data on social media. There were many professionals who did exactly that during Covid and just because somebody is a professional doesn’t mean they don’t have a specific agenda which they can selectively use data to further.
I don't think weekly figures are the most useful, but monthly or quarterly releases of ridership and revenue would be useful, and should be released relatively shortly after the relevant period has finished. The main split out I think is useful is by category (London commuter, IC and regional), by purpose (business/commuting/leisure) and by TOC. While the final one is available, as far as I'm aware the first and second aren't released at all
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This is one of the reasons we need access to figures. Challenging these lies with actual data is much more convincing to the general public than simply saying that they are obviously lying (and Grant Shapps is obviously lying)
The point is though, a certain government minister has been lying about passenger numbers and revenue to justify cuts, and data is needed for those lies to be challenged, even when the lies are so outlandish as to be obvious lies.
So doesn't it bother you that decisions about the railway are being taken by politicians who lie about the data, and often misunderstand, misrepresent or cherrypick it to suit their agenda, just as Shapps did yesterday?
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